Projected white sox arbitration salaries 2020

[bmags]

39 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

There is no reason our payroll shouldn't reach 130 this offseason. This is the year we need to improve our roster through FA. Next season we can look for more cosmetic signings. 

Next year's class is awesome though and this class largely sucks outside of pitching. I'd be more amenable to making big splashes on pitching and the calhouns on position side if that's the plan.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'd be fine with that if they upgrade both CF and 2B without utilizing Robert and Madrigal.  I never understood tying Madrigal to 2B I really hoped they'd use him almost like Zobrist when he came up as that would max his value.  Oh well.

What? 

He's a gold glove elite caliber second baseman. Why would you move that around?

Why would you sign a 2nd baseman and a CF'er if your rebuild involves Robert and Madrigal. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

Next year's class is awesome though and this class largely sucks outside of pitching. I'd be more amenable to making big splashes on pitching and the calhouns on position side if that's the plan.

Yes, I'd rather go all pitching and then throwing big money at Betts or Springer to fill your OF hole.

Maybe you sign a Dickerson or someone like that to DH.

[caulfield12]

Rodon honestly could go either way depending on how he looks the last two months of 2020.

They won’t cut him at $4.5 million, though.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Rodon honestly could go either way depending on how he looks the last two months of 2020.

They won’t cut him at $4.5 million, though.

Rodon would be worth more than 4.5 million as a reliever if that's where he needs to go.

That Slider is still an 80 grade and if he uses that out of the bullpen he would be a legit back end stud imo.

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Say what? Who in their right mind would non-tender Carlos Rodon?

It makes a lot of sense actually. He's not coming back until August and there's not enough time for him to rebuild his value in a trade. His agent is Scott Boras, so he's not re-signing for anything reasonable given his injury history. 

Edited October 10, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Black_Jack29]

Rodon is under team control through 2021 and his arb numbers are going to be pretty reasonable for a #2/#3 starter, which the Sox are desperate for right now. You don't let a guy like that walk until he's either a FA or he shows that he can't pitch anymore.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

48 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It makes a lot of sense actually. He's not coming back until August and there's not enough time for him to rebuild his value in a trade. His agent is Scott Boras, so he's not re-signing for anything reasonable given his injury history. 

It makes zero sense. 

Money spent is all about value. Rodon is controlled next year as well and due to limited innings this year his arbitration raise will not be substantial. That means hes likely under 6-7 million next year as well as either a starter or a bullpen piece. Given his stuff, no organization would release a guy like Rodon because hes set to make 11 million over 2 years with one being an injury.

Pineda signed a 2 year deal post injury in which hed sit out the entire first year for 10 million. Rodon is better and can likely go to the bullpen easier than pineda. 

If you keep rodon and he bounces back you could move him next off season for a piece if you felt the need. He's worth more than his contract. If you're non tendering him to save 4.5 million then you arent an organization that's ready to win.

Also who cares who his agent is? Do you think Carlos is going to demand some huge payday with his track record? 

Edited October 10, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

41 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Rodon is under team control through 2021 and his arb numbers are going to be pretty reasonable for a #2/#3 starter, which the Sox are desperate for right now. You don't let a guy like that walk until he's either a FA or he shows that he can't pitch anymore.

He could become a high leverage bullpen arm and be worth 10 million alone. 

I'm not sure how anyone can rationalize saving 4.5 million on the guy.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Rodon is under team control through 2021 and his arb numbers are going to be pretty reasonable for a #2/#3 starter, which the Sox are desperate for right now. You don't let a guy like that walk until he's either a FA or he shows that he can't pitch anymore.

Carlos Rodon is not a #2/#3 starter. He has been a #3 starter-ish quality pitcher for 1 season in his career and that was 4 seasons and 2 severe injuries ago. Aside from that he has been a part-season, fill-in starter who has some periods of dominance and other periods where he struggles mightily.

[Balta1701]

45 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He could become a high leverage bullpen arm and be worth 10 million alone. 

I'm not sure how anyone can rationalize saving 4.5 million on the guy.

First of all it's some element of frustration and being sick of this guy.

Second, our resident physical trainer has suggested that his shoulder injury could lend to him not being able to stay healthy while pitching out of the bullpen. Whether that remains the case after another injury I don't know, but the person here with more expertise than me has said "no" to putting him in the bullpen before for physical reasons.

Third, it's not just $4.5 million, it's also $6 million he'll make in 2021 because if you're bringing him back this year when he's not going to be 100% you're going to be committing even more money to him the next year.

I know I'd probably bring him back given the choice also, but if you're thinking of him as a reliever, you're paying him $10m+ for 1 1/3 seasons, he better be a darn good relief pitcher and we have no way to know that he is yet. $10 million will buy a good, established reliever who will be available for more of the time next season.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

First of all it's some element of frustration and being sick of this guy.

Second, our resident physical trainer has suggested that his shoulder injury could lend to him not being able to stay healthy while pitching out of the bullpen. Whether that remains the case after another injury I don't know, but the person here with more expertise than me has said "no" to putting him in the bullpen before for physical reasons.

Third, it's not just $4.5 million, it's also $6 million he'll make in 2021 because if you're bringing him back this year when he's not going to be 100% you're going to be committing even more money to him the next year.

I know I'd probably bring him back given the choice also, but if you're thinking of him as a reliever, you're paying him $10m+ for 1 1/3 seasons, he better be a darn good relief pitcher and we have no way to know that he is yet. $10 million will buy a good, established reliever who will be available for more of the time next season.

I think you missed the point. His floor is a reliever. Given that one of his pitches still grades out as elite, that's usually a good recipe for success in relief. 

He's still likely a starter. Even at his floor he's worth it, that was the point.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think you missed the point. His floor is a reliever. Given that one of his pitches still grades out as elite, that's usually a good recipe for success in relief. 

He's still likely a starter. Even at his floor he's worth it, that was the point.

Not if he physically cannot stay healthy while pitching out of the bullpen due to needing multiple days of rest between outings.

And one elite pitch does not guarantee success from the bullpen, especially when you still don't know where it is going.

His floor is an injured reliever or a reliever being beaten up with an ERA over 5. His ceiling as a reliever could be much higher, if his body can take it.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Not if he physically cannot stay healthy while pitching out of the bullpen due to needing multiple days of rest between outings.

And one elite pitch does not guarantee success from the bullpen, especially when you still don't know where it is going.

His floor is an injured reliever or a reliever being beaten up with an ERA over 5. His ceiling as a reliever could be much higher, if his body can take it.

He has better slider command than fastball command. He also changes speeds on it. The pitch is built for 3 batters.

He could certainly skate by with his slider - assuming the pitch bounces back post surgery. If he's John Danks 2.0 then he's fucked. 

Either way, non-tendering him would be cheap - not creative or rational.

[Black_Jack29]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Carlos Rodon is not a #2/#3 starter. He has been a #3 starter-ish quality pitcher for 1 season in his career and that was 4 seasons and 2 severe injuries ago. Aside from that he has been a part-season, fill-in starter who has some periods of dominance and other periods where he struggles mightily.

As our rotation is currently constructed, a healthy Rodon would be our #2 or #3. That will hopefully change with the Sox spending on non-mediocre-aging-veteran starters this winter.

Whatever you want to call him, the Sox should definitely hold on to him because he's not going to cost much. He might be able to help this team as a back-of-the-rotation guy or a bullpen arm in 2021.

Edited October 10, 2019 by Black_Jack29

[Balta1701]

12 hours ago, Black_Jack29 said:

As our rotation is currently constructed, a healthy Rodon would be our #2 or #3. That will hopefully change with the Sox spending on non-mediocre-aging-veteran starters this winter.

Whatever you want to call him, the Sox should definitely hold on to him because he's not going to cost much. He might be able to help this team as a back-of-the-rotation guy or a bullpen arm in 2021.

As currently constructed, if Rodon was healthy, he's my #4 starter. I will take guys who are unproven over guys who have proven they're not good pitchers. 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

You guys act like Rodon is a bum. He isn’t. He just can’t stay healthy. When he’s on the mound, he’s definitely good enough to be in the rotation.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

You guys act like Rodon is a bum. He isn’t. He just can’t stay healthy. When he’s on the mound, he’s definitely good enough to be in the rotation.

In this rotation? Sure. In a good team's rotation? Maybe sliding in as the #5 starter. He hasn't been all that good even when healthy.

[SCCWS]

With Rodon certainly questionable, I assume the Sox have to add a quality lefty starter as one of the two FA they need. 

[Black_Jack29]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

As currently constructed, if Rodon was healthy, he's my #4 starter. I will take guys who are unproven over guys who have proven they're not good pitchers. 

I agree with you about Rodon's injury history, but he doesn't exactly suck when he's healthy. A career 101 ERA+ and 1.38 WHP is a reasonable #3 starter on most teams.

 

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Black_Jack29 said:

I agree with you about Rodon's injury history, but he doesn't exactly suck when he's healthy. A career 101 ERA+ and 1.38 WHP is a reasonable #3 starter on most teams.

 

Quickly checking playoff teams...on the Braves that OPS is the 5th starter, on the Nationals that's the 6th starter, tied with Wainright and Mikolas at the back side of the Cardinals rotation, something like the 9th starter for the Dodgers, On the Yankees he's a swingman 3rd-5th starter depending on who's alive, on the Rays he's like a 7th starter, on the Twins he's a 4th starter but promoted because the #3 got suspended, on the A's he's a 5th starter right there with Homer Bailey (But hey another suspension related promotion!), on the Astros he's the 7th starter. Just for good measure he's also the 6th starter on the Indians, and might be lower except for a guy getting leukemia.

So...the only decent team where he's a #3 starter with those numbers out of this season is the Yankees. So yeah, on an average, playoff-missing, .500 team, he's a #3 starter. 

[Black_Jack29]

36 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Quickly checking playoff teams...on the Braves that OPS is the 5th starter, on the Nationals that's the 6th starter, tied with Wainright and Mikolas at the back side of the Cardinals rotation, something like the 9th starter for the Dodgers, On the Yankees he's a swingman 3rd-5th starter depending on who's alive, on the Rays he's like a 7th starter, on the Twins he's a 4th starter but promoted because the #3 got suspended, on the A's he's a 5th starter right there with Homer Bailey (But hey another suspension related promotion!), on the Astros he's the 7th starter. Just for good measure he's also the 6th starter on the Indians, and might be lower except for a guy getting leukemia.

So...the only decent team where he's a #3 starter with those numbers out of this season is the Yankees. So yeah, on an average, playoff-missing, .500 team, he's a #3 starter. 

Yes, which is completely different than "not all that good."

[poppysox]

17 hours ago, Black_Jack29 said:

I agree with you about Rodon's injury history, but he doesn't exactly suck when he's healthy. A career 101 ERA+ and 1.38 WHP is a reasonable #3 starter on most teams.

 

Shows flashes...then again so does Nova.

[pcq]

On 10/11/2019 at 6:48 AM, Balta1701 said:

In this rotation? Sure. In a good team's rotation? Maybe sliding in as the #5 starter. He hasn't been all that good even when healthy.

We have no idea what Rodon is able to do in 2020. You can't really count on his performance. My guess is a half-season of a #3 starter but he could still have shoulder issues. 

[Good Guys]

On 10/9/2019 at 1:19 PM, aeichhor said:

 

White Sox (8)

• Alex Colome – $10.3MM
• James McCann – $4.9MM
• Leury Garcia – $4.0MM
• Carlos Rodon – $4.5MM
• Yolmer Sanchez – $6.2MM
• Ryan Goins – $900K
• Josh Osich – $1.0MM
• Evan Marshall – $1.3MM

I would bring back everyone on that list for that price with the exception of yolmer.  In 2016 the white sox were just below league average ($134 million) with a payroll of $129 million.  They have been in the bottom 5 of payroll the last three years while rebuilding and saved a lot of money.  League average in 2019 was $137 million and that's where I would expect the white sox to get back to if they are remotely serious about contending.  They are currently dead last in pre arbitration payroll for 2020 with $23 million on the books.  There is no reason to save and every reason to spend.  I understand that the white sox will never spend like teams such as the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cubs and I don't expect them to.  But I also don't think they should be that far off teams like the Mets and Angel's which both had $160 million payrolls in 2019 and are also considered to be the second teams in their respective cities. 

Edited October 13, 2019 by Good Guys