Successful Plan B; What’s Next?

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

 

[BackDoorBreach]

4 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

 

I have no idea who that is but they don't have a choice, lol. 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

 

Will believe it when they don't end up with Tier C/D pitchers... the three best remaining "realistic" impact pitchers are going to be grossly overpaid and our legitimate prospect depth (expendable) in terms of position prospects after Collins and the five outfielders is non-existent. 

[Sleepy Harold]

2 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

 

Meh, lots of the "insiders" are throwing this out there now. I'm sure there's some ounce of truth to it, but I'm going to play the "show me the money" game until they do something. I don't care if they're more motivated, I care about them getting something done.

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

 

He’s more believable after ripping the Fake Steve Chiskek account.

[Soxnfins]

I honestly don’t think we will end up with anything more in FA. It will most likely come via trade. We fall short on Castellanos, and lowball Keuchel.... the only one that we could completely execute on (and possibly screw ourselves by doing) is Bumgarner. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Soxnfins said:

I honestly don’t think we will end up with anything more in FA. It will most likely come via trade. We fall short on Castellanos, and lowball Keuchel.... the only one that we could completely execute on (and possibly screw ourselves by doing) is Bumgarner. 

I will guarantee we either sign one of Ryu, Bumgarner, or Keuchel or we trade for a starter and then sign Castellanos.  We will definitely sign at least one back end guy like Wood or Gonzalez too.

[chetkincaid]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I will guarantee we either sign one of Ryu, Bumgarner, or Keuchel or we trade for a starter and then sign Castellanos.  We will definitely sign at least one back end guy like Wood or Gonzalez too.

I bet you $1 that we don’t sign Ryu and I’ll bet you $5 that Mad Bum doesn’t come here. As for Keuchel, the only reason we get him is that no one else will offer him anything close to what he’s asking for. 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

17 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

I honestly don’t think we will end up with anything more in FA. It will most likely come via trade. We fall short on Castellanos, and lowball Keuchel.... the only one that we could completely execute on (and possibly screw ourselves by doing) is Bumgarner. 

I think we'll see some more deals, but it won't be anything huge or significant. Sox don't have much to work with with trades. Literally half the prospect capital they have was hurt last year. Hard to make deals when everyone has suppressed value due to TJ.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, chetkincaid said:

I bet you $1 that we don’t sign Ryu and I’ll bet you $5 that Mad Bum doesn’t come here. As for Keuchel, the only reason we get him is that no one else will offer him anything close to what he’s asking for. 

Lol...we should call you Parkman Jr with all your pessimism.  The Sox didn’t sign Grandal and then offer 5/$125M to Wheeler only to turn around and sign no one.  I’d happily take your money if there was an actual way to collect my winnings.

[bmags]

I will genuinely be happy if they sign Ryu, cross my fingers we finally get lucky, and live to fight another offseason.

[NCsoxfan]

Unless the announcement comes from the White Sox account, I don’t give a crap what any inside on twitter says. It just sets you up for disappointment if things don’t turn out. 

[caulfield12]

What would everyone say are the current odds of the Sox still getting one of Ryu, Bumgarner or Keuchel?

We know the Twins (who already bid 5/$100 for Wheeler), Reds, Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, etc., are all looking for pitching.

Unfortunately, it's the consensus of everyone but Steve Stone that Bumgarner will be a bad contract.  Have seen a few arguing for Keuchel as well, but I can't see them paying him $18-20 million for 3-4 years.

Ryu seems like the biggest upside play, certainly with risk...but it will at least be in the $50-75 million range over 3-4 years instead of $120+.

That said, there's got to be 2-3 teams that are going to miss out on Cole/Strasburg all thinking the same exact thing.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

What would everyone say are the current odds of the Sox still getting one of Ryu, Bumgarner or Keuchel?

We know the Twins (who already bid 5/$100 for Wheeler), Reds, Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, etc., are all looking for pitching.

Unfortunately, it's the consensus of everyone but Steve Stone that Bumgarner will be a bad contract.  Have seen a few arguing for Keuchel as well, but I can't see them paying him $18-20 million for 3-4 years.

Ryu seems like the biggest upside play, certainly with risk...but it will at least be in the $50-75 million range over 3-4 years instead of $120+.

That said, there's got to be 2-3 teams that are going to miss out on Cole/Strasburg all thinking the same exact thing.

Out of the three, I think Keuchel is the most realistic to be signed. They supposedly had interest in him last offseason, so they may already have some rapport with him and his agent.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Ryu is the obvious next target imo. Huge upside without the $100+Mil commitment. I’d offer him 3/66 and see if there’s higher offers. 4 years is a tough pill to swallow with him, but I feel like the relatively low total commitment for a potential ace is too hard to pass up. Is 3/72 really all that crazy for Ryu?...if the doctors feel ok with his medicals of course. Is a 3/4 mil per year overpay really going to affect the Sox and their payroll situation? 

Edited December 6, 2019 by TheFutureIsNear

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

1 minute ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Ryu is the obvious next target imo. Huge upside without the $100+Mil commitment. I’d offer him 3/66 and see if there’s higher offers. 4 years is a tough pill to swallow with him, but I feel like the relatively low total commitment for a potential ace is too hard to pass up. Is 3/72 really all that crazy for Ryu?...if the doctors feel ok with his medicals of course. Is a 3/4 mil per year overpay really going to affect the Sox and their payroll situation? 

Personally I don't think it's worth it. You're asking an injury-plagued pitcher to stay healthy in his age 34 & 35 seasons when his presence on the team matters most. He's also not the most fit individual (#108thick) so I can't imagine he's going to age very well as he approaches his late-30's. If the Sox are going to dish out that much commitment to a start, I want him to at least be on the field for the majority of his contract.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

29 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

What would everyone say are the current odds of the Sox still getting one of Ryu, Bumgarner or Keuchel?

We know the Twins (who already bid 5/$100 for Wheeler), Reds, Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, etc., are all looking for pitching.

Unfortunately, it's the consensus of everyone but Steve Stone that Bumgarner will be a bad contract.  Have seen a few arguing for Keuchel as well, but I can't see them paying him $18-20 million for 3-4 years.

Ryu seems like the biggest upside play, certainly with risk...but it will at least be in the $50-75 million range over 3-4 years instead of $120+.

That said, there's got to be 2-3 teams that are going to miss out on Cole/Strasburg all thinking the same exact thing.

No idea. 2 Boras guys ( Ryu and Keuchel) 2 without a draft pick attached (Ryu and Keuchel ) Bumgarner might prefer the NL , Ryu decent chance he stays in California though he did bet on himself  and it worked out well  so I'd like to think he'll be open to any team.

[Good Guys]

22 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Out of the three, I think Keuchel is the most realistic to be signed. They supposedly had interest in him last offseason, so they may already have some rapport with him and his agent.

Scott Boras?  Yeah, the White Sox have plenty of rapport with him.

[TheFutureIsNear]

9 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Personally I don't think it's worth it. You're asking an injury-plagued pitcher to stay healthy in his age 34 & 35 seasons when his presence on the team matters most. He's also not the most fit individual (#108thick) so I can't imagine he's going to age very well as he approaches his late-30's. If the Sox are going to dish out that much commitment to a start, I want him to at least be on the field for the majority of his contract.

Gotta have some risk for the reward....Personally I’m not willing to forfeit potential for the perceived safeness of Bum/Keuchle. Those guys are going to come to the AL and be 3rd stater inning eater type. I’ll take the risk of Ryu being a 1/2.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

No idea. 2 Boras guys ( Ryu and Keuchel) 2 without a draft pick attached (Ryu and Keuchel ) Bumgarner might prefer the NL , Ryu decent chance he stays in California though he did bet on himself  and it worked out well  so I'd like to think he'll be open to any team.

He's also mentioned wanting to play with Choo in Texas as they open their new stadium, so LAD and TEX are the two co-favorites at this point in the proceedings.   In general, the California teams, Seattle and AZ/Colorado would be more attractive due to their proximity to S. Korea.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

 

20 minutes ago, Good Guys said:

Scott Boras?  Yeah, the White Sox have plenty of rapport with him.

I totally forgot Boras was his agent.

11 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Gotta have some risk for the reward....Personally I’m not willing to forfeit potential for the perceived safeness of Bum/Keuchle. Those guys are going to come to the AL and be 3rd stater inning eater type. I’ll take the risk of Ryu being a 1/2.

There's different levels of risk/reward with every one of these guys. If I'm giving someone a contract, I want them to be on the field. I'm also not entirely convinced you have to go out and get a 1/2, nor force a signing and shoehorn it into that role for the competitive window. Wheeler totally fit that mold which is why he was such a great fit, and why it sucked so much they missed on him. But at the same time, you have to hope this team already has their 1/2 in some combination of Giolito/Kopech/Cease. Anything the Sox add this offseason should be to plug holes and add the missing complementary players. If the Sox core fails, it doesn't matter who you bring in (especially with this FA class) - they aren't going to be competitive.

Edited December 6, 2019 by CWSpalehoseCWS

[caulfield12]

Ryu has averaged 25 starts per season if you leave out 2016...so that's not TOO bad.

It's missing an average of about 6 weeks...although if you dig deeper and eliminate 2018, the average is 27.25 starts per season.

 

147 innings pitched per season, including 2018, when he only pitched for about half the season.

Of course, you're paying for ages 33-35 or 33-36 and his 2nd place Cy Young performance in 2019, but he's definitely far from the definition of a power pitcher...and most (not all) would much prefer to take a chance on him vs. Keuchel if the money/years were similar.

 

Edited December 6, 2019 by caulfield12

[Orlando]

First time hearing the Sox On Tap Podcast. They had Merkin on. A lot of good stuff. He said that this isn’t one of those off seasons where the Sox miss a target and stop. They will add. He also predicts that they will make two moves at the Winter Meetings. Also said that SP is the priority before RF

[poppysox]

12 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Just so i can hold myself accountable in writing - I'm okay with Bumgarner, and even like him over a few other pitchers...

I'd go 4/76 on Bumgarner or 5/90 (tops). I'd rather have Ryu at those exact same numbers, injuries be damned. 

I'm thinking right along those same lines.  MadBum is not worth 100 and just because agents talk up 100 and maybe more...just doesn't make it so.  If FO thinks he is 5/80-90 that should be the offer.  My preference would be Ryu but Bum is fine at sane money.

[wegner]

Thinking about a Plan B...It seems to me that Hahn & Co did not really have a plan B last year after losing out on Machado.  I know it is very early, but I wonder if they really did not have a plan B after Wheeler?  I am pretty sure they figured they would get him at the amount they were willing to offer and went after him aggressively early on.  I would guess that there is a Plan B because this should be an important offseason.  I just don't know which way they will go...put the $$ towards improving the offense more, or still spend big on the SP that is left?  (Outside of Cole and Strasburg that is...that offer to Wheeler seems like the very tip top of what the Sox would offer on a free agent pitcher).

Edited December 6, 2019 by wegner