Successful Plan B; What’s Next?

[SoxBlanco]

Just now, SoCalChiSox said:

If there's no reasonable backup plan then if it means overpaying by 15m instead of 5m or whatever you have to do it. After all, we now have "unprecedented financial flexibility" or so we were told.

It sucks to overpay but it's worth it compared to basically waiving the white flag for one of Giolito/Moncada's remaining four years which it seems they are now doing. 

They thought they were overpaying!!  They used the exact strategy you are describing. Do you think a negotiation is just a completely transparent process where you see all other team's bids and you know exactly the amount it would take for him to sign?

[Hatchetman]

It's like going to the High School dance and not dancing with any of the girls. "None of them were pretty enough for me."   Maybe the problem is you.

[ChiSox59]

13 minutes ago, Hatchetman said:

Nobody will be b****ing if the Sox go to the World Series. I assume that's what we're trying to do. Or not.

Continue to complain about the Sox outbidding the rest of baseball and the guy choosing a different team of out preference.  It's going to get you super far! 

[SoCalChiSox]

8 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

They thought they were overpaying!!  They used the exact strategy you are describing. Do you think a negotiation is just a completely transparent process where you see all other team's bids and you know exactly the amount it would take for him to sign?

It was reported that after taxes, the Sox offer was about 2m more than PHI. So no they aren't really overpaying in relationship to the offer which where family wants to be. 

Looks like the Sox offered just enough so they could plausibly say we had the best offer (they learned from last year when everyone could see through the BS incentive deal last year) while at the same time knowing the difference would be tiny enough that their offer would be turned down. 

Offer 135 and lock your no.2 down. It's better than wasting money on garbage.

Or getting a 4/5 for 80m and having the fans curse at them. They will receive ZERO credit for getting backed into overpaying for Dallas Keuchel. 

 

[Moan4Yoan]

20 minutes ago, centerfieldsixers said:

Some on here want to pay Baumgarner 120 and Kuechel 80 just to get them

But Bumgarner already signed for $85 million, far less than $120 million, and Keuchel hasn’t even signed yet so quite frankly you are talking out of your ass.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Moan4Yoan said:

But Bumgarner already signed for $85 million, far less than $120 million, and Keuchel hasn’t even signed yet so quite frankly you are talking out of your ass.

Because he wanted to play in Arizona because his horses are there (seriously).  He would have had to have been paid over $100M from one the CA teams to get a comparable take home pay from what he got from AZ.  

[centerfieldsixers]

the only one who talks out of his ass is you. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Weird that the state income tax rate in Illinois is now being implied as an excuse for the White Sox inability to sign upper tier free agents. Cubs didn’t have an issue in the past and teams in California and New York don’t seem to have a problem despite much higher state rates.

[Moan4Yoan]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Because he wanted to play in Arizona because his horses are there (seriously).  He would have had to have been paid over $100M from one the CA teams to get a comparable take home pay from what he got from AZ.  

That’s fine and reasonable but no one wanted to pay Bumgarner $120 million and Keuchel $80 million regardless.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Moan4Yoan said:

That’s fine and reasonable but no one wanted to pay Bumgarner $120 million and Keuchel $80 million regardless.

No one as in no teams?  A good number of posters here wanted to hand Bumgarner a blank check.  "Just do what you have to do to get him."

[centerfieldsixers]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

No one as in no teams?  A good number of posters here wanted to hand Bumgarner a blank check.  "Just do what you have to do to get him."

yes and we know who they are

[centerfieldsixers]

newsflash.. we are going to have to grossly overpay for top tier pitchers to come here. If you can't understand you never will

[steveno89]

39 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Yes, there was and still is.  Go after the next best options...

Bumgarner for $85 million which was $33 million dollars less than Wheeler signed for.  Ryu and Keuchel are still available.

There were and still are options available.  Just because you miss out on your “Plan A” doesn’t mean you completely stop trying.  That is a loser’s mentality.

You seem to be making excuses for Hahn and the Sox. 

You do not know what else goes on in these negotiations though. I always suspected it would be difficult to get Bumgarner to leave the NL, especially the West.

Ryu and Keuchel remain unsigned, we cannot really talk what ifs until the ink is dried. What we do know if that Ryu has an extensive injury history and going multi year with him would be a massive risk. 

Keuchel remains a possibility, but the Sox will sit back and continue to monitor free agent markets. There are years and prices that make sense, and years and prices that do not. Going out and spending on players for the hell of it is not smart. There are very real red flags on these guys. 

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Weird that the state income tax rate in Illinois is now being implied as an excuse for the White Sox inability to sign upper tier free agents. Cubs didn’t have an issue in the past and teams in California and New York don’t seem to have a problem despite much higher state rates.

That has been my argument. The location doesn’t seem to hurt the Cubs or the Yankees, or Red Sox. But White Sox? It isn’t a first rate organization, and until they start winning, the guys who can go anywhere will chose elsewhere if the money is essentials the same. They can only blame themselves for letting this franchise go down as far as it has. The Tribune didn’t even have a beat writer most of the season.

It is a unique problem for a franchise Rick Hahn went out of his way to describe as a destination.

i am amazed the pass they get on this.

 

[SoCalChiSox]

Just now, centerfieldsixers said:

newsflash.. we are going to have to grossly overpay for top tier pitchers to come here. If you can't understand you never will

Ok...then grossly overpay. The window has 4 years left before Moncada and Giolito hit the market. We also have been told we have unprecedented financial flexibility.

So why isn't Wheeler signed?

The reason can't be because his family wanted to stay close to NJ because if that's the case there's no reason for you to be chasing him for two months in the first place and making him a 125m offer. 

Wheeler will gladly sign in Afghanistan if you make it worth his while.

We didn't.

 

[hi8is]

19 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

talking out of your ass

Don't go there.

[Dick Allen]

For what they get in salary and term every one of the top free agents is going to eventually be an overpay. And the teams that get “burned “ by signing these guys, keep signing more of them.

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Ok...then grossly overpay. The window has 4 years left before Moncada and Giolito hit the market. We also have been told we have unprecedented financial flexibility.

So why isn't Wheeler signed?

The reason can't be because his family wanted to stay close to NJ because if that's the case there's no reason for you to be chasing him for two months in the first place and making him a 125m offer. 

Wheeler will gladly sign in Afghanistan if you make it worth his while.

We didn't.

Its not like offers are submitted through a portal and everyone has access to everyone else's offers.  They made an aggressive offer to Wheeler.  More than any other team.  When you make over $20M a year, you can walk away from a few million for family reasons.  I am sure there is a number where Wheeler would have said "fuck it", but it was quite a bit more than $125M, which means it probably would have been just a disgustingly bad contract.  

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

You do not know what else goes on in these negotiations though. I always suspected it would be difficult to get Bumgarner to leave the NL, especially the West.

Ryu and Keuchel remain unsigned, we cannot really talk what ifs until the ink is dried. What we do know if that Ryu has an extensive injury history and going multi year with him would be a massive risk. 

Keuchel remains a possibility, but the Sox will sit back and continue to monitor free agent markets. There are years and prices that make sense, and years and prices that do not. Going out and spending on players for the hell of it is not smart. There are very real red flags on these guys. 

Which of these is the biggest risk?

1. Overpaying by going to $135 million on Wheeler

2. Signing Keuchel or Ryu despite the red flags

3. Having a bunch of stuff go right but missing the playoffs or struggling and wasting a year of control for Moncada and Giolito because you started the season with a weak pitching rotation

[steveno89]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Which of these is the biggest risk?

1. Overpaying by going to $135 million on Wheeler

2. Signing Keuchel or Ryu despite the red flags

3. Having a bunch of stuff go right but missing the playoffs or struggling and wasting a year of control for Moncada and Giolito because you started the season with a weak pitching rotation

Signing them to what though? Is rolling the dice on Ryu for two years a risk worth taking? Perhaps. Keuchel for three years? Perhaps. 

If Ryu wants three and Keuchel wants four I think we would be wise to look elsewhere for help. These guys could still be in play for the Sox.

[Balta1701]

Just now, steveno89 said:

Signing them to what though? Is rolling the dice on Ryu for two years a risk worth taking? Perhaps. Keuchel for three years? Perhaps. 

If Ryu wants three and Keuchel wants four I think we would be wise to look elsewhere for help. These guys could still be in play for the Sox.

Yes, 3--4 year deals for them, market value not some imaginary discount.

The org is rolling the dice on 1 of those options. They already decided #1 was too risky. You can't choose none of the above because skipping the first 2 is choosing the 3rd.

[wegner]

8 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Ok...then grossly overpay. The window has 4 years left before Moncada and Giolito hit the market. We also have been told we have unprecedented financial flexibility.

So why isn't Wheeler signed?

The reason can't be because his family wanted to stay close to NJ because if that's the case there's no reason for you to be chasing him for two months in the first place and making him a 125m offer. 

Wheeler will gladly sign in Afghanistan if you make it worth his while.

We didn't.

 

I disagree....his spin rate would be awful in that dry weather and with the size of the ballparks in that Afghan league his ERA would skyrocket.  Plus it is not close enough to New Jersey.

[Moan4Yoan]

2 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Signing them to what though? Is rolling the dice on Ryu for two years a risk worth taking? Perhaps. Keuchel for three years? Perhaps. 

If Ryu wants three and Keuchel wants four I think we would be wise to look elsewhere for help. These guys could still be in play for the Sox.

Why is one more year the ultimate dealbreaker?

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Its not like offers are submitted through a portal and everyone has access to everyone else's offers.  They made an aggressive offer to Wheeler.  More than any other team.  When you make over $20M a year, you can walk away from a few million for family reasons.  I am sure there is a number where Wheeler would have said "fuck it", but it was quite a bit more than $125M, which means it probably would have been just a disgustingly bad contract.  

Hahn indicated the White Sox were told Wheeler preferrred the east coast. Perhaps they thought no one would go more than $110 million and thought the buffer would have been big enough, or maybe if they went to $135 million, Philly raises its bid as well. All that really matters is the Sox had a target, and they missed. You can take the fact the Sox mad the highest bid as a moral victory, and doing all they can do, I take it as embarrassing. Someone would rather play in Philadelphia than Chicago and proves it by taking less money. Why doesn’t that happen to the Cubs?

l

[SoCalChiSox]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Its not like offers are submitted through a portal and everyone has access to everyone else's offers.  They made an aggressive offer to Wheeler.  More than any other team.  When you make over $20M a year, you can walk away from a few million for family reasons.  I am sure there is a number where Wheeler would have said "fuck it", but it was quite a bit more than $125M, which means it probably would have been just a disgustingly bad contract.  

I realize there isn't a portal, however the agent has every incentive to keep shopping around the best offer to others to see who can top it and by how much.

It makes no sense to hide the particulars of actual offers when you are trying to create a bidding war. 

I have zero doubt the agent told the Sox what kind of premium would be needed to get it done. The Sox folded like a cheap suit.

Just like they did last year. 

I expect them to produce a No. 2. 

A No. 2 is NOT Dallas Keuchel nor is it David Price.

And I expect them to do it without giving up Moncada, Jimenez, Robert, Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Madrigal or Vaughn.

And I expect them NOT to give up both Dunning and Stiever. 

How are they supposed to be doing that?

Well they are taking first class flights like they are big shots when they've been pathetic losers for a decade. If you're a big shot figure it out.