Successful Plan B; What’s Next?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 hours ago, hi8is said:

Came here thinking the same thing but having no idea what is possible to pull off.

Now we know what we’ll be talking with the bottom dwellers about next week.

Matt Boyd ?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Not sure they're fucked. 

Madison Bumgarner is not my favorite FA, but he'd be an incredibly massive upgrade over what they have. 

Yep the only reason for the hate oh him is that people want to make the playoffs which to me was pretty pie in the sky thinking if the only way to make them was all put on getting one pitcher when in reality getting Wheeler only gave us 2 good pitchers and a bunch of unproven youngsters.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

And we'll win 76 games.

Wait so you take a 72 win team add Robert, Madrigal, Kopech Keuchel Catellanos Grandal. Then you still have Jimenez with a year of experience under his belt, a superstar in Moncada another year of Giolito. Cease and Lopez getting another year to figure things out  and it's all worth only 4 extra wins ?

SO you subtract Keuchel add Wheeler and Castellanos and they go from 76 wins to a playoff team ? I don't think you care at this point if you make any sense. You are just angry.

Edited December 5, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

30 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Matt Boyd ?

The Tigers aren't going to trade them within the division and NOT expect an extra 10-15% premium in terms of prospect return.

He's certainly not going to come at bargain prices.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Wait so you take a 72 win team add Robert, Madrigal, Kopech Keuchel Catellanos Grandal. The you still have Jimenez with a year of experience under his belt, a superstar in Moncada another year of Giolito. Cease and Lopez getting another year to figure things out  and it's all worth only 4 extra wins ?

SO you subtract Keuchel add Wheeler and Castellanos and they go from 76 wins to a playoff team ? I don't think you care at this point if you make any sense. You are just angry.

Of course, the main issue here is the dearth of FA pitching options in the next two FA classes if our own youngsters don't live up to their potential...and lack of "expendable" trade chips of any value.

Buying too many of those guys on the open market (well, overpaying is the word) is not the recipe to end up as anything but another version of the Chicago Cubs' current predicament.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

The Tigers aren't going to trade them within the division and NOT expect an extra 10-15% premium in terms of prospect return.

He's certainly not going to come at bargain prices.

Personally I don't think the Sox have the ammo for a good pitcher with 3 years of control without dipping into prospects no one wants to trade which is what Detroit would want. When trading within a division when you are rebuilding I don't think it matters too much . The Tigers wont be good for a long time so Boyd beating them is what they want anyway when they are tanking. I was just responding to the feeding on the bottom dwellers comment and threw out a name.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Of course, the main issue here is the dearth of FA pitching options in the next two FA classes if our own youngsters don't live up to their potential...and lack of "expendable" trade chips of any value.

Buying too many of those guys on the open market (well, overpaying is the word) is not the recipe to end up as anything but another version of the Chicago Cubs' current predicament.

I think the Sox needed to 2021 to compete anyway, Just too many young question marks to lay every single hope of making the playoffs on Wheeler. That's just pie in the sky wishing and hoping getting that one guy will lead to getting the next guy and converting on them all. It's just not reasonable thinking . We'll know more about our minor league guys and the young guys on the 25 after 2020 and maybe have more trade chips if some do well and if Kopech, Collins, Robert, Madrigal. Lopez or Cease really step up  things can change in a hurry.

Edited December 5, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Eminor3rd]

The fact that they were the highest bidder on Wheeler is encouraging because it at least indicates that they understood how critically important Wheeler was for them in this particular market, given their self-imposed spending limits and the alternatives that are left.

Unfortunately, whether it’s their fault or not, they missed on Wheeler, and there’s simply isn’t a comparable alternative available that they’ve decided they can afford. The types of prospects they can afford to part with aren’t good enough to get a guy anywhere close to as good as Wheeler. And the next tier of pitchers on the free agent market are either substantially worse, substantially riskier, or both.

At this point, the best Plan B (other than deciding to actually try to be a legitimate MLB franchise and go and get Strasburg) is probably to ride the excruciating train that will be the Ryu bidding, as Boras drags it all the way into March knowing he has to cash in on the elite year of a guy who has somehow gotten to free agency despite being healthy for roughly a quarter of his career. 

Ryu has the ability to out-produce Wheeler (he just did), but if you want to talk about risk — this is not a guy you want to commit too many years to, especially at the AAV that his 2019 performance is gonna command. Dude has been plagued with myriad issues, including shoulder problems that looked like they were gonna end his career just a few seasons back. 

Maybe you can get him at... what... 3/65? I don’t know that you can risk much more than that given his health track record. Especially not if you need him to be a horse in the #2 spot. The Dodgers were a great fit carrying nine legit starters and shuffling them around like rookies by exploiting the DL and paying the guys enough to stop their bellyaching about getting shuttled back and forth to AAA, but that’s not what the Sox are gonna be able to do. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by Eminor3rd

[bmags]

4 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

The fact that they were the highest bidder on Wheeler is encouraging because it at least indicates that they understood how critically important Wheeler was for them in this particular market, given their self-imposed spending limits and the alternatives that are left.

Unfortunately, whether it’s their fault or not, they missed on Wheeler, and there’s simply isn’t a comparable alternative available that they’ve decided they can afford. The types of prospects they can afford to part with aren’t good enough to get a guy anywhere close to as good as Wheeler. And the next tier of pitchers on the free agent market are either substantially worse, substantially riskier, or both.

At this point, the best Plan B (other than deciding to actually try to be a legitimate MLB franchise and go and get Strasburg) is probably to ride the excruciating train that will be the Ryu bidding, as Boras drags it all the way into March knowing he has to cash in on the elite year of a guy who has somehow gotten to free agency despite being healthy for roughly a quarter of his career. 

Ryu has the ability to out-produce Wheeler (he just did), but if you want to talk about risk — this is not a guy you want to commit too many years to, especially at the AAV that his 2019 performance is gonna command. Dude has been plagued with myriad issues, including shoulder problems that looked like they were gonna end his career just a few seasons back. 

Maybe you can get him at... what... 3/65? I don’t know that you can risk much more than that given his health track record. Especially not if you need him to be a horse in the #2 spot. The Dodgers were a great fit carrying nine legit starters and shuffling them around like rookies by exploiting the DL and paying the guys enough to stop their bellyaching about getting shuttled back and forth to AAA, but that’s not what the Sox are gonna be able to do. 

Here is my Ryu hot take - so long you can keep him to 3 years, he will not be a difficult contract to shed so long as you can avoid a "big" injury (year long), which he has not had for several years. 

And if those happen:

- The financial cost can be covered through insurance. The main cost is sox losing time without a productive TOR pitcher (which is substantial! people! We should be competitive this year!). Because sox are never near lux tax, that in theory should not affect spending.

- In the case of small injuries, say the sox want to unload him after an injury plagued first year, I still see them being able to easily shed his deal on a team buying upside in an always-starved pitching environment with minimal salary kick-in. Will they get great prospect value back? No. But they can shed cost.

So in that the main risk I see with Ryu if you can keep years down is the potential that the sox sign him but don't get the productivity. And with that, the sox really need to hit on a 2nd pitcher that has untapped potential and likelihood of health. 

They probably should have signed gibson.

[caulfield12]

31 minutes ago, bmags said:

Here is my Ryu hot take - so long you can keep him to 3 years, he will not be a difficult contract to shed so long as you can avoid a "big" injury (year long), which he has not had for several years. 

And if those happen:

- The financial cost can be covered through insurance. The main cost is sox losing time without a productive TOR pitcher (which is substantial! people! We should be competitive this year!). Because sox are never near lux tax, that in theory should not affect spending.

- In the case of small injuries, say the sox want to unload him after an injury plagued first year, I still see them being able to easily shed his deal on a team buying upside in an always-starved pitching environment with minimal salary kick-in. Will they get great prospect value back? No. But they can shed cost.

So in that the main risk I see with Ryu if you can keep years down is the potential that the sox sign him but don't get the productivity. And with that, the sox really need to hit on a 2nd pitcher that has untapped potential and likelihood of health. 

They probably should have signed gibson.

Pineda’s perhaps the more interesting move...I don’t see the point in locking in a contract like that (Gibson) for three years.   The Twins didn’t either.  Go with a pitcher more willing to sign one and a nice rewarding option year if he outperforms.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Pineda’s perhaps the more interesting move...I don’t see the point in locking in a contract like that (Gibson) for three years.   The Twins didn’t either.  Go with a pitcher more willing to sign one and a nice rewarding option year if he outperforms.

If something changes next year and gibson is just average and we have better pitching options you'd be trading a pitcher on a 2 year/20 million contract.

That is not difficult.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

If something changes next year and gibson is just average and we have better pitching options you'd be trading a pitcher on a 2 year/20 million contract.

That is not difficult.

We’ll see what the new stadium does to pitchers’ numbers...just doesn’t seem a good match for that division.

Fwiw, the Twins might want Pineda back still.  And they bid 5/$100 on Wheeler and are now in on Bumgarner, who makes more sense with that much larger outfield.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-made-100-million-offer-to-zack-wheeler-before-he-turned-to-phillies/565804332/

Edited December 5, 2019 by caulfield12

[tray]

10 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Trade for Price and Benintendi maybe?

BoSox need a catcher.

[poppysox]

8 hours ago, hi8is said:

I remember last year and the absolute blow out that occurred with everyone ( myself included ) flipping their lids when we lost out on Manny.

It was unforgivable, irrevocable, and there wasn’t another plan.

However, since we lost out on him just one short year ago... we now have Moncada rising and solidified at the same position as him. We have a potential stud all-star Dustin Peoria lite coming up and one of the best catching tandems in all of baseball.

1.) I think we can recover from missing out on Wheeler, even though I don’t know how it will happen yet.

2.) The vision this front office had for the rebuild has been going well, even with some unexpected turns on the road to contention.

Moncada + Madrigal + Grandal  > Manny + Moncada + Castro

We hope.

I will also say that in my personal opinion, this Wheeler miss could sting more than Manny on the basis of potential need filled and also because we actually had the highest offer.

???? > Wheeler

Let’s continue to hope.

I like your Moncada + Madrigal + Grandal > Manny + Moncada + Castro...I agree.

[ChiSoxJon]

18 hours ago, oldsox said:

Is Nova available?

This I thought was laughable and I hated Nova, but at this point I'd rather have an innings eater for pennies than overpay guys already over the hump (MadBum) or simply not worth it (Wheeler)

Stunned that the Sox were ready to double their highest contract for a P (Danks 5/$65M) for Zach Wheeler (???????????), guy is a good P/ a #3 on a good team and far from an ace, but extremely inconsistent and far from an innings eater, is an almost 4 ERA in the NL worth that? Hell no, everyone has to calm down, I'm just thankful he turned us down

Mad Bum's velocity has been down and so are his numbers...This guy has logged WAY too many innings to expect anything over than regression, and for that I hope we pass on him (Despite his competitiveness and wisdom and name recognition)

This team, in 2020, can set Gio (All-Star), Lopez (last chance...he's flashed a ton), and Cease (who I think people forget just how good he may be) as locks from Day 1 (pending injury) and also should have Kopech back by May and Rodon back by the ASG...that's 5 right there...while our pitching must improve, I'm against overpaying someone and then strapping us down for years to come, we should add a solid innings eater that lets us compete and will be gone in a year or two...For that reason I wanted Hamels, but 1/$18 is gross (I would have gone 2/$32 absolute tops)...Essentially this team needs a competent vet to be the guy that gets beaten out by the youth

Out of the options that fit this, I don't see much outside of Wade Miley...so Nova who was solid for literal pennies last year would not be the worst...We can spend this money on a RF this year and down the road when our needs to compete become more clear (Betts? Ace?)

Very few MLB FAs ever are worth overpaying and this year that group is Strasburg, Cole, and Rendon...No need to overpay anyone else

16 hours ago, cjgalloway said:

I'd rather have Hamels for 1-18 than Bumgarner for 4 years -18 per

Without a doubt, frankly Hamels still has more left, but 1/$18 is pretty gross

15 hours ago, hi8is said:

Stopgaps for a year and 2021 here we come.

Don't see how they can contend next year now.

They absolutely can contend WITH stopgaps in 2020, this division is a disgrace ESPECIALLY if CLE blows it up

But this team isn't a BOS or NYY or HOU yet ready to win, maybe we'll be there next year, but right now let's just win and see where it takes us

14 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Not sure they're fucked. 

Madison Bumgarner is not my favorite FA, but he'd be an incredibly massive upgrade over what they have. 

That midget that Pedro Martinez traveled with would be an incredible upgrade over the shit we took in last year

Ultimately, MadBum isn't worth it and will strap us down/prevent us from signing necessary names down the road when this team competes

14 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

The additions of Robert, Grandal, Kopech, Madrigal, and Cease (full season) make us an ~80 win team as constructed, IMO. Getting one of Ryu/Keuchel, Castellanos/Pederson, and hopefully one more significant piece pushes us towards the higher 80s. 

I don't think most Sox fans know just how good these guys are/should be

Robert can literally be Mike Trout light

Kopech should without a doubt be an ace when healthy

Madrigal is gonna hit non-stop and play GG defense at 2B, all he does is hit...perennial AVG over .300

Cease needs more time at the ML level, but he's been compared to Verlander...Best prospect arm in '18

This team is gonna be better from the inside, let alone additions like Grandal

10 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Just buy some time for Hansen, Dalquist, Dunning, Stiever or Thompson to become something.  
 

All it costs is money.  Spend that money for a few years to let the stable of arms grow.  We’ll be a juggernaut for a decade

Yup, keep building the farm and that's how you compete long term like STL

Loved Hansen, but we can probably write him off unless a miracle happens...maybe he can become a solid reliever

Dalquist and Thompson are SUPER exciting, but likely 3 years away in a perfect world (4-5 realistically)

Dunning is often forgotten about as well, ace potential and has a chance to be up in September if this team is competing

Stiever is SUPER exciting as well and could be up by 2021 OD...reinforcements are coming...and they're younger and cheaper and frankly have more left in the tank than MadBum

9 hours ago, turnin' two said:

I wonder if plan B may be something like Keuchel, then add Treinen and Betances.  

Not bad idea at all, although I have a feeling CWS addresses RF in the form of Castellanos or Ozuna (Castellanos the cheaper and perhaps better option) and maybe a vet arm like Miley or a reliever and saves the rest to add in the future AND perhaps start locking up our own guys like Kopech, Robert, and Madrigal (Have a feeling Madrigal signs an extension before the season)

[zisk]

Offer Strasburg 7 years 201 million. First 4 years 37.5 per. Last 3 17 per. Opt out after 4 years. Pay him when every one else is still earning peanuts. Sox have the money. Give him 2 days to decide. If he rejects it, move on to Rick Porcello. I'd actually rather have Porcello than Keuchel.

[centerfieldsixers]

Can we remove talk about Cole and Strasburg? Not going to happen.   

hopefully a move for a Walker, a Tehran or some other 3/4 pans out. Right now we need major league arms to eat up innings and hope for the best

 

[zisk]

16 minutes ago, centerfieldsixers said:

Can we remove talk about Cole and Strasburg? Not going to happen.   

hopefully a move for a Walker, a Tehran or some other 3/4 pans out. Right now we need major league arms to eat up innings and hope for the best

 

Hence the inclusion of Porcello. RP has a weird career pattern of being good every other year. Guess which year it is. One thing to like about

Porcello also, is his willingness to pitch inside. He hits 10-12 hitters almost every year even with really good control. He knows his stuff isn't

great so he actually pitches.

Edited December 5, 2019 by zisk

[Hatchetman]

2 minutes ago, zisk said:

Hence the inclusion of Porcello. RP has a weird career pattern of being good every other year. Guess which year it is.

Was Porcello hurt last year or just bad?

[zisk]

2 minutes ago, Hatchetman said:

Was Porcello hurt last year or just bad?

I believe he just stunk. Bad part about pitching in Boston. Mistakes almost always kill you.

[centerfieldsixers]

Porcello allowed of home runs, then again so did alot of pitchers.  I wouldnt mind Porcello either.

[centerfieldsixers]

god my grammar sucks today

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I would love to bring in Taijuan Walker 1 year 5 million with incentives.  Team option for 12 million.

I'd rather see a Walker signing than a Bumgarner/Kuechel at 20 million per year.

[iWiN4PreP]

Our Plan "b" should be to target Cole/Strasburg heavily. Those are the ones that will make our rotation go from AAAA to MLB level. If we're in the playoffs with a rotation of Stras/Gio/Kopech that might work. 

If were in the playoffs with Gio/Keuchel/Kopech that looks a lot uglier.

 

I don't think we have a shot in hell at bumgarner, nor do I want him at his projected cost. I don't see how he fits in with our squad. 

 

 

[centerfieldsixers]

we dont have a shot in hell at Cole/Strasburg either.