JDM staying in Boston

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

It wasn't the White Sox per se, but that athlete with decent numbers who is on a decline. Grandal's offense wasn't top notch last year. His value comes with his defense. If we bring him here and his offense continues to decline, how much value are we really getting compared to what we are paying? This makes sense if we plan on booting big game James next season. It's a tough call for Hahn because Martinez's bet is still very good, but it too can be in decline. But as an everyday DH, he can focus his efforts on hitting, which may even help with the back issues. If we sign Grandal, I think we need to trade for a really good hitting RF to maximize value. 

Grandal put up a wRC+ of 121 last year, which is slightly down from 2018 and exactly the same as 2017.  Those are the three best years of his career so no idea where this idea he’s declining is coming from.  Very few true DHs were better than him last year offensively.

[SonofaRoache]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Grandal put up a wRC+ of 121 last year, which is slightly down from 2018 and exactly the same as 2017.  Those are the three best years of his career so no idea where this idea he’s declining is coming from.  Very few true DHs were better than him last year offensively.

He declined as the year progressed. And his OPS has been solid, but nothing great. If we sign him we need to use his elite skillset, which is catching. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by SonofaRoache

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I think this is a very poor description of all of them. Dunn showed signs of falling off dramatically in the 2nd half before we signed him, but we didn't catch it at the time - 2 years into his deal we were all wishing we'd paid attention to that early sign of dropoff. LaRoche was a good player who we signed to a 2 year deal at age 35 - that one the age got us. Yonder's OPS dropped by 100 points between 2017-2018. We've been acquiring DHs as though it's the 90s, where they can last into their mid-late 30s, without paying attention to their ages or the first flashes of dropoff in their early 30s.

If Martinez came here and showed another dropoff in 2020, literally all of us would be pointing at the dropoff in 2019 and saying "F***, we shoulda seen this coming again". It's certainly not guaranteed, and Martinez could also easily be the one to break the trend,  but let's at least understand better how these things went. 

There haven’t been many exceptions to this rule...maybe Nick Markakis In 2018, Lowrie for one year then he really fell off, Zobrist was decent in 2018 but fell off...then you’ve got Nelson Cruz and Howie Kendrick.

JDM is considerably younger than those examples, and at least he’s been hitting in the AL...in an even more competitive division...but nobody would be shocked if he continued to decline, either, especially if you take into consideration the health issues.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I think this is a very poor description of all of them. Dunn showed signs of falling off dramatically in the 2nd half before we signed him, but we didn't catch it at the time - 2 years into his deal we were all wishing we'd paid attention to that early sign of dropoff. LaRoche was a good player who we signed to a 2 year deal at age 35 - that one the age got us. Yonder's OPS dropped by 100 points between 2017-2018. We've been acquiring DHs as though it's the 90s, where they can last into their mid-late 30s, without paying attention to their ages or the first flashes of dropoff in their early 30s.

If Martinez came here and showed another dropoff in 2020, literally all of us would be pointing at the dropoff in 2019 and saying "F***, we shoulda seen this coming again". It's certainly not guaranteed, and Martinez could also easily be the one to break the trend,  but let's at least understand better how these things went. 

Lol...you are so wrong about Dunn.  Dude’s “big fall-off” in the second half of 2010 was primarily BABIP related.  And one bad half (and it wasn’t even bad at a 114 wRC+) does NOT make a trend no matter how badly you want it to.  Also, from 2007 to 2010 on a full season basis he was one of the most consistent players in baseball history.  There were no warning signs of imminent decline with him.  Maybe you’re thinking of Todd Frazier or someone else.

As for LaRoche, maybe go check out his stats from 2010 to 2014.  He had 2 1/4 bad years and had two good years.  Add those together and he was not a “good player” and most definitely inconsistent.  And his 2015 season may have been age related, but honestly we’ll never know because Drake LaRoche happened.  But hey, that’s not going to stop you from drawing all sorts of conclusions as all you need is two periods to make a trend!

And what in the world was I wrong about with Alonso?  All I said he wasn’t very good, but was more talented than how played for us.  And for the millionth time, Yonder was not a baseball move, he was an incentive to try & lure Manny to the south-side.  No one thought he was the answer to anything, but keep fighting the good fight my man!

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

He declined as the year progressed. And his OPS has been solid, but nothing great. If we sign him we need to use his elite skillset, which is catching. 

He always declines as the year progresses as he’s a catcher who gets overplayed.  That’s not the sign of a downward age-related trend.

Also, I’d wager him starting 100 games at catcher and another 60 at DH would keep him more productive over the course of the season.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

8 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

He declined as the year progressed. And his OPS has been solid, but nothing great. If we sign him we need to use his elite skillset, which is catching. 

Analytics say Grandal is an elite catcher.  Baseball people do not.

Bruce: Yasmani Grandal was fantastic for the Brewers last year but will be 31 years old next season. Is he worth a 3-4 year contract at that age and will he get one?
Keith Law: The gap between the industry view of him and the online community’s (stat-based, especially framing-based) view of him is wider than it is on any other free agent, I think

 

 

[SonofaRoache]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He always declines as the year progresses as he’s a catcher who gets overplayed.  That’s not the sign of a downward age-related trend.

Also, I’d wager him starting 100 games at catcher and another 60 at DH would keep him more productive over the course of the season.

If we play him 100 games at catcher I'll be okay with the move. My main problem is getting an above average offensively player while paying him for elite defense, and then not even use his elite defense. I'm hearing people say play hom at 1B, C, and DH a third of the time each, would destroys his value to an organization. 

[SonofaRoache]

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Analytics say Grandal is an elite catcher.  Baseball people do not.

Bruce: Yasmani Grandal was fantastic for the Brewers last year but will be 31 years old next season. Is he worth a 3-4 year contract at that age and will he get one?
Keith Law: The gap between the industry view of him and the online community’s (stat-based, especially framing-based) view of him is wider than it is on any other free agent, I think

 

 

I'm sticking with the Stats on this one, people have agendas. 

[ChiSox59]

17 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

He declined as the year progressed. And his OPS has been solid, but nothing great. If we sign him we need to use his elite skillset, which is catching. 

Likely because he was forced to play in the field (no DH) and wore down as the season dragged on...like most catchers do.

Oh look - another positive to signing Grandal! 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

11 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I'm sticking with the Stats on this one, people have agendas. 

Because it fits your agenda.  

[SoxBlanco]

14 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Analytics say Grandal is an elite catcher.  Baseball people do not.

Bruce: Yasmani Grandal was fantastic for the Brewers last year but will be 31 years old next season. Is he worth a 3-4 year contract at that age and will he get one?
Keith Law: The gap between the industry view of him and the online community’s (stat-based, especially framing-based) view of him is wider than it is on any other free agent, I think

 

 

This is exactly why I am leaning toward preferring JDM now.  I have been pushing hard on this message board that Grandal is a better fit than JDM for many reasons, but I am starting to sway the other way.  There is something that certain catchers possess that can't be quantified, and I don't really know how to describe it. It's a combination of game calling, handling pitchers, framing, etc.

AJ had it. McCann has it. No other catcher the White Sox have had in between those two have had it, and based on my limited time watching Grandal as well as what I have read about him, I don't think Grandal has it.

[SonofaRoache]

13 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Because it fits your agenda.  

I didn't create the stats, and everyone is judged with the same criteria. I favor stats to avoid having too much of a biased opinion. 

[SonofaRoache]

26 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Likely because he was forced to play in the field (no DH) and wore down as the season dragged on...like most catchers do.

Oh look - another positive to signing Grandal! 

Signing Grandal is not a negative thing. It is essentially picking a great hitter who is a clubhouse leader and champion with zero defense, or a great defensive catcher who is an above average hitter. My stance is simple. I think Big Game and Collins can handle catching duties for now. I think our efforts would be better served bringing in a stud pitcher, hitter, and a competent right fielder. 

[MiddleCoastBias]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Analytics say Grandal is an elite catcher.  Baseball people do not.

Bruce: Yasmani Grandal was fantastic for the Brewers last year but will be 31 years old next season. Is he worth a 3-4 year contract at that age and will he get one?
Keith Law: The gap between the industry view of him and the online community’s (stat-based, especially framing-based) view of him is wider than it is on any other free agent, I think

 

 

If the industry doesn't like him, and the industry are the ones giving out the contract offers, doesn't that mean we can get a player we like for less than expected because others won't be spending "stupid money" on him? Any discount for a good/great all-around player that meets multiple Sox needs means more that can be allocated to fix our other needs ie pitching and RF. I'm a supporter of signing JDM but I also want to be smart about what else we can target.

[SonofaRoache]

I've been reading JD news from the Boston side of things and they keep saying if he gets the QO attached, the Red Sox would get a 4th rounder. Is this true? I'd have no problem giving up and 2nd and 4th for two stud FA's. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by SonofaRoache

[Balta1701]

44 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I've been reading JD news from the Boston side of things and they keep saying if he gets the QO attached, the Red Sox would get a 4th rounder. Is this true? I'd have no problem giving up and 2nd and 4th for two stud FA's. 

What the Red Sox get and what the White Sox give up is not necessarily the same thing, the penalty only applies to the Red Sox, the White Sox would give up their 2nd rounder for their first signing with a QO attached. 

Quote

A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first round-pick.

If a qualifying-offer free agent's previous team is over the luxury-tax threshold, said team will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round has been completed.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What the Red Sox get and what the White Sox give up is not necessarily the same thing, the penalty only applies to the Red Sox, the White Sox would give up their 2nd and 5th rounder for their first signing with a QO attached. 

 

The White Sox aren’t a luxury tax paying team and would only give up their 2nd rounder (plus international bonus pool money we won’t spend!!) if they sign a free agent with a QO.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The White Sox aren’t a luxury tax paying team and would only give up their 2nd rounder (plus international bonus pool money we won’t spend!!) if they sign a free agent with a QO.

You're right, was looking at wrong column. 

[SonofaRoache]

Thanks for clearing that up. So it's s not like football where our pick would go to them. So if we sign three QO guys we'd lose our 2nd, 3rd, and 4th? 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Analytics say Grandal is an elite catcher.  Baseball people do not.

Bruce: Yasmani Grandal was fantastic for the Brewers last year but will be 31 years old next season. Is he worth a 3-4 year contract at that age and will he get one?
Keith Law: The gap between the industry view of him and the online community’s (stat-based, especially framing-based) view of him is wider than it is on any other free agent, I think

 

 

I mean, all you need to do is watch the dude play. He’s one guy that I just can’t wrap my head around his off the charts defensive rankings.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

This is exactly why I am leaning toward preferring JDM now.  I have been pushing hard on this message board that Grandal is a better fit than JDM for many reasons, but I am starting to sway the other way.  There is something that certain catchers possess that can't be quantified, and I don't really know how to describe it. It's a combination of game calling, handling pitchers, framing, etc.

AJ had it. McCann has it. No other catcher the White Sox have had in between those two have had it, and based on my limited time watching Grandal as well as what I have read about him, I don't think Grandal has it.

There’s still hope for you ?

[Chicago White Sox]

12 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

Thanks for clearing that up. So it's s not like football where our pick would go to them. So if we sign three QO guys we'd lose our 2nd, 3rd, and 4th? 

That’s correct.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I mean, all you need to do is watch the dude play. He’s one guy that I just can’t wrap my head around his off the charts defensive rankings.

You don’t think he’s a good framer?

[SonofaRoache]

The good news about waiting on JDs decision is that he is finding out if we will pay him. So these 5 days aren't just going to waste, we are informing him of how much we are willing to pay. If he does opt outs chances are we've come to an agreement on a price. 

[Whisox05]