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Will Strasburg opt out? thread


Jack Parkman

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10 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Scott Boras is going to run this offseason. The following free agents are all Boras clients:

Cole 

Strasburg 

Ryu

Martinez 

Ozuna

And i'm pretty sure he has others free this year as well. Don't expect anything to happen until 1/15 at the earliest. Boras clients will set the market at almost every position, and especially SP. 

Think Ozuna switched agents recently.

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34 minutes ago, Capital G said:

IMO, you go hard after Ryu, Wheeler, Bumm while everyone else works on Strasburg and Cole. Were not going to outbid others and I'd hate to lose out on the 2nd tier guys while we mess around with Strasburg and Cole. 

Then quickly focus on RF and DH.

I'd like for us to strike early on SP, DH, and RF. Then move focus to BP.

Agreed!  Striking hard on the second tier (Wheeler/Ryu/Bumm) is probably the smart thing to do.  Also, frees up money for the DH acquisitions like Grandal or Martinez  and RF candidates like Ozuna, Casellanos or whomever.  The #1 & #2 starters are probably here with Gio and Kopech or perhaps Cease competing for those roles.

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42 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

100% agree.  Make aggressive bids for Wheeler & Bumgarner right out the gate.  Have to come away with one of those guys for this be a successful offseason IMO.  As much as I’d want Cole or Strasburg, I think the process will be too risky and too drawn out.  

The second priority should be landing one of Grandal or Martinez.  Those guys are true impact bats and none of the other guys that qualify really fit.  RF will definitely be addressed, but I don’t think there is a major free agent fit there and will require more creativity.

I'm a little worried that every team will do this and the market for Wheeler/Bumgarner spooks Hahn & Co.

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10 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Scott Boras is going to run this offseason. The following free agents are all Boras clients:

Cole 

Strasburg 

Ryu

Martinez 

Ozuna

And i'm pretty sure he has others free this year as well. Don't expect anything to happen until 1/15 at the earliest. Boras clients will set the market at almost every position, and especially SP. 

Just means we can do mostof our Christmas shopping at one store. 

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39 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

We've had a year to plan for this offseason, no excuses for them not to be ready for a rush on these guys. 

True, I guess my point is worrying that the dropoff in price for those guys may not be proportional to what people would expect based on their talent/track record. It happens in FA, but I could see a bunch of teams assuming they can't get Cole/Stras, blow up the prices of tier B, and then the market for Cole/Stras is 2 teams (like last year) where thye sign in Feb but still end up with around their asking price.

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Taking a closer look at Nats payroll, they're at $115M including arb costs and likely team options if Stras opts out. Their only other major needs are 1B, part time C, and a couple of high end BP arms. If they re-up with Rendon and Stras for $70M AAV, that still gives them room to work with to address the remaining needs.

So I just don't think Stras is leaving even if he opts out. And if Nats aren't willing to match a 5/$160M contract he gets elsewhere, that may also be telling of how they see his body able to hold up for the duration for the contract.

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3 hours ago, bmags said:

I'm a little worried that every team will do this and the market for Wheeler/Bumgarner spooks Hahn & Co.

I’m hoping the traditional big spenders play the slow game for Cole & Strasburg, but I fully expect teams like the Twins to pursue a similar strategy centered around Wheeler & Bumgarner.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m hoping the traditional big spenders play the slow game for Cole & Strasburg, but I fully expect teams like the Twins to pursue a similar strategy centered around Wheeler & Bumgarner.

My other pet theory is owners (including JR) may try to make a shoe of spending more this offseason to make a less contentious CBA negotiation.

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8 hours ago, bmags said:

My other pet theory is owners (including JR) may try to make a shoe of spending more this offseason to make a less contentious CBA negotiation.

In Bangladesh or Indonesia?  Vietnam?

That said, what is a big show in your idea, bmags?

XXX commitment in additional money for 2020....and XXX commitment in overall dollars from 2020-202_?

 

 

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I think the early bidding battles will center around pitchers who don't have qualifying offers. That is where we should be looking but I think many others will as well. It is a no brainer that if two guys are equal to go for the non qualifier. 

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On 10/15/2019 at 8:21 PM, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, because they really need that TOR arm to take pressure off of Giolito and Kopech. It also invigorates the fanbase and proves that they aren't half-assing the rebuild. After the Samson comments this offseason is really important. They absolutely have to land a bigger name this winter. The Sox have 3 holes on their roster and this fills one  of them. They really only need to spend a lotbfor a TOR starter and a RF. They can be smart about DH. 

This should not play a factor in any signing. They should do what they think is best to help the team have the best opportunity to win a world series. End of story. If any GM makes decision based on what would appease the fans, he will not have a job long. winning will invigorate the Sox fanbase, nothing else.

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8 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I think the early bidding battles will center around pitchers who don't have qualifying offers. That is where we should be looking but I think many others will as well. It is a no brainer that if two guys are equal to go for the non qualifier. 

You know that none of the Boras clients will sign early. He will play them off one another and they won't sign until a month into spring training.

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12 minutes ago, ptatc said:

You know that none of the Boras clients will sign early. He will play them off one another and they won't sign until a month into spring training.

This myth that Boras tells his clients not to sign early is silly, he tells them not to sign an undervalued bid just because that's what is there early. It's entirely possible that could happen to some of these guys, maybe JD Martinez or someone like that again, but the largest pitching free agent contract in history was signed during the Winter Meetings in 2015. But that's not because that's a Boras strategy, that's because the teams are not bidding for some of these guys until there is pressure on them, from spring training. If there are players that there are actually multiple teams bidding for them, then the deals will get done early. Machado and Harper's sides held out last year because the only team that came forward with an early bid expected unreasonably huge discounts; Boras and Machado's agent knew that eventually teams would put fair offers on the table for both and that happened. Teams saw that guys who were valuable had the potential to be underbid, and then bid them both up to reasonable deals. 

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On 10/16/2019 at 6:17 AM, bmags said:

I'm a little worried that every team will do this and the market for Wheeler/Bumgarner spooks Hahn & Co.

Just go after them all and if you can get a Wheeler while negotiating with Stras or Cole you can always bow out or play along until the price gets beyond your comfort level.

 

13 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This myth that Boras tells his clients not to sign early is silly, he tells them not to sign an undervalued bid just because that's what is there early. It's entirely possible that could happen to some of these guys, maybe JD Martinez or someone like that again, but the largest pitching free agent contract in history was signed during the Winter Meetings in 2015. But that's not because that's a Boras strategy, that's because the teams are not bidding for some of these guys until there is pressure on them, from spring training. If there are players that there are actually multiple teams bidding for them, then the deals will get done early. Machado and Harper's sides held out last year because the only team that came forward with an early bid expected unreasonably huge discounts; Boras and Machado's agent knew that eventually teams would put fair offers on the table for both and that happened. Teams saw that guys who were valuable had the potential to be underbid, and then bid them both up to reasonable deals. 

Also with rebuilding teams it narrows the playing field for the free agents.

Yea it's not really the agents dragging things out it's the owners. Expecting any major early signing is tough now . Time is mostly the friend of the owners because the players need jobs and the closer the season gets to starting without a job the more the pressure is on the player. That's how costs have been held down the last few years. Sure the top guys will get their money but guys like Moustakas have been getting screwed. We've seen guys not sign before mid season because of a draft pick attached. We've seen Grandal turn down multi year offers he didn't like to wait, get a year older and bet on himself. Always a risky proposition.

Also rebuilding teams narrow the playing field  for the free agents.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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14 hours ago, ptatc said:

This should not play a factor in any signing. They should do what they think is best to help the team have the best opportunity to win a world series. End of story. If any GM makes decision based on what would appease the fans, he will not have a job long. winning will invigorate the Sox fanbase, nothing else.

These obviously go hand in hand. If the Sox make a move that will seriously bolster this team's chance to win a World Series, that will invigorate the fanbase. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the one team already in the World Series, and the other that is 2 wins from the World Series, are both largely there due to dominating starting pitching.

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