Sox in on MadBum

[bmags]

Just now, shakes said:

There are a lot of warts on Ryu and Bum.

I'm curious why there aren't more people open to Kuechel? If he can be had on a 3 year deal I think he's a good fit. I know he's not an attractive pitcher in this era of baseball, but he has some attractive qualities as a fit for the Sox. His skillset generally ages well, and he's the exact type of pitcher Cooper has historically worked well with. The Sox have plenty of power arms, but they need someone who can provide them veteran leadership and take the ball. He has proven he can pitch in the AL in a hitters park and compete in a pennant race. If MLB eases up on the juiced ball he even becomes a bit of a bargain.

I am fine with keuchel as our second pitcher, I just want someone with some greater likelihood of top tier pitcher (which Ryu is most likely short term, Bum is possible but it's a bet on his being a great pitcher that will just learn how to pitch differently). I do think he'd be a good role model mentor guy, which I don't discount.

[steveno89]

5 minutes ago, shakes said:

There are a lot of warts on Ryu and Bum.

I'm curious why there aren't more people open to Kuechel? If he can be had on a 3 year deal I think he's a good fit. I know he's not an attractive pitcher in this era of baseball, but he has some attractive qualities as a fit for the Sox. His skillset generally ages well, and he's the exact type of pitcher Cooper has historically worked well with. The Sox have plenty of power arms, but they need someone who can provide them veteran leadership and take the ball. He has proven he can pitch in the AL in a hitters park and compete in a pennant race. If MLB eases up on the juiced ball he even becomes a bit of a bargain.

With the way this pitching market has been shaping up, Keuchel might be able to squeeze a four year deal out of a team. I'd have to imagine his asking price will be $18-20 million per. 

[CyAcosta41]

8 minutes ago, Orlando said:

He’s also a guy that can turn into vintage Madison Bumgarner. The upside is worth it. It will be praised nationally and locally. You have to take risks. The Sox don’t have a better option IMO. You aren’t going to get someone of value if you don’t trade Robert, Madrigal or Vaughn. This is the time to take risks. Or waste another year of peak Moncada and Giolito. Standing pat is not an option IMO. 

This. 100% this.

The now is all that matters now. (Geeze, "Thanks, Yogi," right?)

Seriously, all arguments re Wheeler and Cole are legacy, moot.

With the serious accumulation of positional talent, and the clock ticking, no way can the Sox go forward with guys like Baneulos, Covey, Despaigne, Detwiler, Santana, and Santiago.

Given need and available cash, each of Bumgarner, Keuchel, and Ryu are completely "gettable." Each has pros, cons, and risk factors. Each will be considered an "overpay" on any old-fashioned stats analysis or modern bWar or other more advanced metric analysis. So what? You want to avoid that lovely list of pitchers of the ilk above, then you have to pay what the market currently costs for a better level.

If it's me, I'm all over Dallas Keuchel. Rubber-arm, much less likelihood that he implodes (either performance-wise or via injury). His very top year (2015 Cy Young) was better than anything Mark Buehrle ever put up (and I'm a total Buehrle fanatic), but now he's totally late career Mark Buehrle. Nothing wrong with that profile. And that profile is exactly what this roster full of hard-throwing righties needs. He gives the Sox a much less monochromatic look in any series he pitches in. His only wart is that you're getting a #4 and you're paying the FORMER #2 kind of pricing. Sucks. But that's the market.

I could get behind either of Bumgarner or Ryu too, but prefer Keuchel. Pair Keuchel with a return of Nova at the beginning of the season. Feel a LOT better with that than last year's parade of wishful thinking.

Only other viable option is the three-way trade, taking on a bad contract, and then using the prospects received to locate a controllable #3/4 type of arm. But who? These guys are overvalued in today's market as well.

Get thee arse in gear RH , prove that you're a Boras-whisperer, and get us a Dallas Keuchel. 

[Greek-konerko]

Just now, steveno89 said:

With the way this pitching market has been shaping up, Keuchel might be able to squeeze a four year deal out of a team. I'd have to imagine his asking price will be $18-20 million per. 

Ιf a 36years old hamels got 18,Keuchel will demand at least 20 to 22 and I wouldn't give him that much.im my eyes hes in a decline 

[bmags]

I also think that people have started to caricaturize "madbum is not the pitcher he was and and shouldn't be paid with it" with "madbum is james shields-level bad". 

[Thad Bosley]

Why oh why oh why can't this team, with all of its money and financial flexibility (which Hahn boasts about, btw) be in on Strasburg. 

Cole I sort of get because of the strong signals that he wants to play in SoCal, but why not Strasburg?  That's the guy you want in this rotation for this upcoming competitive window far more than MadBum or any of these other second tier guys.  

This is the moment to make a statement and show the seriousness of moving out of the rebuild into full-on competitive mode.  I would love to see the Sox make that kind of statement with a Strasburg signing, similar to how the statement would have looked had we signed Machado.  But to not even seemingly be in that discussion to pursue him, I don't know, it's just a little disappointing.  

 

[Baron]

I have no evidence for this whatsoever but I think they were really stunned by how yesterday went and it's going to take a little while for them to readjust. 

[Greek-konerko]

The way the pitching market shaping up either go for the big fish or trade some prospects for a stroman or Kershaw type or guy 

[MysterySource5000]

A good question on Bumgarner is what will the ball be like in 2020?  Obviously the juiced ball hurt him.

Edited December 5, 2019 by MysterySource5000

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I have thought all night and day about where do we pivot and readjust now... No one on the market makes sense (except Strasburg, who we aren't after)... The only things that make sense is go heavy on hitters and create a mashing squad... ORRR call up the Cubs (Darvish) or Red Sox (Price or.... Sale).. Those appear to be the only reasonably aquireable SP that could actually help and wouldn't cost any of our top 4.

[MysterySource5000]

 

Also, today’s tweet is funny if they have shifted to Bumgarner.

[steveno89]

11 minutes ago, MysterySource5000 said:

 

Also, today’s tweet is funny if they have shifted to Bumgarner.

I do not think the Sox are in on MBum, but I do they they would try to drive up the price for Minnesota. 

[ChiSox59]

38 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Do Sox fans realize the asking price for Ryu and Bum is currently exorbitant? 

Boras will get Ryu a 4/110 deal out of a pitching starved team, and given the injuries I'm not sure we should roll the dice on that.

I would hammer the under on 4/$110M for Ryu, and I have seen no one of note suggest anything remotely close to that figure for Ryu.

If that what he is looking for, and eventually gets, then ya - re categorize me in the hard pass category.  

I think 3/$60-65M sounds about right for Ryu. 

[SoxBlanco]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I would hammer the under on 4/$110M for Ryu, and I have seen no one of note suggest anything remotely close to that figure for Ryu.

If that what he is looking for, and eventually gets, then ya - re categorize me in the hard pass category.  

I think 3/$60-65M sounds about right for Ryu. 

Agreed.  And if we are worried about this thing dragging out because of Boras, I'd even be ok offering 3/$75M right now.

You think he would take that right now?  If not, we move on to other options and he might not ever get another offer like that.

[SoCalChiSox]

23 minutes ago, Baron said:

I have no evidence for this whatsoever but I think they were really stunned by how yesterday went and it's going to take a little while for them to readjust. 

I would hope they would have learned from last year not to be stunned by anything and to always have some contingency plans, but who knows.

 

Rabbit said like a week or so ago they were working on alot of possible trade things, I would assume some of them involved pitchers of Wheeler fell thru. 

If BOS is willing to eat half of the 150 they owe Sale, I'd definitely take him back if he passed our medical exam for the elbow. I heard he gets along fine with Rick it's just KW he doesn't like. 

[hi8is]

Winter meetings will be fun to follow. I don’t expect us to get bum and that’s fine in my book.

[steveno89]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I would hammer the under on 4/$110M for Ryu, and I have seen no one of note suggest anything remotely close to that figure for Ryu.

If that what he is looking for, and eventually gets, then ya - re categorize me in the hard pass category.  

I think 3/$60-65M sounds about right for Ryu. 

He's going to leverage Ryu's 5.3 WAR (Fangraphs) 2019 into as much $$$$ as possible, both in terms of years and dollars. While sitting here now, 3/65 might sound right, I know his agent has much higher aspirations. 

[GreatScott82]

 

I know this is the MadBum thread, but Silvy brings up a valid point. Makes no sense that were already "out" on Strasburg. So dumb. 

 

[Soxnfins]

We'll stay quiet through the winter meetings.... again if it's reported in the media, it's 99.99% for sure not going to happen.  just not how the Sox operate.

[Soxnfins]

Just now, GreatScott82 said:

 

I know this is the MadBum thread, but Silvy brings up a valid point. Makes no sense that were already "out" on Strasburg. So dumb. 

 

I always bring up the Otto Porter comparison, to be fair, he has a point about paying him $28M/yr, but not anyone baseball related that amount.  Two different sports, but similar salaries IMO.

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, Orlando said:

Fans seem opposed to MadBum, Kuechel and Ryu. My question is what’s the alternative? Save Jerry 60-100 million and start Covey? Trade Madrigal or Robert for a better pitcher? I think the Sox are against a wall. I’d rather have MadBum than stand pat. AT LEAST MadBum has upside and brings national appeal and a proven name for casuals, something the Sox sorely lack. 

Any two of the 3 guys you mention would greatly improve the rotation we start the season with.  Who knows...one of them could prove to be better than Wheeler.  We have to play the hand dealt to us.

[The Sir]

52 minutes ago, bmags said:

I am fine with keuchel as our second pitcher, I just want someone with some greater likelihood of top tier pitcher (which Ryu is most likely short term, Bum is possible but it's a bet on his being a great pitcher that will just learn how to pitch differently). I do think he'd be a good role model mentor guy, which I don't discount.

I don't get why people think Keuchel's in a decline. In a year where he didn't even pitch until late June, he averaged just under six innings a start and his BB/K/HR9 rates only went up slightly. His K-rate also went up. ERA+ went up. He's also thrown workhorse level innings before and would have done so last year had he not signed so late. He's also dominated in the AL before.

I don't think he's gonna win anymore CYs, but I also don't think Wheeler will. Maybe someone hates the idea of a longterm contract to any SP, but I don't understand why someone would be cool with $25 million for Zack Wheeler and not cool with even more for Dallas Keuchel.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, The Sir said:

I don't get why people think Keuchel's in a decline. In a year where he didn't even pitch until late June, he averaged just under six innings a start and his BB/K/HR9 rates only went up slightly. His K-rate also went up. ERA+ went up. He's also thrown workhorse level innings before and would have done so last year had he not signed so late. He's also dominated in the AL before.

I don't think he's gonna win anymore CYs, but I also don't think Wheeler will. Maybe someone hates the idea of a longterm contract to any SP, but I don't understand why someone would be cool with $25 million for Zack Wheeler and not cool with even more for Dallas Keuchel.

I think people are scared of Keuchel's margin for error and also his era appeared lucky due to his peripherals.

I do think people underrated him getting ready on a partial season which historically has seemed to have hurt others not named clemens.

[he gone.]

10 minutes ago, GreatScott82 said:

 

I know this is the MadBum thread, but Silvy brings up a valid point. Makes no sense that were already "out" on Strasburg. So dumb. 

 

It's apples to oranges. One has a 40 man roster, one has 15. One is an international game that's never been more popular around the world bringing in revenue from all over the world. That's silvy being a good radio host and driving conversation, even he knows it's a dumb comparison. 

They drive similar revenue, but valuation wise NBA has never been more popular and the bulls are almost worth 2X of the Sox. That trend will continue to spread too. 

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, The Sir said:

I don't get why people think Keuchel's in a decline. In a year where he didn't even pitch until late June, he averaged just under six innings a start and his BB/K/HR9 rates only went up slightly. His K-rate also went up. ERA+ went up. He's also thrown workhorse level innings before and would have done so last year had he not signed so late. He's also dominated in the AL before.

I don't think he's gonna win anymore CYs, but I also don't think Wheeler will. Maybe someone hates the idea of a longterm contract to any SP, but I don't understand why someone would be cool with $25 million for Zack Wheeler and not cool with even more for Dallas Keuchel.

He's been my preference all along.