Predict the Market: FA Contracts

[ChiSoxJon]

10 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

For shits and giggles, I am going to take this a step further a guess teams and deals

Cole - 8 years, 255 million (Yankees)

Rendon - 8 years, 245 million (Nats)

Stras - 6 years, 200 million (Nats)

Bumgarner - 5 years, $145 million (Twins)

Chapman - 5 years 85 million (Dodgers)

JD Martinez - 4 years, 80 million (Rangers)

Ryu - 4 years, 88 million (Angels)

Donaldson - 4 years, 82 million (Twins)

Wheeler - 5 years, 98 million (White Sox)

Ozuna - 4 years, 78 million (Cardinals)

Grandal - 4 years, 72 million (White Sox)

Odorizzi - Accepts QO (Twins)

Hamels - 4 years, 68 (Angels)

Didi - 4 years, 55 million (Giants)

Keuchel - 4 years, 62 million (Reds)

Castellanos - 4 years, 70 million (Cubs) 

Miley - 2 years, 25 million (Blue Jays)

Encarnacion - 1 year, 12 million (Rays)

Moustakas - 2 years, 27 million (Rangers) 

Puig - 3 years, 43 million (DBacks)

Will Smith - 4 years, 41 million (Rockies)

Will Harris - 3 years, 32 million (Astros)

Betances - 2 years, 24 million (White Sox)

Roark - 1 year, 13 million (Orioles)

Pineda 2 year, 18 million (Twins)

JDM, Puig, EE, Miley would all make sense on those terms

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, ChiSoxJon said:

JDM, Puig, EE, Miley would all make sense on those terms

EE has literally no market.  His best on paper fit may be the Mariners, and they just traded him away.  Maybe he goes back there, but I doubt it.

Someone will sign him, but I think he'll be pretty cheap.  Which is why I picked the Rays.  Seems like a Rays move if it gets cheap enough.  

[ChiSoxJon]

59 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

EE has literally no market.  His best on paper fit may be the Mariners, and they just traded him away.  Maybe he goes back there, but I doubt it.

Someone will sign him, but I think he'll be pretty cheap.  Which is why I picked the Rays.  Seems like a Rays move if it gets cheap enough.  

Wouldn't mind EE, but only as a backup to JDM and Donaldson

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

On 10/30/2019 at 10:32 AM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This is something that entertains me every off season and I like seeing how accurately salaries can be predicted. 

Fans the past few years have over valued the market. 

Let's see how accurate everyone can be.

Here is a list of the top 2020 free agents.

Here are the top 25:

Cole - 7 years, 250 million

Rendon - 8 years, 255 million

Stras - 6 years, 220 million

Bumgarner - 6 years, 175 million

Chapman - 4 years 60 million

JD Martinez - 4 years, 90 million

Ryu - 4 years, 85 million

Donaldson - 3 years, 65 million

Wheeler - 5 years, 125 million

Ozuna - 4 years, 85 million

Grandal - 4 years, 70 million

Odorizzi - 4 years, 60 million

Hamels - 4 years, 65 million

Didi - 5 years, 68 million

Keuchel - 3 years, 50 million

Castellanos - 5 years, 80 million 

Miley - 2 years, 25 million

Encarnacion - 1 year, 19 million

Moustakas - 2 years, 38 million

Puig - 3 years, 45 million

Will Smith - 4 years, 48 million

Will Harris - 3 years, 30 million

Betances - 2 years, 16 million

Roark - 1 year, 13 million

Pineda 1 year, 11 million

Seems like I'm high on the top 4 starters but about the same on the position players as fangraphs piece today. Kiley and I had near identical contracts for the first few bats like Donaldson and Grandal. Maybe I'm overvaluing the arms but from what I see the pitchers have been more likely - by 41% of FA signings - to be overpaid based on market forecasts than position players; whom are much more projectable.

I'd actually be really interested in Bumgarner at the forecasted rate, even though I'm not that interested in general. His 4.51 FIP away from san fran is really scary.

 

Kiley has wheeler at 4 years 68 million. I'll take the over for whatever kiley would like. If kileys forecasts are within reason the sox should be salivating at the prices and should be all In.

Edited November 4, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

To use FG forecasts, Sox could sign:

 

Wheeler - 4 years, 80 million (they project 68 million) 

JD - 3 years 77 million 

Grandal - 4 years 70 million

Smith - 3 years 36 million

Betances - 1 year 12 million

Those 5 players combined would cost just over what they offered manny in guaranteed dollars - 275 million for an average AAV of 18.333 million. 

If the Sox made the above acquisitions and no more - maybe a Rich Hill for 8 million too? - they would be adding 91 million putting them around 140-150 with abreu.

[ChiSox59]

24 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Seems like I'm high on the top 4 starters but about the same on the position players as fangraphs piece today. Kiley and I had near identical contracts for the first few bats like Donaldson and Grandal. Maybe I'm overvaluing the arms but from what I see the pitchers have been more likely - by 41% of FA signings - to be overpaid based on market forecasts than position players; whom are much more projectable.

I'd actually be really interested in Bumgarner at the forecasted rate, even though I'm not that interested in general. His 4.51 FIP away from san fran is really scary.

 

Kiley has wheeler at 4 years 68 million. I'll take the over for whatever kiley would like. If kileys forecasts are within reason the sox should be salivating at the prices and should be all In.

Here is the article for those wondering:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

Some pretty good values in there.  Quite a bit lower than being discussed here  Here are the top 15, and then a few that may be of interest.  

Cole - 7/$242

Rendon - 7/$211

Strasburg - 5/$150

Donaldson 3/$71

JD Martinez - 3/$77

Grandal - 4/$70

Ozuna - 4 / $70

Bumgarner - 4/$64

Wheeler - 4/$68

Gregorius - 3/$48

Castellanos - 4/$56

Keuchel - 3/$45

Ryu - 2/$32

Moustakas - 2/$32

Gibson 3/$45

Puig 3/$39

Hamels 2/$28

Gardner 1/$13

Encarnacion 1/$11

Miley 1/$9

Chris Martin 2/$12

Jose Abreu - 1/$11

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Here is the article for those wondering:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

Some pretty good values in there.  Quite a bit lower than being discussed here  Here are the top 15, and then a few that may be of interest.  

Cole - 7/$242

Rendon - 7/$211

Strasburg - 5/$150

Donaldson 3/$71

JD Martinez - 3/$77

Grandal - 4/$70

Ozuna - 4 / $70

Bumgarner - 4/$64

Wheeler - 4/$68

Gregorius - 3/$48

Castellanos - 4/$56

Keuchel - 3/$45

Ryu - 2/$32

Moustakas - 2/$32

Gibson 3/$45

Puig 3/$39

Hamels 2/$28

Gardner 1/$13

Encarnacion 1/$11

Miley 1/$9

Chris Martin 2/$12

Jose Abreu - 1/$11

Outside of Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu and Strasburg my overall forecasts, and the general consensus for most on this board, are really close to what was projected there.

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Outside of Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu and Strasburg my overall forecasts, and the general consensus for most on this board, are really close to what was projected there.

And Hamels, and Abreu, and Miley, and Kuechel, and Gregorious.  

But yah, I guess the other half were relatively close. 

[thxfrthmmrs]

I don’t see Strasburg getting higher AAV than Cole, especially with him being an NL pitcher.

[Buehrle>Wood]

The Athletic projects 3 years/60 million for Abreu

[steveno89]

33 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

To use FG forecasts, Sox could sign:

 

Wheeler - 4 years, 80 million (they project 68 million) 

JD - 3 years 77 million 

Grandal - 4 years 70 million

Smith - 3 years 36 million

Betances - 1 year 12 million

Those 5 players combined would cost just over what they offered manny in guaranteed dollars - 275 million for an average AAV of 18.333 million. 

If the Sox made the above acquisitions and no more - maybe a Rich Hill for 8 million too? - they would be adding 91 million putting them around 140-150 with abreu.

That would be an incredible offseason. Not getting my hopes up, but damn we would be a much better club in 2020 onward. 

[steveno89]

Just now, Buehrle>Wood said:

The Athletic projects 3 years/60 million for Abreu

No way a team gives Abreu three guaranteed years at this stage for that kind of money

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

22 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

And Hamels, and Abreu, and Miley, and Kuechel, and Gregorious.  

But yah, I guess the other half were relatively close. 

How? I literally adjusted my Hamels number in this thread to 2 years 30 million and they project 2 years 28 million.

Keuchel I had a 3 years 50 million and they projected 3 years 45 - you're certainly holding me to a high standard if that's not close.

Abreu I didn't project.

Gregorius, I gave 2 more years because of his age but the values were similar - 3 years 48 is similar to 5 years 68. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

14 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

No way a team gives Abreu three guaranteed years at this stage for that kind of money

Lol the Athletic should find someone different to do these projections if this is real.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

16 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I don’t see Strasburg getting higher AAV than Cole, especially with him being an NL pitcher.

Yeah, I was too high for Stras. I like their number better than mine for sure.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

36 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

The Athletic projects 3 years/60 million for Abreu

Let him walk 

[ChiSox59]

29 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

How? I literally adjusted my Hamels number in this thread to 2 years 30 million and they project 2 years 28 million.

Keuchel I had a 3 years 50 million and they projected 3 years 45 - you're certainly holding me to a high standard if that's not close.

Abreu I didn't project.

Gregorius, I gave 2 more years because of his age but the values were similar - 3 years 48 is similar to 5 years 68. 

I wasn't talking about you specifically.  

[ChiSox59]

9 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Let him walk 

That was done by Bowden.  75% of the posters here are more in the loop than Jim fuckin' Bowden.

1/$11M seems light, but 3/$60M is never going to happen.  It'll be somewhere in the middle, but hoping McDaniel is closer! 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I wasn't talking about you specifically.  

Gotcha, my apologies.

[ChiSoxJon]

1 hour ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

The Athletic projects 3 years/60 million for Abreu

A bit high hahaha, 3/$45 sounds about right

[Dam8610]

On 11/4/2019 at 9:38 AM, ChiSox59 said:

Here is the article for those wondering:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

Some pretty good values in there.  Quite a bit lower than being discussed here  Here are the top 15, and then a few that may be of interest.  

Cole - 7/$242

Rendon - 7/$211

Strasburg - 5/$150

Donaldson 3/$71

JD Martinez - 3/$77

Grandal - 4/$70

Ozuna - 4 / $70

Bumgarner - 4/$64

Wheeler - 4/$68

Gregorius - 3/$48

Castellanos - 4/$56

Keuchel - 3/$45

Ryu - 2/$32

Moustakas - 2/$32

Gibson 3/$45

Puig 3/$39

Hamels 2/$28

Gardner 1/$13

Encarnacion 1/$11

Miley 1/$9

Chris Martin 2/$12

Jose Abreu - 1/$11

At those prices I'd be tempted to go Rendon, Grandal, Abreu, Bumgarner, Keuchel. A cheaper, more White Sox version would be to substitute Puig for Rendon.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

At those prices I'd be tempted to go Rendon, Grandal, Abreu, Bumgarner, Keuchel. A cheaper, more White Sox version would be to substitute Puig for Rendon.

I really don’t think the Sox are going to be interested in Puig. I also don’t think they’re going to sign two SP that require multi year deals. 

[ChiSoxJon]

3 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

At those prices I'd be tempted to go Rendon, Grandal, Abreu, Bumgarner, Keuchel. A cheaper, more White Sox version would be to substitute Puig for Rendon.

Rendon is a phenomenal player, but tough to see him here for both money and attraction, frankly I'm fine with Moncada at 3B long term and anxious to see Madrigal up, no they're not at Rendon level yet, but let's see what we have

Regardless, this is the type of offseason Sox ans should not expect and frankly don't want

Abreu will be back and Grandal would be a great add, but both Bumgarner's and Keuchel's best days are behind them..and last off season proved CWS won't pay what it takes for a big name bat

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I really don’t think the Sox are going to be interested in Puig. I also don’t think they’re going to sign two SP that require multi year deals. 

I'd be interested in Puig, I saw one deal saying we'd get him for 3/30 and I think that's more than fine

Not sure what the relationship is between him and 79 is nowadays however, had issues in Cuba regarding his work ethic and attitude I believe

[Two-Gun Pete]

11 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I really don’t think the Sox are going to be interested in Puig. I also don’t think they’re going to sign two SP that require multi year deals. 

I'm curious why you believe this.

My view is that, for better or worse, Puig is at least a RFer, not a LFer. And, he wouldn't cost any (scant) trade resources. If others are more correct as to his price than Spotrac and I believe his market to be, why in God's name wouldn't the Reinsdorfs be in on that?

 

Also, one other thing I note about this thread:

Almost ALL of us believe Wheeler to be the better, younger, more ascendant, and with fewer IP SP than Bumgarner.  Almost ALL of us believe that there will be a large degree of interest in Wheeler. Yet, almost all of the predictions posted here project Bumgarner to get a larger contract/more years than Wheeler.

 

Is this wishful thinking on the part of posters here? I see the opposite, in all honesty. I believe Wheeler will get the Cobin contract+, while Bumgarner will get less $/fewer years.

Edited November 8, 2019 by Two-Gun Pete

[SCCWS]

11 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

At those prices I'd be tempted to go Rendon, Grandal, Abreu, Bumgarner, Keuchel. A cheaper, more White Sox version would be to substitute Puig for Rendon.

At a quick glance, you think the White Sox will roughly double their 2019 payroll and go $160 + Mil?  It would be great but I think you are way too high.