Abreu Signs 3/$50M Extension

[mmmmmbeeer]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Leadership and mentor-ship and guidance matter, but you can't measure them in baseball.  And if you can't measure it...

Which is precisely my point; your calculations are flawed because they're unable to account for non-quantifiable contributions and benefits.   

So you truly believe if you can't measure something, it just doesn't matter?  Really?

And let me be clear, this contract is an overpay.  That said, the difference between SABR value and contract value is not so great that it cannot be justified by these intangible benefits.  It's not like they gave him a 4/100 deal or something completely unjustifiable.  

[poppysox]

5 hours ago, mqr said:

Abreu is totally gonna get his number retired isn't he?

Yeah sure you betcha.

[hi8is]

It’s not my money.

[BackDoorBreach]

1 minute ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

Which is precisely my point; your calculations are flawed because they're unable to account for non-quantifiable contributions and benefits.   

So you truly believe if you can't measure something, it just doesn't matter?  Really?

And let me be clear, this contract is an overpay.  That said, the difference between SABR value and contract value is not so great that it cannot be justified by these intangible benefits.  It's not like they gave him a 4/100 deal or something completely unjustifiable.  

It's completely unjustifiable because there was ZERO reason to extend him. We are stuck with him now in years of contention.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Honestly, I’m far more annoyed by your ridiculous defense of the deal than by the deal itself.  Saying there really is no risk is just plain dumb.  We are talking about a poor fielding, 33 year old 1B who is currently about 15% better than a league average hitter.  Refusing to acknowledge the very real possibility that he’s replacement level or worse by 2022 while eating up potentially 10% of our total payroll space is one of the most insane arguments I have ever seen on this site.  You’re obviously a smart guy, but it’s hard to take you seriously at times when you will literally defend anything & everything this organization does.

Great and they'd be paying a replacement player about 10 million more than they should. Who cares?

His 2021 contract should have zero impact on any future signings then.

You're giving them a hard cap. It's not like if there was a player available in 2020 fa that they'd pass because it would surpass the 140 million budget for one year because of abreu.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Dominikk85]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Great and they'd be paying a replacement player about 10 million more than they should. Who cares?

His 2021 contract should have zero impact on any future signings then.

I agree. I showed in my post above that the deal is about 10 mil under water (aging curve projection suggests 3/40) which isn't ideal but 10 mil over 3 years (3.3 per year) shouldn't cripple the payrol. 

The deal isn't great but it isn't that negative, at least not in a manner that should cripple the sox.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Great and they'd be paying a replacement player about 10 million more than they should. Who cares?

His 2021 contract should have zero impact on any future signings then.

Would you like to put a wager on the White Sox never once complaining that they're poor in any way, shape, or form over the length of this contract, or using that as an excuse for why they couldn't sign someone else? (How would we extend our next core if we signed someone to a guarantee for 2027/2028? Can't spend a dollar when you only have whatever?) 

[ChiSox59]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

How is it a spin?

He is being paid 14 million dollars in 2022, not 18 million. The spin is people claiming he's being paid 18 million in year 3, and that it hampers the flexibility. That's simply not true. 

His check will be for 14 million dollars, which in 2022 will be slightly more than a utility player will receive.

lol your takes in this thread are straight up comical. This extension is not the end of the world, and the Sox will be just fine.  But there is a legitimate scenario where Jose regresses to a replacement level player in 21-22 who we are paying $17M AAV.  Its just unnecessary, and based on how this team has operated in the Jerry Reinsdorf era, it is fair to suspect this could cause the Sox to cut corners in other spots on the roster when it should be competing for championships because we decided to reward a guy with a $50M deal he didn't deserve. 

Again, this isn't franchise crippling, but it is also stupid and unnecessary.  If Reinsdorf has Ok'd payrolls approaching $175M in 2021 and beyond, then no big deal, but I'll believe that when I see it.  

[Lillian]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Would you like to put a wager on the White Sox never once complaining that they're poor in any way, shape, or form over the length of this contract, or using that as an excuse for why they couldn't sign someone else? (How would we extend our next core if we signed someone to a guarantee for 2027/2028? Can't spend a dollar when you only have whatever?) 

We should make a distinction between the front office using it "as an excuse," and it actually being a significant factor, impeding their ability to make any of those financial commitments. If they are looking for an excuse, they will find something. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

lol your takes in this thread are straight up comical. This extension is not the end of the world, and the Sox will be just fine.  But there is a legitimate scenario where Jose regresses to a replacement level player in 21-22 who we are paying $17M AAV.  Its just unnecessary, and based on how this team has operated in the Jerry Reinsdorf era, it is fair to suspect this could cause the Sox to cut corners in other spots on the roster when it should be competing for championships because we decided to reward a guy with a $50M deal he didn't deserve. 

Again, this isn't franchise crippling, but it is also stupid and unnecessary.  If Reinsdorf has Ok'd payrolls approaching $175M in 2021 and beyond, then no big deal, but I'll believe that when I see it.  

My takes that it's a slight overpay.

Stop citing that its possible he regresses and is replacement level. That's possible of every single age 32 FA. My goodness. It was possible of JD Martinez as well.

All you can do is analyze the deal based on projections we do have. Every FA has a floor variance that would suck. The point I have made 1000 times is if the worst sunken cost/lost dollars this team experiences in FA is the 14 million dollars to Jose Abreu then that's a hell of a free agency track record and we should be happy as hell. 

I've never called it a good signing. Ive merely stated that it does not have some inordinate amount of risk attached to it differently than other free agent contracts and the floor on it ie certainly palatable and not terribly damaging. Therefore, it's not a big problem and doesnt warrant to countless overreactions on this forum.

[Saufley]

3 hours ago, Chisox378 said:

White Sox being loyal again. After further review, I change my mind on this one.  What better than to have a player stay with the same team for 9 years of his pro career.  The key is, lets hope he can continue to be Jose Abreu. If so, even better.  Remember, it went Frank Thomas, Paul Konerko, and now Jose Abreu as faces of this franchise. The next couple of years we will see who takes the baton as face of this franchise but for now its Jose Abreu. And no better man and person is fit for this job right now. Lets bring home a championship Jose!

You're right. He's here so may as well accept it. Grandal was a nice surprise and Jose is OK too. Looking forward to the next move.

[poppysox]

A slight overpay for a loyal soldier who shows up for work every day.  This is the AL rbi champ...not some NL has been.  Lets move on.

[Soxnfins]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But he got 3/$50M ?‍♂️ 

All intents and purposes it was a 2/28 extension. 

[Saufley]

1 hour ago, Soxfest said:

Absolutely if Hahn thinks signing Abreu with no other big moves going forward makes fans happy, he is nuts.

In my wildest dreams I can't imagine that being the plan. After the Grandal signing I can't believe how positive I am about this off season compared to last year.

[wegner]

3 minutes ago, Saufley said:

In my wildest dreams I can't imagine that being the plan. After the Grandal signing I can't believe how positive I am about this off season compared to last year.

I totally agree with you.  Are the Sox really going to put out there how they discussed the pitchers available with Grandal and then not pursue any of them?  Pitching is coming.

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

lol your takes in this thread are straight up comical. This extension is not the end of the world, and the Sox will be just fine.  But there is a legitimate scenario where Jose regresses to a replacement level player in 21-22 who we are paying $17M AAV.  Its just unnecessary, and based on how this team has operated in the Jerry Reinsdorf era, it is fair to suspect this could cause the Sox to cut corners in other spots on the roster when it should be competing for championships because we decided to reward a guy with a $50M deal he didn't deserve. 

Again, this isn't franchise crippling, but it is also stupid and unnecessary.  If Reinsdorf has Ok'd payrolls approaching $175M in 2021 and beyond, then no big deal, but I'll believe that when I see it.  

Thank you.

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My takes that it's a slight overpay.

Stop citing that its possible he regresses and is replacement level. That's possible of every single age 32 FA. My goodness. It was possible of JD Martinez as well.

All you can do is analyze the deal based on projections we do have. Every FA has a floor variance that would suck. The point I have made 1000 times is if the worst sunken cost/lost dollars this team experiences in FA is the 14 million dollars to Jose Abreu then that's a hell of a free agency track record and we should be happy as hell. 

I've never called it a good signing. Ive merely stated that it does not have some inordinate amount of risk attached to it differently than other free agent contracts and the floor on it ie certainly palatable and not terribly damaging. Therefore, it's not a big problem and doesnt warrant to countless overreactions on this forum.

Then you stop ignoring the fact that this was completely unnecessary.  $14M is not nothing.  There is no fucking way that in 2 years time $14M is going to be the going rate for a utility infielder, as you have suggested at least once in this thread.  Completely discounting the $4M in deferrals is also silly.  $14M would have been good for 2nd highest paid player on the 2019 team besides...Jose Abreu.  Its not nothing.  No it is not franchise crippling, but it is $14M less to spend on that team, and one less roster spot to work with.  It also really limits the Sox ability to add guys this offseason and next that will need to be DHs in the near future - Castellanos, Ozuna, trading for Martinez, etc.  Frankly I don't want any of those guys, so I am personally not worried about it, but this move does without a doubt limit their options.  

I don't really see anybody having "countless overreactions" - some well informed posters find it to be stupid and unnecessary - which it is.  There is no need for you to respond to each post saying its no big deal. 

[BackDoorBreach]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Then you stop ignoring the fact that this was completely unnecessary.  $14M is not nothing.  There is no fucking way that in 2 years time $14M is going to be the going rate for a utility infielder, as you have suggested at least once in this thread.  Completely discounting the $4M in deferrals is also silly.  $14M would have been good for 2nd highest paid player on the 2019 team besides...Jose Abreu.  Its not nothing.  No it is not franchise crippling, but it is $14M less to spend on that team, and one less roster spot to work with.  It also really limits the Sox ability to add guys this offseason and next that will need to be DHs in the near future - Castellanos, Ozuna, trading for Martinez, etc.  Frankly I don't want any of those guys, so I am personally not worried about it, but this move does without a doubt limit their options.  

I don't really see anybody having "countless overreactions" - some well informed posters find it to be stupid and unnecessary - which it is.  There is no need for you to respond to each post saying its no big deal. 

For an orginization that is so risk adverse they really proved all the haters like me wrong. This is the definition of stupid money.

[GreenSox]

This one's hard to understand beyond the "Friends and family first" aspect.
The contract is well above market, he's not betting better, marginal in the field and we have DH types who should be near ready plus a top prospect 1B.  

I certainly  hope this  doesn't mean that Hahn start will start trading off his prospects again.  That always = disaster.

[BamaDoc]

Grandal indicated they discussed a plan and pitchers. Pretty sure it was not “we are getting you and doing nothing else “!

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

For an orginization that is so risk adverse they really proved all the haters like me wrong. This is the definition of stupid money.

Same ownership group gave Jabari Parker 40 million :-)

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Can someone explain to me why Grandal and Abreu’s bWAR numbers were nearly identical last season but there is such a large disparity in their fWAR numbers?

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Can someone explain to me why Grandal and Abreu’s bWAR numbers were nearly identical last season but there is such a large disparity in their fWAR numbers?

My understanding is that, in short, fWAR includes catching defensive statistics including framing, bWAR does not.  

fWAR is just the far superior resource, IMO, but it is a fair question no doubt. 

Edited November 22, 2019 by ChiSox59
fixed typo

[Vote4Pedro]

Meh.....it’s whatever, the only way I get mad at this is if this is Hahn’s idea of the money will be spent....

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Then you stop ignoring the fact that this was completely unnecessary.  $14M is not nothing.  There is no fucking way that in 2 years time $14M is going to be the going rate for a utility infielder, as you have suggested at least once in this thread.  Completely discounting the $4M in deferrals is also silly.  $14M would have been good for 2nd highest paid player on the 2019 team besides...Jose Abreu.  Its not nothing.  No it is not franchise crippling, but it is $14M less to spend on that team, and one less roster spot to work with.  It also really limits the Sox ability to add guys this offseason and next that will need to be DHs in the near future - Castellanos, Ozuna, trading for Martinez, etc.  Frankly I don't want any of those guys, so I am personally not worried about it, but this move does without a doubt limit their options.  

I don't really see anybody having "countless overreactions" - some well informed posters find it to be stupid and unnecessary - which it is.  There is no need for you to respond to each post saying its no big deal. 

POTY