Enlightened Speculation: Yankees AND Dodgers both going strong into FA

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

Isn't Betances available this offseason? We are pretty good at healing torn achilles, maybe give him a 2 year deal and make a 2021 play.

I have no issues with doing this. However I note...it does nothing to improve my 2020 bullpen.

[poppysox]

14 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Yankees are more than likely trading for at least one pitcher.  I've been saying this for months but unless something really drastic changes they aren't going to be in the market for Rendon or Cole.  They have a shit load of assets they actually NEED to trade since they did nothing at the deadline + injuries.

People here and Sox fans in general keep shitting on the Sox in regard to signing the huge names but nobody is in a better position than us.  I think we will be in it for Cole which almost nobody thinks we will be.  That is a franchise changing talent who will be still dominant during our contention years.  If Hahn and Kenny fuck this up again (Not necessarily about Cole, just in general) I'll be getting kicked out of SoxFest this year.

If the asking price for Cole is 35 million for 6 years...I'd offer it right out of the box.  Then I go after Wheeler while Cole thinks over our offer.  Don't fool around with clever incentives.  If Cole counters with 7 years at 245 I give it to him.  If we by some chance we get both of them...get Grandal and Calhoun/Pederson and print the WS tickets.  No more fooling around Rick.  Lets get er done.

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, poppysox said:

If the asking price for Cole is 35 million for 6 years...I'd offer it right out of the box.  Then I go after Wheeler while Cole thinks over our offer.  Don't fool around with clever incentives.  If Cole counters with 7 years at 245 I give it to him.  If we by some chance we get both of them...get Grandal and Calhoun/Pederson and print the WS tickets.  No more fooling around Rick.  Lets get er done.

Playoff contender, sure.  

Baseball just doesn’t allow one or two superstars to get you there...over a deeper team with 10-15 high quality players.

And injuries...

[Balta1701]

19 minutes ago, poppysox said:

If the asking price for Cole is 35 million for 6 years...I'd offer it right out of the box.  Then I go after Wheeler while Cole thinks over our offer.  Don't fool around with clever incentives.  If Cole counters with 7 years at 245 I give it to him.  If we by some chance we get both of them...get Grandal and Calhoun/Pederson and print the WS tickets.  No more fooling around Rick.  Lets get er done.

[poppysox]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Playoff contender, sure.  

Baseball just doesn’t allow one or two superstars to get you there...over a deeper team with 10-15 high quality players.

And injuries...

Count them...we already have 10-15 high quality players.  For the most part playoff winners have two or three stud pitchers.  Fourth and fifth starter are needed to get into the playoffs...the stud top of rotation guys are needed to win playoff series and ultimately the WS.

[caulfield12]

Let’s go by the definition of 2+ fWAR players.

We have six.  You can basically flip Nova and Abreu for the purposes of argument.

Twins have 12 and Pérez at 1.9.

Astros have 11.  Yankees have 11.  Cubs have 11.   Dodgers have 10.

 

Then you have to consider how many have the potential to be true studs...and that’s Moncada, Giolito and Robert.  Jimenez will always be suppressed by defense/position and we have no earthly idea what Kopech and Cease are going to do.

If the White Sox aren’t willing to spend $150-175 million, then a Cole contract blowing up in their faces is devastating.  Just like the Kopech injury was to the 2018/19 seasons to those forecasting an earlier push to competitiveness/respectability.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2019 by caulfield12

[poppysox]

34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Let’s go by the definition of 2+ fWAR players.

We have six.  You can basically flip Nova and Abreu for the purposes of argument.

Twins have 12 and Pérez at 1.9.

Astros have 11.  Yankees have 11.  Cubs have 11.   Dodgers have 10.

 

Then you have to consider how many have the potential to be true studs...and that’s Moncada, Giolito and Robert.  Jimenez will always be suppressed by defense/position and we have no earthly idea what Kopech and Cease are going to do.

If the White Sox aren’t willing to spend $150-175 million, then a Cole contract blowing up in their faces is devastating.  Just like the Kopech injury was to the 2018/19 seasons to those forecasting an earlier push to competitiveness/respectability.

 

 

 

 

If your idea of "above average player" doesn't include the AL batting champion and the All Star Catcher...not much interested in how you evaluate above average.

[BackDoorBreach]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Let’s go by the definition of 2+ fWAR players.

We have six.  You can basically flip Nova and Abreu for the purposes of argument.

Twins have 12 and Pérez at 1.9.

Astros have 11.  Yankees have 11.  Cubs have 11.   Dodgers have 10.

 

Then you have to consider how many have the potential to be true studs...and that’s Moncada, Giolito and Robert.  Jimenez will always be suppressed by defense/position and we have no earthly idea what Kopech and Cease are going to do.

If the White Sox aren’t willing to spend $150-175 million, then a Cole contract blowing up in their faces is devastating.  Just like the Kopech injury was to the 2018/19 seasons to those forecasting an earlier push to competitiveness/respectability.

 

 

 

 

We have 7 2 fWar players not including Nova and round Eloy and Abreu from 1.9 to 2.

Robert's floor is probably 2. So theres 8. And if they are spending 150-175 million in FA that's another 3 players above 2 fWar, which is 11.  I don't know what Madrigal,Cease, or Kopech are going to do next year but there's a good chance 1 or 2 of those guys are above 2 fWar.

Edited October 19, 2019 by BackDoorBreach

[caulfield12]

We have six.

I didn’t round 1.9 up for all the other teams, either...because it’s 1.9, not 2.0.  Then I would have counted the Twins at 13.

Nova is one.  Jimenez and Abreu at 1.9.

 

So sure, if we can add at least five more 2 fWAR contributors...and not get truly abysmal numbers like we did from Alonso, Castillo, Palka, Cordell, etc.

If we’re going to count on McCann repeating and Kopech/Cease/Lopez and signing at least 4 “good to very good” free agents and at least THREE of them succeeding.  

But, even then, we’re still a long ways behind the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, etc.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Well, some would say that a closer's main job is to be a good pitcher. Colome had a .491 OPS in save situations, but gave up a .773 OPS and a 3.95 ERA in non-save situations, so he really couldn't be counted on to say, pitch as a setup man or pitch the 10th inning in a tie game, or at least an elite team wouldn't be able to use him that way. Chapman put up a .529 OPS in save situations and a .555 OPS in non-save situations, so your entire statement that Colome was "slightly more effective" hangs on that stat. And as we've seen, teams these days will use closers in high-leverage situations that aren't save situations, or in the 10th inning of tie games, to try to preserve the chance to get a win, so the "Save situation" split only should get you so far. 

That said, I want Aroldis Chapman no where near any franchise I'm cheering for.

Some might but most wouldn't .It's every pitchers job to be a good pitcher but when you have a specific job that's how you are measured. Closer means close out the game, Preserve the lead for the W. I wasn't saying Colome is better than Chapman, I mean Chapman is better. That's obvious without you telling me the stats in non save situations. The K's, the stuff, the big salary are all pretty good indications of how good he is.

When a certain role is yours sometimes guys have a hard time pitching outside that role. Just ask Kershaw .

[BackDoorBreach]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

We have six.

I didn’t round 1.9 up for all the other teams, either...because it’s 1.9, not 2.0.  Then I would have counted the Twins at 13.

Nova is one.  Jimenez and Abreu at 1.9.

 

So sure, if we can add at least five more 2 fWAR contributors...and not get truly abysmal numbers like we did from Alonso, Castillo, Palka, Cordell, etc.

If we’re going to count on McCann repeating and Kopech/Cease/Lopez and signing at least 4 “good to very good” free agents and at least THREE of them succeeding.  

But, even then, we’re still a long ways behind the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, etc.

We would also be in our first year "out of rebuild".  All of those teams are very well established.  I understand you are doing the 2 fWar thing to compare other teams to the Sox but it's pretty arbitrary.  The Braves had 7 2+ fWar players, the Cardinals had 8 and both finished above the Cubs who had 11.

The Sox are a couple pieces and improvement from young guys away from competing.  Twins are losing one of their best pitchers more than likely and hit on almost all of their aquisitions.  Cleveland has one of the better rotations in the league but have big holes in their lineup.  They also went like 15-1 against Detroit which won't happen again.  My point is if Jerry opens his pocket book and not his change purse we will be a very competitive team next year. 

[Jack Parkman]

Preparing for the pitching adds to be Odorizzi and Wood, and the offense adds to be Gregory Polanco and Justin Smoak. 

There's going to be too much competition this winter to expect anyone else. 

Edited October 19, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Preparing for the pitching adds to be Odorizzi and Wood, and the offense adds to be Gregory Polanco and Justin Smoak. 

There's going to be too much competition this winter to expect anyone else. 

I think you’re aiming too high TBH.  I think we sign a couple of Nova type pitchers (say Roark & Wacha) and then add Puig & Adam Jones to plug our RF & DH holes.  Just too much competition to expect much more than that.  Puig will be sold as the big offseason addition because someone has to be the guy and he theoretically has some star appeal.  Maybe if we’re lucky we add a backup catcher to allow Collins to DH some, but I’m not even holding my breath there.

Edited October 19, 2019 by Chicago White Sox

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

21 hours ago, Sarava said:

Didn't Ozuna hit .216 after the allstar break, or something like that? I mean, anyone's an upgrade with how bad RF was for the Sox, but that doesn't mean we have to settle for crap.

Not exactly sure why we are using batting average, especially half a season's worth, to judge a player, but Ozuna hit .219 in the 2nd half. Also saw his BB% spike to 14% and his K% fall slightly. Not to say he had a good 2nd half, but using one empty metric to make the decision is strange.

He's a 2.5-3 fWAR guy. We haven't had an OF break even 2.0 fWAR in either of the last 2 seasons.

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think you’re aiming too high TBH.  I think we sign a couple of Nova type pitchers (say Roark & Wacha) and then add Puig & Adam Jones to plug our RF & DH holes.  Just too much competition to expect much more than that.  Puig will be sold as the big offseason addition because someone has to be the guy and he theoretically has some star appeal.  Maybe if we’re lucky we add a backup catcher to allow Collins to DH some, but I’m not even holding my breath there.

Truly scary.   This year’s Jones or Kendrick is next year’s Lowrie, Zobrist or Keppinger.

If that’s the very best we can do...especially on the pitching front...it’s going be about as bleak a dystopian/apocalyptic universe at GRF in 2020 as Zombieland.

It would be one thing if we had a systematized, modernistic pitching and analytics approach to maximize the talent of veteran pitchers.

Instead, we have Montgomery Burns.

[Chicago White Sox]

32 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Truly scary.   This year’s Jones or Kendrick is next year’s Lowrie, Zobrist or Keppinger.

If that’s the very best we can do...especially on the pitching front...it’s going be about as bleak a dystopian/apocalyptic universe at GRF in 2020 as Zombieland.

It would be one thing if we had a systematized, modernistic pitching and analytics approach to maximize the talent of veteran pitchers.

Instead, we have Montgomery Burns.

There’s going to be a ton of competition though, I really think it’s crazy to expect much more that.  Honestly, I even think us landing Roark is a bit of a stretch.  Change that to Matt Moore & Wacha instead.  Not the sexiest offseason, but I’m trying to be realistic here.  The Sox simply don’t have a track record of being successful in free agency.  People who think we’ll even land a third tier arm like Odorizzi are nuts.  We’re going to have to win with our home-grown talent, because we can’t count on free agency to bare any fruit for us while Jerry is still around.  It’s just not happening...

[Sarava]

4 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Not exactly sure why we are using batting average, especially half a season's worth, to judge a player, but Ozuna hit .219 in the 2nd half. Also saw his BB% spike to 14% and his K% fall slightly. Not to say he had a good 2nd half, but using one empty metric to make the decision is strange.

He's a 2.5-3 fWAR guy. We haven't had an OF break even 2.0 fWAR in either of the last 2 seasons.

His WAR was 2.2 and trending downwards. I mean, Cardinal fans don't seem to want him back all that much. Whatever they do, this guy is risky. Because he's going to get paid somewhat based on his potential to return to his Marlins form from from 3 seasons ago. Seems like a risky bad contract some team might be diving in to.

And for the love of God, can we please stop using our bad production in RF as justification for bringing in some guys.

[caulfield12]

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There’s going to be a ton of competition though, I really think it’s crazy to expect much more that.  Honestly, I even think us landing Roark is a bit of a stretch.  Change that to Matt Moore & Wacha instead.  Not the sexiest offseason, but I’m trying to be realistic here.  The Sox simply don’t have a track record of being successful in free agency.  People who think we’ll even land a third tier arm like Odorizzi are nuts.  We’re going to have to win with our home-grown talent, because we can’t count on free agency to bare any fruit for us while Jerry is still around.  It’s just not happening...

If we can’t even handle guys like Odorizzi, Wheeler (or Shark, another equivalent)...then almost everything’s going to have to come from the draft and trades.   And we’re not going to have any more Top Ten picks to rely upon.

The clock is already ticking with Giolito and Moncada.

I mean, if the Tampa Bay Rays can at least afford Charlie Morton or the Padres occupy a universe where they can contemplate four $20+ million contracts simultaneously, what exactly does that say about us?

[Sarava]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There’s going to be a ton of competition though, I really think it’s crazy to expect much more that.  Honestly, I even think us landing Roark is a bit of a stretch.  Change that to Matt Moore & Wacha instead.  Not the sexiest offseason, but I’m trying to be realistic here.  The Sox simply don’t have a track record of being successful in free agency.  People who think we’ll even land a third tier arm like Odorizzi are nuts.  We’re going to have to win with our home-grown talent, because we can’t count on free agency to bare any fruit for us while Jerry is still around.  It’s just not happening...

Whoa, we're you just calling for Zack Wheeler a few days ago? Why all of the sudden do you expect this winter to be a big flop?

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Whoa, we're you just calling for Zack Wheeler a few days ago? Why all of the sudden do you expect this winter to be a big flop?

Oh I don’t expect the offseason to be a flop, just wanted to see if posting some ridiculously pessimistic shit actually felt good given all the negativity around here.  Unfortunately, it just made me feel like a little b**** and I don’t get the allure of being pessimistic all the time.

That being said, this idea there is too much competition to expect anyone impactful (cough Jack Parkman cough) is beyond fucking absurd.  We are better suited to add impact talent this offseason than any team in baseball.  I don’t give a fuck if there is no track record, given our payroll flexibility the expectation has to be multiple impactful pieces are added.  At this point there are no more fucking excuses to not get shit done and I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt until they don’t.  I refuse to live my life under Murphy’s Law and assume the worst at all times...just a sad way to go about life.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Oh I don’t expect the offseason to be a flop, just wanted to see if posting some ridiculously pessimistic shit actually felt good given all the negativity around here.  Unfortunately, it just made me feel like a little b**** and I don’t get the allure of being pessimistic all the time.

That being said, this idea there is too much competition to expect anyone impactful (cough Jack Parkman cough) is beyond fucking absurd.  We are better suited to add impact talent this offseason than any team in baseball.  I don’t give a fuck if there is no track record, given our payroll flexibility the expectation has to be multiple impactful pieces are added.  At this point there are no more fucking excuses to not get shit done and I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt until they don’t.  I refuse to live my life under Murphy’s Law and assume the worst at all times...just a sad way to go about life.

If you were a Twins’ fan, would you still believe they capable of beating the Yankees at least once?

As bad as the Twins got into the heads of White a Sox fans from 2002-2010...at least we had 2005 and 2008.

Never succeeding....not even once...in 15 or 16 consecutive tries?

 

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If you were a Twins’ fan, would you still believe they capable of beating the Yankees at least once?

As bad as the Twins got into the heads of White a Sox fans from 2002-2010...at least we had 2005 and 2008.

Never succeeding....not even once...in 15 or 16 consecutive tries?

 

Yeah I would... I don’t believe in curses.

[caulfield12]

Twins and White Sox basically have the same arguments for not spending huge in free agency.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-definitely-could-use-a-big-free-agent-but-history-shows-the-perils/563300722/

http://www.startribune.com/the-five-biggest-offseason-questions-for-the-twins/563393912/

The White Sox have to wait on Kopech, Lopez and Cease...just like the Twins with Berrios and Graterol (has never pitched more than 102 innings.)

Both teams will eventually need elite closers...but don’t like to pay $14-18 million for said pitchers.

Twins have the more complete offense and flexibility to trade offense for pitching...but will the asking price for Syndegaard or Matthew Boyd be too steep?

[Sarava]

20 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Oh I don’t expect the offseason to be a flop, just wanted to see if posting some ridiculously pessimistic shit actually felt good given all the negativity around here.  Unfortunately, it just made me feel like a little b**** and I don’t get the allure of being pessimistic all the time.

That being said, this idea there is too much competition to expect anyone impactful (cough Jack Parkman cough) is beyond fucking absurd.  We are better suited to add impact talent this offseason than any team in baseball.  I don’t give a fuck if there is no track record, given our payroll flexibility the expectation has to be multiple impactful pieces are added.  At this point there are no more fucking excuses to not get shit done and I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt until they don’t.  I refuse to live my life under Murphy’s Law and assume the worst at all times...just a sad way to go about life.

Phew...you scared me there. It's funny you mentioned Jack Parkman. I thought it was a very Parkman-esque post. Good job there.

And I agree.  I bag on Reinsdorf for being cheap as much as anyone, but I'm going to believe until shown otherwise. He broke his mold with Luis Robert, and I think it's time to break some other molds this winter. At least one particular mold that has been idle for the last 23 years.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Phew...you scared me there. It's funny you mentioned Jack Parkman. I thought it was a very Parkman-esque post. Good job there.

And I agree.  I bag on Reinsdorf for being cheap as much as anyone, but I'm going to believe until shown otherwise. He broke his mold with Luis Robert, and I think it's time to break some other molds this winter. At least one particular mold that has been idle for the last 23 years.

All of the Final 4 teams were Top 8 in payroll, fwiw.

Yankees 3rd, Dodgers 4th, Cardinals 6th, Astros 7th, Nationals 8th.

#8 was almost $170 million, fwiw.

 

League average at $137 million, between the Braves and Rangers.