Potential Deals with Boston

[Balta1701]

30 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Based on what? You cant use the FA/WAR/$ figure. That number, once again, is not how teams value their signings.

Benetendi has played 3 full years in the big leagues - two years were at a 2 WAR rate. One year was at a 4 WAR rate. 

He's averaging 2.8 WAR a year over three years. That's about $15-$17 million a year. 

That's how I get to the 45-50 million number over the next three years.

Huh? You're just randomly applying a discount to Benintendi's production under a statement that "that's not how teams value their signings"? But we're literally balancing this concept versus the idea of acquiring guys as free agents. You've just discounted a guy for a reason that makes no sense. 

[Jack Parkman]

20 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Then we just need a 2B for the next 7 seasons.  This doesn't really solve anything, just robbing Peter to pay Paul.  

No. You sign Moustakas and move Moncada back to 2B. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Huh? You're just randomly applying a discount to Benintendi's production under a statement that "that's not how teams value their signings"? But we're literally balancing this concept versus the idea of acquiring guys as free agents. You've just discounted a guy for a reason that makes no sense. 

How did I discount him? Again, teams are not paying 9 million per WAR. 

I have no idea why people continue to cite a number that isnt based on what teams are paying for WAR but what teams are getting out of their dollars. Those are two dramatically different things. 

Do you notice that Castellanos isnt projected to earn 25 million a year? Do you notice how his contracts forecasts are coming in at the 15-17 million a year a year? Thats because 2-3 WAR players are worth about 6 million per WAR in free agency. Now pair that with the fact that defensive value is not paid as equally as offensive value and benetendi is worth even less.

I'm not making the number up; I'm basing my forecasts based on what teams pays for projections not outcomes. I'm using 10+ years of data to determine a 6-7 million dollar number. 1 is worth about 5 million, 2 WAR is worth 12 million, 3 WAR is worth 18-20 million. It does not scale equally as you scale upward.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

How did I discount him? Again, teams are not paying 9 million per WAR. 

I have no idea why people continue to cite a number that isnt based on what teams are paying for WAR but what teams are getting out of their dollars. Those are two dramatically different things. 

Do you notice that Castellanos isnt projected to earn 25 million a year? Do you notice how his contracts forecasts are coming in at the 15-17 million a year a year? Thats because 2-3 WAR players are worth about 6 million per WAR in free agency. Now pair that with the fact that defensive value is not paid as equally as offensive value and benetendi is worth even less.

But you're failing to fill in your own logic loop. You're saying that teams want to pay $6 million per WAR because that's how they value players, but they wind up paying over $10 million because of injuries and poor performance.

You're then discounting Price and Benintendi by that amount.

But then you project Bummer's surplus value over the next 4 years, 3 of which are arb years, to be $30 million. He was worth 1.3 WAR/$10.2 million this year - so assuming he keeps those numbers up and was a dominant reliever the next 4 years, he'd produce $40 million in value the next 4 years and maybe be paid $10-$15 million for it through arbitration. To count him as $30 million - you're taking him at the full free agent value price for that position.

So you're discounting Price and Benintendi, but then you're treating Bummer in the exact way you say you can't treat Price and Benintendi.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But you're failing to fill in your own logic loop. You're saying that teams want to pay $6 million per WAR because that's how they value players, but they wind up paying over $10 million because of injuries and poor performance.

You're then discounting Price and Benintendi by that amount.

But then you project Bummer's surplus value over the next 4 years, 3 of which are arb years, to be $30 million. He was worth 1.3 WAR/$10.2 million this year - so assuming he keeps those numbers up and was a dominant reliever the next 4 years, he'd produce $40 million in value the next 4 years and maybe be paid $10-$15 million for it through arbitration. To count him as $30 million - you're taking him at the full free agent value price for that position.

So you're discounting Price and Benintendi, but then you're treating Bummer in the exact way you say you can't treat Price and Benintendi.

Surplus value is determined by what teams project to pay, not what they pay because some dumb teams give Pujols a 30 year offer at 31 years old. 

I'm not discounting anything. That's what benetendi is worth. If the markets pays castellanos 16 million I have no idea how you can argue that Benetendi is worth 23 million a season. 

Relievers are not paid on a WAR basis so I'm not sure what I'm doing with bummer.

I'm not sure how many times it can be said that 1 WAR is not worth 9 million.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not sure how many times it can be said that 1 WAR is not worth 9 million.

But that's literally exactly how you valued Bummer. There is no other way that Bummer, a 1 WAR player, can come to  the $40 million in total value/$30 million in surplus value you gave him over 4 years.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Can we at least try to avoid going full Jace Fry on Bummer?? Or does this board HAVE to severely overrate every Sox player that has some success? It’s not like his peripherals were phenomenal and his FIP certainly doesn’t match up....I have a hard time believing any team is giving Bummer an evaluation of 10’s of millions right now 

[ChiSox59]

39 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No. You sign Moustakas and move Moncada back to 2B. 

No. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But that's literally exactly how you valued Bummer. There is no other way that Bummer, a 1 WAR player, can come to  the $40 million in total value/$30 million in surplus value you gave him over 4 years.

I valued bummer at the same rate other high leverage relievers are being paid.

I think you're right that I valued him too highly because he hasnt duplicated his performance yet so the volatility is still there. I think you're right that I'm valuing him at his peak market value opposed to the potential demise or regression of his talents. Even if we cut the figure in half to 15 million, and reduce steiver to about 5, the sox are still negative 30 million in surplus at that trade.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Can we at least try to avoid going full Jace Fry on Bummer?? Or does this board HAVE to severely overrate every Sox player that has some success? It’s not like his peripherals were phenomenal and his FIP certainly doesn’t match up....I have a hard time believing any team is giving Bummer an evaluation of 10’s of millions right now 

Bummers best pitch is one that has aged really well for relievers - a high velocity high movement sinker. 

Jace Frys best pitch is one he doesnt control all that well - his slider. If Jace could throw that pitch with more consistency I think he'd be fine. 

I do agree that volatility in relievers needs to be accounted for and one year of success does not make bummer a guarantee. His K numbers also need to increase a bit because his FIP puts him more in the middle than at the top.

[Lillian]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Hypothetically, if it was Price + Benintendi for Bummer and Stiever, no money moving, how's that?

I haven't finished reading all of the posts, in this thread, but I would not give up Bummer and Steeper, in that deal. That's a lot of payroll to take on, while giving up a young, cost controlled potential closer. 

[Jack Parkman]

26 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

No. 

Or you sign Moustakas and play him at 2B

 

[Balta1701]

31 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I valued bummer at the same rate other high leverage relievers are being paid.

I think you're right that I valued him too highly because he hasnt duplicated his performance yet so the volatility is still there. I think you're right that I'm valuing him at his peak market value opposed to the potential demise or regression of his talents. Even if we cut the figure in half to 15 million, and reduce steiver to about 5, the sox are still negative 30 million in surplus at that trade.

Now that I've got you to more reasonable numbers; if Boston included $20 million total, is that a deal you'd do? It's not perfectly balanced but there's a lot of upside for the White Sox to get 2 good players right now.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think the Sox will go over $130M.  Maybe not in 2020, but they will go over. Its not like the organization has never eclipsed $130M in the past.  

Then I do not think PRice's contract kills you.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Now that I've got you to more reasonable numbers; if Boston included $20 million total, is that a deal you'd do? It's not perfectly balanced but there's a lot of upside for the White Sox to get 2 good players right now.

Now we're getting closer. We are at a point, finally!, in which present value is as valuable to the Sox as future value. 

You throw in the 20 million, dropping Price down to a more reasonable 25 million a year and now I see some equality.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Lillian]

Don't you guys think that all of these WAR valuations might be somewhat mitigated by Boston's desperation to shed salary? How much money do you suppose they would have to include, if a team offered to simply take Price and his contract, off their hands? I'm not suggesting that would be a wise thing for Hahn to do, but rather, i'm merely trying to assess the degree of desperation that Boston's GM might be feeling.

[tray]

II might start out offering  lower tier pitching prospects plus Yolmer and/ or Collins for Bennintendi.

Not sure I would offer much more...possibly Vaughn for a package of  Benni plus Eovaldi,  but I would not trade one of our untouchables, and IMO Madrigal is an untouchable at this point.

This has been an interesting thread to read and to contemplate some of the ideas.  I really like Bennintendi as a potential RF for us.

 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Lillian said:

Don't you guys think that all of these WAR valuations might be somewhat mitigated by Boston's desperation to shed salary? How much money do you suppose they would have to include, if a team offered to simply take Price and his contract, off their hands? I'm not suggesting that would be a wise thing for Hahn to do, but rather, i'm merely trying to assess the degree of desperation that Boston's GM might be feeling.

To get a team serious about taking Price off their hands I think they'd have to include at least $30 million of the remaining $96 million. The Astros sent good players for Greinke, and got $24 million back out of $77 million. Both of those are just under 1/3 of the deal paid by the team sending the player out. Greinke has outperformed Price over the past few years, so that's why Greinke would bring back more in terms of players with that financial return happening. 

[bighurt574]

It would really be something if a salary dumped David Price broke Abreu's $68M contract record for Reinsdorf.  There's some logic to it but I don't know if I can see it happening. 

[GreenSox]

Trading for these RedSox players on 1 year contracts would be  lazy and overall ridiculous.  Just another clown act instead of real baseball work.

OR they could do what winning organizations do, and try to get what they actually need (pitching) on the open market or via trades for YOUNG talent with multiple years.

Edited November 7, 2019 by GreenSox

[joejoesox]

13 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Trading for these RedSox players on 1 year contracts would be  lazy and overall ridiculous.  Just another clown act instead of real baseball work.

OR they could do what winning organizations do, and try to get what they actually need (pitching) on the open market or via trades for YOUNG talent with multiple years.

this is why I feel going all in on FA this offseason is a dumb move, wait til next year and supplement your team until then

[Chicago White Sox]

7 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Steamer projects Benetendi and Price to combine for a 5.0 WAR. It uses 29 starts for price. Giving up nothing would still  require  financial relief.

And with what they pay to attend games, good like getting the fanbase to accept giving up Benetendi as part of a salary dump.

For a similar price I think you could get Wheeler & Castellanos and they’d probably give you close to 7 WAR.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 hours ago, bmags said:

LA took on $250 million dollars 7 years ago, and AGon was market priced at the time. Benintendi is underpriced. 

Boston is also not in a binary world where this is the only deal possible to get out from their salary issues. They can likely shed much of the price salary without giving up a young cheap asset.

OR they can give a non-ML roster asset.

How can they shed much of Price’s salary?

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Hypothetically, if it was Price + Benintendi for Bummer and Stiever, no money moving, how's that?

That’s a dreadful deal for us IMO.

[bschmaranz]

Me thinks a lot of people think Benintendi is better than he actually is.