Would you trade for Mookie Betts, and what would you trade

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yes, you're correct. Betts is a pipedream. So is anyone decent on the FA market. 

If they continue to be cheap with FA, then Moncada and Gio are going to walk in 2023 and the Sox might have had one playoff appearance. 

While sitting here pondering this, I do wonder if Betts doesn't find himself in a similar situation to Machado and Harper - the big 3 teams being "out" or nearly so on him and as a consequence he winds up getting a fair deal from someone else, maybe after a good amount of waiting.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While sitting here pondering this, I do wonder if Betts doesn't find himself in a similar situation to Machado and Harper - the big 3 teams being "out" or nearly so on him and as a consequence he winds up getting a fair deal from someone else, maybe after a good amount of waiting.

I truly hope that the Sox realize that they have to fix their holes with money. My fear is that they still believe in Lopez enough that they're comfortable going into  next season with Giolito/Kopech/Cease/Lopez as their top 4. There is still a metric shit ton of upside there and it's really easy to make that decision. 

Edited September 30, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

I would make the 2015 trade for samardjiza today for mookie betts single year even if you granted me the foresight of knowing what would happen to them. 

I would not. Marcus Semien literally outhit Mookie Betts last year. In 2015-2016 we traded away the core of a team that would have at least been in the running for the wild card this year.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I truly hope that the Sox realize that they have to fix their holes with money. My fear is that they still believe in Lopez enough that they're comfortable going into  next season with Giolito/Kopech/Cease/Lopez as their top 4. There is a metric shit ton of upside there. 

I personally would want Lopez in the rotation if I was running the team, but I'd also know what my 6th starter options are. 

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I personally would want Lopez in the rotation if I was running the team, but I'd also know what my 6th starter options are. 

Me too, but I'd like to fill one spot with a better option. I'd be more than fine with any of the top options on the FA SP market this winter. Cole, Strasburg,(pipedream)

Bumgarner, Wheeler any one of those four plus an upside play like Alex Wood or Michael Wacha would be fine with me. Make sure you have depth. If Nova is ok coming out of the bullpen as the long man, I'd bring him back as well for insurance. 

Edited September 30, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Me too, but I'd like to fill one spot with a better option. I'd be more than fine with any of the top options on the FA SP market this winter. Cole, Strasburg,(pipedream)

Bumgarner, Wheeler any one of those four plus an upside play like Alex Wood or Michael Wacha would be fine with me. Make sure you have depth. If Nova is ok coming out of the bullpen as the long man, I'd bring him back as well for insurance. 

This is why I'm fine with them adding 2 starters. Get someone for the front and then sign a back-end starter. Let Kopech start the season in the minors for a month and evaluate how Lopez and the other starter are doing over that time. Bump one to pen or send Lopez to AAA or decide if he could be better in the pen as a late inning arm.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would not. Marcus Semien literally outhit Mookie Betts last year. In 2015-2016 we traded away the core of a team that would have at least been in the running for the wild card this year.

Mookie Betts career wRC+ is just shy of semien's career year wRC+. The wild card this year saw a team win 92 games and sit at home. Billy beane did very well on the Samardjiza trade, but it has very few lessons for acquiring an actual superstar.

[bmags]

21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I truly hope that the Sox realize that they have to fix their holes with money. My fear is that they still believe in Lopez enough that they're comfortable going into  next season with Giolito/Kopech/Cease/Lopez as their top 4. There is still a metric shit ton of upside there and it's really easy to make that decision. 

I look at how the twins were able to foster a major offseason improvement largely through free agency on a minimal budget. It was probably an outlier free agency example, not many are as successful.

But I genuinely wonder, with the sox just now setting up group, if the sox actually have the infrastructure to extract enough value from their money when discussing spreading it around as much as people are talking about here.

So if money is to be the cure-all for the sox to get over the top I'd rather place my bets on some surer things than hoping this group finds the next odorizzi.

[greg775]

45 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would not. Marcus Semien literally outhit Mookie Betts last year. In 2015-2016 we traded away the core of a team that would have at least been in the running for the wild card this year.

The A's genius front office did it again in fleecing Semien from the Sox. Semien had quite the season.

[Balta1701]

48 minutes ago, bmags said:

I look at how the twins were able to foster a major offseason improvement largely through free agency on a minimal budget. It was probably an outlier free agency example, not many are as successful.

But I genuinely wonder, with the sox just now setting up group, if the sox actually have the infrastructure to extract enough value from their money when discussing spreading it around as much as people are talking about here.

So if money is to be the cure-all for the sox to get over the top I'd rather place my bets on some surer things than hoping this group finds the next odorizzi.

I think the bolded really isn't a great summary of how the Twins got there. Here are the top 12 performing players on the Twins this season by Fangraphs:

Max Kepler
Jose Berrios
Jake Odorizzi
Nelson Cruz
Jorge Polanco
Mitch Garver
Miguel Sano
Michael Pineda
Kyle Gibson
Bryan Buxton
Luis Arraez
Taylor Rodgers

Out of their top 12 players, only 2 (Italicized) were guys who came in as free agents. 10/12 guys were developed internally. For a team that put up 53 fWAR this year, 35 fWAR came from the 10 internally developed guys on that list, and I haven't gone down to add in all the other guys such as in their bullpen who were developed internally. The Twins did fill in gaps with 1-2 win players, but that is literally what we just said we didn't want to do. What the Twins did this year that was effective was, first of all - have a lot of development success stories, and second - make sure they didn't have any positions filled with players who were dramatically negative.
 

[bmags]

22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think the bolded really isn't a great summary of how the Twins got there. Here are the top 12 performing players on the Twins this season by Fangraphs:

Max Kepler
Jose Berrios
Jake Odorizzi
Nelson Cruz
Jorge Polanco
Mitch Garver
Miguel Sano
Michael Pineda
Kyle Gibson
Bryan Buxton
Luis Arraez
Taylor Rodgers

Out of their top 12 players, only 2 (Italicized) were guys who came in as free agents. 10/12 guys were developed internally. For a team that put up 53 fWAR this year, 35 fWAR came from the 10 internally developed guys on that list, and I haven't gone down to add in all the other guys such as in their bullpen who were developed internally. The Twins did fill in gaps with 1-2 win players, but that is literally what we just said we didn't want to do. What the Twins did this year that was effective was, first of all - have a lot of development success stories, and second - make sure they didn't have any positions filled with players who were dramatically negative.
 

Built largely may have been not the right way to think of it, but last year the twins spent roughly 38 million on Gonzalez, Cron, Cruz, Perez, Parker and Schoop. That got them 9.1 fWAR combined.

The white sox spent 38 million on Alonso, Colome, Herrera, Nova, McCann, Jay, Banuelos, Osich, and Santana (i'm actually not sure how to count santanas)

They got 3.1 fWAR combined

For similar price, they received 3x as much production out of their offseason additions.

So as we lower our sights to add to this team through just money, I really wonder how much people can expect this management team to nab through injury gambles and depth plays.

[SCCWS]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Well the $430 is key but yeah I'd do like a 10-12 year/435-440 absolutely.

Don't think you have to go that high. Mookie gets $20Mil now.  If Trout(37)-Machado(32) and Harper (27) are the competition, I would think Mookie could be had for 10/$350.  Maybe he wants #1 so worse case 10/$380.  

The White Sox could certainly pay that since they don't have any huge contracts on the books for 22. But I would assume the Red Sox will not trade Betts until just before ST if at all.  I don't think Hahn can wait that long unless he wants him only for a rental. I don't see him spending big bucks in FA and then going after Mookie ( unless his budget is $175+ for 22.)  

[Southwest Sider]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

I like this post because it at least gets at the idea that mookie betts becoming available is genuinely shocking and taking advantage of that should be heavily considered.

That we have to consider the sox self-made restrictions to judge it a bad idea is an indictment on our ownership/management team.

As we had done last year, though an individually large contract, in terms of total salary there is no reason this team can't afford an exceptional contract. 

But yes, I'd say the ideal is to just sign him next offseason. But, what if the dodgers acquire him? I don't think he gets away.

As for what I would trade, that is a tough question because I think that whatever I propose would get laughed at by Red Sox fans or front office.

Basically, Robert is the only true untouchable but I'm also not really interested in trading Madrigal or Vaughn. I've also said I'm not too interested in trading pitching prospects.

I think Steele Walker would have to be the headliner here... and he's not THAT much of a headliner. Quantity over quality then... so Walker and 1 of Adolfo/Rutherford/Basabe/Gonzalez, then a low level guy like Lenyn Sosa and then that 4th nobody prospect that nobody cares about. 

Then throw the bank at Betts, sign him, and don't give a crap you traded 2 of the systems best OF prospects.

Edited September 30, 2019 by South Sider

[bighurt574]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

The A's genius front office did it again in fleecing Semien from the Sox. Semien had quite the season.

In Year 5 with Oakland.  I'll hold it against the Sox for trading away a 3 WAR player (what Semien basically was in his first four years with Oakland).  I'm not going to hold it against them for trading away an 8 WAR player.  There isn't a Sox fan alive who thought Semien was an 8 WAR player.  

[SCCWS]

2 minutes ago, bighurt574 said:

In Year 5 with Oakland.  I'll hold it against the Sox for trading away a 3 WAR player (what Semien basically was in his first four years with Oakland).  I'm not going to hold it against them for trading away an 8 WAR player.  There isn't a Sox fan alive who thought Semien was an 8 WAR player.  

Probably wasn't an Oakland fan alive either. 

[bighurt574]

I wouldn't trade for Betts.  We're not going to win that bidding war to sign him long term, and I wouldn't want to give up top prospects for one year of his services (it's going to take a lot more than Steele Walker as the headliner, lol).  If we want to bid on him though, wait a year and give it a shot I guess.       

I don't see how we put together a trade for Betts that doesn't involve Robert or Vaughn.  Not sure Madrigal would even get it done, sort of depends on how BOS would view him as a prospect.  But without those 3, there's such a big dropoff in our system.  BOS would almost certainly find a better deal elsewhere.  

Edited September 30, 2019 by bighurt574

[BigHurt3515]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I think the bolded really isn't a great summary of how the Twins got there. Here are the top 12 performing players on the Twins this season by Fangraphs:

Max Kepler
Jose Berrios
Jake Odorizzi
Nelson Cruz
Jorge Polanco
Mitch Garver
Miguel Sano
Michael Pineda
Kyle Gibson
Bryan Buxton
Luis Arraez
Taylor Rodgers

Out of their top 12 players, only 2 (Italicized) were guys who came in as free agents. 10/12 guys were developed internally. For a team that put up 53 fWAR this year, 35 fWAR came from the 10 internally developed guys on that list, and I haven't gone down to add in all the other guys such as in their bullpen who were developed internally. The Twins did fill in gaps with 1-2 win players, but that is literally what we just said we didn't want to do. What the Twins did this year that was effective was, first of all - have a lot of development success stories, and second - make sure they didn't have any positions filled with players who were dramatically negative.
 

Jake Odorizzi came up with Tampa.

[GenericUserName]

I think what you have to do is ask the Red Sox if they are willing to trade him, and if they are then ask if you can first contact Mookie's agent. You don't need to agree to a deal, just to see what kind of number he would need to see to forego free agency and see if you are comfortable going to that number for him. At least to me, this isn't the same as agreeing to a trade contingent upon an extension, so we should only have to pay the price for one year of control and not the many more from the extension. Once we get him we then negotiate for the extension knowing it is going to be close to market rate. You take the number he said he wanted and basically offer that and make him turn you down and risk playing a whole year just to maybe get a little more.

That said, I don't see us doing it. I think its much more likely they try to sign him to an extension and let JDM walk when he tries to add a year or two to his deal. And even if they do put Mookie on the market, I think some other team will be willing to pay him enough to agree to an extension and the Red Sox will let the team negotiate so they can get a better package in return. At that point I think we are better off avoiding it because it would simultaneously limit our payroll flexibility and greatly reduce our prospect capital.

[elrockinMT]

9 hours ago, bmags said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/teammates-prepare-life-without-betts-we-dont-think-theyre-going-be-able-afford-mookie

If the red sox are really going to wave the white flag on betts, they will likely trade him this offseason.

 Betts has a year remaining. I assume he will try free agency.

And yet, and yet.

After trout and arenado signed extensions and the other extensions that followed, I have to wonder if the number hits the right point whether it should be assumed betts gets to FA.

And for me mookie is a guy you say how high for. But that's with payroll.

UInlike when we talked of trading for machado, next year could legitimately be a winning team with betts immediately.

How much is that cost of a year?

With the availability of second baseman - madrigal is definitely preferable. But Vaughn is also just a 1b, and the yankees got an .850 ops dh for basically nothing.

The elephant in the room of course is the white sox ownership. Hypothetically, i'd part with some pieces that we expect to be on a winning sox team for the year of betts + hope of signing him long term.

But he will break records on the deal or come close. He should not get a home town discount. 

And when that hangs over it...it would be impossible to judge if they suddenly traded for him. There would be too much uncertainty that they will have judged his market correctly and will inevitably stick to their number and be bewildered when he signs elsewhere.

Anyway, mookie betts is great.

 

Mookie might be good but it makes no sense to sign or trade for someone who can leave in a year 

[chitownsportsfan]

Well they'd obviously want a cornerstone back.   If I'm RH to get them to pickup the phone you're going to have to throw around names.  Giolito would get them talking I'd imagine.  Giolito and then they get the pick 2 of the next 5 guys: Rutherford, Micker, Walker, Basabe Yolbert/etc.  Preferably you'd deal from strength all the time but the Sox aren't in a position to do that really position player wise.  So you get them to buy super high on Gio and then get off pretty easy.

I have no idea if that's even close to his value but Gio + a couple B- guys is a solid opening offer I'd guess.

Edited October 1, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[caulfield12]

They need a 2B in the Pedroia mode, and Madrigal is the perfect match there.

It would be something like Madrigal, Lopez and Walker.

Thats too much capital to run the risk of losing him at the end of the year when they’re probably not competing without a DH, two more solid starting pitchers and some major additions in the pen (thanks for nothing, Herrera.)

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Well they'd obviously want a cornerstone back.   If I'm RH to get them to pickup the phone you're going to have to throw around names.  Giolito would get them talking I'd imagine.  Giolito and then they get the pick 2 of the next 5 guys: Rutherford, Micker, Walker, Basabe Yolbert/etc.  Preferably you'd deal from strength all the time but the Sox aren't in a position to do that really position player wise.  So you get them to buy super high on Gio and then get off pretty easy.

I have no idea if that's even close to his value but Gio + a couple B- guys is a solid opening offer I'd guess.

With one year left on his deal, Giolito is worth significantly more than Betts. Holy overpayment, Batman!

[chitownsportsfan]

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

With one year left on his deal, Giolito is worth significantly more than Betts. Holy overpayment, Batman!

Maybe, but you have to give to get.  Mookie Betts is a legit MVP contender.  You'd likely be moving him -- with his good graces -- so you're moving for him to extend him.  Every team knows that.  There aren't really any mercenary clubs he could even go to for one year.  They ain't trading him to NYY, most other contenders are set in the OF.  They will hold out for a king's ransom or just resign him.

that's my prediction anyways.

Edited October 1, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Maybe, but you have to give to get.  Mookie Betts is a legit MVP contender.  You'd likely be moving him -- with his good graces -- so you're moving for him to extend him.  Every team knows that.  There aren't really any mercenary clubs he could even go to for one year.  They ain't trading him to NYY, most other contenders are set in the OF.  They will hold out for a king's ransom or just resign him.

that's my prediction anyways.

You could get him for Vaughn or Madrigal as the centerpiece. They don't have the payroll room to re-sign him. Even then I wouldn't trade for him. If you want him you can get him for just money in 2021. 

Edited October 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

You could get him for Vaughn or Madrigal as the centerpiece. 

well correct me if I'm wrong but Vaughn can't be traded until June.  Trading Madrigal opens a huge hole at 2B.  Who is a FA at 2B?  There are a lot of solid to great SP on the market.