Abreu Signs 3/$50M Extension

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

^^ Ray gets that it's pretty much a 2/28M extension due to the $4M in deferred & $5M signing bonus.

Ding ding ding. I've posted this 100 times.

A 2 year, 28 million dollar extension is whatever. People getting up in arms about it makes no sense. Who cares? Fucking 2 years and 28 million. In 2022 that will buy you a utility player.

The risk on that deal is so minimal. 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Soxnfins]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Ding ding ding. I've posted this 100 times.

A 2 year, 28 million dollar extension is whatever. People getting up in arms about it makes no sense.

The risk on that deal is so minimal. 

Yessir.  And that's about what I predicted for him as well, 2/26-28 or 3/38.  Besides, Abreu has the "Konerko" lifetime contract now.  He's never leaving the Sox.

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Ding ding ding. I've posted this 100 times.

A 2 year, 28 million dollar extension is whatever. People getting up in arms about it makes no sense. Who cares? Fucking 2 years and 28 million. In 2022 that will buy you a utility player.

The risk on that deal is so minimal. 

There is very good chance that it's not the money that fucks the Sox it's fielding a replacement level DH in what should be a contending year.  The Sox are not going to DFA Jose Abreu even if he's hitting 180/220/400 in late July 2022.  And it very well could cost them a pennant, playoff birth, or even WS title.

So it's not just the money it's opportunity cost and a roster spot.

When your best defense of this deal is "well it probably won't matter" you should re-evaluate your position.

Edited November 22, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If they don’t sign Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel or even Hamels...and this is (indirectly) given as part of the excuse, that’s where a lot of posters are going to have a problem.

And there’s the whole issue of (needlessly) blocking Vaughn at 1B OR him DHing and preventing Grandal from getting at-bats there to keep him as well rested as possible in the second half of seasons (especially during July/August Chicago weather.)

You really think they’re that dumb where they didn’t budget out what a high-end starter will cost them?  You’re just making up scenarios that are worst-case.

[pcq]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's not 18 million for the 10000000000000th time. No matter how many times people post it to be critical, the White Sox are paying Jose Abreu 14 million dollars in 2022. If 14 million dollars at DH is going to impact their ability to contend then they never stood a chance. 

If a 14 million dollar sunken cost is the WORST thing that happens to this team in FA over the next 5 years, then holy cow they did an incredible job.

Jose has value to the owner who feels like paying him that amount. I would rather worry about RF.

[caulfield12]

“Under terms of the deal, the All-Star first baseman will receive a $5 million signing bonus, $11 million in 2020, $16 million in 2021 and $18 million in 2022 with $4 million deferred. Abreu accepted the $17.8 million qualifying offer last week from the White Sox.”

 

It still amounts to an average of $15 million in 21-22 and $4 million deferred that would have been going to the bench or a veteran RH reliever.

And we still haven’t mentioned the very real need in 2021 to replace the back end of the bullpen again.

Sure, Colome’s deal will be gone...but going back into FA if we can’t come up with an internal option means another $3-5 million in spending on top of what we were paying him for an “elite/lockdown” reliever in what HAS TO BE a contending season..

I guess the spin will be that this money comes from Colome/Herrera departing...but still have a feeling we will be needing that $15 million to address an even more pressing need that’s completely unanticipated.
 

 

[BFirebird]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

You really think they’re that dumb where they didn’t budget out what a high-end starter will cost them?  You’re just making up scenarios that are worst-case.

I agree....Abreu's contract dollar amount will be a non-factor in whether they are signing a SP.  What they did with the deferred money and signing bonus insures that.  Worst case scenario is that we NEED Abreu in 3 years because both Collins & Vaughn suck.  Best case scenario is he is an expensive bench piece, that while redundant the Cubs won a WS with a third backup catcher BEFORE we had 26 man rosters.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

A contending White Sox team will not roll out a DH opsing 620 given they have a better option. 

What I find hilarious about this is everyone says he'll regress with age - you said look at Steamer. Steamer works in an aging curve. He could continue downward, sure. But how does losing a bit year to year get you to a 620 ops in year 3?

You cite these made up slash lines from air to support this claim that it was a horrible signing. You never wanted Abreu back in the first place. That's a fair opinion, and one you can state and support that but don't say look at steamer and then discard the fact that the system you wanted to use project this to be a net 1 WAR loss by using some fictitious slash line.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, fathom said:

You really think they’re that dumb where they didn’t budget out what a high-end starter will cost them?  You’re just making up scenarios that are worst-case.

If we sign Keuchel or Hamels instead of those top three...will you consider the offseason a complete success, assuming a band-aid RF, no DH move like EE (other than current roster) and one more random RH veteran reliever?

And, as to your point, they budgeted everything out with Machado last year, did they not?  

In the end, wasn’t it concern about lack of financial flexibility and/or player performance decline over that last $100 million that destroyed the deal?

We can argue the positives with Moncada ensconced there at third now, but nobody knew that this time last year...so somehow the spin has become that it worked out brilliantly to completely screw up a negotiation or not pursue Harper as well.

Edited November 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[jasonxctf]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

Great role model? Did he teach them the technique to fitting two cans of dip into your mouth at once?

Possibly. But I was thinking more along the lines of playing hard, staying out of trouble, being good with the media, respecting the game. Keeping some of them from potentially going down the Yasail Puig road. 

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A contending White Sox team will not roll out a DH opsing 620 given they have a better option. 

What I find hilarious about this is everyone says he'll regress with age - you said look at Steamer. Steamer works in an aging curve. He could continue downward, sure. But how does losing a bit year to year get you to a 620 ops in year 3?

You cite these made up slash lines from air to support this claim that it was a horrible signing. You never wanted Abreu back in the first place. That's a fair opinion, and one you can state and support that but don't say look at steamer and then discard the fact that the system you wanted to use project this to be a net 1 WAR loss by using some fictitious slash line.

I'm using abstractions and conditions in arguing future events which granted some people struggle to comprehend.   There is a non zero chance a 35 year old Jose Abreu is replacement level in 2022.  I'm not arguing there is a 100% chance.  I'm arguing there is a chance.  Probably about 1/3 given historical aging curves for similar players.  Given that the club has never, ever shown a willingness to cut bait on "franchise favs" historically it's a very real hypothetical situation that they will be stuck with a bad player they won't move on from.

You  misrepresented my position on Jose as I was quite happy when he accepted the QO.  The risk isn't the AAV it's the years.  Amazingly they didn't even manage to lower the AAV and handed out the years.  It's an irrational baseball move you can't defend on baseball terms and everybody in this thread knows it was an order on high from JR to lock this guy up and have him retire a Sox.  

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

There is very good chance that it's not the money that fucks the Sox it's fielding a replacement level DH in what should be a contending year.  The Sox are not going to DFA Jose Abreu even if he's hitting 180/220/400 in late July 2022.  And it very well could cost them a pennant, playoff birth, or even WS title.

So it's not just the money it's opportunity cost and a roster spot.

When your best defense of this deal is "well it probably won't matter" you should re-evaluate your position.

I'm not defending the deal.

Again, I'm saying it's a slight overpay but it doesn't matter. That is my position and theres really no real risk/downside.

People acting like the sky is falling are the people I disagree with.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

I don't expect Abreu's contribution to be literally 0 for what it's worth. 

I’m not suggesting he will be worthless either, but given his age and recent performance it doesn’t that take that much fall-off in order for him to be replacement level.  Again, I’m not up in arms about this because I can appreciate rewarding a good soldier to a certain extent, but I truly feel extending him through 2021 at $36M total would have done just that.  Going three years guaranteed just seems over the top to me and reflects way too emotional decision making.

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, Soxfest said:

Sox outbid only themselves to sign Abreu. JR loyalty 101 strikes yet again.

Everyone here acted directly in character.  I don't get why it is surprising.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm using abstractions and conditions in arguing future events which granted some people struggle to comprehend.   There is a non zero chance a 35 year old Jose Abreu is replacement level in 2022.  I'm not arguing there is a 100% chance.  I'm arguing there is a chance.  Probably about 1/3 given historical aging curves for similar players.  Given that the club has never, ever shown a willingness to cut bait on "franchise favs" historically it's a very real hypothetical situation that they will be stuck with a bad player they won't move on from.

You  misrepresented my position on Jose as I was quite happy when he accepted the QO.  The risk isn't the AAV it's the years.  Amazingly they didn't even manage to lower the AAV and handed out the years.  It's an irrational baseball move you can't defend on baseball terms and everybody in this thread knows it was an order on high from JR to lock this guy up and have him retire a Sox.  

 

Who have the White Sox not cutbait on?

What star player did they continue to role out for the reason you're claiming above during the middle of contending. What support do you have for that claim? 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

We won't have to spend on a DH in 2022, because Jose will fill that spot. 

If the argument is that perhaps someone like Collins could have filled that spot for much less money, then that is assuming Collins (or whoever else) takes off and is a productive DH. If that does happen, then that person becomes a great trade piece to help fill another hole, like an extra starting pitcher.

I just don't think it makes sense to say, "Well now we have $14M less to spend in 2022."  That is looking at things in a vacuum.

What I’m saying is if Jose falls off a cliff we have a massive hole at DH and $14M less to fill it.  If we’re forced to play him despite underperformance, that’s an even bigger problem.

[chitownsportsfan]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not defending the deal.

Again, I'm saying it's a slight overpay but it doesn't matter. That is my position and theres really no real risk/downside.

People acting like the sky is falling are the people I disagree with.

Thanks for the debate strong opinions make good message board posters.  I just bust your chops 'cause I respect you as a poster, apathy is what I reserve for gre...others.

Edited November 22, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not defending the deal.

Again, I'm saying it's a slight overpay but it doesn't matter. That is my position and theres really no real risk/downside.

People acting like the sky is falling are the people I disagree with.

As long as the White Sox are willing to go from $100 to $115 million on Wheeler for five years, no problemo.

The issue for the White Sox has always been adding those extra years on at the back end...especially with pitchers.

Grandal got one more year than most would have ideally preferred, and Abreu did as well...if not two.  

Fine, maybe that’s actually a positive sign they’re changing the way they do business, although Abreu will always be the JR/Konerko Favored Son Special if this goes sideways.

 

As long as they don’t stop now and start blanching at those extra years for FA pitchers...maybe it all actually works out in the end.

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Who have the White Sox not cutbait on?

What star player did they continue to role out for the reason you're claiming above during the middle of contending. What support do you have for that claim? 

Well....they would have trotted LaRoche out there again

[Saufley]

4 hours ago, hogan873 said:

I have no problem with this.  The guaranteed third year is a bit puzzling, but the money is not terrible.  I would say it's pretty certain now that he will end his career with the White Sox.

As long as the Sox continue to add the pieces that makes this team a contender I'm with it. Let's see what happens next. 

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Who have the White Sox not cutbait on?

What star player did they continue to role out for the reason you're claiming above during the middle of contending. What support do you have for that claim? 

Danks...Konerko...Jose Contreras after 2006.  Dunn.  LaRoche.  Melky Cabrera.   Alex Rios.  Herrera will still get way too many chances next year.  Welington Castillo.  ETC.

And this always happens with the White Sox.

Edited November 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Thanks for the debate strong opinions make good message board posters.  I just bust your chops 'cause I respect you as a poster, apathy is what I reserve for gre...others.

Agree and never any hard feelings. I enjoy hearing other views - as long as they're not "Anthony Benetendi would be the best hitter on the White Sox." 

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Danks...Konerko...Jose Contreras after 2006.  Dunn.  LaRoche.  Melky Cabrera.   Alex Rios.  Herrera will still get way too many chances next year.  Welington Castillo.  ETC.

And this always happens with the White Sox.

The list is long.  

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Cubs were handcuffed because of the luxury tax cap. Sox clearly don’t have to worry about that.

The luxury tax is simply their payroll ceiling and they were handcuffed because of all the dead weight on their books.  That logic applies to all teams, the difference is our payroll ceiling is much lower so any dead weight will have a far greater impacts on us.

[SoxBlanco]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What I’m saying is if Jose falls off a cliff we have a massive hole at DH and $14M less to fill it.  If we’re forced to play him despite underperformance, that’s an even bigger problem.

Can’t argue with that. I agree. And that’s why I preferred to go year by year with him. 

But I am excited to see what he can do with some protection in the lineup. And who knows...maybe he can become more patient with Menechino and Grandal on board.