Zack Wheeler Thread

[fathom]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

Would have to imagine Wheeler is the Sox FA pitcher of choice, along with likely Grandal on the position player side. Then again, they could cheap out and we are way off. 

MadBum is, IMO

[Lillian]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Great spin rate on his offspeed with an electric elevated 4 seamer - guy was built for Houston.

If he is really that good, I'm all onboard. I haven't really seen him pitch, and my judgement was influenced by the stats. Do you honestly think that he has a realistic chance of being a #1 or 2?

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You're citing this while also citing FG's as the barometer setter - FG's did not have manny exceeding 275 million.

I am not citing FG as the barometer.  I am just sharing the relevant information released by FG this am.  I did not recall McDaniel's predictions from last offseason, but obviously that is an important set of data.  I do feel like McDaniel's estimates, on the whole, were light - so would not be surprised to hear that is a trend.    

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If he is really that good, I'm all onboard. I haven't really seen him pitch, and my judgement was influenced by the stats. Do you honestly think that he has a realistic chance of being a #1 or 2?

Yes. I like Wheeler - at this price - more than Stras at his price. I'd take Cole obviously over him, but it's hard to beat that ceiling with his price.

I've been a huge Wheeler fan for the past two years. I worry a bit about a sharp cliff because his fastball is so effective and reliant on velocity, but it would be hard not to get excited about the signing.

I'd like to get a look inside the White Sox analytic department - would love to see how archaic or not they are. I imagine I wouldn't be blown away which sucks, but it would be interesting just to see their expected market numbers.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I am not citing FG as the barometer.  I am just sharing the relevant information released by FG this am.  I did not recall McDaniel's predictions from last offseason, but obviously that is an important set of data.  I do feel like McDaniel's estimates, on the whole, were light - so would not be surprised to hear that is a trend.    

I have their projections vs actual since 2014. In general they were short on mid-tier arms, high on corner outfielders (puig resonates loudly this year as being a bit aggressive as I feel mine is as well) and high on mid tier bats and pretty spot on at the top.

[Sleepy Harold]

Not unexpected, but confirmed. 

[BamaDoc]

It is interesting that on Wheeler you are paying premium dollars on future projection.  Usually in free agency guys are getting money for past performance.  He will be a test case for the analytic evolution applied to free agency.  

[Eminor3rd]

Wheeler has been quietly very good and very healthy for two seasons now. I would be thrilled if the White Sox got him.

However, I think a ton of teams are looking at him as a more affordable alternative to Cole/Stras, meaning he likely won’t actually end up all that affordable. 

[southsideirish71]

15 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Wheeler has been quietly very good and very healthy for two seasons now. I would be thrilled if the White Sox got him.



However, I think a ton of teams are looking at him as a more affordable alternative to Cole/Stras, meaning he likely won’t actually end up all that affordable. 

I look forward to the 3rd tier offers we try to toss to these FA's with opt outs, magical deferred dollars and pretend better value based on team options based on tunable playing time.    In the end we will bargain hunt for FAs looking to rebuild their value, coming off injury, or a few years removed from success.  Other teams are going to outbid us for these front line players.  And Hahn is not going to wait until February to build his team for primary free agents.  It will be quantity over quality this offseason.   Look we spent the money will be the moniker.  

 

I would get Cole, Wheeler, JD for DH and a RF and call it an offseason.   We have the money.  There are no excuses.  I am ready however for the excuses on near misses and almost wins this offseason.  We will know how its going based on the number of whitesox leaks.   When Kennys guy starts negotiating for us in the twitters.  You know you are fucked.  

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by southsideirish71

[steveno89]

2 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

I look forward to the 3rd tier offers we try to toss to these FA's with opt outs, magical deferred dollars and pretend better value based on team options based on tunable playing time.    In the end we will bargain hunt for FAs looking to rebuild their value, coming off injury, or a few years removed from success.  Other teams are going to outbid us for these front line players.  And Hahn is not going to wait until February to build his team for primary free agents.  It will be quantity over quality this offseason.   Look we spent the money will be the moniker.  

 

I would get Cole, Wheeler, JD for DH and a RF and call it an offseason.   We have the money.  There are no excuses.  I am ready however for the excuses on near misses and almost wins this offseason.  We will know how its going based on the number of whitesox leaks.   When Kennys guy starts negotiating for us in the twitters.  You know you are fucked.  

 

1) Unknown if Martinez will opt out. If he does and the Sox want to sign him it would have to be for at least $70 million over the next three seasons.

2) All of us would love Cole, but he's getting at least seven years, likely getting opt outs, and will be at least +$34 million per season. Rumors are he prefers the west coast, and expect the Yankees to be involved as well.

3) Wheeler is likely to get around $20 million per season on a multi year deal. 

Those three players combined will earn at least $78 million in 2020 and beyond. I see us being active and spending in FA, but not to that level. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

1) Unknown if Martinez will opt out. If he does and the Sox want to sign him it would have to be for at least $70 million over the next three seasons.

2) All of us would love Cole, but he's getting at least seven years, likely getting opt outs, and will be at least +$34 million per season. Rumors are he prefers the west coast, and expect the Yankees to be involved as well.

3) Wheeler is likely to get around $20 million per season on a multi year deal. 

Those three players combined will earn at least $78 million in 2020 and beyond. I see us being active and spending in FA, but not to that level. 

If Wheeler is out of their price range they will never be ready to compete in the modern game. 

You could argue it's reasonable for Cole to be out of their price range, but Wheeler and Martinez? That would just mean the White Sox were never ready to compete and were never serious about it. 

That doesn't mean they should sign those players no matter what - they shouldn't exceed some crazy number just to make a point - but they should certainly be in the conversations and making elite level competitive offers.

[steveno89]

15 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If Wheeler is out of their price range they will never be ready to compete in the modern game. 

You could argue it's reasonable for Cole to be out of their price range, but Wheeler and Martinez? That would just mean the White Sox were never ready to compete and were never serious about it. 

That doesn't mean they should sign those players no matter what - they shouldn't exceed some crazy number just to make a point - but they should certainly be in the conversations and making elite level competitive offers.

Wheeler and Martinez are not out of our price range, my argument was moreso that the Sox do not have the resources to ink Cole, Wheeler and Martinez this offseason and still field a competitive overall roster. We have needs beyond those three guys. 

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

It is interesting that on Wheeler you are paying premium dollars on future projection.  Usually in free agency guys are getting money for past performance.  He will be a test case for the analytic evolution applied to free agency.  

How can the #9 fWAR pitcher over the last two seasons equate to just a #3 or mostly “future projection“ when he’s already there statistically...ala Q coming into 2017, but with TOR stuff to go with it?

[turnin' two]

Julio Teheran had his option declined by the Braves.  He is a guy that isn't a TOR guy, but another guy that would fit into the middle of a rotation.  He is younger than Wheeler, and has been a workhorse throughout his career.  Overall he has better numbers than Wheeler, though Wheeler has been better the last 2 seasons, Teheran could be another viable candidate for a mid/back rotation guy.  Certainly an upgrade over the guys the Sox have had, and will likely be at the budget shopping level comfortable for the Sox.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Julio Teheran had his option declined by the Braves.  He is a guy that isn't a TOR guy, but another guy that would fit into the middle of a rotation.  He is younger than Wheeler, and has been a workhorse throughout his career.  Overall he has better numbers than Wheeler, though Wheeler has been better the last 2 seasons, Teheran could be another viable candidate for a mid/back rotation guy.  Certainly an upgrade over the guys the Sox have had, and will likely be at the budget shopping level comfortable for the Sox.

I’m going to take a wild guess that he has well more than 750 ip in his career...despite the age difference.

Let’s not forget LatAm pitchers are essentially 2-3 years older because of extended wear and tear starting in their early teens.  Look no further than Felix Hernandez, not that age doesn’t catch up with everyone eventually.

Edited November 4, 2019 by caulfield12

[poppysox]

6 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Wheeler has been quietly very good and very healthy for two seasons now. I would be thrilled if the White Sox got him.

However, I think a ton of teams are looking at him as a more affordable alternative to Cole/Stras, meaning he likely won’t actually end up all that affordable. 

The qualifying offer will help suppress his interest level a bit.  My guess is 4 years at about 75 M gets it done.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Kiley McDaniel at FG predicted 4/$68M for Wheeler.  While I think he will beat that, this proves the $130-$150M talk was in fact crazy.

 

Given he’s tied to a compensation pick and has some health concerns (sounds like his shoulder in particular), I think 5/$100M is a reasonable high end figure for him.  I think upside will get him close to that number though.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

According to fWAR, Wheeler has been the 9th best starter in baseball since the start of 2018; I'd say that's TOR talent.

Yeah, this TOR starter talk is crazy.  Is Wheeler an ace?  No, but if you consider top of the rotation to mean a #1 or #2 starter then he most definitely fits the bill.  There’s probably less than a dozen teams he wouldn’t be the #2 starter on and he’s still got some untapped potential.  If he can stay healthy, he could be the steal of this free agent class.  I definitely could see the Astros being all over him.

[Good Guys]

On 11/4/2019 at 6:21 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, this TOR starter talk is crazy.  Is Wheeler an ace?  No, but if you consider top of the rotation to mean a #1 or #2 starter then he most definitely fits the bill.  There’s probably less than a dozen teams he wouldn’t be the #2 starter on and he’s still got some untapped potential.  If he can stay healthy, he could be the steal of this free agent class.  I definitely could see the Astros being all over him.

The Astros don't currently have a lot of payroll flexibility this offseason to make a big signing and remain under the luxury tax.

[wsox05]

Yeah the Astros have almost no money to spend at the moment. I have them slightly over the luxury tax as of now after I put in their arbitration numbers. 

 

Jim Crane has always said he won’t go into the tax until yesterday, but nobody believes him. They tried to get Wheeler at the deadline, but they just don’t have the money unless they’re trading multiple pieces. Reddick will be traded and that frees up only $13M. 
 

plus if they go into the tax, it’ll be to keep Cole. 

[caulfield12]

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-best-baseball-MLB-free-agents-2019-2020-14810780.php#photo-18415774
 

Astros’ writer has Wheeler at 4, projecting he’s their 1A target after Cole...spin rate, analytics, a bit underperforming, perfect material for that organization to mold, 4 years, $80 million

 

5.Bumgarner

6.Ryu

7.Grandal

8.Keuchel

9.Odorizzi

10.Donaldson

11-20   Ozuna, Castellanos, Hamels, Will Smith, Moose, Didi, Will Harris, Pomeranz (nobody has mentioned), D. Hudson, Betances

21-30   Abreu, Pineda, Roark, Gibson, Kendrick, Chirinos, d’Arnaud, Castro, Teheran, Puig

31-33   Avi, EE, Gardner

 

No Alex Wood, Rich Hill or Dickerson.  Twins could lose three pitchers from this list, in addition to Martin Perez.

Edited November 6, 2019 by caulfield12

[BamaDoc]

On 11/4/2019 at 4:10 PM, turnin' two said:

Julio Teheran had his option declined by the Braves.  He is a guy that isn't a TOR guy, but another guy that would fit into the middle of a rotation.  He is younger than Wheeler, and has been a workhorse throughout his career.  Overall he has better numbers than Wheeler, though Wheeler has been better the last 2 seasons, Teheran could be another viable candidate for a mid/back rotation guy.  Certainly an upgrade over the guys the Sox have had, and will likely be at the budget shopping level comfortable for the Sox.

I was intrigued but not after digging.  His average fastball velocity has been dropping each year.  Formerly around 93 now 89.9!  That doesn't work for many people.  His walk rate is rising so it appears he is nibbling with lesser stuff.  Unless something is seen mechanically where you think you get velocity back, I would avoid.

[EloyJenkins]

20 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I was intrigued but not after digging.  His average fastball velocity has been dropping each year.  Formerly around 93 now 89.9!  That doesn't work for many people.  His walk rate is rising so it appears he is nibbling with lesser stuff.  Unless something is seen mechanically where you think you get velocity back, I would avoid.

I go to some Braves games (live down the street from the stadium)...we want nothing to do with Teheran. He is Javy all over again...Had the stuff...never the head space...and now the stuff is fading fast. IF he is a cheap reclamation project as our #2 FA pitcher and a bridge until Rodon is back...that is fine. But no long term deals should be handed to this guy. 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, EloyJenkins said:

I go to some Braves games (live down the street from the stadium)...we want nothing to do with Teheran. He is Javy all over again...Had the stuff...never the head space...and now the stuff is fading fast. IF he is a cheap reclamation project as our #2 FA pitcher and a bridge until Rodon is back...that is fine. But no long term deals should be handed to this guy. 

He's a reasonable candidate as a "6th starter", who takes some starts until Kopech is ready, moves back and forth to the bullpen a couple times, maybe does some injury-replacement stars during the year. 

[EloyJenkins]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He's a reasonable candidate as a "6th starter", who takes some starts until Kopech is ready, moves back and forth to the bullpen a couple times, maybe does some injury-replacement stars during the year. 

correct. Just not a MOR starter as was mentioned. that ship has sailed on him.