A Realistic Offseason

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Weird tactic. With Record breaking deals possible and teams that lose out looking for a fall back....why do this and risk injury? He gets 4/80 at the VERY minimum on Market. I cannot believe his agent and WIFE would support losing so much. That is family altering money if his arm falls off. 

Because his market is suppressed. Theres only so much money to go around in an off season and Odorizzi is option #10 on the market. 

Hes not guaranteed to sign a deal worth that much money annually - he might as well bet on himself, duplicate his results and make another run at it with 2 years of success under his belt.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

In some ways yes it is, because we do have some pitching depth. If, hypothetically, Lopez gets banished to the bullpen, rather than being a 5th starter - Lopez was a 2 WAR pitcher last year.  That might not be great, but if you're spending $20 million a year to bring in a 4 WAR pitcher to replace him - you're spending an awful lot of money for that increase. Just for example, paying Stras and Lopez for $30 million gets you in STEAMER projections a comparable number of WAR to what $40 million gets you for Wheeler and Ryu, and now I have an extra $10 million to go for Grandal instead of Wieters or Martinez instead of Encarnacion in the given scenario.

This assumes a full season from every starter which is a terrible assumption. You are ensuring you do not have a dropoff of a 2 WAR pitcher to a -2WAR pitcher because there is no depth behind Lopez. 

There is a reason why analytics liked teams like the Mets last year, they had a ton of depth to prevent any massive fall-off despite not a lot of high-end talent. The white sox would finally have a lot of pitching depth if they brought in two 4 WAR pitchers. It's a big help to making the playoffs regardless of the playoff winning formula.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

41 minutes ago, bmags said:

One quibble - no to weiters.

I just wanted a LH backup catcher and he fit.  But that's interchangeable

Edited November 14, 2019 by cjgalloway

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

30 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

 

Man that's still a pretty strong SP crop next year.  Albeit all mid-rotation guys.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

24 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Weird tactic. With Record breaking deals possible and teams that lose out looking for a fall back....why do this and risk injury? He gets 4/80 at the VERY minimum on Market. I cannot believe his agent and WIFE would support losing so much. That is family altering money if his arm falls off. 

There is better chance of a supermodel falling in love with me than Jake Odorizzi getting 4/80.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

25 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Weird tactic. With Record breaking deals possible and teams that lose out looking for a fall back....why do this and risk injury? He gets 4/80 at the VERY minimum on Market. I cannot believe his agent and WIFE would support losing so much. That is family altering money if his arm falls off. 

I think 4 for 60 is about his MAX if he went into FA.  

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

There is better chance of a supermodel falling in love with me than Jake Odorizzi getting 4/80.

 

1 minute ago, cjgalloway said:

I think 4 for 60 is about his MAX if he went into FA.  

After the last few years, mid-level guys who are stuck on the FA market with qualifying offers haven't done well, especially if teams move on. 

If you were given the choice between Keuchel and Odorizzi, who would you pick? It's at least close right? Last year, Keuchel missed out on an offer, and wound up only being paid $13 million by the Braves. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

 

After the last few years, mid-level guys who are stuck on the FA market with qualifying offers haven't done well, especially if teams move on. 

If you were given the choice between Keuchel and Odorizzi, who would you pick? It's at least close right? Last year, Keuchel missed out on an offer, and wound up only being paid $13 million by the Braves. 

If it were last year Keuchel VS this year Odorizzi (so when both went to FA with qO attached) it's a no brained Kuechel. And the poor dude couldn't sign.

[Balta1701]

Just now, cjgalloway said:

If it were last year Keuchel VS this year Odorizzi (so when both went to FA with qO attached) it's a no brained Kuechel. And the poor dude couldn't sign.

Am I right that a team also can't offer a guy a QO 2 years in a row? So if Odorizzi accepted the QO, he'd hit free agency next year having banked $18 million and with no QO attached? 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Am I right that a team also can't offer a guy a QO 2 years in a row? So if Odorizzi accepted the QO, he'd hit free agency next year having banked $18 million and with no QO attached? 

Once you are offered a QO you can NEVER be offered another one again.  That's why Grandal does not have a QO this year because last year he was given one (and rejected)

[Thad Bosley]

3 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Castellanos- 4/66M

 

 

Castellanos is just not a viable option for the Sox, IMO, given his sub-par defense. 

Our young pitchers and whoever we pick up via free agency just cannot have terrible defense on both OF corners for the next few years.  

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Once you are offered a QO you can NEVER be offered another one again.  That's why Grandal does not have a QO this year because last year he was given one (and rejected)

He's made a total of $21 million in his career so far and he's got a guaranteed $18 million with no doubt right now? Unless some team has a better offer on the table right now, yeah I'd take that if I was in his shoes. I'm more risk-averse than a lot of ballplayers are, but it makes sense to me.

[ChiSox59]

38 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Weird tactic. With Record breaking deals possible and teams that lose out looking for a fall back....why do this and risk injury? He gets 4/80 at the VERY minimum on Market. I cannot believe his agent and WIFE would support losing so much. That is family altering money if his arm falls off. 

Odorizzi isn't getting 4/$80M with a pick attached.  In fact, he'd have a decent chance to get Keuchel'd IMO.  I think taking the QO is absolutely the right thing to do in this case.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

In some ways yes it is, because we do have some pitching depth. If, hypothetically, Lopez gets banished to the bullpen, rather than being a 5th starter - Lopez was a 2 WAR pitcher last year.  That might not be great, but if you're spending $20 million a year to bring in a 4 WAR pitcher to replace him - you're spending an awful lot of money for that increase. Just for example, paying Stras and Lopez for $30 million gets you in STEAMER projections a comparable number of WAR to what $40 million gets you for Wheeler and Ryu, and now I have an extra $10 million to go for Grandal instead of Wieters or Martinez instead of Encarnacion in the given scenario.

I don't think the Sox have starting pitching depth as much as you probably think. We certainly have the potential for starting pitch depth but how long that takes is in question, Adding Wheeler and Ryu gives us the depth that I am questioning because the unpredictability of youth is removed which is more important when wanting to compete in a hurry. 2 guys who can both be good with the youth ,should one break out ,allows insurance against someone getting injured. With Cole or Strasburg alone an injury can be devastating especially to Cole or Strasburg considering all the extra post season games they pitched. I feel more comfortable having the potential Big Three of Gio, Wheeler and Ryu than having a big 2 of Cole/Stras and Gio., The bottom 5 guys ( Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Rodon and Dunning) are just too unpredictable at this time to consider them enough depth to win a division or go far in the playoffs.

Wheeler

Ryu

Giolito

Kopech

Cease

Lopez

Rodon

Dunning

Rodon and Dunning shouldn't be counted on for much of anything this year except to get back to pitching and maybe give the bullpen a boost in the 2nd half or with Dunning get starters innings back in the minors and see if he can regain his once promising career.

With Lopez perhaps limited to the bull pen it's not perfect for his development but maybe he would start the season in the rotation while Kopech starts in the minors and makes a good impression. Kopech will be on an innings limit anyway so down the stretch if the Sox can compete losing Kopech won't hurt as much with either Lopez or Rodon to replace him. Right now Rodon isn't a long term piece so anything we get will be gravy . Having the pitching depth to trade from is  also a plus if we all of a sudden have too much pitching from all being good and uninjured in 2020. Odds of that happening probably 500-1.

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Am I right that a team also can't offer a guy a QO 2 years in a row? So if Odorizzi accepted the QO, he'd hit free agency next year having banked $18 million and with no QO attached? 

Correct

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I don't think the Sox have starting pitching depth as much as you probably think. We certainly have the potential for starting pitch depth but how long that takes is in question, Adding Wheeler and Ryu gives us the depth that I am questioning because the unpredictability of youth is removed which is more important when wanting to compete in a hurry. 2 guys who can both be good with the youth ,should one break out ,allows insurance against someone getting injured. With Cole or Strasburg alone an injury can be devastating especially to Cole or Strasburg considering all the extra post season games they pitched. I feel more comfortable having the potential Big Three of Gio, Wheeler and Ryu than having a big 2 of Cole/Stras and Gio., The bottom 5 guys ( Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Rodon and Dunning) are just too unpredictable at this time to consider them enough depth to win a division or go far in the playoffs.

Wheeler

Ryu

Giolito

Kopech

Cease

Lopez

Rodon

Dunning

Rodon and Dunning shouldn't be counted on for much of anything this year except to get back to pitching and maybe give the bullpen a boost in the 2nd half or with Dunning get starters innings back in the minors and see if he can regain his once promising career.

With Lopez perhaps limited to the bull pen it's not perfect for his development but maybe he would start the season in the rotation while Kopech starts in the minors and makes a good impression. Kopech will be on an innings limit anyway so down the stretch if the Sox can compete losing Kopech won't hurt as much with either Lopez or Rodon to replace him. Right now Rodon isn't a long term piece so anything we get will be gravy . Having the pitching depth to trade from is  also a plus if we all of a sudden have too much pitching from all being good and uninjured in 2020. Odds of that happening probably 500-1.

I still need a Nova/Teheran type to be either a bullpen longman or a starter for brief periods, I'll grant you that, but there's no earthly way that I am writing down a rotation that doesn't include Cease, Kopech, and Giolito next year because developing those guys into our rotation is perhaps our #1 priority right now. 

Lopez has shown enough to me that I believe he can pitch a good number of innings and at the worst be a solid 5th starter with some upside, so since I need slots open for those 4 guys. That leaves me saying that 2 expensive starters is a "diminishing returns" point; I'd rather get one of them and use the funds available elsewhere. 

[EloyJenkins]

Crap. You guys are right. My fat finger had a typo. I meant to say 4/60. I still think that is life altering money not to walk away from. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, EloyJenkins said:

Crap. You guys are right. My fat finger had a typo. I meant to say 4/60. I still think that is life altering money not to walk away from. 

He's a guy who should have put in calls this week to teams. If he doesn't have anything close to that kind of money on the table then he should accept it, and his agent should have been telling teams that if they didn't put solid offers on the table he'd just take the QO. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I still need a Nova/Teheran type to be either a bullpen longman or a starter for brief periods, I'll grant you that, but there's no earthly way that I am writing down a rotation that doesn't include Cease, Kopech, and Giolito next year because developing those guys into our rotation is perhaps our #1 priority right now. 

Lopez has shown enough to me that I believe he can pitch a good number of innings and at the worst be a solid 5th starter with some upside, so since I need slots open for those 4 guys. That leaves me saying that 2 expensive starters is a "diminishing returns" point; I'd rather get one of them and use the funds available elsewhere. 

But the rotation would include Cease Kopech and Giolito just with Wheeler and Ryu without the need for Nova/Teheran when you have Lopez.  For the 1st half of the season if Kopech goes back to the minors it's Lopez and depending on how Kopech does in the minors and Lopez does in the rotation you can pick among the 2 but ultimately Kopech will have to be shut down. If one of the top 2 get injured in your scenario (along with Nova) and Kopech getting shut down it becomes 1. Gio or Stras/Cole, 2.Cease, 3. Lopez 4. Nova 5. Rodon or Dunning down the stretch.

Diminishing returns only applies in the best case scenario and with so much youth and people coming back from injuries that just isn't likely.

I'll take the starting pitching depth and risk Collins and McCann at catcher put Dickerson in RF and instead of Moose maybe Brock Holt as a solid bench piece that can play infield or OF and roll with the lineup with just those few additions along with the Robert and Madrigal adds also.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

But the rotation would include Cease Kopech and Giolito just with Wheeler and Ryu without the need for Nova/Teheran when you have Lopez.  For the 1st half of the season if Kopech goes back to the minors it's Lopez and depending on how Kopech does in the minors and Lopez does in the rotation you can pick among the 2 but ultimately Kopech will have to be shut down. If one of the top 2 get injured in your scenario (along with Nova) and Kopech getting shut down it becomes 1. Gio or Stras/Cole, 2.Cease, 3. Lopez 4. Nova 5. Rodon or Dunning down the stretch.

Diminishing returns only applies in the best case scenario and with so much youth and people coming back from injuries that just isn't likely.

I'll take the starting pitching depth and risk Collins and McCann at catcher put Dickerson in RF and instead of Moose maybe Brock Holt as a solid bench piece that can play infield or OF and roll with the lineup with just those few additions along with the Robert and Madrigal adds also.

But you're only considering 1 season in the case you just gave, and yet the guys being signed are for 3 or 4 year deals. So yes, guys are coming back from injury and young...but you also don't want to lock up that much money on 2 starters for multiple years when you do have that many guys who can take the ball. 

So yeah, my setup may not be as good as yours next year (bring in stras and there's a good chance that it is), but my setup is playing the long game. 

[SCCWS]

5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

But the rotation would include Cease Kopech and Giolito just with Wheeler and Ryu without the need for Nova/Teheran when you have Lopez.  For the 1st half of the season if Kopech goes back to the minors it's Lopez and depending on how Kopech does in the minors and Lopez does in the rotation you can pick among the 2 but ultimately Kopech will have to be shut down. If one of the top 2 get injured in your scenario (along with Nova) and Kopech getting shut down it becomes 1. Gio or Stras/Cole, 2.Cease, 3. Lopez 4. Nova 5. Rodon or Dunning down the stretch.

Diminishing returns only applies in the best case scenario and with so much youth and people coming back from injuries that just isn't likely.

I'll take the starting pitching depth and risk Collins and McCann at catcher put Dickerson in RF and instead of Moose maybe Brock Holt as a solid bench piece that can play infield or OF and roll with the lineup with just those few additions along with the Robert and Madrigal adds also.

Rumor is Holt to Arizona for $8Mil/2 yrs.  

[TheFutureIsNear]

1 hour ago, Thad Bosley said:

Castellanos is just not a viable option for the Sox, IMO, given his sub-par defense. 

Our young pitchers and whoever we pick up via free agency just cannot have terrible defense on both OF corners for the next few years.  

Is he really THAT bad? Can he not improve as a 28 year old new to the OF? It’s not like he’s a horrible athlete that can’t move. He improved drastically from year 1 to year 2 in RF. I see no reason he can’t improve again to be league average. We play in the AL, a small hitters park, and in era that is becoming an increasingly 3 out come game. If scouts feel like Castellanos can become a league average defender he’d be a very good fit imo. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, SCCWS said:

Rumor is Holt to Arizona for $8Mil/2 yrs.  

Where you hearing this?

[ChiSox59]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Where you hearing this?

Insert Boston media comment.  

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The Brewers may not have had elite starting pitching but they had a bullpen way better than anything we're likely to have this season on paper barring some enormous breakouts. I'll still accept that a truly dominant bullpen is a way to get to the world series, but I also note that when a dominant bullpen (Yankees, Brewers) went up against a dominant rotation in the last few years (Astros, Dodgers), the dominant bullpen has consistently lost. The last time it worked was with Kansas City, since then, the world series winning team and most of the losing teams have featured extremely strong, front-line starters.

The Braves were, interestingly,  the weakest division winning team on paper last year by fangraphs/pythagorean record and the only weaker team in the playoffs was the Brewers, who again were carried by that bullpen.

Where do the Indians in 2016 fall in terms of bullpen vs. starting pitching?