Projecting the 2020 White Sox based on FA outcomes

[thxfrthmmrs]

This an early-but-not-too-early projection of the 2020 White Sox based on the different scenarios of how free agency could unfold for the team. Point is, we have a good young core costing next to nothing and ample money to spend, so let's see how this could play out.

First off, a baseline of how the 2019 White Sox stacked up against AL playoff teams, going by fWAR. I also added 2018 Twins in there as a case study of a team making significant improvements without marquee off season moves:

Next comes free agency, and it could play out in a number of ways depending on how much confidence you have in this FO and JR's willingness (or unwillingness) to open his checkbook. I am taking some of the common names thrown around in different Soxtalk threads and projected contract value:

Now projecting fWAR and win totals for each scenario:

The fWAR projections may be optimistic for some and not aggressive enough for others. Basically this assumes:

- Anderson and McCann will slightly regress

- Bullpen is a wash between Colome, Marshall and/or a few others regressing but Herrera, Fry improving, as well as adding a high leverage arm

- Abreu, Giolito, and Moncada producing at the same level, Robert and Madrigal producing at league average for 80% of the season

- Eloy taking a step forward and two of ReyLo/Cease/Kopech giving you 180 innings at 4.50 ERA.

Also, obviously, Sox would be making some trades, but it's too much of a reach to project any trades, but you could safely assume any trade will either have net neutral or positive affect on the WAR total, unless we have another Alonso-esque blunder.

The result is surprising, but the Sox, on their current path, would be a better team than some folks are anticipating even with a sad but not out of the possibility free agency showing. How are we getting there? Between DH/RF we were at an awful -4.8 WAR. By replacing those positions with league average players, we're adding 7-8 wins to our 72 win season. On top of that, bench play should improve with Leury and Mendick anchoring. Adding 2 SP arms and with some natural progression from the group of ReyLo, Cease, Kopech and Eloy, this is suddenly an 85 win team, if not more.

TLDR; even with a disappoint offseason (though seriously hoping Hahn would have more stones), with a couple of breaks going in Sox favor and some mid-season additions, this team could at least fight for a WC spot in 2020. 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Great post.  This is what I’ve been trying to articulate for a while now.  We have an opportunity to take a massive leap forward with a good offseason, even if we don’t add any of the top three guys.  The key is being aggressive right out of the gate.  While I’d love to add Cole or Strasburg, I don’t think we can afford waiting around until February and risk coming out empty-handed (which is the likely outcome).  We need to go hard after guys like Wheeler & Grandal from the get-go and try to close out deals during or just shortly after the Winter Meetings.  I don’t care what anyone says, there is zero reason we can’t land both those guys and Hahn needs to finally deliver.  If he does, I think we’ll actually competitive baseball in 2020.

[bmags]

44 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Great post.  This is what I’ve been trying to articulate for a while now.  We have an opportunity to take a massive leap forward with a good offseason, even if we don’t add any of the top three guys.  The key is being aggressive right out of the gate.  While I’d love to add Cole or Strasburg, I don’t think we can afford waiting around until February and risk coming out empty-handed (which is the likely outcome).  We need to go hard after guys like Wheeler & Grandal from the get-go and try to close out deals during or just shortly after the Winter Meetings.  I don’t care what anyone says, there is zero reason we can’t land both those guys and Hahn needs to finally deliver.  If he does, I think we’ll actually competitive baseball in 2020.

To me this argues the importance of going after the elite guys available.

The higher risk of Sox getting scared and striking out is way higher with them, but I feel like factoring that in just forces people to accept the Sox own framing that those players are “riskier” therefore the Sox have reason for their skiddishness - and it becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

To me this argues the importance of going after the elite guys available.

The higher risk of Sox getting scared and striking out is way higher with them, but I feel like factoring that in just forces people to accept the Sox own framing that those players are “riskier” therefore the Sox have reason for their skiddishness - and it becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

But what if Cole gets injured...never returns to normal but only gets an insurance subsidy of about 40-60% against one season that he misses with TJ surgery.  

Thinking something like a Matt Cain second half career here.

Its fine if there was a near guarantee (like Betts) that he was going to put up 6 fWAR in 2020-21-22-23-24.

 

How not to be skittish when contracts like Danks and Adam Dunn practically sunk the franchise without being over $68.5 million?

This deal is going to be something like FOUR times that size.

Edited November 6, 2019 by caulfield12

[SoxPride56]

This might be a dumb question, but where did you get the fWAR numbers from?

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, SoxPride56 said:

This might be a dumb question, but where did you get the fWAR numbers from?

Fangraphs...you can enter player’s name, then go to season stats and click on advanced.

[SoxPride56]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Fangraphs...you can enter player’s name, then go to season stats and click on advanced.

Thank you!

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

But what if Cole gets injured...never returns to normal but only gets an insurance subsidy of about 40-60% against one season that he misses with TJ surgery.  

Thinking something like a Matt Cain second half career here.

Its fine if there was a near guarantee (like Betts) that he was going to put up 6 fWAR in 2020-21-22-23-24.

 

How not to be skittish when contracts like Danks and Adam Dunn practically sunk the franchise without being over $68.5 million?

This deal is going to be something like FOUR times that size.

I know Sox fans don't want to admit it, but the risk of a Cole or Stras contract is massive. I know people say arm contracts have been moveable, but if Cole or Stras goes down with a serious arm injury that sets the franchise back as they can't really afford to eat 250 million or 200 million for anyone. They just don't have that kind of financial flexibility.

Mookie, as you pointed out is a much more sure thing than the arms. It's hard to rationalize investing 25-20% of your payroll on one pitcher when you're a non-premium revenue franchise. 

[steveno89]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I know Sox fans don't want to admit it, but the risk of a Cole or Stras contract is massive. I know people say arm contracts have been moveable, but if Cole or Stras goes down with a serious arm injury that sets the franchise back as they can't really afford to eat 250 million or 200 million for anyone. They just don't have that kind of financial flexibility.

Mookie, as you pointed out is a much more sure thing than the arms. It's hard to rationalize investing 25-20% of your payroll on one pitcher when you're a non-premium revenue franchise. 

Sox cannot likely afford a Cole/Stras, but we need to land one of Bumgarner/Wheeler/Ryu AND a backend starter. Sprinkle in Encarnacion, a RF either in trade or FA, ideally Grandal and a pen arm and we would be cooking in 2020.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

To me this argues the importance of going after the elite guys available.

The higher risk of Sox getting scared and striking out is way higher with them, but I feel like factoring that in just forces people to accept the Sox own framing that those players are “riskier” therefore the Sox have reason for their skiddishness - and it becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for the Sox throwing some big offer in front of Cole or Strasburg in December.  But Boras is gonna Boras and he’ll simply shop that offer around and play the slow game until someone does something drastic.  I’d rather not miss out on Wheeler while we hope we’re the lucky winners for the elite guys.  It sucks that MLB free agency is broken, but we can’t put all our eggs in the Boras basket and risk throwing away a year.  And that really sucks for us, because I think Cole is the ideal free agent for us, more so than Machado or Harper even.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

 @thxfrthmmrs

Great use of using 3 different signing classes to project various outcomes. Looks like your "I dig this" is closest to mine where you used Moose, Gardner and Wheeler while omitting Grandal. I do love Grandal  but I'm afraid he might be one of those guys who takes longer to sign unless he gets 4/$80M right away just based on how he talks about setting the bar for all catchers worth. I prefer Dickerson in RF but that's splitting hairs.

You also used Moose in that scenario which I think would make the team stronger in case of injury and makes the team more versatile without signing a DH.

I know you used standard projected WAR and those did not change in the projections. I specifically am looking at the projections of Madrigal and Robert. I can easily imagine a 3/4 WAR from Robert considering his fielding should be above average and his bat can also be a plus right away especially if Eloy can get in his head because it seems pretty clear that Robert will be pitched too in much the same manner that they pitched to Eloy . With Eloy's help maybe Robert can make the adjustment sooner.

Your " I Dig This" also gives a bigger role to Collins for better or worse because him succeeding would really make the Sox so much better in the lineup and with payroll. It also give more money to the bullpen.

"I Dig This" also leave room to add more payroll for 2021.

Edited November 6, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[mqr]

16 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

This an early-but-not-too-early projection of the 2020 White Sox based on the different scenarios of how free agency could unfold for the team. Point is, we have a good young core costing next to nothing and ample money to spend, so let's see how this could play out.

First off, a baseline of how the 2019 White Sox stacked up against AL playoff teams, going by fWAR. I also added 2018 Twins in there as a case study of a team making significant improvements without marquee off season moves:

Next comes free agency, and it could play out in a number of ways depending on how much confidence you have in this FO and JR's willingness (or unwillingness) to open his checkbook. I am taking some of the common names thrown around in different Soxtalk threads and projected contract value:

Now projecting fWAR and win totals for each scenario:

The fWAR projections may be optimistic for some and not aggressive enough for others. Basically this assumes:

- Anderson and McCann will slightly regress

- Bullpen is a wash between Colome, Marshall and/or a few others regressing but Herrera, Fry improving, as well as adding a high leverage arm

- Abreu, Giolito, and Moncada producing at the same level, Robert and Madrigal producing at league average for 80% of the season

- Eloy taking a step forward and two of ReyLo/Cease/Kopech giving you 180 innings at 4.50 ERA.

Also, obviously, Sox would be making some trades, but it's too much of a reach to project any trades, but you could safely assume any trade will either have net neutral or positive affect on the WAR total, unless we have another Alonso-esque blunder.

The result is surprising, but the Sox, on their current path, would be a better team than some folks are anticipating even with a sad but not out of the possibility free agency showing. How are we getting there? Between DH/RF we were at an awful -4.8 WAR. By replacing those positions with league average players, we're adding 7-8 wins to our 72 win season. On top of that, bench play should improve with Leury and Mendick anchoring. Adding 2 SP arms and with some natural progression from the group of ReyLo, Cease, Kopech and Eloy, this is suddenly an 85 win team, if not more.

TLDR; even with a disappoint offseason (though seriously hoping Hahn would have more stones), with a couple of breaks going in Sox favor and some mid-season additions, this team could at least fight for a WC spot in 2020. 

 

This is what I have been saying to every person immediately saying 'Typical White Sox' to every second tier move. 

The Sox are already much deeper now than they were when they were signing Melky Cabrera, they could get away with it now. 

They won 72 games playing people who have no business being professional baseball players at 4 positions. Even just average players there should give you a bump to the 80-85 range and you just hope for continued improvement from young players from there. 

Aim high, but don't do nothing. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 hours ago, SoxPride56 said:

This might be a dumb question, but where did you get the fWAR numbers from?

Just so you know the f in fWAR means fangraphs while the b in bWAR means Baseball Reference.

[thxfrthmmrs]

13 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Great post.  This is what I’ve been trying to articulate for a while now.  We have an opportunity to take a massive leap forward with a good offseason, even if we don’t add any of the top three guys.  The key is being aggressive right out of the gate.  While I’d love to add Cole or Strasburg, I don’t think we can afford waiting around until February and risk coming out empty-handed (which is the likely outcome).  We need to go hard after guys like Wheeler & Grandal from the get-go and try to close out deals during or just shortly after the Winter Meetings.  I don’t care what anyone says, there is zero reason we can’t land both those guys and Hahn needs to finally deliver.  If he does, I think we’ll actually competitive baseball in 2020.

 

12 hours ago, bmags said:

To me this argues the importance of going after the elite guys available.

The higher risk of Sox getting scared and striking out is way higher with them, but I feel like factoring that in just forces people to accept the Sox own framing that those players are “riskier” therefore the Sox have reason for their skiddishness - and it becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

My key takeaways are:

1) You could make the playoffs with a core group of good players and a few stars (see Rays, A's, Twins), which the Sox are set up to do if they push payroll to $130M . However these teams are not setup to go far in the playoffs, see those 3 teams in 2019. Only 2005 White Sox and 2015 Royals are recent exceptions off the top of my head. 

2) It is an interesting debating between having star position players vs star pitchers. e.g. Cole or Betts for $35M+ AAV. Huge investment in pitchers are obviously more risky as pointed out throughout this thread but it is also absolutely necessary to have a strong rotation to go far in postseason, as witnessed by the Nats and Astros. Yankees and Twins had a historically good offense but flamed out in postseason. I don't see Giolito being the ace of a WS team

3) If we do not acquire a star via FA, it puts some much more pressure on Moncada, Robert and Kopech to reach their potential as star players, and we supplement with good players via FA. If two of these players do not become elite players and we fail to acquire one via FA, then that's where this rebuild is ultimately a failure (in the sense that it will only be a WC or first round exit team)

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

 

My key takeaways are:

1) You could make the playoffs with a core group of good players and a few stars (see Rays, A's, Twins), which the Sox are set up to do if they push payroll to $130M . However these teams are not setup to go far in the playoffs, see those 3 teams in 2019. Only 2005 White Sox and 2015 Royals are recent exceptions off the top of my head. 

2) It is an interesting debating between having star position players vs star pitchers. e.g. Cole or Betts for $35M+ AAV. Huge investment in pitchers are obviously more risky as pointed out throughout this thread but it is also absolutely necessary to have a strong rotation to go far in postseason, as witnessed by the Nats and Astros. Yankees and Twins had a historically good offense but flamed out in postseason. I don't see Giolito being the ace of a WS team

3) If we do not acquire a star via FA, it puts some much more pressure on Moncada, Robert and Kopech to reach their potential as star players, and we supplement with good players via FA. If two of these players do not become elite players and we fail to acquire one via FA, then that's where this rebuild is ultimately a failure (in the sense that it will only be a WC or first round exit team)

In the end, the volatility of paying top FA dollars to pitching has to move the pendulum over to the $300+ million deals going to position players.   Even Wheeler, a "$70-80 million value," has been conjectured to be flying well into the low $100's because of supply and demand issues.

You simply HAVE TO develop your own pitchers internally, unless you're one of the Top 3-5 payroll teams and can go out like the Cubs did and preemptively strike for a Lester.

We did the same thing in 2004 for Contreras and Garcia, not knowing how good Jose was going to turn out for the last two months of 2005 and first two months of 2006.

Kopech and/or Cease need to reach TOR status, to go along with Giolito and Lopez....at least 3 of those guys, at a minimum..  Look what happened with Rodon, Fulmer, Alec Hansen, for example, Spencer Adams, almost every Round 1-3 pick in the pitching area over the last half-decade.  (Hopefully Stiever/Thompson can make the leap.)

Or go back to 1998-2001 and look at how many of those top pitching prospects (in the #1-ranked BA group) actually turned out to have good/successful careers...Buehrle, Garland, Wells and Fogg with the Pirates, that was pretty much it out of a pitching depth chart of prospects that went TEN deep.

 

 

Edited November 7, 2019 by caulfield12

[thxfrthmmrs]

6 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 @thxfrthmmrs

Great use of using 3 different signing classes to project various outcomes. Looks like your "I dig this" is closest to mine where you used Moose, Gardner and Wheeler while omitting Grandal. I do love Grandal  but I'm afraid he might be one of those guys who takes longer to sign unless he gets 4/$80M right away just based on how he talks about setting the bar for all catchers worth. I prefer Dickerson in RF but that's splitting hairs.

You also used Moose in that scenario which I think would make the team stronger in case of injury and makes the team more versatile without signing a DH.

I know you used standard projected WAR and those did not change in the projections. I specifically am looking at the projections of Madrigal and Robert. I can easily imagine a 3/4 WAR from Robert considering his fielding should be above average and his bat can also be a plus right away especially if Eloy can get in his head because it seems pretty clear that Robert will be pitched too in much the same manner that they pitched to Eloy . With Eloy's help maybe Robert can make the adjustment sooner.

Your " I Dig This" also gives a bigger role to Collins for better or worse because him succeeding would really make the Sox so much better in the lineup and with payroll. It also give more money to the bullpen.

"I Dig This" also leave room to add more payroll for 2021.

If Robert comes up in May, he would a shot at a 3/4 WAR season. He was one I was being more conservative with. Heck if his fielding at CF is as good as advertised, he'd be a 2 WAR player even with below average offense. But with his raw offensive approach and injury history, I thought it made more sense to be more conservative with his projection. Anything more we could get from him only makes the 2020 team stronger.

[BackDoorBreach]

2 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

If Robert comes up in May, he would a shot at a 3/4 WAR season. He was one I was being more conservative with. Heck if his fielding at CF is as good as advertised, he'd be a 2 WAR player even with below average offense. But with his raw offensive approach and injury history, I thought it made more sense to be more conservative with his projection. Anything more we could get from him only makes the 2020 team stronger.

Robert has a floor of 2 WAR next year even if he really struggles at the plate.  I personally think he doesn't struggle too bad in the early months.  Definitely exciting.

[thxfrthmmrs]

25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

In the end, the volatility of paying top FA dollars to pitching has to move the pendulum over to the $300+ million deals going to position players.   Even Wheeler, a "$70-80 million value," has been conjectured to be flying well into the low $100's because of supply and demand issues.

You simply HAVE TO develop your own pitchers internally, unless you're one of the Top 3-5 payroll teams and can go out like the Cubs did and preemptively strike for a Lester.

We did the same thing in 2004 for Contreras and Garcia, not knowing how good Jose was going to turn out for the last two months of 2005 and first two months of 2006.

Kopech and/or Cease need to reach TOR status, to go along with Giolito and Lopez....at least 3 of those guys, at a minimum..  Look what happened with Rodon, Fulmer, Alec Hansen, for example, Spencer Adams, almost every Round 1-3 pick in the pitching area over the last half-decade.  (Hopefully Stiever/Thompson can make the leap.)

Or go back to 1998-2001 and look at how many of those top pitching prospects (in the #1-ranked BA group) actually turned out to have good/successful careers...Buehrle, Garland, Wells and Fogg with the Pirates, that was pretty much it out of a pitching depth chart of prospects that went TEN deep.

 

 

Your comment here makes a case to sign a elite SP in FA. Good pitching and great pitching is the difference between a good playoff team and a great playoff team.

[caulfield12]

Except we didn't pay top of the market FA dollars for Contreras and Garcia when a previous #1 farm system collapsed in terms of injuries/non-performance.

That's where not having the equivalent of Olivo Morse and Reed to deal in the system of today is really hamstringing our available starting options on the trade market. 

Edited November 7, 2019 by caulfield12