Successful Plan B; What’s Next?

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Hahn indicated the White Sox were told Wheeler preferrred the east coast. Perhaps they thought no one would go more than $110 million and thought the buffer would have been big enough, or maybe if they went to $135 million, Philly raises its bid as well. All that really matters is the Sox had a target, and they missed. You can take the fact the Sox mad the highest bid as a moral victory, and doing all they can do, I take it as embarrassing. Someone would rather play in Philadelphia than Chicago and proves it by taking less money. Why doesn’t that happen to the Cubs?

l

IDGAF about the Cubs.  I agree its not a moral victory.  It sucks he went elsewhere.  I am encouraged that the org was willing to put forth that level of commitment.  I also also encouraged that when they missed, they didn't turn around and offer that same deal to a god awful longterm fit like MadBum just because they missed.  I also understand why the Sox wouldn't be too enamored with paying Ryu and Kecuhel $20M AAV for 4 years. Those are the types of deals that can kill a mid market team.  But yes, we need pitching, and now Hahn needs to get creative.  

[SoCalChiSox]

12 minutes ago, wegner said:

I disagree....his spin rate would be awful in that dry weather and with the size of the ballparks in that Afghan league his ERA would skyrocket.  Plus it is not close enough to New Jersey.

Well played.

Lol. 

[wegner]

1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Well played.

Lol. 

Thank you.  I will be here all week...hitting F5.

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, wegner said:

Thank you.  I will be here all week...hitting F5.

Ain’t that the sad truth

[Superstar Lamar]

My guess is Ryu signs for less than Bumgarner, just as Bumgarner signed for less than Wheeler and Wheeler signed for less than Cole/Strasburg.

The tiers of players has been pretty static compared to pre FA opinions, even if the money across the entire market has been greater.

I think Ryu will be about 3 years at 45-50 million.  Keuchel will be less than that.

[SoCalChiSox]

4 minutes ago, Superstar Lamar said:

My guess is Ryu signs for less than Bumgarner, just as Bumgarner signed for less than Wheeler and Wheeler signed for less than Cole/Strasburg.

The tiers of players has been pretty static compared to pre FA opinions, even if the money across the entire market has been greater.

I think Ryu will be about 3 years at 45-50 million.  Keuchel will be less than that.

I think we would have scooped up Ryu for 3/50 if he could be had for that by now. 

I think Boras is trying to get a 4th year for both Ryu and Keuchel which is why there may be a stalemate for awhile. 

[ChiSox59]

21 minutes ago, Superstar Lamar said:

My guess is Ryu signs for less than Bumgarner, just as Bumgarner signed for less than Wheeler and Wheeler signed for less than Cole/Strasburg.

The tiers of players has been pretty static compared to pre FA opinions, even if the money across the entire market has been greater.

I think Ryu will be about 3 years at 45-50 million.  Keuchel will be less than that.

There is ZERO percent chance Ryu signs for 3/$50M or less.  

[steveno89]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

There is ZERO percent chance Ryu signs for 3/$50M or less.  

I could see Ryu settling for a two year deal with an option. The injury history is hard to ignore. 

I have not heard of one reported three year offer for Ryu. 

[Moan4Yoan]

3 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I could see Ryu settling for a two year deal with an option. The injury history is hard to ignore. 

I have not heard of one reported three year offer for Ryu. 

If Ryu was willing to settle for a 2 year deal, even with a high AAV, I think he would probably be signed already.  He is probably getting offered 3 year deals and holding out for a 4 year contract.

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I could see Ryu settling for a two year deal with an option. The injury history is hard to ignore. 

I have not heard of one reported three year offer for Ryu. 

If its a 2 year deal, its going to be damn near $50M. But it won't be a two year deal. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Let me lay out both sides of the issue here.  From all accounts, the Sox were enamored with Wheeler and had some concerns with MadBum, Ryu, & Keuchel.  They believed that Wheeler would have provided value deep into his contract, whereas they considered Ryu & Keuchel to be more near-term plays (I think MadBum was never considered a fit).  Their ultimate fear is signing someone like Ryu or Keuchel a year early and then they end up sucking right when the rest of the team is ready to win.

I think that’s a completely fair point of view, but one that should have required two courses of action.  Either a win at all costs bid of Wheeler (which theoretically would have meant offering the Corbin deal) or more reasonably having some sort of backup plan in place to acquire a stopgap without dealing too deeply from your prospect capital.  I really don’t have much of a issue with how they approached Wheeler, but I think they completed failed if they did not have solid backup plans in place, which at the moment is seems they did not.  

I know we all have different expectations for next year, but at a very minimum the Sox need to have a roster that can challenge for a playoff if enough young guys proceed with their development.  And that means adding two starters, one at least of the mid rotation variety.  Wheeler can not be used as an excuse for failing to get this done.  I’ve given Hahn the benefit of the doubt plenty of times in the past, but to me failing to add the starters he’s talked up for months now would be one of his biggest fuckups as GM and I would lose all confidence in his ability to lead this organization going forward.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Let me lay out both sides of the issue here.  From all accounts, the Sox were enamored with Wheeler and had some concerns with MadBum, Ryu, & Keuchel.  They believed that Wheeler would have provided value deep into his contract, whereas they considered Ryu & Keuchel to be more near-term plays (I think MadBum was never considered a fit).  Their ultimate fear is signing someone like Ryu or Keuchel a year early and then they end up sucking right when the rest of the team is ready to win.

I think that’s a completely fair point of view, but one that should have required two courses of action.  Either a win at all costs bid of Wheeler (which theoretically would have meant offering the Corbin deal) or more reasonably having some sort of backup plan in place to acquire a stopgap without dealing too deeply from your prospect capital.  I really don’t have much of a issue with how they approached Wheeler, but I think they completed failed if they did not have solid backup plans in place, which at the moment is seems they did not.  

I know we all have different expectations for next year, but at a very minimum the Sox need to have a roster that can challenge for a playoff if enough young guys proceed with their development.  And that means adding two starters, one at least of the mid rotation variety.  Wheeler can not be used as an excuse for failing to get this done.  I’ve given Hahn the benefit of the doubt plenty of times in the past, but to me failing to add the starters he’s talked up for months now would be one of his biggest fuckups as GM and I would lose all confidence in his ability to lead this organization going forward.

This right here. I am much more upset with the Sox that they seemingly had zero Plan B and instead are moving their "contention window" back a year because of it. If your rebuild is centered around 1 player, your rebuild is probably doomed to fail. I don't fault Wheeler for going to Philly. He had his reasons - which NONE of us know with 100% certainty. Acting like more money was the deal breaker is blind to other factors. He very well may have preferred Phillies playoff odds to the Sox. NL vs. AL. East Coast vs. Central U.S. Vicinity to his future wife's family. We simply don't know for sure. The Sox lack of urgency to move on to the next best option is much more worrisome to me than their 2nd place finish.

[caulfield12]

31 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

This right here. I am much more upset with the Sox that they seemingly had zero Plan B and instead are moving their "contention window" back a year because of it. If your rebuild is centered around 1 player, your rebuild is probably doomed to fail. I don't fault Wheeler for going to Philly. He had his reasons - which NONE of us know with 100% certainty. Acting like more money was the deal breaker is blind to other factors. He very well may have preferred Phillies playoff odds to the Sox. NL vs. AL. East Coast vs. Central U.S. Vicinity to his future wife's family. We simply don't know for sure. The Sox lack of urgency to move on to the next best option is much more worrisome to me than their 2nd place finish.

Looking at the Nats, Braves and reinvigorated Mets, not even sure that’s true.

As of right now, though, Kopech and Wheeler knocked the competitive part of the rebuild back two years.

Without the external injection of five pitchers from those three trades, we’d already be talking about tearing it down.   Rodon and Fulmer being the closest things to development after Sale and Q isn’t exactly a crowning achievement on most resumes.

Edited December 16, 2019 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

I think it can be said that Hahn and the Org in general (including KW and JR here) have a cockiness about them that is unearned.   I feel like they are sniffing each other's farts up there in the C suite floor getting high off their own supply.  Would anybody doubt that Hahn (and KW) believe they are "too smart" to overpay for Wheeler?  Would anybody doubt that they were blindsided that he didn't take slightly more money to play for them?

It feels like Hahn is either gun shy or overly confident in his ability to pull off Oakland like dumpster dives every offseason.  Which hey that's fine if JR isn't going to pony up the cash for FA but clubs like the As invest so much more in scouting, development and LA.  It's one or the other at min!  And the best clubs, like the Yankees, and Houston are spending money everywhere, doing both.  

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I think it can be said that Hahn and the Org in general (including KW and JR here) have a cockiness about them that is unearned.   I feel like they are sniffing each other's farts up there in the C suite floor getting high off their own supply.  Would anybody doubt that Hahn (and KW) believe they are "too smart" to overpay for Wheeler?  Would anybody doubt that they were blindsided that he didn't take slightly more money to play for them?

It feels like Hahn is either gun shy or overly confident in his ability to pull off Oakland like dumpster dives every offseason.  Which hey that's fine if JR isn't going to pony up the cash for FA but clubs like the As invest so much more in scouting, development and LA.  It's one or the other at min!  And the best clubs, like the Yankees, and Houston are spending money everywhere, doing both.  

I think you could apply this to all front offices in some manner. We're just so used to seeing it for so long with the same people in place. Is being cocky better or worse than being indecisive? Both probably have their positives and negatives.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I think you could apply this to all front offices in some manner. We're just so used to seeing it for so long with the same people in place. Is being cocky better or worse than being indecisive? Both probably have their positives and negatives.

I feel like this happens a lot:

JR: so who is are the _____ to get us over the hump in FA?

Hahn: these guys, but specifically this one guy.

JR: will we have to overpay what your metrics say we should?

Hahn: No, I can make it happen at the price we consider good.

*player signs elsewhere*

JR: What happened?

Hahn: we can make better use of the payroll.

[Saufley]

So, where's that Ozuna rumor now? Or anything else? 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I truly believe if the Sox have sustained winning for the next few seasons, they’ll get prime FAs if Jerry will spend. They’re never getting the 250-300 million dollar guys though. 

[Big Hurtin]

22 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I feel like this happens a lot:

JR: so who is are the _____ to get us over the hump in FA?

Hahn: these guys, but specifically this one guy.

JR: will we have to overpay what your metrics say we should?

Hahn: No, I can make it happen at the price we consider good.

*player signs elsewhere*

JR: What happened?

Hahn: we can make better use of the payroll.

I think the phrase you would most hear is "It's not in the budget."

[Moan4Yoan]

15 minutes ago, Saufley said:

So, where's that Ozuna rumor now? Or anything else? 

Frank Castillo and Hector Gomez are still waiting for it to be announced.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

3 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Frank Castillo and Hector Gomez are still waiting for it to be announced.

It would be funny if he did sign here still. I bet both would claim they had it first.

[pcq]

Just now, steveno89 said:

https://theathletic.com/1460540/2019/12/16/mailbag-where-do-the-white-sox-go-from-here-and-will-they-ever-sign-a-scott-boras-client/?source=shared-article

James does a great job at answering questions and alluding to what the front office is likely dealing with. Missing on Wheeler was huge, because they projected him to still be a quality option in years two, three and four, whereas you really cannot do that with many of the remaining FA pitching options. 

It will not make people happy, and is far from sexy, but I am starting to expect two bargain bin starters on one year deals being added to the 2020 team. The Central is winnable, but James' point about going from low 70's wins to near 90 is not easy to do in a single offseason. Overpaying now for pitching we may not even want in twelve months is a difficult decision. I am not here to carry water or to say this is an acceptable approach, but long term it may be in our best interests. 

Our farm is top heavy and fairly thin on depth that we should not be stealing from at this stage to bandaid the MLB roster. 

Colome/Herrera come off the books after 2020, opening up nearly $18.8 million in payroll. Yes, we will need to address the bullpen, but that breathing room will be nice. We need internal options to develop and be MLB ready. 

 

You can also go six man and skip one guy every time through. The guy skipped can be your emergency pitcher. 

[Dick Allen]

Dallas Keuchel is now too old for the White Sox to sign. He was drafted 8 months after the team’s last playoff appearance.

The team still has the same 3 dopes making the decisions.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

33 minutes ago, pcq said:

You can also go six man and skip one guy every time through. The guy skipped can be your emergency pitcher. 

Except Burdi and Ian Hamilton looked like the best internal candidates for those roles.

They do still have Stiever, but they absolutely cannot go into a contending season with ?'s littering the back end of the pen.

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Let me lay out both sides of the issue here.  From all accounts, the Sox were enamored with Wheeler and had some concerns with MadBum, Ryu, & Keuchel.  They believed that Wheeler would have provided value deep into his contract, whereas they considered Ryu & Keuchel to be more near-term plays (I think MadBum was never considered a fit).  Their ultimate fear is signing someone like Ryu or Keuchel a year early and then they end up sucking right when the rest of the team is ready to win.

I think that’s a completely fair point of view, but one that should have required two courses of action.  Either a win at all costs bid of Wheeler (which theoretically would have meant offering the Corbin deal) or more reasonably having some sort of backup plan in place to acquire a stopgap without dealing too deeply from your prospect capital.  I really don’t have much of a issue with how they approached Wheeler, but I think they completed failed if they did not have solid backup plans in place, which at the moment is seems they did not.  

I know we all have different expectations for next year, but at a very minimum the Sox need to have a roster that can challenge for a playoff if enough young guys proceed with their development.  And that means adding two starters, one at least of the mid rotation variety.  Wheeler can not be used as an excuse for failing to get this done.  I’ve given Hahn the benefit of the doubt plenty of times in the past, but to me failing to add the starters he’s talked up for months now would be one of his biggest fuckups as GM and I would lose all confidence in his ability to lead this organization going forward.

This is a really good and fair post. Ultimately it’s still mid December, so we need to see how the roster shakes out before we know what the backup plan was, or if they truly had none.