Sox issue qualifying offer to Abreu

[SonofaRoache]

11 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

while that's possible, this feels like some friction between the sides.   If everything was peachy they'd have come to that conclusion before officially offering the QO.  I'd hazard a guess Jose's camp was (or vice versa) is trying to call a bluff.

Or maybe the Sox are being fair with their franchise icon and letting him test his own market to aid negotiations. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by SonofaRoache

[Dick Allen]

What the QO does is guarantees Abreu will be back. Nothing more, nothing less.  Maybe they have discussed 2 year deals, but this also gives him a one year option.

[steveno89]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

What the QO does is guarantees Abreu will be back. Nothing more, nothing less.  Maybe they have discussed 2 year deals, but this also gives him a one year option.

The QO was smart by the Sox to essentially prevent Abreu from receiving offers from other clubs. He's not the type of player teams would be willing to sign for multiple years and give up draft compensation for. 

I think he would be wise to accept the QO, because I could see the Sox pulling it and only offering 1/12 later in the offseason. He'll be back, but I like that they do not seem to want to pay retail for an aging player. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

What the QO does is guarantees Abreu will be back. Nothing more, nothing less.  Maybe they have discussed 2 year deals, but this also gives him a one year option.

It guarantees we are realistic about his value too i believe, which is outstanding news. Meaning we probably offered him a fair value (2 years 25 mil) or something like that and he thought he could get more (he can't) so we are letting him test the market.  Great for us.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Just now, steveno89 said:

The QO was smart by the Sox to essentially prevent Abreu from receiving offers from other clubs. He's not the type of player teams would be willing to sign for multiple years and give up draft compensation for. 

I think he would be wise to accept the QO, because I could see the Sox pulling it and only offering 1/12 later in the offseason. He'll be back, but I like that they do not seem to want to pay retail for an aging player. 

Yeah, he should accept it.  And i am fine paying him 18 million on a year to year basis.  Doesn't block anyone AND protects us from a fall off should one happen.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

The QO was smart by the Sox to essentially prevent Abreu from receiving offers from other clubs. He's not the type of player teams would be willing to sign for multiple years and give up draft compensation for. 

I think he would be wise to accept the QO, because I could see the Sox pulling it and only offering 1/12 later in the offseason. He'll be back, but I like that they do not seem to want to pay retail for an aging player. 

Except they’re going to be paying 50-65% more than he’s worth by fWAR.

Which cuts another $6 million out of the budget for 2020, somewhere...

[daggins]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Except they’re going to be paying 50-65% more than he’s worth by fWAR.

Which cuts another $6 million out of the budget for 2020, somewhere...

Bingo. They need to add in a number of places this offseason, and they've already now blown probably 1/4 of their 2020 addition budget on the position that is easiest to fill on the cheap. Just an incredibly stupid play.

[steveno89]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Except they’re going to be paying 50-65% more than he’s worth by fWAR.

Which cuts another $6 million out of the budget for 2020, somewhere...

I'm willing to overspend on his 2020 season if it means it's only a one year deal. If he declines we can cut bait and have $18 million essentially freed up to spend next offseason. 

At this stage of his career we should be going year to year with him. 

[steveno89]

2 minutes ago, daggins said:

Bingo. They need to add in a number of places this offseason, and they've already now blown probably 1/4 of their 2020 addition budget on the position that is easiest to fill on the cheap. Just an incredibly stupid play.

Think of the QO purely as risk management for the Sox. It craters his potential FA market, and bides time for the Sox to negotiate. 

[ChiSox59]

11 minutes ago, daggins said:

Bingo. They need to add in a number of places this offseason, and they've already now blown probably 1/4 of their 2020 addition budget on the position that is easiest to fill on the cheap. Just an incredibly stupid play.

This post reflects a lack of understanding of the overall situation.  It is a great play for the Sox, and it proves they aren't willing to make an emotional decision and overpay Abreu on a multi-year deal.  Clearly there is a divide between what the Sox are offering and what Jose wants, or this would not have happened.  

[Eminor3rd]

QO working as intended. It’s there to steal leverage from players in negotiations, under the guise of “competitive balance.” This is JR using one of his tailor made weapons. 

Ill be surprised if Jose doesn’t sign a two or three year deal at $12-15m AAV. And, if he doesn’t, it’ll be a big signal that the White Sox probably are actually going to try to trade for JD Martinez lol. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

32 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Except they’re going to be paying 50-65% more than he’s worth by fWAR.

Which cuts another $6 million out of the budget for 2020, somewhere...

1. There are many ways to value a player; WAR is a nice tool, but certainly not the only defining analysis done on players.

2. 1st baseman and DH's have been over penalized imo; they are penalized too much for their position/defense. Offense still reigns in baseball, despite the fact that base running and defense do matter. In general, it's pretty obvious to me that WAR undervalues Abreu's contributions to a certain degree. 

3. Not a single person in the game thinks the Sox extending the QO to Abreu was an overpay or bad move. 

4. Fangraphs doesn't set the value rates for FA's. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

33 minutes ago, daggins said:

Bingo. They need to add in a number of places this offseason, and they've already now blown probably 1/4 of their 2020 addition budget on the position that is easiest to fill on the cheap. Just an incredibly stupid play.

When your property is covered in holes, you typically don't want to dig another one while attempting to fill in the others. 

[daggins]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

When your property is covered in holes, you typically don't want to dig another one while attempting to fill in the others. 

To keep this analogy going, if you can fill one hole for $5 and the others will cost $20, why would you pay 20 dollars to fix the 5 dollar hole?

Anyways if Jose signs a multiyear deal as described by Eminor then yeah, whatever. I'm not enamored with Jose as a player but he'll do.

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, daggins said:

To keep this analogy going, if you can fill one hole for $5 and the others will cost $20, why would you pay 20 dollars to fix the 5 dollar hole?

Anyways if Jose signs a multiyear deal as described by Eminor then yeah, whatever. I'm not enamored with Jose as a player but he'll do.

I think they're betting that Abreu declines the QO. It would be incredibly stupid for him to do so, but whatever either way. 

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I think they're betting that Abreu declines the QO. It would be incredibly stupid for him to do so, but whatever either way. 

I don't think that is what happened here.  I doubt the Sox think he'll decline.  I think the Sox have probably been offering Jose a 2 year deal between $25-30M.  He wants more $ and years.  It got down to QO day, and they said OK Jose, we'd love to keep you but it has to be at a price that makes sense, so if you're unwilling to take this deal right now, we'll give you the QO offer then, feel free to test the market.  If it doesn't work out, we'll be here for you.  The Sox know its very unlikely a team is going to give him a multi-year deal and give up a pick, at least not until like March.  They now have all the leverage in the world.  I assume Jose's agent will tell him he has to take the QO, or he'll sign the 2 year/$25-30M deal the Sox have been offering in the next 10 days.  

I think from the Sox fan perspective, best case scenario is that he does in fact reject the QO.  Because the likelihood of the Sox getting him on a 1 year $10-12M deal just went up exponentially in that scenario, though obviously we'd have to play the long game there and go through a large portion of the offseason without a DH or 1B. 

[steveno89]

48 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't think that is what happened here.  I doubt the Sox think he'll decline.  I think the Sox have probably been offering Jose a 2 year deal between $25-30M.  He wants more $ and years.  It got down to QO day, and they said OK Jose, we'd love to keep you but it has to be at a price that makes sense, so if you're unwilling to take this deal right now, we'll give you the QO offer then, feel free to test the market.  If it doesn't work out, we'll be here for you.  The Sox know its very unlikely a team is going to give him a multi-year deal and give up a pick, at least not until like March.  They now have all the leverage in the world.  I assume Jose's agent will tell him he has to take the QO, or he'll sign the 2 year/$25-30M deal the Sox have been offering in the next 10 days.  

I think from the Sox fan perspective, best case scenario is that he does in fact reject the QO.  Because the likelihood of the Sox getting him on a 1 year $10-12M deal just went up exponentially in that scenario, though obviously we'd have to play the long game there and go through a large portion of the offseason without a DH or 1B. 

Bingo^

Hahn better be smart enough not to pay anywhere close to retail for Abreu in this environment. Vaughn might be knocking on the MLB door by next season anyway, and I truly believe the Sox do not want to go multi year with a player who will be 33 on opening day. Love Abreu, but the writing is on the wall. I hope he rejects the QO and we nab him later on for 1/11 or something.

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't think that is what happened here.  I doubt the Sox think he'll decline.  I think the Sox have probably been offering Jose a 2 year deal between $25-30M.  He wants more $ and years.  It got down to QO day, and they said OK Jose, we'd love to keep you but it has to be at a price that makes sense, so if you're unwilling to take this deal right now, we'll give you the QO offer then, feel free to test the market.  If it doesn't work out, we'll be here for you.  The Sox know its very unlikely a team is going to give him a multi-year deal and give up a pick, at least not until like March.  They now have all the leverage in the world.  I assume Jose's agent will tell him he has to take the QO, or he'll sign the 2 year/$25-30M deal the Sox have been offering in the next 10 days.  

I think from the Sox fan perspective, best case scenario is that he does in fact reject the QO.  Because the likelihood of the Sox getting him on a 1 year $10-12M deal just went up exponentially in that scenario, though obviously we'd have to play the long game there and go through a large portion of the offseason without a DH or 1B. 

So he is going to play the market a d wind up signing for less? I know it has happened before, but it happening here would mean his agent is awful. I fully expect him to either take this offer or sign another by the time his decision is due. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they have basically agreed already and this may have been a move Jose's camp asked for so he can never be offered a QO again . I would be shocked if he turned down the QO and met with other teams.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Dick Allen

[RTC]

Even if he rejects the QO he could still be back on a multi-year deal, just likely not at $18M/yr.  Heck didn't Moose reject the QO and end up back with the Royals for $5M?

[ChiSox59]

29 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

So he is going to play the market a d wind up signing for less? I know it has happened before, but it happening here would mean his agent is awful. I fully expect him to either take this offer or sign another by the time his decision is due. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they have basically agreed already and this may have been a move Jose's camp asked for so he can never be offered a QO again . I would be shocked if he turned down the QO and met with other teams.

I didn't say that is what I think would happen.  I said that would be best case scenario.

Jose is high as a kite if he rejects the QO. 

[GradMc]

If I was Jose I'd take heed of ELITE NBA Free Agent Anthony Davis  on whether he consider signing with the Bulls:  Anthony said he wants to concentrate on winning a championship...

OUCH !!

Right between the eyes Reinsdorf....LMAO.

Oh the sycophants / apologists will come out of woodwork now to defend Dear Chairman...

Edited November 5, 2019 by GradMc

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, RTC said:

Even if he rejects the QO he could still be back on a multi-year deal, just likely not at $18M/yr.  Heck didn't Moose reject the QO and end up back with the Royals for $5M?

Yes, but that was stupid, and now the QO being attached has suppressed mid range free agent contracts enough where having it happen again should disqualify an agent from ever being an agent again. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

So he is going to play the market a d wind up signing for less? I know it has happened before, but it happening here would mean his agent is awful. I fully expect him to either take this offer or sign another by the time his decision is due. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they have basically agreed already and this may have been a move Jose's camp asked for so he can never be offered a QO again . I would be shocked if he turned down the QO and met with other teams.

Scott Boras is a bad agent?

He had this happen to him recently.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

20 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Yes, but that was stupid, and now the QO being attached has suppressed mid range free agent contracts enough where having it happen again should disqualify an agent from ever being an agent again. 

Got it, so Scott Boras should not be allowed to be an agent ever again.

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Got it, so Scott Boras should not be allowed to be an agent ever again.

If he turns down a QO this year, and winds up settling for less, yes. It was a new thing a couple of years ago. O he gets a pass on Moose the first time although it was poor representation. Boras isn’t good for every player. There are quite a few that hav been stung by him. But if you are a stud he will get you your money.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Dick Allen