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A Realistic Offseason


BamaDoc

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1 minute ago, cjgalloway said:

So we all are making offseasons of a top pitcher and top hitter.  Which would be ideal.  But would people HATE a SP heavy offseason?  I mean, would you really hate something like this:

 

Wheeler - 5 years 115 million 

Ryu - 4 years 70 million

Delin Betances - 3 years 20 million

Encanacion - 1 year 12 million

Kole Calhoun - 1 year 7 million

Matt Wieters - 1 year 5 million

Abrue accepts QO

 

All hitters are 1 year deals.  Encarnacion is still a fantastic hitter but otherwise we are going into the season hoping Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Madrigal and Abreu all produce at the same level or better essentially, which is risky.  We really upgraded the pitching a ton.  This is an offseason I could still get behind despite not getting Grandal or Castellanos or a different bigger name.

 

That would be awesome. No way Ryu is getting four guaranteed years though considering the durability questions. 

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58 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

So we all are making offseasons of a top pitcher and top hitter.  Which would be ideal.  But would people HATE a SP heavy offseason?  I mean, would you really hate something like this:

 

Wheeler - 5 years 115 million 

Ryu - 4 years 70 million

Delin Betances - 3 years 20 million

Encanacion - 1 year 12 million

Kole Calhoun - 1 year 7 million

Matt Wieters - 1 year 5 million

Abrue accepts QO

 

All hitters are 1 year deals.  Encarnacion is still a fantastic hitter but otherwise we are going into the season hoping Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Madrigal and Abreu all produce at the same level or better essentially, which is risky.  We really upgraded the pitching a ton.  This is an offseason I could still get behind despite not getting Grandal or Castellanos or a different bigger name.

 

This would be one of my preferred approaches. I definitely want them to get one of the top pitchers we could reasonably hope to play well the next 3-4 years. There are some good 1 year candidates, but next years SP class is rough. And trading for pitching can be expensive.

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1 hour ago, cjgalloway said:

So we all are making offseasons of a top pitcher and top hitter.  Which would be ideal.  But would people HATE a SP heavy offseason?  I mean, would you really hate something like this:

 

Wheeler - 5 years 115 million 

Ryu - 4 years 70 million

Delin Betances - 3 years 20 million

Encanacion - 1 year 12 million

Kole Calhoun - 1 year 7 million

Matt Wieters - 1 year 5 million

Abrue accepts QO

 

All hitters are 1 year deals.  Encarnacion is still a fantastic hitter but otherwise we are going into the season hoping Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Madrigal and Abreu all produce at the same level or better essentially, which is risky.  We really upgraded the pitching a ton.  This is an offseason I could still get behind despite not getting Grandal or Castellanos or a different bigger name.

 

If the Sox could get Wheeler and Ryu I'd be doing handsprings. We have no idea if Gio can be the Gio of last year consistently and we still have no clue on how good Kopech, Cease, Lopez , Dunning  and Rodon will be and how long it will take them to reach  a plateau.

After that they could sign Rocky, Bullwinkle , Natasha and Boris for all the other positions.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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1 hour ago, cjgalloway said:

So we all are making offseasons of a top pitcher and top hitter.  Which would be ideal.  But would people HATE a SP heavy offseason?  I mean, would you really hate something like this:

 

Wheeler - 5 years 115 million 

Ryu - 4 years 70 million

Delin Betances - 3 years 20 million

Encanacion - 1 year 12 million

Kole Calhoun - 1 year 7 million

Matt Wieters - 1 year 5 million

Abrue accepts QO

 

All hitters are 1 year deals.  Encarnacion is still a fantastic hitter but otherwise we are going into the season hoping Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Madrigal and Abreu all produce at the same level or better essentially, which is risky.  We really upgraded the pitching a ton.  This is an offseason I could still get behind despite not getting Grandal or Castellanos or a different bigger name.

 

Honestly, yes I'd dislike that setup. If you're spending $185 million on a pitcher to make sure you go 5 deep - you're approaching overkill. There's good reason to have some pitching depth but there's no reason why you should have Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Giolito, and 1/2 of Rodon for only 3 spots, even if you're expecting Ryu to get hurt.

If you're going to spend $185 million on pitching go sign Stras. Especially if you are making the playoffs, the guy at your #1 spot matters a lot more than the guys at your #3/#4 spots. 

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1 hour ago, oldsox said:

A Realistic Offseason should include Rule 5 candidates, and the list is out.  Yankees have two really good prospects on their list, Florial and Gil.  I would take Gil in a heartbeat and stick him in the bullpen for 2020.  This makes a lot more sense than the slugs the Sox had in 2019 bullpen.  The names are too numerous to mention.

Florial will 10000000% be protected before the R5 draft.  

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Honestly, yes I'd dislike that setup. If you're spending $185 million on a pitcher to make sure you go 5 deep - you're approaching overkill. There's good reason to have some pitching depth but there's no reason why you should have Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Giolito, and 1/2 of Rodon for only 3 spots, even if you're expecting Ryu to get hurt.

If you're going to spend $185 million on pitching go sign Stras. Especially if you are making the playoffs, the guy at your #1 spot matters a lot more than the guys at your #3/#4 spots. 

Honest question: is there an offseason you would applaud the Sox that doesn't include signing Cole?  

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The more I think about it, the more I realize that I'll be disappointed with just about any offseason that doesn't net Cole or Strasburg.  The name of the game is to build a World Series contender.  World Series contenders need a bona fide ace to anchor to their pitching rotation, period.  There are TWO aces on the market this offseason that could anchor us through our contention period, and we have nothing but money to spend.  We have a clear and obvious need, available solutions, and the means to make it happen. Why wouldn't we be disappointed if we fail to execute?

Yes, I know -- I should get ready for disappointment because we've all decided the Sox won't spend the money on these guys.  Maybe that's true, maybe not, none of us knows and it's irrelevant anyway.  I'm bored with this meta-analysis that tries to craft an offseason that's acceptable within the imaginary set of plans and preferences we've ascribed to the front office.  Ace or bust!

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10 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

The more I think about it, the more I realize that I'll be disappointed with just about any offseason that doesn't net Cole or Strasburg.  The name of the game is to build a World Series contender.  World Series contenders need a bona fide ace to anchor to their pitching rotation, period.  There are TWO aces on the market this offseason that could anchor us through our contention period, and we have nothing but money to spend.  We have a clear and obvious need, available solutions, and the means to make it happen. Why wouldn't we be disappointed if we fail to execute?

 Yes, I know -- I should get ready for disappointment because we've all decided the Sox won't spend the money on these guys.  Maybe that's true, maybe not, none of us knows and it's irrelevant anyway.  I'm bored with this meta-analysis that tries to craft an offseason that's acceptable within the imaginary set of plans and preferences we've ascribed to the front office.  Ace or bust!

That's not necessarily true. The Brewers were legit world series contenders in 18 and didn't even have a bonafide #2. Braves, I think, had as good a chance as anyone and Soroka was on a level with Giolito on a WAR basis. 

People put too much stock in what it takes to win in the playoffs, because at the end of the day what it takes is being present and a bunch of dumb luck. 

Edited by mqr
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9 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

The more I think about it, the more I realize that I'll be disappointed with just about any offseason that doesn't net Cole or Strasburg.  The name of the game is to build a World Series contender.  World Series contenders need a bona fide ace to anchor to their pitching rotation, period.  There are TWO aces on the market this offseason that could anchor us through our contention period, and we have nothing but money to spend.  We have a clear and obvious need, available solutions, and the means to make it happen. Why wouldn't we be disappointed if we fail to execute?

Yes, I know -- I should get ready for disappointment because we've all decided the Sox won't spend the money on these guys.  Maybe that's true, maybe not, none of us knows and it's irrelevant anyway.  I'm bored with this meta-analysis that tries to craft an offseason that's acceptable within the imaginary set of plans and preferences we've ascribed to the front office.  Ace or bust!

Unfortunately, Cole or Strasburg isn’t going to happen. Maybe Giolito is our perennial ace- time will tell. Kopech, Cease have ace potential- again, time will tell. Basically, the Sox are on their own until they crack 81-81, then they might be able to persuade a whale to join the party. 

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13 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Honest question: is there an offseason you would applaud the Sox that doesn't include signing Cole?  

Stras works at almost the same level so sure.

I'm not going to be as excited for Wheeler and Grandal or something that brings in Martinez, but I'd get it.

The stronger the top of this rotation becomes this offseason,  the stronger this team is and the more I like it. The more you spread your dollars around, the more busts you are going to find.

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10 minutes ago, flavum said:

Unfortunately, Cole or Strasburg isn’t going to happen. Maybe Giolito is our perennial ace- time will tell. Kopech, Cease have ace potential- again, time will tell. Basically, the Sox are on their own until they crack 81-81, then they might be able to persuade a whale to join the party. 

"Fortunately, Cole or Strasburg IS going to happen."  There -- the baseless speculation ledger is back to even and we can concentrate on waiting to see what actually happens.

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19 minutes ago, mqr said:

That's not necessarily true. The Brewers were legit world series contenders in 18 and didn't even have a bonafide #2. Braves, I think, had as good a chance as anyone and Soroka was on a level with Giolito on a WAR basis. 

People put too much stock in what it takes to win in the playoffs, because at the end of the day what it takes is being present and a bunch of dumb luck. 

The Brewers may not have had elite starting pitching but they had a bullpen way better than anything we're likely to have this season on paper barring some enormous breakouts. I'll still accept that a truly dominant bullpen is a way to get to the world series, but I also note that when a dominant bullpen (Yankees, Brewers) went up against a dominant rotation in the last few years (Astros, Dodgers), the dominant bullpen has consistently lost. The last time it worked was with Kansas City, since then, the world series winning team and most of the losing teams have featured extremely strong, front-line starters.

The Braves were, interestingly,  the weakest division winning team on paper last year by fangraphs/pythagorean record and the only weaker team in the playoffs was the Brewers, who again were carried by that bullpen.

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54 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Honestly, yes I'd dislike that setup. If you're spending $185 million on a pitcher to make sure you go 5 deep - you're approaching overkill. There's good reason to have some pitching depth but there's no reason why you should have Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Giolito, and 1/2 of Rodon for only 3 spots, even if you're expecting Ryu to get hurt.

If you're going to spend $185 million on pitching go sign Stras. Especially if you are making the playoffs, the guy at your #1 spot matters a lot more than the guys at your #3/#4 spots. 

Not to make  the playoffs. I also dislike approach of caring about total spend. We should worry more about fitting individual yearly budgets into place. Adding Ryu and Wheeler at that price is still a very affordable rotation, and both have potential for very high ceiling years (and also not playing).

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2 hours ago, cjgalloway said:

So we all are making offseasons of a top pitcher and top hitter.  Which would be ideal.  But would people HATE a SP heavy offseason?  I mean, would you really hate something like this:

 

Wheeler - 5 years 115 million 

Ryu - 4 years 70 million

Delin Betances - 3 years 20 million

Encanacion - 1 year 12 million

Kole Calhoun - 1 year 7 million

Matt Wieters - 1 year 5 million

Abrue accepts QO

 

All hitters are 1 year deals.  Encarnacion is still a fantastic hitter but otherwise we are going into the season hoping Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Madrigal and Abreu all produce at the same level or better essentially, which is risky.  We really upgraded the pitching a ton.  This is an offseason I could still get behind despite not getting Grandal or Castellanos or a different bigger name.

 

One quibble - no to weiters.

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12 minutes ago, bmags said:

Not to make  the playoffs. I also dislike approach of caring about total spend. We should worry more about fitting individual yearly budgets into place. Adding Ryu and Wheeler at that price is still a very affordable rotation, and both have potential for very high ceiling years (and also not playing).

In some ways yes it is, because we do have some pitching depth. If, hypothetically, Lopez gets banished to the bullpen, rather than being a 5th starter - Lopez was a 2 WAR pitcher last year.  That might not be great, but if you're spending $20 million a year to bring in a 4 WAR pitcher to replace him - you're spending an awful lot of money for that increase. Just for example, paying Stras and Lopez for $30 million gets you in STEAMER projections a comparable number of WAR to what $40 million gets you for Wheeler and Ryu, and now I have an extra $10 million to go for Grandal instead of Wieters or Martinez instead of Encarnacion in the given scenario.

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6 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

 

Weird tactic. With Record breaking deals possible and teams that lose out looking for a fall back....why do this and risk injury? He gets 4/80 at the VERY minimum on Market. I cannot believe his agent and WIFE would support losing so much. That is family altering money if his arm falls off. 

Edited by EloyJenkins
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