SonofaRoache Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, steveno89 said: Spotrac predicts 4/$93.77 million as Wheeler's "market value". A team might budge and give him more years in the $20-25 million AAV range, but I do not see the bidding getting to the $150-160 range. Patrick Corbin's deal of 6/$140 million I would assume to be his high water mark given some injury history in the past. In a perfect world yes. There will be 4 teams in desperate need of a guy like him, including the Sox. That is what drives the price up, not necessarily market value. Machado would have gotten a much lower deal had the Padres not got involved and raised the bidding. And no, teams will not all agree on a value for him and say, pick one of us at this rate. There will be bidding. The risk can be reduced by having mutual options in years 3 and or 4. Edited October 30, 2019 by SonofaRoache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 39 minutes ago, Good Guys said: The Nationals seem to be doing OK with their bullpen as a weakness. Like I said, agree to disagree. I would prefer starting pitching to be as strong as possible. You disagree. While they're a fair counterpoint - how many times did the Nats miss the playoffs entirely because of their bullpen? 3 years in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 31 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: In a perfect world yes. There will be 4 teams in desperate need of a guy like him, including the Sox. That is what drives the price up, not necessarily market value. Machado would have gotten a much lower deal had the Padres not got involved and raised the bidding. And no, teams will not all agree on a value for him and say, pick one of us at this rate. There will be bidding. The risk can be reduced by having mutual options in years 3 and or 4. No player in actual demand is going to accept a mutual option. A player option/opt out is one thing - that's all on the player. If it's a mutual option - then if they get hurt, years 3 and 4 aren't guaranteed. Those years, to a player, are a huge downside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: No player in actual demand is going to accept a mutual option. A player option/opt out is one thing - that's all on the player. If it's a mutual option - then if they get hurt, years 3 and 4 aren't guaranteed. Those years, to a player, are a huge downside. I think Wheeler is looking at a 4 year deal anyway, as his injury history is too great. He would have a chance to get those years and if he pitches well, he is likely to stay or get a nice contract again if there is a split. If he sucks or is hurt, he is screwed either way. I would prefer the Sox step up and offer him 5 or 6 years if we miss out on Cole, Stras, and Bum. Edited October 30, 2019 by SonofaRoache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: While they're a fair counterpoint - how many times did the Nats miss the playoffs entirely because of their bullpen? 3 years in a row? In 2018 that I can remember as they made the playoffs in 16 and 17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 The Yankees could be another counterpoint as they had a great offensive, great defense, and great bullpen but not enough starting pitching to make it past a team with better starting pitching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 I think that the Rays were a greater challenge to the Astros than the Yankees were because they had Morton who was the third best starting pitcher in the AL behind Cole and Verlander. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said: He did in the minors. 4 Games In his first year in the minors , But that was !0 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 I like the Wheeler idea. It gives us the opportunity to be first to the market and wrap him up, while others are after Cole and Strasburg. And yes they are better but if we couldn't beat the Padres and Phillies, doubtful that we outbid the Cole/Strasburg suitors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, GreenSox said: I like the Wheeler idea. It gives us the opportunity to be first to the market and wrap him up, while others are after Cole and Strasburg. And yes they are better but if we couldn't beat the Padres and Phillies, doubtful that we outbid the Cole/Strasburg suitors. If people are talking about it being possible that Wheeler getting $120 million he might be waiting until after Cole and Stras sign, because the bids probably won't shoot that high unless the other big pitchers are off the market. If suddenly the Yankees and Dodgers are both staring at having missed Cole and Stras because of a surprise bidder and Stras staying put in Washington, the bidding on Wheeler could go up considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegner Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: If people are talking about it being possible that Wheeler getting $120 million he might be waiting until after Cole and Stras sign, because the bids probably won't shoot that high unless the other big pitchers are off the market. If suddenly the Yankees and Dodgers are both staring at having missed Cole and Stras because of a surprise bidder and Stras staying put in Washington, the bidding on Wheeler could go up considerably. You seem to be predicting a long drawn out affair again....it looks like I picked the wrong post season to quit drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: If people are talking about it being possible that Wheeler getting $120 million he might be waiting until after Cole and Stras sign, because the bids probably won't shoot that high unless the other big pitchers are off the market. If suddenly the Yankees and Dodgers are both staring at having missed Cole and Stras because of a surprise bidder and Stras staying put in Washington, the bidding on Wheeler could go up considerably. I agree with this, and that's why it's going to be hard for the Sox to land a top pitcher this winter. If JDM and Strasburg opt in, it's going to make improving this winter fairly difficult IMO. Just not a lot of strong options out there. Edited October 30, 2019 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, Jack Parkman said: I agree with this, and that's why it's going to be hard for the Sox to land a top pitcher this winter. Who has more money than the WS to spend on FA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, wegner said: You seem to be predicting a long drawn out affair again....it looks like I picked the wrong post season to quit drinking I can see some ways that this could go more rapidly than last year - Cole and Stras could both conceivably come off the board at the winter meetings if there is real demand for him and teams realize they're more likely to lose them if they wait for a bargain. If those guys move then the market could clear itself over the next few weeks. But the back side of the list, the guys who aren't in a ton of demand - Puig, Martinez, etc. - I'd very much suspect that guys like that will be hunting for Jobs in January and February. MLB has done nothing to make this like the NBA where teams grab what's available quickly; teams know that prices on those guys can and will drop as the season approaches, and the player's only leverage is to stay out of the league completely, which is hard for many players to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, BackDoorBreach said: Who has more money than the WS to spend on FA? It's not about the money it's about other factors such as attractiveness of location. If the money is similar, I expect players to choose other locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: Who has more money than the WS to spend on FA? I think Texas has a ton of money available to spend, at least as much as Chicago, counting the opening of a new ballpark. The Dodgers and Yankees are in good shape, the Nationals have enough room to retain their 2 big guys if they want, the Giants could have a ton of money to spend, the Braves are in good shape for a big move or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegner Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I can see some ways that this could go more rapidly than last year - Cole and Stras could both conceivably come off the board at the winter meetings if there is real demand for him and teams realize they're more likely to lose them if they wait for a bargain. If those guys move then the market could clear itself over the next few weeks. But the back side of the list, the guys who aren't in a ton of demand - Puig, Martinez, etc. - I'd very much suspect that guys like that will be hunting for Jobs in January and February. MLB has done nothing to make this like the NBA where teams grab what's available quickly; teams know that prices on those guys can and will drop as the season approaches, and the player's only leverage is to stay out of the league completely, which is hard for many players to do. Ok, another long off season then. In that case, I'm glad I don't get charged for each time I check in here at Soxtalk...I'd go broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, SonofaRoache said: I think Wheeler is looking at a 4 year deal anyway, as his injury history is too great. He would have a chance to get those years and if he pitches well, he is likely to stay or get a nice contract again if there is a split. If he sucks or is hurt, he is screwed either way. I would prefer the Sox step up and offer him 5 or 6 years if we miss out on Cole, Stras, and Bum. The problem is Cole and Stras will wait forever to make a decision. If we are willing to accept Bum or Wheeler... need to strike early while others are treating him like a fall back option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 37 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I think Texas has a ton of money available to spend, at least as much as Chicago, counting the opening of a new ballpark. The Dodgers and Yankees are in good shape, the Nationals have enough room to retain their 2 big guys if they want, the Giants could have a ton of money to spend, the Braves are in good shape for a big move or two. Unless the Yankees make some moves or go above the luxury tax (which I have heard they won't do) they will be at around $200 million in salary and with little room to work with to stay underneath the $208 million luxury tax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 19 minutes ago, wegner said: Ok, another long off season then. In that case, I'm glad I don't get charged for each time I check in here at Soxtalk...I'd go broke. Baseball needs to fix this. The Winter Meetings were exciting and fans devoured every little crumb. Remember Hemond setting up his "open for business" sign in I believe Hollywood, Florida? Deals were being announced several deals per day it seemed. Now...big nothing. We spend the whole offseason (4 months) waiting on Boras to tell us what he has decided for his clients. I understand that the amount of money and complexity of the deals are very different today and that changes things from that era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 6 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: If I were Odorizzi and the Twins offered me a QO I'd take it and bet on myself. If he doesn't take the QO he's out of a job until June. Let’s not forget they risk losing Gibson, Pineda, Martin Perez and Odorizzi in one offseason. They might feel they have no choice but to put a QO on at least one or even two of those guys...likely Odorizzi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 5 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said: It's not like they won't have pitching though. Assuming they sign 2 starters you're looking at for example purposes Gio Wheeler Cease Lopez Nova Kopech (AAA start/IP limit) Rodon (After ASB) That's 7 ML starting pitchers after the ASB and 6 before. I agree that the secondary SP we pick up should be somebody cheap as Kopech and to a lesser extent Rodon will be up at some point in the season. It just doesn't make a ton of sense to throw a lot of money at that. Not to mention Dunning and the possibility of a fast-riser like Stiever (or Hansen early in his career.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 11 hours ago, SonofaRoache said: Yeah, there are about 6 teams that are going after Wheeler because he can be quickly signed with a big offer. The bidding is gonna get high for his services. We need to go after Stras and Wheeler hard. I think Stras would take a 5 year deal at 160 million. This deal wouldn't hamstring the Sox if he falters a few yeats into the deal. At the same time I'd be working on a deal with Wheeler for 6 years and 175 million. Absolutely no chances Wheeler is getting 6/$175M. Patrick Corbin got 6/$140M in a highly back-loaded deal and is left-handed and flashed more dominance. I think Wheeler ultimately gets around 5/$100M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 8 hours ago, caulfield12 said: Wheeler and Cole are both 29. What other pitcher on the FA market has the stuff to be a #2 in our rotation? Ryu, if he could stay healthy and actually wanted to leave LA, maybe. Because of all the question marks...Wheeler shouldn’t be getting more than Corbin. If I had to guess, he should top out in the $100-120 million range. Cole will get double that...so you’re basically putting almost all your eggs in one basket. Wheeler allows you to also address RF, DH and bench, bullpen. Very easy to imagine Wheeler, Grandal, Moustakas and a RH reliever making this team a real threat to do some damage in 2020. Or Wheeler, JDM and a reliever, if you want to keep it as realistic as possible. That would still theoretically allow them to look at cheaper options for RF that are just looking for everyday opportunities to rebuild their value, like Dickerson, Gennett, etc. Great post Caulfield and spot on with your assessment of Wheeler’s market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 7 hours ago, SonofaRoache said: 20 million per is the starting point now for good but not great pitchers. Add in desperation and bidding wars and the price gets ridiculous. But why is he getting more than Corbin did a year ago when there were literally no other high end pitching options available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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