A Realistic Offseason

[mqr]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Even when he’s throwing 94 mph fastballs with a cutter for his newest pitch under Cooper? 

Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez both average >95 mph and didn't throw one single cutter. Stop pushing this like it's uniform fact. 

[Eminor3rd]

3 hours ago, mqr said:

Bruce has got to realize that spending 40-50 mil in FA and targeting Calhoun and Hamels are incongruous ideas, no?

That’s the problem — they aren’t really. Those guys are each gonna end up with AAV’s in the 15m range. Get those two and a reliever, and maybe a washed up 5th starter, and you’re looking at 40-50m

Edited November 12, 2019 by Eminor3rd

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

That’s the problem — it isn’t really. Those guys are each gonna end up with AAV’s in the 15m range. Get those two and a reliever, and maybe a washed up 5th starter, and you’re looking at 40-50m

Bruce also thinks Castellanos will get 5/100

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, mqr said:

Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez both average >95 mph and didn't throw one single cutter. Stop pushing this like it's uniform fact. 

It was tongue in cheek, but if you want to discuss Cooper’s ability to get the most out of power pitchers, I think he’s closer to how the Pirates coached up Cole opposed to what the Astros did with him.

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, mqr said:

Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez both average >95 mph and didn't throw one single cutter. Stop pushing this like it's uniform fact. 

Lopez averages 95 but Giolito averages 94. I expect Giolito's fastball to get faster as he gets more comfortable with his new delivery. 

Last winter he was rebuilding his delivery. This winter he can train to maximize it. 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

Just now, fathom said:

It was tongue in cheek, but if you want to discuss Cooper’s ability to get the most out of power pitchers, I think he’s closer to how the Pirates coached up Cole opposed to what the Astros did with him.

1. Then Wheeler's an equally bad idea.

2. Cole is a smart guy who doesn't seem likely to just forget what he learned from the Stros. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, fathom said:

It was tongue in cheek, but if you want to discuss Cooper’s ability to get the most out of power pitchers, I think he’s closer to how the Pirates coached up Cole opposed to what the Astros did with him.

Says what?

Sox got Giolito and you can give the credit to his high school coach, former dog walker or anyone else but the fact is the Sox executed his changes in action. They certainly have maximized giolitos arm talent. And while lopez has been inconsistent, no one can argue the sox are suppressing his stuff or limiting his arsenal based on organizational philosophies. The sox have done fine to maximize elite arms - the same cant be said for the pirates.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Lopez averages 95 but Giolito averages 94. I expect Giolito's fastball to get faster as he gets more comfortable with his new delivery. 

Last winter he was rebuilding his delivery. This winter he can train to maximize it. 

94.8 is pretty much 95 Jack. I wouldn't expect much velocity change next year.

Edited November 12, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[fathom]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

1. Then Wheeler's an equally bad idea.

2. Cole is a smart guy who doesn't seem likely to just forget what he learned from the Stros. 

I don’t think Wheeler is a great idea either. I actually strongly dislike all the starters after the main two. Give me Strasburg at 6/180 over giving Cole 8/280.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

94.8 is pretty much 95 Jack.

Did he really average 94.8? I thought it was 94.1. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Did he really average 94.8? I thought it was 94.1. 

94.6; after his first 4 starts he was at 94.8.

Edited November 12, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

I don’t think Wheeler is a great idea either. I actually strongly dislike all the starters after the main two. Give me Strasburg at 6/180 over giving Cole 8/280.

Even when he’s throwing 91 mph fastballs with a cutter for his newest pitch under Cooper? 

[fathom]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Even when he’s throwing 91 mph fastballs with a cutter for his newest pitch under Cooper? 

Sure, because at least we know he has an all-world change up and curve.  He’s like Greinke on steroids and I think he ages well.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

94.6. 

I expect a little uptick next year from Giolito. I think he's going to average closer to 96 next year. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I expect a little uptick next year from Giolito. I think he's going to average closer to 96 next year. 

He topped out at 98mph even this year. It's not likely, nor is it a good idea, to average 96mph when your peak velocity is 98mph. 

A 3MPH reduction off peak velocity is pretty standard. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Sure, because at least we know he has an all-world change up and curve.  He’s like Greinke on steroids and I think he ages well.

Stras actually throws a lot of sinkers - bucking the league wide trend. He actually increased his sinker usage over the past couple years.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He topped out at 98mph even this year. It's not likely, nor is it a good idea, to average 96mph when your peak velocity is 98mph. 

A 3MPH reduction off peak velocity is pretty standard. 

I think he's going to top out at 99-100 next year. He's thrown that hard before, it isn't out of the question.

If he averaged 94.6 last year I'm expecting his average to be in the 95.5-95.9  range next year. It's a roughly 1 mph increase. Not that unlikely. 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I think he's going to top out at 99-100 next year. He's thrown that hard before, it isn't out of the question. 

Velocity peaks younger than any other thing for an arm. You'll see some guys gain velocity as they change mechanics - sure - but it's not likely gio will ever start throwing 100 mph as he did as a free throwing 19 year old. Is it possible? Yes, but it's not likely.

[fathom]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Velocity peaks younger than any other thing for an arm. You'll see some guys gain velocity as they change mechanics - sure - but it's not likely gio will ever start throwing 100 mph as he did as a free throwing 19 year old. Is it possible? Yes, but it's not likely.

Yeah that seems like an extreme possibility for him. If he maintains 94.5 or whatever, that’s fine with me.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Velocity peaks younger than any other thing for an arm. You'll see some guys gain velocity as they change mechanics - sure - but it's not likely gio will ever start throwing 100 mph as he did as a free throwing 19 year old. Is it possible? Yes, but it's not likely.

Of course it does, but given that he touched 98 a few times this year, plus the fact that he can actually train this winter instead of rebuilding his delivery, it isn't out of the question. I don't think it's a guarantee by any means, but it wouldn't be surprising at all. I think he's going to hit the upper 90s more often than he did in 2019. 

If last year proved anything, it's that his issues were all mechanically related. I wouldn't be surprised to see his average velocity jump somewhere from 0.5-1.3 mph next year as he gets more comfortable with his new delivery and he's no longer thinking about mechanics and just pitching. 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[BackDoorBreach]

He clearly doesn't need to throw 100 MPH to be effective.  

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

He clearly doesn't need to throw 100 MPH to be effective.  

Sure, but it helps. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Of course it does, but given that he touched 98 a few times this year, plus the fact that he can actually train this winter instead of rebuilding his delivery, it isn't out of the question. I don't think it's a guarantee by any means, but it wouldn't be surprising at all. I think he's going to hit the upper 90s more often than he did in 2019. 

If last year proved anything, it's that his issues were all mechanically related. I wouldn't be surprised to see his average velocity jump somewhere from 0.5-1.3 mph next year as he gets more comfortable with his new delivery and he's no longer thinking about mechanics and just pitching. 

But his new delivery limits his leverage a bit because he doesn't get quite the same extension as he did when he threw really hard. 

He can repeat this delivery with much greater frequency, and he's found a way to generate enough power with his legs to recoup a lot of velocity he lost by being off balance and with his full extension delivery.

That said, I think his velocity is where it is now because that's what his delivery allows paired with his effort. It doesnt mean its impossible, but it just feels less likely. Time will tell.

[Jack Parkman]

30 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

But his new delivery limits his leverage a bit because he doesn't get quite the same extension as he did when he threw really hard. 

He can repeat this delivery with much greater frequency, and he's found a way to generate enough power with his legs to recoup a lot of velocity he lost by being off balance and with his full extension delivery.

That said, I think his velocity is where it is now because that's what his delivery allows paired with his effort. It doesnt mean its impossible, but it just feels less likely. Time will tell.

Right. And he can actually train for that this winter, instead of worrying about mechanics. Muscle Memory helps you be more loose, and it can result in an increase in velo as well. 

I also noticed with Gio this year that if he was really cruising in a game he threw harder. The more confident he is in a given start, the harder he throws. 

You may be right about his velocity being what it is, and it's more than fine where it is. I just wouldn't be surprised if he had a 0.5-1.3 mph increase next year, just due to muscle memory and training. 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Whisox05]