Zack Wheeler Thread

[Balta1701]

13 hours ago, bmags said:

 

Hypothetically speaking, if the White Sox put 5/$95 on the table and Houston put 4/$80 on the table, given that Texas has no income tax and that would cover 1/2 his season, and you can also look at the jumps players like Morton, Cole have made when they've worked with the Astros system, would anyone consider the Astros as having a better offer? I might.

[KillahPriest]

42 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I have to admit...that list is gruesome.

I'm not at all a huge fan of Hahn & Co. and the drafting they've done, but at the end of the day they're 2nd round picks in baseball.  How many teams actually make a killing drafting in the 2nd round?  Here are a few examples of some teams that everyone considers to have exceptional scouting, especially compared to the Sox:

 

Astros Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: Nolan Fotana

2013: Andrew Thurman

2014: A.J. Reed

2015: Tom Eshelman

2016: Ronnie Dawson 

2017: Joe Perez/Corbin Martin/J.J. Matijevic

2018: Jayson Shroeder

2019: Grae Kessinger

 

Rays Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2013: Riley Unroe

2014: Brent Honeywell Jr./Cameron Varga

2015: Chris Betts

2016: Jake Fraley /Ryan Boldt

2017: Michael Mercado

2018: Tanner Dodson/Tyler Frank

2019: John Doxakis

 

Twins Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: J.T. Chargois/Mason Meoltakis

2013: Ryan Eades

2014: Nick Burdi

2015: Kyle Cody

2016: Akil Baddoo/Jose Miranda/Joe Rortvedt

2017: Landon Leach

2018: Ryan Jeffers

2019: Matt Canterino

 

A's Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: Nolan Sanburn/Bruce Maxwell

2013: Chad Pinder/Dillon Overton

2014: Daniel Gossett

2015: Mikey White

2016: Logan Shore

2017: Greg Deichmann

2018: Jeremy Eierman/Jameson Hannah

2019: Tyler Baum

 

Dodgers Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2011: Alex Santana

2012: Paco Rodriguez

2013: Tom Windle

2014: Alex Verdugo

2015: Josh Sborz/Mitchell Hansen

2016: Mitchell White

2017: Morgan Cooper

2018: Michael Grove

2019: Jimmy Lewis

[hi8is]

9 minutes ago, KillahPriest said:

I'm not at all a huge fan of Hahn & Co. and the drafting they've done, but at the end of the day they're 2nd round picks in baseball.  How many teams actually make a killing drafting in the 2nd round?  Here are a few examples of some teams that everyone considers to have exceptional scouting, especially compared to the Sox:

 

Astros Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: Nolan Fotana

2013: Andrew Thurman

2014: A.J. Reed

2015: Tom Eshelman

2016: Ronnie Dawson 

2017: Joe Perez/Corbin Martin/J.J. Matijevic

2018: Jayson Shroeder

2019: Grae Kessinger

 

Rays Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2013: Riley Unroe

2014: Brent Honeywell Jr./Cameron Varga

2015: Chris Betts

2016: Jake Fraley /Ryan Boldt

2017: Michael Mercado

2018: Tanner Dodson/Tyler Frank

2019: John Doxakis

 

Twins Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: J.T. Chargois/Mason Meoltakis

2013: Ryan Eades

2014: Nick Burdi

2015: Kyle Cody

2016: Akil Baddoo/Jose Miranda/Joe Rortvedt

2017: Landon Leach

2018: Ryan Jeffers

2019: Matt Canterino

 

A's Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: Nolan Sanburn/Bruce Maxwell

2013: Chad Pinder/Dillon Overton

2014: Daniel Gossett

2015: Mikey White

2016: Logan Shore

2017: Greg Deichmann

2018: Jeremy Eierman/Jameson Hannah

2019: Tyler Baum

 

Dodgers Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2011: Alex Santana

2012: Paco Rodriguez

2013: Tom Windle

2014: Alex Verdugo

2015: Josh Sborz/Mitchell Hansen

2016: Mitchell White

2017: Morgan Cooper

2018: Michael Grove

2019: Jimmy Lewis

How revealing is that?

post of the year.

edit: who are you? Stay a while.

Edited November 12, 2019 by hi8is

[ron883]

On 10/30/2019 at 10:07 AM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Scherzer is one of 2 pitchers in 50 years who have had a career trajectory like his. Expecting that from anyone else is crazy - even  if I am high on Wheeler. Scherzer is a freak of nature- his game has matured like wine. That isn't the norm and should never be expected.

Greinke and Verlander have aged well.

 

How about Roger Clemens?

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

4 minutes ago, KillahPriest said:

I'm not at all a huge fan of Hahn & Co. and the drafting they've done, but at the end of the day they're 2nd round picks in baseball.  How many teams actually make a killing drafting in the 2nd round?  Here are a few examples of some teams that everyone considers to have exceptional scouting, especially compared to the Sox:

 

Astros Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: Nolan Fotana

2013: Andrew Thurman

2014: A.J. Reed

2015: Tom Eshelman

2016: Ronnie Dawson 

2017: Joe Perez/Corbin Martin/J.J. Matijevic

2018: Jayson Shroeder

2019: Grae Kessinger

 

Rays Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2013: Riley Unroe

2014: Brent Honeywell Jr./Cameron Varga

2015: Chris Betts

2016: Jake Fraley /Ryan Boldt

2017: Michael Mercado

2018: Tanner Dodson/Tyler Frank

2019: John Doxakis

 

Twins Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: J.T. Chargois/Mason Meoltakis

2013: Ryan Eades

2014: Nick Burdi

2015: Kyle Cody

2016: Akil Baddoo/Jose Miranda/Joe Rortvedt

2017: Landon Leach

2018: Ryan Jeffers

2019: Matt Canterino

 

A's Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: Nolan Sanburn/Bruce Maxwell

2013: Chad Pinder/Dillon Overton

2014: Daniel Gossett

2015: Mikey White

2016: Logan Shore

2017: Greg Deichmann

2018: Jeremy Eierman/Jameson Hannah

2019: Tyler Baum

 

Dodgers Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2011: Alex Santana

2012: Paco Rodriguez

2013: Tom Windle

2014: Alex Verdugo

2015: Josh Sborz/Mitchell Hansen

2016: Mitchell White

2017: Morgan Cooper

2018: Michael Grove

2019: Jimmy Lewis

Great post.

[mqr]

16 minutes ago, KillahPriest said:

I'm not at all a huge fan of Hahn & Co. and the drafting they've done, but at the end of the day they're 2nd round picks in baseball.  How many teams actually make a killing drafting in the 2nd round?  Here are a few examples of some teams that everyone considers to have exceptional scouting, especially compared to the Sox:

  

Astros Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: Nolan Fotana

2013: Andrew Thurman

2014: A.J. Reed

2015: Tom Eshelman

2016: Ronnie Dawson 

2017: Joe Perez/Corbin Martin/J.J. Matijevic

2018: Jayson Shroeder

2019: Grae Kessinger

 

Rays Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2013: Riley Unroe

2014: Brent Honeywell Jr./Cameron Varga

2015: Chris Betts

2016: Jake Fraley /Ryan Boldt

2017: Michael Mercado

2018: Tanner Dodson/Tyler Frank

2019: John Doxakis

 

Twins Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: J.T. Chargois/Mason Meoltakis

2013: Ryan Eades

2014: Nick Burdi

2015: Kyle Cody

2016: Akil Baddoo/Jose Miranda/Joe Rortvedt

2017: Landon Leach

2018: Ryan Jeffers

2019: Matt Canterino

 

A's Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2012: Nolan Sanburn/Bruce Maxwell

2013: Chad Pinder/Dillon Overton

2014: Daniel Gossett

2015: Mikey White

2016: Logan Shore

2017: Greg Deichmann

2018: Jeremy Eierman/Jameson Hannah

2019: Tyler Baum

 

Dodgers Last 10 2nd Rd Picks:

2011: Alex Santana

2012: Paco Rodriguez

2013: Tom Windle

2014: Alex Verdugo

2015: Josh Sborz/Mitchell Hansen

2016: Mitchell White

2017: Morgan Cooper

2018: Michael Grove

2019: Jimmy Lewis

Fact of the matter is it's hard to actually expect much at all when you get outside of the top 6 or 7 picks.

There's almost 0 reason to not give up picks for a good pro. 

Edited November 12, 2019 by mqr

[Harold's Leg Lift]

It's not just the pick they also lose the slot money.  Last year the 11th pick in the 2nd round had a slot value of $1,403,200.  That's money that could be used to overslot a 1st round pick that fell or a guy they like in the later rounds (DJ Gladney, Bryce Bush).  If they give up that 2nd rounder it has to be for a difference maker.  Zack Wheeler is a difference maker but Jake Odorizzi is not. 

[ChiSox59]

35 minutes ago, Jake said:

I'd be more excited to see the Sox make a serious offer to Ryu than Odorizzi or some of these other guys besides Wheeler. Yes there's injury risk, but you also know he's probably going to be great whenever he goes out there for you.

If Ryu goes for anything close to the 2/$32M projection from FG, the Sox should be all over it.  I'd honestly prefer that to 5/$100M for Wheeler.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

16 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Greinke and Verlander have aged well.

 

How about Roger Clemens?

Clemens aged horribly until he got a certain kind of illegal substance enhancement. 

His career was falling off a cliff after 30.

[steveno89]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

If Ryu goes for anything close to the 2/$32M projection from FG, the Sox should be all over it.  I'd honestly prefer that to 5/$100M for Wheeler.  

Absolutely we should. His health has been a bit of a question mark, but he's a really good pitcher when healthy. Not sure he's the kind of guy we can bank on pitching 180+ innings though. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It's not just the pick they also lose the slot money.  Last year the 11th pick in the 2nd round had a slot value of $1,403,200.  That's money that could be used to overslot a 1st round pick that fell or a guy they like in the later rounds (DJ Gladney, Bryce Bush).  If they give up that 2nd rounder it has to be for a difference maker.  Zack Wheeler is a difference maker but Jake Odorizzi is not. 

People really overvalue these draft picks. The odds a second round pick becomes anything close to an impact big leaguer is slim. 

[steveno89]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

People really overvalue these draft picks. The odds a second round pick becomes anything close to an impact big leaguer is slim. 

It's totally fair to question whether a player like Odorizzi is worth giving up draft pool money and second round pick for what it might take to sign him. He's good, but IDK how good. 

[mqr]

8 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It's not just the pick they also lose the slot money.  Last year the 11th pick in the 2nd round had a slot value of $1,403,200.  That's money that could be used to overslot a 1st round pick that fell or a guy they like in the later rounds (DJ Gladney, Bryce Bush).  If they give up that 2nd rounder it has to be for a difference maker.  Zack Wheeler is a difference maker but Jake Odorizzi is not. 

There's a pretty good chance Odorizzi is more valuable just next year than either of those guys combined over their entire career. 

[ron883]

27 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Clemens aged horribly until he got a certain kind of illegal substance enhancement. 

His career was falling off a cliff after 30.

We don't know that for sure.

[ChiSox59]

28 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Absolutely we should. His health has been a bit of a question mark, but he's a really good pitcher when healthy. Not sure he's the kind of guy we can bank on pitching 180+ innings though. 

Thing is, if the Sox sign another 1 year SP (as we should expect), we probably don't need Ryu for 180 IP+.  Obviously it would be nice, but at some point Kopech gets the kid gloves off and Rodon returns, things get a little crowded.  We have enough options that Ryu spending his annual DL trip or two isn't going to cripple to rotation. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, ron883 said:

We don't know that for sure.

Well, yes we do but ok.

[steveno89]

10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Thing is, if the Sox sign another 1 year SP (as we should expect), we probably don't need Ryu for 180 IP+.  Obviously it would be nice, but at some point Kopech gets the kid gloves off and Rodon returns, things get a little crowded.  We have enough options that Ryu spending his annual DL trip or two isn't going to cripple to rotation. 

Sadly, almost any additions will be viewed as upgrades to a pretty mediocre 2019 roster. 

I'm cautiously optimistic that our offseason does not result in: Keuchel, Calhoun, Encarnacion, a backend starter (take your pick) and pen arm. That would be the most White Sox offseason ever. 

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

That’s funny, I think he’s being underrated. He won’t be an ace but I’m very confident he will be reliable and will be a good mentor.

I think he’s gonna give up dingers. I don’t see him as an alternative to Wheeler or even Odorizzi, and especially not at a comparable contract. 

[ChiSox59]

14 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Sadly, almost any additions will be viewed as upgrades to a pretty mediocre 2019 roster. 

I'm cautiously optimistic that our offseason does not result in: Keuchel, Calhoun, Encarnacion, a backend starter (take your pick) and pen arm. That would be the most White Sox offseason ever. 

Yah it would.  I am hoping for much bigger things than that, but honestly if that is the worst case scenario, I'd take it.  At least all future flexibility is still open, and that team, while rather unexciting, would probably be good enough to be around contention in the ALC.   

I'd honestly prefer that scenerio to overpaying Puig/Castellanos and Odorizzi on longer term deals, as an example.  Those are the moves that can legitimately hamstring the future flexibility of the team with average players being paid like stars.  At least Calhoun, Encarncaion, and backend SP are all on 1 year deals, and a 2/$30M type deal for Kuechel isn't going to kill you at all.  

To be frank, outside of Grandal and Wheeler (and obviously the top 3 FA), and to a lesser extent Ryu and Bumgarner, I either have legitimate concerns or minimal interest in giving long term deals of $15M+ AAV to any of the FAs. 

Edited November 12, 2019 by ChiSox59

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Hypothetically speaking, if the White Sox put 5/$95 on the table and Houston put 4/$80 on the table, given that Texas has no income tax and that would cover 1/2 his season, and you can also look at the jumps players like Morton, Cole have made when they've worked with the Astros system, would anyone consider the Astros as having a better offer? I might.

1. I know, again, that people on this site love the Astros. That feeling is not exactly shared by the players and the union. 

2. Income tax difference over the life of the contract would be roughly; 2.35 million. That doesn't cancel out the 15 million in extra dollars by any means. 

So my answer is, wheeler would sign the bigger offer as would most every free agent.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Hypothetically speaking, if the White Sox put 5/$95 on the table and Houston put 4/$80 on the table, given that Texas has no income tax and that would cover 1/2 his season, and you can also look at the jumps players like Morton, Cole have made when they've worked with the Astros system, would anyone consider the Astros as having a better offer? I might.

Not really, but I think we'd just go to 5/$100M and give him the seven figure number he'd be looking for.

[bighurt574]

15 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I'd much rather prefer Wheeler to Odorizzi, but if the Sox got Odorizzi, I would not be terribly upset about it (assuming the contract details are not over-the-top). Odorizzi theoretically would be far more valuable to the Sox than their 2nd rounder in the 2020 draft could offer them. Look at their past history.

A list of the Sox last 10 2nd round picks:

• 2009 - David Holmberg / Trayce Thompson
• 2010 - Jake Petricka
• 2011 - Erik Johnson
• 2012 - Chris Beck
• 2013 - Tyler Danish
• 2014 - Spencer Adams
• 2015 - n/a
• 2016 - Alec Hansen
• 2017 - Gavin Sheets
• 2018 - Steele Walker
• 2019 - Matthew Thompson

Sheets, Walker, and Thompson are the only ones that *might* provide future value to the team, and you could almost argue that's only because they haven't been in the system long enough for disappointment.

Hey now, Erik Johnson helped us land Big Game James!  

[chw42]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

That’s funny, I think he’s being underrated. He won’t be an ace but I’m very confident he will be reliable and will be a good mentor.

His home/away splits are pretty telling. He pitches in the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. If you take him out of Oracle and put him in GRate for half his starts, he's gonna end up with a 4.5 ERA. 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, chw42 said:

His home/away splits are pretty telling. He pitches in the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. If you take him out of Oracle and put him in GRate for half his starts, he's gonna end up with a 4.5 ERA. 

People say this all the time and it's never that dramatic. His xFIP puts him at 4.3 (jake odorizzi's...4.3)

His fastball velo went up last year, allowing him to bring back his 4 seamer more. He increased his k rate and decreased his walk rate. His HR rate already consumed the juiced ball surge which may very well see a decline as the mlb tries to solve the lack of consistency. He'd also be playing a very power starved division, excluding the twins.

His cutter and fb combo is still evolving. I think he's only going to get better at using it.

But I'll trust him to find productivity over jake odorizzi putting it together for a year and everyone thinking he can just replicate that.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

But I'll trust him to find productivity over jake odorizzi putting it together for a year and everyone thinking he can just replicate that.

Yeah but would you trust him for 4 years as opposed to Odo for 1-2 years?