bmags Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 I’d put odds of Rendon leaving Nats at like 20% at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 On 10/9/2019 at 4:49 AM, glangon said: I honestly don't see Hahn signing Rendon. For him to do that, he would have to either put Moncada in the outfield (moving again would not be beneficial to his development) or putting him to DH and I just can't see him doing either, especially not for Rendon's cost and the other areas of need in the team. I'd be surprised to see Rendon in Sox uniform in 2020. Didn't we learn anything last offseason? Signing Anthony Rendon isn't up to Rick Hahn. That's above his pay grade. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 On 10/9/2019 at 8:28 PM, Balta1701 said: Well first of all it's $30 million more than this franchise has ever done, so I do doubt we're going that high. But, I've been surprised before, so I'm not going to say we won't. We could get to that, but if that's our limit - hitting our limit next year is a huge mistake. If we did all those contracts next year and win the Central, which is possible, then maybe playoff revenue supports slight payroll growth in 2021. But let's say that adding those guys takes this 70 win team up to 88 wins, and we miss the Wild Card by 5 or 6 wins since the top of the league is so good. What contracts end after 2021? Let's assume the $10 million pitcher contract ends, Colome's contract ends, Herrera's contract ends, Leury's contract ends. That's $32 million-ish that comes off the books. But, in 2021...Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez all hit arbitration for the first time. If they continue performing at all, that's more than $20 million in new money to pay those guys. Plus, salaries for Anderson, Rodon, Eloy all go up. Assume the team keeps Mr. Lifetime Contract Abreu in 2021 for similar money. In that case, the White Sox's payroll commitments into the 2021 offseason are >$150 million. And that's with no bench and no closer. So, how does your team get any better in 2021 than they were in 2020? You have less than $10 million to spend, and little in the way of new prospects arriving. If your team wins 88 games next year, you lose your closer and bench and rotation depth so your roster is worse on paper, you have little to no youth coming up...how do you get better? You better have someone break out, because now your expensive guys are now a year older. And in 2022, it gets worse, because each of those salaries keeps going up. So, if you go to $160 million this year, and that's your payroll limit without new revenue growth, you better win the Central with ease and soon. If you don't, then in 2022, you're set up to start the next rebuild, because you've got to clear some payroll. You're making an assumption that there's some artificial payroll ceiling of $160 million. If that's actually the case, then we might as well give up on the idea of competing save in fluke years and situations, because that payroll would rank 12th in 2019 MLB. If they're not willing to spend at least near the level of the top teams and they're not willing to out invest the other teams in analytics and player development, then there's no real path forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Dam8610 said: You're making an assumption that there's some artificial payroll ceiling of $160 million. If that's actually the case, then we might as well give up on the idea of competing save in fluke years and situations, because that payroll would rank 12th in 2019 MLB. If they're not willing to spend at least near the level of the top teams and they're not willing to out invest the other teams in analytics and player development, then there's no real path forward. I don't know that $160 million is a ceiling (that's a lot for a franchise that has never spent more than $130m but whatever, lots of new revenue streams are available), but I do know this - the White Sox will have a ceiling imposed by ownership. It could be $110, it could be $160, it could be $180 - they have always operated with one. Whatever that ceiling is...going hard up against it in 2020 with long-term contracts, with no plan for what to do if things go wrong in 2020, is one of the worst mistakes we could make this offseason, given how our internal expenses grow starting in 2021. If you go hard against that ceiling in 2020 - make sure some of it is done with 1 year deals that end so that you have some payroll flexibility in 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 What do others think of signing Rendon and moving Moncada to the OF? I get we don't want to keep shifting Moncada, but he could be elite in the OF. Our offense would be absolutely dangerous. Sign Rendon, Wheeler, fill in the gaps and call it an off-season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, ron883 said: What do others think of signing Rendon and moving Moncada to the OF? I get we don't want to keep shifting Moncada, but he could be elite in the OF. Our offense would be absolutely dangerous. Sign Rendon, Wheeler, fill in the gaps and call it an off-season. I wouldn't mind it if it was a video game. I just wouldn't want to move our franchise player 3x in 3 years when we still haven't extended him. If Yo says he wants to play OF so we could get Rendon fine. Tim Anderson had a lot to say about it during the Manny saga since he potentially was taking his spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: I wouldn't mind it if it was a video game. I just wouldn't want to move our franchise player 3x in 3 years when we still haven't extended him. If Yo says he wants to play OF so we could get Rendon fine. Tim Anderson had a lot to say about it during the Manny saga since he potentially was taking his spot. Baez plays every damn position in the IF if needed. Versatility certainly isn't a bad thing for a players value. Extending Yoan, as with every other player, will come down to $$$. Furthermore, I care about what puts us in the best position to win, not about extending Yoan 3 seasons from now. Edited October 11, 2019 by ron883 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, ron883 said: Baez plays every damn position in the IF if needed. Versatility certainly isn't a bad thing for a players value. Extending Yoan, as with every other player, will come down to $$$. Furthermore, I care about what puts us in the best position to win, not about extending Yoan 3 seasons from now. This how I have always looked at it. More talent = better chance to win. Do i think Yo's hitting abilities are tied to the position he plays ? No. Do I want Yo happy ? Yes Do I think Yo will be unhappy about switching positions again ? Maybe, initially, but he'd get over it hitting next to Rendon in the line up. Key question . Will he be able to play OF or 2nd base well enough to also be an asset in the field ? IDK but I sure wouldn't dismiss the idea based on Yo's unhappiness or the ability to extend him. That may happen regardless Conclusion . Winning makes you happy. Edited October 11, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 On 10/10/2019 at 7:55 AM, Balta1701 said: I put you on the spot to test whether you really believed they'd be the overwhelming favorites and you wouldn't stand behind your own words. Which is 100% correct! Even if they did all that, there would be people who would pick them for the division, but there'd be plenty of reason to pick the other 2 teams. That's why the "all in 2020 or bust" style of buying everything...really isn't the right move. There needs to be a plan for how we get better this year and how we get better in 2021 if this year doesn't go well. Guys like you would argue with the undertaker.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, poppysox said: Guys like you would argue with the undertaker.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 On 10/11/2019 at 3:49 PM, ron883 said: At least have taste and post the real deal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 I'd love to sign Rendon, however, you can add as many bats as you'd like, however pitching wins championships. If you're going to spend $30mm a year, you do it on pitching. The teams that are in this thing at the end of the year are teams like HOU and WAS BECAUSE of their front end starters. You need 3 TOP arms to have a legit shot. Sure there will be exceptions, but theres a reason these teams are left. Right now if you look at our roster.... Kopech - has a shot ... but TJS, innings limitations, etc. He's our best shot at a true top end shut down pitcher in house Giolito - obviously looked strong this year, but we saw the few years before. IMO he's not your game 7 pitcher .... yet. Maybe he gets there. But right now he's a nice 2/3 in an IDEAL situation (aka your Greinke on the Astros, or Corbin/Strasburg on the Nats). Cease - I think at best he's your Anibal Sanchez. Hopefully he can be your 4 that you roll out in the playoffs. IMO you go out and get Gerrit Cole if you truly believe in Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn & your other bats coming up soon. Otherwise wait a year or two and then trade your minor leagues for the Greinke/Cole/etc. that is available in 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 43 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said: I'd love to sign Rendon, however, you can add as many bats as you'd like, however pitching wins championships. If you're going to spend $30mm a year, you do it on pitching. The teams that are in this thing at the end of the year are teams like HOU and WAS BECAUSE of their front end starters. You need 3 TOP arms to have a legit shot. Sure there will be exceptions, but theres a reason these teams are left. Right now if you look at our roster.... Kopech - has a shot ... but TJS, innings limitations, etc. He's our best shot at a true top end shut down pitcher in house Giolito - obviously looked strong this year, but we saw the few years before. IMO he's not your game 7 pitcher .... yet. Maybe he gets there. But right now he's a nice 2/3 in an IDEAL situation (aka your Greinke on the Astros, or Corbin/Strasburg on the Nats). Cease - I think at best he's your Anibal Sanchez. Hopefully he can be your 4 that you roll out in the playoffs. IMO you go out and get Gerrit Cole if you truly believe in Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn & your other bats coming up soon. Otherwise wait a year or two and then trade your minor leagues for the Greinke/Cole/etc. that is available in 2021. Now do the yankees 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 2 hours ago, BrianAnderson said: I'd love to sign Rendon, however, you can add as many bats as you'd like, however pitching wins championships. If you're going to spend $30mm a year, you do it on pitching. The teams that are in this thing at the end of the year are teams like HOU and WAS BECAUSE of their front end starters. You need 3 TOP arms to have a legit shot. Sure there will be exceptions, but theres a reason these teams are left. Right now if you look at our roster.... Kopech - has a shot ... but TJS, innings limitations, etc. He's our best shot at a true top end shut down pitcher in house Giolito - obviously looked strong this year, but we saw the few years before. IMO he's not your game 7 pitcher .... yet. Maybe he gets there. But right now he's a nice 2/3 in an IDEAL situation (aka your Greinke on the Astros, or Corbin/Strasburg on the Nats). Cease - I think at best he's your Anibal Sanchez. Hopefully he can be your 4 that you roll out in the playoffs. IMO you go out and get Gerrit Cole if you truly believe in Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn & your other bats coming up soon. Otherwise wait a year or two and then trade your minor leagues for the Greinke/Cole/etc. that is available in 2021. I agree...lets get Cole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 4 hours ago, bmags said: Now do the yankees Beat me to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 On 10/11/2019 at 10:25 AM, ron883 said: Baez plays every damn position in the IF if needed. Versatility certainly isn't a bad thing for a players value. Extending Yoan, as with every other player, will come down to $$$. Furthermore, I care about what puts us in the best position to win, not about extending Yoan 3 seasons from now. If we took an arguably top 10 player in baseball and moved him to the OF, 20 years from now we'll be talking about how it was one of the dumber moves in memory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 1 minute ago, TaylorStSox said: If we took an arguably top 10 player in baseball and moved him to the OF, 20 years from now we'll be talking about how it was one of the dumber moves in memory. Playing Kris Bryant in the OF for 69 games sure hurt the Cubs in 2016. Yoan is the type of athlete that could handle playing 3B and the OF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, ron883 said: Playing Kris Bryant in the OF for 69 games sure hurt the Cubs in 2016. Yoan is the type of athlete that could handle playing 3B and the OF. There's a difference between using a guy at a less valuable position as a backup plan and going out and spending $220 million to move an already good player to a less valuable position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Rendon flashing the leather tonight. Sign this man! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/13/2019 at 4:45 PM, Balta1701 said: There's a difference between using a guy at a less valuable position as a backup plan and going out and spending $220 million to move an already good player to a less valuable position. I agree. Spend the money where you have the need. Get a right fielder. Gardner is checking a lot of boxes IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 48 minutes ago, poppysox said: I agree. Spend the money where you have the need. Get a right fielder. Gardner is checking a lot of boxes IMO. He’s never played RF though, does he even have the arm for it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: He’s never played RF though, does he even have the arm for it? I think his arm might be a little below par for a right fielder but gets to more balls than the typical right fielder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 After losing Harper and their success this postseason, , I got to think the Nats will pay and Rendon and he will stay. I think any team will have to pay too much to lure him away. Now if he doesn't like DC, or wants brighter lights , then that is a different story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/10/2019 at 6:34 AM, bmags said: I’d put odds of Rendon leaving Nats at like 20% at this point. Well you are Mr. Mister re-sign so you would. I 'll go opposite and say . He becomes a free agent, 75% sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Well you are Mr. Mister re-sign so you would. I 'll go opposite and say . He becomes a free agent, 75% sure. Saying he will become a free agent doesn't mean he won't re-sign with Nats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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