Would you trade for Mookie Betts, and what would you trade

[3500S]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Doesn’t work like what?  Collins is not on the same planet as Vaughn in terms of being a prospect, so not sure how this Lux theoretical makes any sense.  And previous draft position doesn’t matter when evaluating current prospect value, so your theoretical makes even less sense.  Also, the odds of Vaughn being close to as good as Alonso are much higher than you believe.  Vaughn is the best 1B prospect we’ve seen coming out of the draft in years.  Modern baseball suggests he can be incredibly valuable.  

A lot has to go right for Vaughn to reach that projection. You have to account for that uncertainty.

Draft position doesn't really mean anything anymore. Just because they were regarded differently as amateurs doesn't mean those perceptions will last forever.

[poppysox]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

That’s probably true but it’s even more of a reason to me they need to stack elite players. 

And there is big unknowns with some of those guys. The talent accumulation should have never really stopped but having now seen them give up on international talent and inability to produce from beyond round 1 in the draft this is a decent path forward. 

Now a trade of Vaughn AND cease is too much for me but assuming it could feasibly be one of Madrigal or Vaughn or cease I’d be in.

Zero interest in one year rentals.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, 3500S said:

This is why I have a bit of a feeling that even with Robert enduring some major league adjustments next year may be our best chance. Especially since the Astros will be losing Cole and their next two best starters are 36 and 37 years old.

As of May 1 2020 the minor league pipeline effectively runs dry and your only real hope of finding additional production comes from shrewd trades and free agency. It sucks but next year could very well be their best chance at winning a title with this core.

We still have Vaughn and our 2020 picks... likely another fast mover.   Without major additions, you're also placing a ton of faith in Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Rodon, Dunning, etc. 

[greg775]

5 hours ago, 3500S said:

This is why I have a bit of a feeling that even with Robert enduring some major league adjustments next year may be our best chance.

We better be title contenders for more than one year. If not, Jerry needs to sell the damn team to somebody with money and a clue. Right now, our manager and his staff and arguably our front office look like laughinstocks if we only contend one year.

[ron883]

21 minutes ago, greg775 said:

We better be title contenders for more than one year. If not, Jerry needs to sell the damn team to somebody with money and a clue. Right now, our manager and his staff and arguably our front office look like laughinstocks if we only contend one year.

What is your expectation for the rebuild to consider it a success?

[BackDoorBreach]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

We better be title contenders for more than one year. If not, Jerry needs to sell the damn team to somebody with money and a clue. Right now, our manager and his staff and arguably our front office look like laughinstocks if we only contend one year.

I agree with you Greg.  Teams/Owners should not be telling their fanbase to eat shit after a 4 year rebuild to eat more shit after a year or 2 of success.

There is no reason this team with a few contracts shouldnt compete for 4 or 5 years. 

If Jerry wants to just hoard all of his shekels instead of making a splash, the good news is that he is approaching his mid 80's.  

The only people preventing this team from taking the next step is this front office and ownership.  There are players that will be available that will dramatically improve our chances if Kenny/Rick/Jerry stop playing games.

We'll see, I am anticipating a couple big signings.  If not, then i won't be emptying my wallet out at double digit Sox games next year.

[bmags]

10 hours ago, 3500S said:

This is why I have a bit of a feeling that even with Robert enduring some major league adjustments next year may be our best chance. Especially since the Astros will be losing Cole and their next two best starters are 36 and 37 years old.

As of May 1 2020 the minor league pipeline effectively runs dry and your only real hope of finding additional production comes from shrewd trades and free agency. It sucks but next year could very well be their best chance at winning a title with this core.

See I actually think this is a really interesting idea. One of the huge gap behind this set of older prospects that's about to go from AA to AAA, is in a make or break year. We have this nice foundation of great young players. We have a 4 more in Robert, Vaughn, Madrigal and Cease that everyone feels comfortable as a part of that.

Is that enough? Can we get by with just these tier 2 free agent depth? Do Vaughn and MAdrigal need to be exceptional and not just starters? With early struggles, how many additional years are we waiting for this team to be at 90 wins with depth signings and this core?

The prospects for trade we have will not be that interesting in 2 years. The ones behind that hopefully will be in A+ showing something and could be used as barter.

 

 

[SCCWS]

In the Boston media, I don't think there is a clear reason why Betts wants to be a free agent.  He seems very animated in games and seems to be very much a part of the team. He is from Tennessee so no mention of a West Coast desire.  Obviously in Boston he gets a ton of media attention and plays before big crowd. Never see anything negative about him in the press.  Maybe there was some issue w Dombrowski but time will tell. So I assume he just wants the attention of being "the free agent" and getting a big day day. 

  So I am not sure getting him as a rental gives a team the inside track as it appears he has that in Boston and has turned down supposed big bucks several times.  

[greg775]

10 hours ago, ron883 said:

What is your expectation for the rebuild to consider it a success?

Truthfully? I expect the richest team in the division to use this to get back to 2005 status and this time sustain it. This better not be a KC Royals thing, two or three years of excellence then nothing again. Especially when a team like Minnesota shows time and again how a playoff appearance can in reality mean NOTHING if you are 0-3 or lose the wildcard game. Look ... I was against a rebuild. I think another way to win is to contend every year like a big city team in a crap division should, and compete every single year or 8 of 10 years in a decade.

If Jerry can't spend with the big boys in keeping these star players ... please SELL!

The Royals deserve credit for not blowing it in the postseason like the Twins, but let's say the Royals were flops and got swept in the postseason during their years of excellence. That's a huge failure when you after 3-4 years are back to losing 90 to 100 games every year.

[3500S]

15 hours ago, bmags said:

See I actually think this is a really interesting idea. One of the huge gap behind this set of older prospects that's about to go from AA to AAA, is in a make or break year. We have this nice foundation of great young players. We have a 4 more in Robert, Vaughn, Madrigal and Cease that everyone feels comfortable as a part of that.

Is that enough? Can we get by with just these tier 2 free agent depth? Do Vaughn and MAdrigal need to be exceptional and not just starters? With early struggles, how many additional years are we waiting for this team to be at 90 wins with depth signings and this core?

The prospects for trade we have will not be that interesting in 2 years. The ones behind that hopefully will be in A+ showing something and could be used as barter.

 

 

Its not just about hitting on the prospects its about being better than everyone else. I'll tell you right now a player like Betts isn't going to be available for trade again any time soon, especially at this discounted cost. And anyone hoping the Sox shell out $400m for him next season is crazy, the only way that's even slightly feasible is if Betts wins a title on the South Side and Jerry cant bear to watch him leave.

Right now even if everything goes reasonably well the Sox are still needing some luck to get into the playoffs and will need to really pull a rabbit out of their hat if they want to get past the Yankees or Astros. Add Betts though? Everything changes. Even if its just for one year putting Betts, Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Abreu and Anderson together could be just too much for any pitching staff to reliably handle. And if they kept Madrigal they would be outstanding defensively.

The goal here is win it all. I see trading for Betts as the best way to do that.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, 3500S said:

Its not just about hitting on the prospects its about being better than everyone else. I'll tell you right now a player like Betts isn't going to be available for trade again any time soon, especially at this discounted cost. And anyone hoping the Sox shell out $400m for him next season is crazy, the only way that's even slightly feasible is if Betts wins a title on the South Side and Jerry cant bear to watch him leave.

Right now even if everything goes reasonably well the Sox are still needing some luck to get into the playoffs and will need to really pull a rabbit out of their hat if they want to get past the Yankees or Astros. Add Betts though? Everything changes. Even if its just for one year putting Betts, Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Abreu and Anderson together could be just too much for any pitching staff to reliably handle. And if they kept Madrigal they would be outstanding defensively.

The goal here is win it all. I see trading for Betts as the best way to do that.

What is your realistic trade package that beats at least 8-10 other organizations that can also afford to shell out $28 million for a one season rental, and are arguably closer to the World Series as our roster currently sits today?

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, 3500S said:

Its not just about hitting on the prospects its about being better than everyone else. I'll tell you right now a player like Betts isn't going to be available for trade again any time soon, especially at this discounted cost. And anyone hoping the Sox shell out $400m for him next season is crazy, the only way that's even slightly feasible is if Betts wins a title on the South Side and Jerry cant bear to watch him leave.

Right now even if everything goes reasonably well the Sox are still needing some luck to get into the playoffs and will need to really pull a rabbit out of their hat if they want to get past the Yankees or Astros. Add Betts though? Everything changes. Even if its just for one year putting Betts, Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Abreu and Anderson together could be just too much for any pitching staff to reliably handle. And if they kept Madrigal they would be outstanding defensively.

The goal here is win it all. I see trading for Betts as the best way to do that.

Why are we risking the long-term viability of the rebuild to improve our chances of winning a ring in 2020?  None of this makes any sense IMO.

[3500S]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

What is your realistic trade package that beats at least 8-10 other organizations that can also afford to shell out $28 million for a one season rental, and are arguably closer to the World Series as our roster currently sits today?

Vaughn, Stiever, Walker + something from A-ball. Those are you three most valuable minor leaguers after Madrigal and Robert.

Under no circumstances include Robert or Kopech (Eloy, Giolito and Moncada go without saying).

If push comes to shove I'd include Madrigal or Cease + Vaughn.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, 3500S said:

If push comes to shove I'd include Madrigal or Cease + Vaughn.

Gross

[3500S]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why are we risking the long-term viability of the rebuild to improve our chances of winning a ring in 2020?  None of this makes any sense IMO.

I'm not sure there is much long-term viability because they didn't do well enough (or really well at all) in International signings or the draft these four years. Basically only gotten contributions from first-rounders, and not many of them at that. Adolfo and Hansen have fallen to pieces and of all these outfielders we acquired in trades only Jimenez (the obvious one) has shown enough to be considered ML worthy.

They dribbled the rebuild off their foot but they did do well enough to find what looks to be five or so really elite players. Add an MVP candidate to that and maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle for a year. That may be their best shot mate.

Edited October 9, 2019 by 3500S

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, 3500S said:

I'm not sure there is much long-term viability because they didn't do well enough (or really well at all) in International signings or the draft these four years. Basically only gotten contributions from first-rounders, and not many of them at that. Adolfo and Hansen have fallen to pieces and of all these outfielders we acquired in trades only Jimenez (the obvious one) has shown enough to be considered ML worthy.

They dribbled the rebuild off their foot but they did do well enough to find what looks to be five or so really elite players. Add an MVP candidate to that and maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle for a year. That may be their best shot mate.

I just totally disagree with this assessment.  Moncada, Anderson, Eloy, Robert, Madrigal, & Vaughn is six high-end / elite talents on the positional side.  Giolito, Cease, & Kopech are the same on the pitching side.  Do we need to plug holes?  Most definitely, but we have tons of to do that.  Trading multiple core pieces for one year of Betts (such as your Cease + Madrigal proposal) would be giving up on the rebuilding right when it’s starting to take shape and is completely nonsensical.

[3500S]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just totally disagree with this assessment.  Moncada, Anderson, Eloy, Robert, Madrigal, & Vaughn is six high-end / elite talents on the positional side.  Giolito, Cease, & Kopech are the same on the pitching side.  Do we need to plug holes?  Most definitely, but we have tons of to do that.  Trading multiple core pieces for one year of Betts (such as your Cease + Madrigal proposal) would be giving up on the rebuilding right when it’s starting to take shape and is completely nonsensical.

The really elite ones are Moncada, Eloy, Robert and Giolito. Kopech could be depending how you feel (personally I think he may be the best of the bunch aside from Robert).

Anderson, Madrigal, Vaughn and Cease are a step below those guys. I would also include Reynaldo Lopez in that tier, as he actually showed a lot of things to be encouraged by this year.

Then you've got the quality players filling out the roster like Bummer, Colome, McCann, Abreu.

From what I see this just isn't good enough.

[Thad Bosley]

13 minutes ago, 3500S said:

I'm not sure there is much long-term viability because they didn't do well enough (or really well at all) in International signings or the draft these four years. Basically only gotten contributions from first-rounders, and not many of them at that. Adolfo and Hansen have fallen to pieces and of all these outfielders we acquired in trades only Jimenez (the obvious one) has shown enough to be considered ML worthy.

They dribbled the rebuild off their foot but they did do well enough to find what looks to be five or so really elite players. Add an MVP candidate to that and maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle for a year. That may be their best shot mate.

Been there, done that.  As in 2005, when we ”caught lightning in a bottle for a year”.

It was a lovely experience FOR A YEAR, but 14 years later, and only ONE PLAYOFF WIN since, this team needs to stay the course and build towards a team capable of sustainable winning.  

Betts of course can help achieve that, but only if he’s here for longer than one year.  If that possibility is remote, than the Sox need to take a hard pass in trying to acquire him - especially at the elite prospect cost it would take.  

[3500S]

5 minutes ago, Thad Bosley said:

Been there, done that.  As in 2005, when we ”caught lightning in a bottle for a year”.

It was a lovely experience FOR A YEAR, but 14 years later, and only ONE PLAYOFF WIN since, this team needs to stay the course and build towards a team capable of sustainable winning.  

Betts of course can help achieve that, but only if he’s here for longer than one year.  If that possibility is remote, than the Sox need to take a hard pass in trying to acquire him - especially at the elite prospect cost it would take.  

There's not enough talent right now for sustained winning and zero indication that any of the infrastructure in the development or scouting side of things even slightly exists enough to create a constant flow of assets available for call-up or trade. Even the Cubs with their godly farm system five years ago are now up on the rocks.

Need to come to grips with this reality guys. The fundamental changes that needed to happen in order to give the Sox sustained success are not going to happen. They suck at drafting and they suck at international free agency.

BUT they did nail the Q, Sale and Eaton trades and maybe those assets plus a little bit of luck plus Mookie Betts is enough to win it all or at least give us one hell of a season. I wouldn't expect much more than that.

Edited October 9, 2019 by 3500S

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, 3500S said:

There's not enough talent right now for sustained winning and zero indication that any of the infrastructure in the development or scouting side of things even slightly exists enough to create a constant flow of assets available for call-up or trade. Even the Cubs with their godly farm system five years ago are now up on the rocks.

Need to come to grips with this reality guys. The fundamental changes that needed to happen in order to give the Sox sustained success are not going to happen. They suck at drafting and they suck at international free agency.

BUT they did nail the Q, Sale and Eaton trades and maybe those assets plus a little bit of luck plus Mookie Betts is enough to win it all or at least give us one hell of a season. I wouldn't expect much more than that.

Mods - I’d check if this poster is OneDog / Tommy Longo.  We already know he’s created new accounts in the past and this guy has the same exact posting style as the legendary troll Longo.

[3500S]

Look everyone wants to be the Cardinals or Astros (if they cant have the money of the Yankees or Dodgers)...the fact that the Sox have to settle for cyclical periods of competitiveness just means were like the rest of MLB. And until actual anti-tanking measures are taken and fielding a competitive team year-in-year-out goes back to being the best chance of winning it all... this is what the Sox have to settle for.

Lashing out at the front office or ownership over this fact is not what I'm trying to do. Its hard to be really good at drafting and international free agency.

[caulfield12]

The biggest problem with this whole thing is that the odds of getting past the Twins and Indians NEXT YEAR even with Betts are maybe 10%, and you can increase that to 25-50% if you add another $150-200 million in spending, mostly on the pitching side.

But if it doesn't work, you're suddenly and blows up in your face (just a couple of major pitching injuries), then you're COMPLETELY SCREWED for another half-decade.

We didn't wait patiently through these last 3+ years only to make a desperation Hail Mary play for relevance.

If you traded 2 of Madrigal/Vaughn/Cease, it would take FOREVER to recover.  We're talking about KC Royals 30 years...and the loss of the franchise extinction-level event.

Only an Ilitch-esque or Cuban "free spending" owner in Chicago would be able to save the franchise, and they would actually need to hire THE BEST front office/scouting/development people to pull it all off.

 

We're in the same division with a bunch of small and mid-market teams.

It's absolutely insane that we have to be considering something like this....even SOMEWHAT seriously.

[3500S]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The biggest problem with this whole thing is that the odds of getting past the Twins and Indians NEXT YEAR even with Betts are maybe 10%, and you can increase that to 25-50% if you add another $150-200 million in spending, mostly on the pitching side.

But if it doesn't work, you're suddenly and blows up in your face (just a couple of major pitching injuries), then you're COMPLETELY SCREWED for another half-decade.

We didn't wait patiently through these last 3+ years only to make a desperation Hail Mary play for relevance.

If you traded 2 of Madrigal/Vaughn/Cease, it would take FOREVER to recover.  We're talking about KC Royals 30 years...and the loss of the franchise extinction-level event.

Only an Ilitch-esque or Cuban "free spending" owner in Chicago would be able to save the franchise, and they would actually need to hire THE BEST front office/scouting/development people to pull it all off.

 

We're in the same division with a bunch of small and mid-market teams.

It's absolutely insane that we have to be considering something like this....even SOMEWHAT seriously.

Those figures are crazy pessimistic.

[caulfield12]

31 minutes ago, 3500S said:

Those figures are crazy pessimistic.

It's not ONE team, it's still two.

The Indians won 93, we won twenty less than that.

Unless the Twins for some strange reason (with a youngish core) decided to blow everything up completely...and alienate all the season ticket holders in a relatively new stadium, they're going to be there again.  God knows what the Indians will do, but they're more likely to go for it again than tear things down.

I think you're putting WAY too much stock into Kopech making a big contribution next season.  He would have to be nearly an All-Star level performer, either him or Cease, for any of this to make sense.

[3500S]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It's not ONE team, it's still two.

The Indians won 93, we won twenty less than that.

Unless the Twins for some strange reason (with a youngish core) decided to blow everything up completely...and alienate all the season ticket holders in a relatively new stadium, they're going to be there again.  God knows what the Indians will do, but they're more likely to go for it again than tear things down.

I think you're putting WAY too much stock into Kopech making a big contribution next season.  He would have to be nearly an All-Star level performer, either him or Cease, for any of this to make sense.

You know the Twins went from 78 to 103 wins right? You act like its impossible when it very clearly isn't.