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Abreu Signs 3/$50M Extension


BigHurt3515

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

That includes Yolmer, and think it is a bit high regardless.  Saw that referenced somewhere today on twitter or mlbtr, and it seems high. 

I believe is $82-84M range without Yolmer. 

Adding Wheeler (20yr) and Castellanos (16-17yr) for example still has us around 130.  I just have no idea where they are projecting payroll to be.  

They still have to add at least 1 pen arm and another SP I'd think on top of that.

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49 minutes ago, wegner said:

I totally agree with you.  Are the Sox really going to put out there how they discussed the pitchers available with Grandal and then not pursue any of them?  Pitching is coming.

I want Wheeler but not ruling out Cole until RH says we are out.  They mean business this year.  We have as much financial flexibility as anyone.

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Just now, BackDoorBreach said:

Adding Wheeler (20yr) and Castellanos (16-17yr) for example still has us around 130.  I just have no idea where they are projecting payroll to be.  

They still have to add at least 1 pen arm and another SP I'd think on top of that.

Castellanos is absolutely 100% not a realistic fit at this point with the Abreu news.  Unless they plan to trade Vaughn for pitching and decide to have the worst defense in the league for the next handful of seasons. You could hide Castellanos and Eloy in the same outfield for a season that was always a pipedream to be a playoff year anyway.  You can't do it for three. 

But yes...assume we're at $83. Plus $10M for RF, $20M for Wheeler, and $10M for 1 year stopgap SP you're at $123-125M range.  A meh pen man and platoon/bench piece and  you're at $133-135M range.  That is about as good as we can hope for in 2020, IMO. 

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5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Castellanos is absolutely 100% not a realistic fit at this point with the Abreu news.  Unless they plan to trade Vaughn for pitching and decide to have the worst defense in the league for the next handful of seasons. You could hide Castellanos and Eloy in the same outfield for a season that was always a pipedream to be a playoff year anyway.  You can't do it for three. 

But yes...assume we're at $83. Plus $10M for RF, $20M for Wheeler, and $10M for 1 year stopgap SP you're at $123-125M range.  A meh pen man and platoon/bench piece and  you're at $133-135M range.  That is about as good as we can hope for in 2020, IMO. 

I'm starting to think the Sox feel that by defualt, one of  Adolfo, Basabe, Rutherford, Gonzalez or  Walker is going to end up breaking thru here very quickly.  They'll be shopping for a one year stop gap for RF.   I'm 100% fine with this as long as we land one of the those top 4 FA SPs.  

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8 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

I'm starting to think the Sox feel that by defualt, one of  Adolfo, Basabe, Rutherford, Gonzalez or  Walker is going to end up breaking thru here very quickly.  They'll be shopping for a one year stop gap for RF.   I'm 100% fine with this as long as we land one of the those top 4 FA SPs.  

Yah, I mean - there aren't any great, frankly even good FA options this offseason.  That is very different next offseason.  I have little hope for Rutherford, Basabe or Gonzalez, but I do think Adolfo could blow up this year if the guy could just stay on the field.  Walker a little further away.  I don't mind giving Adolfo a year and if it doesn't work out, Mookie, Springer, Joc and Brantley all FA next offseason, and can always make a trade.  David Peralta is my hope for 2020, if the longer term options like Nimmo cost too much.   

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Paul Konerko had the best offensive season of his career at age 34. And his 4th best season at age 35. With better hitters around him, why couldn't Abreu perform well over the next couple of years? 

That leaves his third season as the biggest question of this deal. But is it really crippling for the Sox? I live just outside DC and watched the Nationals win the World Series. Ryan Zimmerman was overpaid for the last several years, but the Nats don't win the World Series without him. 

Abreu is the glue not just for the Cubans, but probably for all the Latin players on the team.  A team is more than just stats.

I'm not thrilled by this, but I'm also not of the opinion that it stinks, or handcuffs the Sox. Abreu is still an asset -- there are plenty of guys we've had the last few years who haven't been -- so the more assets, generally the better off the team is. 

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, I mean - there aren't any great, frankly even good FA options this offseason.  That is very different next offseason.  I have little hope for Rutherford, Basabe or Gonzalez, but I do think Adolfo could blow up this year if the guy could just stay on the field.  Walker a little further away.  I don't mind giving Adolfo a year and if it doesn't work out, Mookie, Springer, Joc and Brantley all FA next offseason, and can always make a trade.  David Peralta is my hope for 2020, if Nimmo costs too much.   

I'd love to kick the tires on a Joc Pederson trade again.  If the price tag last year as rumored was Bummer (before his surprising breakout) + Bush,  it should take less to get him this year in a walk year.  

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2 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

I'd love to kick the tires on a Joc Pederson trade again.  If the price tag last year as rumored was Bummer (before his surprising breakout) + Bush,  it should take less to get him this year in a walk year.  

Pederson is still my favorite name so far.  Like you...wouldn't overpay to get him but don't expect the price to be silly.

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4 hours ago, SoxAce said:

We'll see. Ricky is very much a players coach and he certainly has his guys "Abreu is definitely one of them". I can just see him playing more 1B than he should regardless if Vaughn is around. 

I think once we start succeeding on the field Jose will understand. He loves the culture and vibe with this organization and most likely won't want to make any waves. But if he truly wants to play first base, he can force the team's hand by playing well. 

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People are acting as if the Sox repurposed the Machado contract and gave it to Abreu.

How in the world is this $50M going to even remotely cripple this organization over JUST the next three years, given the current payroll level and the cost-controlled nature of our future stars over that same timeframe?

Does this contract preclude us from pursuing the likes of Cole, Strasburg, and/or Rendon this offseason?  NO.

Does it automatically eliminate us from the Betts sweepstakes next year?  NO.

Year three?  Oh, maybe, I guess, but that would probably be only likely if we actually signed one of those aforementioned whales.

Wake me up when the team payroll actually gets close to the league MEDIAN payroll before whining about the impact of this contract over the next three years.  

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13 minutes ago, Thad Bosley said:

People are acting as if the Sox repurposed the Machado contract and gave it to Abreu.

How in the world is this $50M going to even remotely cripple this organization over JUST the next three years, given the current payroll level and the cost-controlled nature of our future stars over that same timeframe?

Does this contract preclude us from pursuing the likes of Cole, Strasburg, and/or Rendon this offseason?  NO.

Does it automatically eliminate us from the Betts sweepstakes next year?  NO.

Year three?  Oh, maybe, I guess, but that would probably be only likely if we actually signed one of those aforementioned whales.

Wake me up when the team payroll actually gets close to the league MEDIAN payroll before whining about the impact of this contract over the next three years.  

What happened to the real Thad?

After they sign Wheeler for $100-115 million and sign Betts for $350 million, even if it backfires spectacularly, everyone will be placated.

Of course, if they both implode, it will be the biggest setback since the Black Flag Trade, Sportsvision or the 1919 BlackSox.

Hahn/KW will both be gone and the franchise likely sold for a huge profit.

But the odds of Cole, Strasburg and Rendon signing (any of them) are so small as to be almost negligible...since at least one if nothing both will stay with Washington, we don’t need a 3B and Cole will go to CA or NY.  

 

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52 minutes ago, VAfan said:

Paul Konerko had the best offensive season of his career at age 34. And his 4th best season at age 35. With better hitters around him, why couldn't Abreu perform well over the next couple of years? 

That leaves his third season as the biggest question of this deal. But is it really crippling for the Sox? I live just outside DC and watched the Nationals win the World Series. Ryan Zimmerman was overpaid for the last several years, but the Nats don't win the World Series without him. 

Abreu is the glue not just for the Cubans, but probably for all the Latin players on the team.  A team is more than just stats.

I'm not thrilled by this, but I'm also not of the opinion that it stinks, or handcuffs the Sox. Abreu is still an asset -- there are plenty of guys we've had the last few years who haven't been -- so the more assets, generally the better off the team is. 

Zimmerman actually a decent comp and example. Abreu probably been more consistent up to this age too.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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22 minutes ago, Thad Bosley said:

People are acting as if the Sox repurposed the Machado contract and gave it to Abreu.

How in the world is this $50M going to even remotely cripple this organization over JUST the next three years, given the current payroll level and the cost-controlled nature of our future stars over that same timeframe?

Does this contract preclude us from pursuing the likes of Cole, Strasburg, and/or Rendon this offseason?  NO.

Does it automatically eliminate us from the Betts sweepstakes next year?  NO.

Year three?  Oh, maybe, I guess, but that would probably be only likely if we actually signed one of those aforementioned whales.

Wake me up when the team payroll actually gets close to the league MEDIAN payroll before whining about the impact of this contract over the next three years.  

None of this is the point of why people like me think this was a shit move.  We are locking Abreu into our future DH when we did not need to at all.  If he declines at the plate he has 0 value and was just given a 3 year extension.  That is a position that could have been upgraded in 2021.  Now we have to hope he doesn't decline hard or he's taking up a valuable roster spot for the next 3 years.

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1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

My understanding is that, in short, fWAR includes catching defensive statistics including framing, bWAR does not.  

fWAR is just the far superior resource, IMO, but it is a fair question no doubt. 

I'm not sure why you think the bottom.

I always say, for a pitcher bWAR is a better reflection of whet you did and fWAR is a better predictor of what you'll do going forward.

For position players the difference is tied mostly to the defensive metrics they use. When you see a big difference, due to fielding metrics volatility, your better off taking the average of the two imo. 

When it comes to catchers though, I'd agree I'd lean toward FG but I'd also argue that framing is overvalued by BP and FG. I just think they deserve the edge for valuing it at all vs BR.

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3 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

After Abreu moves to DH, his defensive liabilities will no longer take away from WAR. Assuming the last half of his contract is almost entirely played at DH, is it much of a stretch to get to 6 total WAR?

Agree but Eloy is still out in LF and by 21 or 22 it may turn out he needs to DH. If he progresses in the field then no problem. But what happens if he gets worse?

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18 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

None of this is the point of why people like me think this was a shit move.  We are locking Abreu into our future DH when we did not need to at all.  If he declines at the plate he has 0 value and was just given a 3 year extension.  That is a position that could have been upgraded in 2021.  Now we have to hope he doesn't decline hard or he's taking up a valuable roster spot for the next 3 years.

We locked in the guy who just drove in more runs than anyone in Major League Baseball this year, save one, for a mere three years, as our future DH, for years 33-35 of his life.  Not years 35-38, or anything like that.  All of this “falling of the cliff” nonsense is just that - nonsense - until he gives indication of that offensively.

Will the Sox potentially overpay for his production over the next three years?  Yeah, maybe.  But certainly not enough for anyone to get their undies in a bunch over.  
 

And again, what are the comps for a player like Abreu who “declines hard” or “falls off a cliff” at his age?   


 

 

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