Zack Wheeler: To the Phils (5yr 118); Sox had made BIGGER offer

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I've seen you post the bolded before and I know there is no way that is true for MLB Pitchers.  I've read before it's around 9 years on average.  There is NO WAY that 4.5 years is the average life span of a literal brand new UCL for an MLB Pitcher.

 

Wheeler has had TJ one time, I saw some people having questions about it.

Ask PTAC.   The success rate for second is roughly 60%, close to 80% for first.    You have to consider all the pitchers that are not well known... just like the average NFL career is something like 2.8 years.   Of course there are exceptions.   I'd have to look up an article I quoted from the last two years written by researchers with one of the sports representation agencies. 

Think of all the pitchers who don't change mechanics or have other major injuries due to changes that put more stress on the shoulder or labrum or forearm.    If the average was 8-9 years before second TJ... we'd all be having zero worries about Wheeler getting a 5-6 year deal.   But that's definitely not the case here. 

Edited December 2, 2019 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I've seen you post the bolded before and I know there is no way that is true for MLB Pitchers.  I've read before it's around 9 years on average.  There is NO WAY that 4.5 years is the average life span of a literal brand new UCL for an MLB Pitcher.

 

Wheeler has had TJ one time, I saw some people having questions about it.

It can’t be true.  At a very minimum, he must be ignoring the vast majority of pitchers that never have TJS twice.  No idea how you could follow baseball and believe on average a new UCL will only last 4.5 years.  A huge chunk of the league would already be on their second surgery when that clearly isn’t the case.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I dont know how anyone who follows baseball closely would post those numbers without questioning it.

Here's the an FAQ of TJS on MLB.com

How often do pitchers suffer another arm injury after having Tommy John surgery?

"...Another recent study from the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) concluded that 19% of Tommy John patients will have a subsequent elbow surgery and 25% will have shoulder surgery."

Can someone have Tommy John surgery twice?

"Yes. There have been several studies recently on pitchers who have to undergo a second Tommy John surgery, often called a UCL Revision. Although still relatively uncommon, there seems to be an increase in the number of revisions over the past five years. Previous studies have shown only 2-4 percent of pitchers had revisions but more recent studies indicate an increase in that rate to 10-12 percent in Major League pitchers..."

It would have been more believable if the average duration until the 2nd TJS is 4.5 years for those that actually required a revision. Also to put it in context, since the success rate of TJS in recent years is close to 80%, you're still more likely to have a failed first TJS than to require a revision surgery.

[caulfield12]

The problem is I actually remembered it incorrectly...but the years were basically accurate.

It wasn’t that all TJ pitchers on average only last 4.5 years before second surgery/revision...it was that for those who do need a second surgery, the average time from 1st to second procedure is/was 4 years.  Yet the current risk on Wheeler seems more than “de minimus,” because Boras is making the best possible case for his client, Strasburg.  Wheeler took 2 1/2 years to return, experiencing setbacks in 2016 and 2017 and not being 100% until Years 3&4 after TJ.  And he’s only 5 years out from surgery (as of next Spring Training), so still in the “danger zone,” relatively speaking (not to quote Kenny Loggins.)

 

Strasburg is coming off a 2019 campaign in which he threw a career-high 245 ¹⁄₃ innings in the regular season and postseason combined, and he is nine years removed from Tommy John surgery now, Rosenthal noted, and, “... the odds of a pitcher requiring a second TJ are not particularly high, according to a study published by the Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery in 2018.”

The average time for a pitcher who needs a second Tommy John surgery is four years after the first procedure, according to their data, and Strasburg is now well beyond that window.

Also working in Strasburg’s favor? 

The fact that his fastball velocity isn’t quite what it used to be (94 MPH+ AVG in 2019 on his four-seamer and sinker) and he’s throwing fastballs significantly less than he used to (a career-low 48.3% of the time in 2019), while focusing more on his offspeed offerings this season (30.6% curveballs and 20.7% changeups, both career highs, percentage-wise). 

As Rosenthal writes, Strasburg has gone nine years on his new UCL while lowering, “his risk factors along the way.” 

“Those risk factors, according to several studies, include peak velocity over 95.7 mph, mean (average) velocity over 91 mph and a fastball usage of more than 47 percent.”

With career lows in peak velocity (Strasburg maxed out at 96.9 on his four-seam and sinker this season), and average velocity, the right-hander is trending in the right direction, and his decreased fastball usage is a positive as well.

And the need for a second procedure among “established major league pitchers” or “elite” starting pitchers, as Boras told Rosenthal, is less than 2%.

“The data is clear: A TJ revision for elite starters (175 or more major-league starts) is a de minimis issue,” Boras said. 

“You have a much greater chance of getting hit in the head with a line drive.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/washington-nationals-rumors-will-stephen-strasburg-quickly-return-to-dc-this-winter/ar-BBXd2PU

 

Edited December 2, 2019 by caulfield12

[Two-Gun Pete]

7 hours ago, hi8is said:

The panel on MLB Network guesser Wheeler going to New York Yankees, Phillies, or Twins.

No one mentioned the Sox.

#StealthMode

I actually view it differently than you. I dont think they're in stealth mode at all.

 

I think the longer this goes, the worse our chances are with Wheeler. I think some other team either outbid us, or this team dithers about while another team swoops in to land Wheeler. I think Jerry, et. Al still have the fear of longer-term pitching contracts.

 

I really hope I'm wrong, and Wheeler is in our rotation in 2020. Prove me wrong, Jerry.

[Kyyle23]

Pro tip: when arguing online, larger font always wins.   Bolded is just the cherry W on top 

[Orlando]

After much thought, I would love the Sox to call up Pittsburgh and work out a trade for Marte and Archer. 

[Kyyle23]

Also want to say that argument is worded weird. They are saying that the average time for a second surgery/revision is 4 1/2 years but also saying that because Strasburg is past that time frame he is in the clear. 
 

so it isn't necessarily that a most guys blow out their arm in 4 1/2 years and need another UCL, but that there is a window when players need another surgery and once you are past it, you are good.  Who knows though.  You would think that Tommy Johns were done on everyone at every level all the time if it was that small of a timeframe

[caulfield12]

19 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Pro tip: when arguing online, larger font always wins.   Bolded is just the cherry W on top 

Amateur tip:  that’s the font size that SoxTalk is set on as a default when you copy and paste from an article using an IPad.

Certainly there’s a way to set it at a smaller size.  So what should the official size be that will be considered not too small and not too large.

And I wasn’t trying to win any argument...I was explicating in the clearest terms possible, or rather the article was (and even it’s worded somewhat confusingly, as you admit in the very next post.)

 

But thanks to The Bolded Police...err...Hooded Justice, greater Tulsa and now SoxTalk is now liberated from the tyranny...of someone taking the time to highlight the most salient points for other readers.  Long live Dr. Manhattan.

Edited December 2, 2019 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Amateur tip:  that’s the font size that SoxTalk is set on as a default when you copy and paste from an article using an IPad.

Certainly there’s a way to set it at a smaller size.  So what should the official size be that will be considered not too small and not too large.

And I wasn’t trying to win any argument...I was explicating in the clearest terms possible, or rather the article was (and even it’s worded somewhat confusingly, as you admit in the very next post.)

 

But thanks to The Bolded Police...err...Hooded Justice, greater Tulsa and now SoxTalk is now liberated from the tyranny...of someone taking the time to highlight the most salient points for other readers.  Long live Dr. Manhattan.

When you paste text, there is always for me an option that comes up at the bottom of the text box that says something like "Pasted as rich text. Use plain text instead?" Clicking the plain text option removes the copied formatting. 

[Kyyle23]

25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Amateur tip:  that’s the font size that SoxTalk is set on as a default when you copy and paste from an article using an IPad.

Certainly there’s a way to set it at a smaller size.  So what should the official size be that will be considered not too small and not too large.

And I wasn’t trying to win any argument...I was explicating in the clearest terms possible, or rather the article was (and even it’s worded somewhat confusingly, as you admit in the very next post.)

 

But thanks to The Bolded Police...err...Hooded Justice, greater Tulsa and now SoxTalk is now liberated from the tyranny...of someone taking the time to highlight the most salient points for other readers.  Long live Dr. Manhattan.

You keep posting it as fact, which you just got called out on.  And what the fuck is that last paragraph 

[Quin]

11 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

You keep posting it as fact, which you just got called out on.  And what the fuck is that last paragraph 

What happens when you binge Watchmen then post.

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

When you paste text, there is always for me an option that comes up at the bottom of the text box that says something like "Pasted as rich text. Use plain text instead?" Clicking the plain text option removes the copied formatting. 

This. If the option isn't there, reload the page / make sure you're in mobile view.

[Dlsoxfan]

So with winter meeting right around corner, we should at least start hearing more rumors. (Real or not)

[HOFHurt35]

53 minutes ago, Orlando said:

After much thought, I would love the Sox to call up Pittsburgh and work out a trade for Marte and Archer. 

It would take a ton a to get that deal done, and quite frankly I don't think Archer is anything special. 

Pass.   Trading assets vs spending FA money is the old antiquated mentality we need to finally get away from. 

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

They can't rat hole these "assets" forever.  Not every minor leaguer is going to be an everyday big leaguer so getting value for the ones they don't see helping the big league club is a smart move.  They better move soon because some of them are depreciating quickly.  

[hi8is]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I actually view it differently than you. I dont think they're in stealth mode at all.

It was a joke.

[HOFHurt35]

3 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They can't rat hole these "assets" forever.  Not every minor leaguer is going to be an everyday big leaguer so getting value for the ones they don't see helping the big league club is a smart move.  They better move soon because some of them are depreciating quickly.  

The problem is the Sox are very top heavy (and limited) on guys who might have any trade appeal for actual elite major league talent. 

Trading of Marte or Betts will cost you one if not two of Robert, Madrigal, Kopech, Vaughn, or Cease.

I'm not willing to trade any of those guys.  

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Robert is the only one in that group I wouldn't trade.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Robert is the only one in that group I wouldn't trade.

Agreed and would have loved to see Madrigal dealt for a controllable, quality starting pitcher.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Agreed and would have loved to see Madrigal dealt for a controllable, quality starting pitcher.  

Why give up assets when you can buy those pieces for nothing but money when going young was supposed to open up your financial flexibility?

[SoxBlanco]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Why give up assets when you can buy those pieces for nothing but money when going young was supposed to open up your financial flexibility?

This. I wouldn't trade any of those five players.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Why give up assets when you can buy those pieces for nothing but money when going young was supposed to open up your financial flexibility?

Because the controllable starting pitcher would be a lot cheaper than overpaying for someone not quite as good, as opposed to what the cost would be to get a solid 2nd baseman (ie: Villar).

[Harold's Leg Lift]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Because the controllable starting pitcher would be a lot cheaper than overpaying for someone not quite as good, as opposed to what the cost would be to get a solid 2nd baseman (ie: Villar).

Bingo.  Finding a league avg 2B should not be difficult.  They just released one.  

[mqr]

Who is this controllable arm on the market? Cuz I’m not seeing one worth giving up actual assets for

[hi8is]

Manny, is that you?