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Predict the 1st Free Agent Signed


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55 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

You say that like it's a fact when it's not.  The Cubs would get something, but not an impactful something.  Front offices do care about their fanbase, but even if they didn't, the Cubs front office is ready to start reshaping their roster.  I'd bet good money that Quintana does not throw another pitch for the Cubs. 

4.0

1.7

3.5

Those are Quintana's fWAR over the past three years. That ranks 24th in all of baseball. The fact that you think that is similar to Nova, and that you believe they'll just let him go (as do others in this thread) is truly baffling.

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1 hour ago, Black_Jack29 said:

The Sox are going to have to pay him more than $16M per year. So if not $20M, you can count on $18M per year if they want him back.

 

Here is a quote from an article on MLBTR today

"players like Kole Calhoun or Jose Abreu will reach free agency coming off 33 home run seasons and stand no chance of receiving the $42MM contract Melky Cabrera got coming off a 16 home run season"

That was the 14 million a year contract the Sox signed Melky for. Unless Abreu accepts a qualifying offer which I think he would if offered. I fully expect the AAV of his new contract to be below what he made in 2019.

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4 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

I wont be.  I think all of those who have these delusions that JR is going to open up the pocket books to win are going to be disappointed.  It will be a bunch of role players surrounding our existing core.   

I agree.  If that is the case, can the Sox compete for a post-season spot with 1.) the returning core, 2.) the addition of Robert and Madrigal, 3.) the return of "TJ Surgery Guys", and 4.) the addition of only mediocre free agents?  

Assuming it takes 92-95 wins to snag a spot, I don't think so.  

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14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

4.0

1.7

3.5

Those are Quintana's fWAR over the past three years. That ranks 24th in all of baseball. The fact that you think that is similar to Nova, and that you believe they'll just let him go (as do others in this thread) is truly baffling.

fWAR flatters Q.  By bWAR he's been about average for three straight seasons and slumped to 1.2 bWAR this year.

They won't dump him for nothing but he's just not the guy he was briefly on the South Side.  He had bWAR of 4.1 and 5.4 his last two seasons with the Sox.  Hasn't come close to that on the Cubs.

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34 minutes ago, credezcrew24 said:

Unless Abreu accepts a qualifying offer which I think he would if offered. I fully expect the AAV of his new contract to be below what he made in 2019.

I wouldn't be surprised if he accepted a qualifying offer, but this is probably his last chance to score a two-year deal (I'm not sure if he'll be able to command a three-year deal) with a good amount of guaranteed money. Given the bounce-back season he just had, he'll be tempted to capitalize on it.

It's going to depend on the FA market. He's in a position where he's worth less per year than his current (2019) contract, and that typically means that he lacks leverage. But he has additional leverage with the Sox because of his history there (including his relationships with the younger players), and the fact that the Sox front office strongly prefers to keep him around for a couple of years, and currently has the financial flexibility to do so. I think that Jose's situation with the Sox is more comparable to Konerko's than Melky's. In his mid-30s, Konerko got a half-million dollar AAV raise, compared to his previous contract. It was also a three-year deal. So there's precedent for the Sox overpaying for a long-time team leader in the twilight of his career.

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30 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

It is a lock, though.  I do agree that a trade probably wouldn't return anything super exciting, because Q is paid perhaps just slightly less than what he's worth on an AAV basis.  But getting something in return is better than getting nothing in return.

Anyways, going to stop posting on this topic because it has virtually nothing to do with White Sox baseball.  

My final comment on this.  I don't know how you can agree that Quintana will be paid just slightly less than what he's worth on an AAV basis and in the same breadth say it's a lock that they pick up his option.  If the Cubs want to move on from him and if his salary next year would be about market value (and any difference only nets a small return in trade), then it's not a lock that they pick up the option.

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15 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

fWAR flatters Q.  By bWAR he's been about average for three straight seasons and slumped to 1.2 bWAR this year.

They won't dump him for nothing but he's just not the guy he was briefly on the South Side.  He had bWAR of 4.1 and 5.4 his last two seasons with the Sox.  Hasn't come close to that on the Cubs.

Idk, his career ERA and FIP are super close so fWAR a better predictor than bWAR imp.

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8 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

My final comment on this.  I don't know how you can agree that Quintana will be paid just slightly less than what he's worth on an AAV basis and in the same breadth say it's a lock that they pick up his option.  If the Cubs want to move on from him and if his salary next year would be about market value (and any difference only nets a small return in trade), then it's not a lock that they pick up the option.

Again - happy to wager any amount of money his option will be picked up.  Teams don't decline one year options on guys on under market deals - even if it is slightly under market.    

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42 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

4.0

1.7

3.5

Those are Quintana's fWAR over the past three years. That ranks 24th in all of baseball. The fact that you think that is similar to Nova, and that you believe they'll just let him go (as do others in this thread) is truly baffling.

I'm not a non-stat guy, but I swear the amount of faith some fans put into fWAR is laughable.  Hey guys, Yolmer Sanchez has 5 fWAR over the last 3 seasons!  He's actually really good!!  Your eyes have been deceiving you this whole time.  Let's sign him to a 5 year deal.

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13 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I'm not a non-stat guy, but I swear the amount of faith some fans put into fWAR is laughable.  Hey guys, Yolmer Sanchez has 5 fWAR over the last 3 seasons!  He's actually really good!!  Your eyes have been deceiving you this whole time.  Let's sign him to a 5 year deal.

5 WAR over 3 years is not good and is below league average.

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31 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I'm not a non-stat guy, but I swear the amount of faith some fans put into fWAR is laughable.  Hey guys, Yolmer Sanchez has 5 fWAR over the last 3 seasons!  He's actually really good!!  Your eyes have been deceiving you this whole time.  Let's sign him to a 5 year deal.

We can tell.

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The cubs are not signing cole. They are trying to cut salary but you think they're going to give a picture 30+ million a year? 

Where have they said they're trying to cut salary? Serious Q, I haven't seen it but I'm at my limit on Tribune articles already.

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3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The cubs are not signing cole. They are trying to cut salary but you think they're going to give a picture 30+ million a year? 

I’m guessing you don’t realize this by now, but Balta will always assume the absolute worst when it comes to the Sox and in that case it’s the Cubs signing the free agent that would be a perfect fit for us.

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7 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I think the pitchers are gonna sign later to wait out the top dogs first. I also think older hitters are gonna want to get the first good deal that is available to them. This being said, I think it is JDM. 

I don’t think the non-Boras guys are going to wait out the Boras guys this year.  I think Wheeler & Bumgarner will move quickly and take advantage of what should be a bigger demand pool.

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15 hours ago, wegner said:

Let's have some predictions for who will be the first free agent signed by the Sox this off season. 

My prediction:  Scooter Gennett

I don't understand all the love on this board for Scooter Gennet.  He's had 3 good seasons.  He will turn 30 next May.  We haven't had a great track record with players from Cincinnati.  I don't think Great American is all that different from hitting at Coors Field.  I understand buying low on a guy but I don't think he's going to give the White Sox a discount with Madrigal behind him and expected up in 2020.

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2 hours ago, Good Guys said:

I don't understand all the love on this board for Scooter Gennet.  He's had 3 good seasons.  He will turn 30 next May.  We haven't had a great track record with players from Cincinnati.  I don't think Great American is all that different from hitting at Coors Field.  I understand buying low on a guy but I don't think he's going to give the White Sox a discount with Madrigal behind him and expected up in 2020.

It's not necessarily love for him, but rather what people think Hahn/Kenny will stretch for.  They enjoy presenting damaged goods as diamonds in the rough.

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3 hours ago, bschmaranz said:

It's not necessarily love for him, but rather what people think Hahn/Kenny will stretch for.  They enjoy presenting damaged goods as diamonds in the rough.

Given our infield and DH situation, unless they think Scooter is their starting RF, I actually like Moustakas as an option more.

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