BackDoorBreach Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Wheeler getting 4-5/20 AAV is probably pretty close to what he gets. I don't think there is a chance he gets 150 million though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 (edited) Balta’s plan bears repeating, because we really can’t be 100% sure that Colome can repeat, leading to Smith. The problem is they’re unlikely to cut him adrift and you’re going to be sinking $30ish million into just three spots in the pen (due to the foolish Herrera deal), which is untenable for a mid-market team. Not sure where else they can cut payroll-wise, other than Yolmer, Rodon (unlikely) or Abreu (might get some yearly savings over 2-3 year commitment.) If it really came down to that last $5-10 million between leaving the bullpen being untouched and adding, I’d seriously consider whether the opportunity cost of getting anything back on Rodon or Colome In the future is actually worth it. Since we tend to be stubborn on player evaluations, though...Hahn is unlikely to cut bait (well, MAYBE on Carson Fulmer.) Or they could get rid of Colome, add a Smith as closer, Lopez/Dunning to the pen and push Bummer and Fry up in the pecking order. Edited October 30, 2019 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, poppysox said: The problem is Cole and Stras will wait forever to make a decision. If we are willing to accept Bum or Wheeler... need to strike early while others are treating him like a fall back option. We will know quickly if we want Cole or Stras. We will not be able to lowball and should offer one of them a good contract early on. We should also go over contract details with Wheeler and Bum. Whoever agrees first should be signed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: But why is he getting more than Corbin did a year ago when there were literally no other high end pitching options available? Teams were not in the market to pay for starting pitching. Teams like the Sox, Twins, Brewers, Cubs, etc will probably not wait for Cole and Stras to sign. They will be hot after Wheeler and Bum, and no one wants to end up empty handed. No one also wants to play the Ryu and Jake O game too quickly. Edited October 31, 2019 by SonofaRoache 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcq Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Monster packages for veteran pitchers is a non-starter for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, pcq said: Monster packages for veteran pitchers is a non-starter for me. Arguably, the two best theoretically on the market would be THOR and Matthew Boyd. Of course, the Mets then would have to figure out if they could compete with deGrom/Stroman or throw in the towel with how strong the Nationals and Braves look for the next 2-3 seasons (guess we'll have to wait and see on Rendon/Strasburg). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 9 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said: 3. His bat looks like it's in an age-related decline. I think you’re taking a major leap with this assumption. His 2019 season was still amongst the best in baseball from a quality of contact perspective and in line with 2015 & 2016 seasons. Guys do have career years and more likely than not that’s simply what happened in 2017 & 2018. I’d wager large sums of money he puts up a wRC+ of 130+ over each of the next three seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: It's not about the money it's about other factors such as attractiveness of location. If the money is similar, I expect players to choose other locales. So much for you being optimistic! Looks like you lasted a robust 8 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 hours ago, Balta1701 said: I think Texas has a ton of money available to spend, at least as much as Chicago, counting the opening of a new ballpark. The Dodgers and Yankees are in good shape, the Nationals have enough room to retain their 2 big guys if they want, the Giants could have a ton of money to spend, the Braves are in good shape for a big move or two. Being able to fit a massive contract into your budget for 2020 is much different than fitting it in for the next five to seven years. How do those teams all look a few years from now? My guess is the Yankees & Dodgers be quickly be approaching the luxury tax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 3 hours ago, SonofaRoache said: Teams were not in the market to pay for starting pitching. Teams like the Sox, Twins, Brewers, Cubs, etc will probably not wait for Cole and Stras to sign. They will be hot after Wheeler and Bum, and no one wants to end up empty handed. No one also wants to play the Ryu and Jake O game too quickly. I have never seen a free agent market in my lifetime where “teams were not in the market to pay for starting pitching”. Teams are always in need of starting pitching and the TOR free agents are always in high demand. The difference is teams are much smarter nowadays and more often than not will not go over their internal valuation for a guy. I’m probably the biggest fan of Wheeler on this board, but no way anyone goes over five years with him and that caps his value in the $100M to $125M range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I have never seen a free agent market in my lifetime where “teams were not in the market to pay for starting pitching”. Teams are always in need of starting pitching and the TOR free agents are always in high demand. The difference is teams are much smarter nowadays and more often than not will not go over their internal valuation for a guy. I’m probably the biggest fan of Wheeler on this board, but no way anyone goes over five years with him and that caps his value in the $100M to $125M range. Makes the Corbin acquisition look more defensible... not to mention the Eaton deal and letting Harper go. Finally, just one year ago, everyone in baseball was ready to write off Dave Martinez. They couldn't have been more wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 35 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Being able to fit a massive contract into your budget for 2020 is much different than fitting it in for the next five to seven years. How do those teams all look a few years from now? My guess is the Yankees & Dodgers be quickly be approaching the luxury tax. Well yes, but the Yankees and Dodgers can afford the luxury tax. The Yankees have only been a non-tax-paying team in 2 seasons; 2018 and 2019, and at some point they're going to realize that they're choosing avoiding the tax in favor of beating the Astros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: Well yes, but the Yankees and Dodgers can afford the luxury tax. The Yankees have only been a non-tax-paying team in 2 seasons; 2018 and 2019, and at some point they're going to realize that they're choosing avoiding the tax in favor of beating the Astros. The Dodgers can afford it at this point. The Yankees no. And Hank Steinbrenner has said that he wouldn't go over the luxury tax. Edited October 31, 2019 by Good Guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Cole seems destined to go to the Dodgers or the Angels. He's from California. They have the money and aren't afraid of big contracts. If Strasburg becomes available and Washington is unable to retain him due to signing Rendon things get interesting. I think the White Sox could be a player on a short list of teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 I think Cole goes west where he is from to either the Dodgers or the Angels. If Strasburg opts out and Rendon resigns with the Nationals I feel that the White Sox could be on a short list for his services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 hours ago, Balta1701 said: Well yes, but the Yankees and Dodgers can afford the luxury tax. The Yankees have only been a non-tax-paying team in 2 seasons; 2018 and 2019, and at some point they're going to realize that they're choosing avoiding the tax in favor of beating the Astros. Sure, teams will pay the luxury tax, but they won’t do it for too many years in a row and to my knowledge no team has ever gone above the second penalty threshold. And as much as the Yankees can afford to pay the tax, it makes owners effectively pay more for free agents and historically they don’t like doing that. The luxury tax (at least the second threshold) has basically served as a defacto salary cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, Good Guys said: Cole seems destined to go to the Dodgers or the Angels. He's from California. They have the money and aren't afraid of big contracts. If Strasburg becomes available and Washington is unable to retain him due to signing Rendon things get interesting. I think the White Sox could be a player on a short list of teams. Just out of curiosity, but what big contracts has Andrew Friedman signed off on as GM of the Dodgers? Edited October 31, 2019 by Chicago White Sox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Just out of curiosity, but what big contracts has Andrew Friedman signed off on as GM of the Dodgers? Kershaw, Jensen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 This push of the second tier guys into the first tier contract territory was what I worried about. I’d go harder after tier 1. Lots of big contract pitchers in the World Series, many of them moved after their big contract. Good pitchers are a better investment then Steve stone indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 16 minutes ago, bmags said: Kershaw, Jensen So nothing over $100M then? That’s confirms my point, Friedman has run out huge payrolls, but has never signed anyone to a massive contract before. I think the Angels are a far bigger threat to land Cole than the Dodgers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 17 minutes ago, bmags said: This push of the second tier guys into the first tier contract territory was what I worried about. What’s prompting this statement? If we should learn anything from last year’s class, only the tier one guys get tier one contracts in today’s environment. There were only three contracts above $100M last season and those were the only three above four years in length. Yes, it was a shitty class in many ways, but despite that supply constraint teams did NOT overpay for B tier free agents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: What’s prompting this statement? If we should learn anything from last year’s class, only the tier one guys get tier one contracts in today’s environment. There were only three contracts above $100M last season and those were the only three above four years in length. Yes, it was a shitty class in many ways, but despite that supply constraint teams did NOT overpay for B tier free agents. There was also a different dynamic last year with which teams in particular were buying. This year a lot of the big spenders are going to be in the market. That didn't happen last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: What’s prompting this statement? If we should learn anything from last year’s class, only the tier one guys get tier one contracts in today’s environment. There were only three contracts above $100M last season and those were the only three above four years in length. Yes, it was a shitty class in many ways, but despite that supply constraint teams did NOT overpay for B tier free agents. Yet Corbin was bid up to $140 million. Corbin has he been in this class would be considered close to wheeler, and there are many more bidders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, bmags said: Yet Corbin was bid up to $140 million. Corbin has he been in this class would be considered close to wheeler, and there are many more bidders. Agree to disagree. Corbin was the 5th ranked pitcher in 2018 and flashed ace potential with his increased slider usage. He was without question an A tier free agent and was compensated almost exactly as expected (MLBTR predicted a 6/$129M contract). Wheeler is definitely a tier below where Corbin was last offseason IMO and I say that as a huge Wheeler fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 27 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: There was also a different dynamic last year with which teams in particular were buying. This year a lot of the big spenders are going to be in the market. That didn't happen last year. Who are all these teams who’ve come out and said they’re going to be big spenders? I’ve seen multiple teams say they won’t be spending big, but nothing of the former if you’re referring to teams like the Yankees & Dodgers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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