FA SP: What to do after the Wheeler miss?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

I am confused why people are looking to make trades.  There are quality free agents out there at positions of need for the Sox and they should have plenty of money to spend.  I realize not all the FA options are perfect but it doesn’t make much sense to trade any talent away when the Sox can simply spend money to fill their holes.  Keep in mind, they haven’t spent much the past three years and Hahn said the money will be spent.  No excuses.

At this point, Keuchel might be the best option since he at least keeps the ball on the ground.  His agent is Boras so that will be interesting, just like with Castellanos.  But if the Sox just add two tier C starters, they damn well better spend their money signing Castellanos or Ozuna and adding significant bullpen help.

You  pick now to ask that when people have wanted to trade for Joc , JD Martinez, David Price with Benitendi ,Mookie ,Marte and a whole thread devoted to trading for starting pitchers  with prospects ? At least this one you get a pitcher with a ton of upside and plenty of years of control. And basically I contemplated it just for fun not actually thinking it was possible.

Edited December 7, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, smellysox said:

I mean I know this is fantasy but why would the dbacks want to do this? They've got to be thinking like us right? - second baseman are plentiful and easier to replace than pitching

If you know it's fantasy then you already know the answer.

[Good Guys]

13 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I could be sold on Bumgarner at 4/88 max. anything more than that, and I'd pass. Want nothing to do with Ryu and Keuchel. 

I'd bargain shop from here, and save your wad o'cash for next winter when Betts is available. 

Bumgarner had a 5.29 era away from home last year.  Oracle is very pitcher friendly park and this benefits Mad Bum tremendously.  GR is not a pitcher friendly park.  Derek Holland played for San Fran and had a 3.57 era one year after posting a 6.20 era with the White Sox.  I agree with a lot of your statement but I would prefer Ryu over Bumgarner.  If Mad Bum signs with the White Sox I think his numbers could be similar to James Shields with the White Sox.  Who also came from a very pitcher friendly park in San Diego before arriving in Chicago.

Edited December 7, 2019 by Good Guys

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, Good Guys said:

Bumgarner had a 5.29 era away from home last year.  Oracle is very pitcher friendly park and this benefits Mad Bum tremendously.  GR is not a pitcher friendly park.  Derek Holland played for San Fran and had a 3.57 era one year after posting a 6.20 era with the White Sox.  I agree with a lot of your statement but I would prefer Ryu over Bumgarner.  If Mad Bum signs with the White Sox I think his numbers could be similar to James Shields with the White Sox.  Who also came from a very pitcher friendly park in San Diego before arriving in Chicago.

Derek Holland then had a 6 ERA in San Fran the very next year. 
 

 

[Good Guys]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Derek Holland then had a 6 ERA in San Fran the very next year. 
 

 

It was a 5.90 era to be exact.  And he was then traded to the Cubs where his era was 6.89 after leaving the pitcher friendly park.  

[bmags]

29 minutes ago, Good Guys said:

It was a 5.90 era to be exact.  And he was then traded to the Cubs where his era was 6.89 after leaving the pitcher friendly park.  

Sorry, but you have a guy whose performance is vascillating wildly and are trying to draw park effects conclusions from it. If San Francisco shaved a full run off every pitcher they would be top 5 in ERa every year.

[Good Guys]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

Sorry, but you have a guy whose performance is vascillating wildly and are trying to draw park effects conclusions from it. If San Francisco shaved a full run off every pitcher they would be top 5 in ERa every year.

I never said this.  I said that Oracle is a very pitcher friendly park and this benefits Mad Bum tremendously.  There is a lot of data out there that supports this.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Good Guys said:

I never said this.  I said that Oracle is a very pitcher friendly park and this benefits Mad Bum tremendously.  There is a lot of data out there that supports this.

It obviously helps him, but you know exactly what you are doing when comparing him to James Shields. There is a whole range of outcomes here.

[ChiSoxJon]

12 hours ago, Ben Waffleson said:

Dont know if I want to give up madigral 

Yup, would love Gallen, but Madrigal is gonna be good

11 hours ago, Baron said:

https://www.sfchronicle.com/giants/shea/article/Why-Madison-Bumgarner-to-Dodgers-would-make-sense-14888456.php?utm_campaign=CMS Sharing Tools (Mobile)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

Doesn't sound like we are linked to Madison at all 

Hope not

[Two-Gun Pete]

22 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I could be sold on Bumgarner at 4/88 max. anything more than that, and I'd pass.

 

21 hours ago, poppysox said:

Ryu and Keuchel each offered 3 years at 15 million would work for me at this point.  

 

21 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Keuchel might be closer to $50...but $60ish is most accurate for both.

I’m seeing what looks like some irrational exuberance for what SP FAs will go for. I thought that many posters vastly underestimated what Wheeler and others would sign for. I think it would inform the discussion to try to make an attempt to get more clarity on this issue. For this, I turn to Spotrac, which was pretty accurate for at least one data point.

Zack Wheeler’s Market Value:   $23.4MM/yr *4years = $93.8MM.  He got $118MM/5 years for ~$23.6MM/per. Had the rumored Sox offer been $125MM/5 years, it would have been $25MM/per. Zack Wheeler Market Value on Spotrac

Some of the other SP FAs are pretty interesting as well:

Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market Value:    $27.6MM/yr * 4 years = $110.4MM. Ryu's Market Value on Spotrac

 

Dallas Keuchel’s Market Value:  $20.7MM/yr * 4 years = $103.6MM. Keuchel's Market Value on Spotrac

 

Madison Bumgarner’s Market Value:      $21.1MM/yr *5 years = $105.6MM. Bumgarner's Market Value on Spotrac

 

Now, I’ll grant that this is just one source. But, as opposed to a sportwriter’s/insider’s “opinion,” what impresses me about Spotrac is that they actually make an effort to “show their work,” inasmuch as a word problem in 4^th Grade math class. I think they were pretty spot-on with Wheeler, though the competitive market between us and Philly made it possible for him to achieve that 5^th contracted year.

Given the pitchers in question, and their agents, I think it is entirely possible that all three SPs in question just might get >$100MM and 4 or more years. I think this is especially true for the Borasshole clients in Ryu and Keuchel.

Edited December 7, 2019 by Two-Gun Pete

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

 

 

I’m seeing what looks like some irrational exuberance for what SP FAs will go for. I thought that many posters vastly underestimated what Wheeler and others would sign for. I think it would inform the discussion to try to make an attempt to get more clarity on this issue. For this, I turn to Spotrac, which was pretty accurate for at least one data point.

Zack Wheeler’s Market Value:   $23.4MM/yr *4years = $93.8MM.  He got $118MM/5 years for ~$23.6MM/per. Had the rumored Sox offer been $125MM/5 years, it would have been $25MM/per. Zack Wheeler Market Value on Spotrac

Some of the other SP FAs are pretty interesting as well:

Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market Value:    $27.6MM/yr * 4 years = $110.4MM. Ryu's Market Value on Spotrac

 

Dallas Keuchel’s Market Value:  $20.7MM/yr * 4 years = $103.6MM. Keuchel's Market Value on Spotrac

 

Madison Bumgarner’s Market Value:      $21.1MM/yr *5 years = $105.6MM. Bumgarner's Market Value on Spotrac

 

Now, I’ll grant that this is just one source. But, as opposed to a sportwriter’s/insider’s “opinion,” what impresses me about Spotrac is that they actually make an effort to “show their work,” inasmuch as a word problem in 4^th Grade math class. I think they were pretty spot-on with Wheeler, though the competitive market between us and Philly made it possible for him to achieve that 5^th contracted year.

Given the pitchers in question, and their agents, I think it is entirely possible that all three SPs in question just might get >$100MM and 4 or more years. I think this is especially true for the Borasshole clients in Ryu and Keuchel.

Bumgarner might come close...there’s just no way that Keuchel and Ryu are in that neighborhood.

If that’s the case, we might never sign a premium FA pitcher...the likes of Robbie Ray or Wheeler would be about the best we could hope for.

[Two-Gun Pete]

On 12/7/2019 at 3:26 PM, caulfield12 said:

Bumgarner might come close...there’s just no way that Keuchel and Ryu are in that neighborhood.

If that’s the case, we might never sign a premium FA pitcher...the likes of Robbie Ray or Wheeler would be about the best we could hope for.

If you look at spotrac's methodology, it really looks akin to an appraisal on a house. That is, they looked at comparable players and their FA contracts, just as an appraiser looks at similar properties to the one you want to buy.

So, look at Ryu, and look at Darvish's contract. Darvish got 6/$126MM at only 1 year younger than Ryu just 2 years ago.

Ryu (and his greedy agent) would have to anticipate 4 or 5 years, at or above $100MM. Otherwise, it would be a steep discount in years or salary by comparison.

 

I think Spotrac was pretty on point on Wheeler's deal, as well as other deals since then. So, either JR, et al accept that Fa SPs cost what they cost, OR, they repeat the same mistakes of yesteryear. (Possibly leading to an inferior on-field product.)

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

If you look at spotrac's methodology, it really looks akin to an appraisal on a house. That is, they looked at comparable players and their FA contracts, just as an appraiser looks at similar properties to the one you want to buy.

So, look at Ryu, and look at Darvish's contract. Darvish got 6/$126MM at only 1 year younger than Ryu just 2 years ago.

Ryu (and his greedy agent) would have to anticipate 4 or 5 years, at or above $100MM. Otherwise, it would be a steep discount in years or salary by comparison.

 

I think Spotrac was pretty on point on Wheeler's deal, as well as other deals since then. So, either JR, et al accept that Fa SPs cost what they cost, OR, they repeat the same mistakes of yesteryear. (Possibly leading to an inferior on-field product.)

Why are you talking about greedy agents? What about the greedy owners? There's not a team in baseball that couldn't afford Cole's contract and if anyone tells you otherwise, they're a liar. 

Instead of being mad at Scott Boras, be mad at Jerry for not being willing to meet his price. 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Why are you talking about greedy agents? 

Jack, you're entirely misreading the core of that post.

I am  not "mad at Boras."

 

I am merely reinforcing the very real idea that none of Rye/Keuchel/Bumgarner are going to accept a measly contract offer. I am trying to combat the irrational exuberance that some are placing on FS SP contracts.

 

IOW, Boras ain't gonna give any discounts. Period.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Jack, you're entirely misreading the core of that post.

I am  not "mad at Boras."

 

I am merely reinforcing the very real idea that none of Rye/Keuchel/Bumgarner are going to accept a measly contract offer. I am trying to combat the irrational exuberance that some are placing on FS SP contracts.

 

IOW, Boras ain't gonna give any discounts. Period.

The problem isn't Boras, it's owners. 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Harold's Leg Lift]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Jack, you're entirely misreading the core of that post.

I am  not "mad at Boras."

 

I am merely reinforcing the very real idea that none of Rye/Keuchel/Bumgarner are going to accept a measly contract offer. I am trying to combat the irrational exuberance that some are placing on FS SP contracts.

 

IOW, Boras ain't gonna give any discounts. Period.

Why does he have to give a discount to sign one of his players?  Why can't they just pay the price that all other 29 teams are willing to pay?

Edited December 14, 2019 by Harold's Leg Lift

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Why does he have to give a discount to sign one of his players?  Why can't they just pay the price that all other 29 teams are willing to pay?

I'm not arguing for a discount. And I agree that paying whatever it takes to get the player they want would be the better way to go.

Im arguing against those that post the idea that Ryu could/would take 3/$70MM, when Darvish got 6/$126MM.

[ChiSox59]

Darvish was better and more healthy than Ryu before he became a FA.  Darvish amassed 19.3 fWAR is 6 seasons before he was a FA vs Ryu 15.1 fWAR in 7 seasons.  

The market has definitely changed a bit since Darvish got his deal, but Darvish IMO, and certainly with respect to fWAR, was a meaningfully better bet at the point in which they became FAs.

[Two-Gun Pete]

57 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Darvish was better and more healthy than Ryu before he became a FA.  Darvish amassed 19.3 fWAR is 6 seasons before he was a FA vs Ryu 15.1 fWAR in 7 seasons.  

The market has definitely changed a bit since Darvish got his deal, but Darvish IMO, and certainly with respect to fWAR, was a meaningfully better bet at the point in which they became FAs.

This may be true. But go ahead and look at Spotrac's Market Value. They address many of the ideas you pose here.

 

Their takeaway is that Ryu and Boras aren't going for 3/70.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

 

[poppysox]

25 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

This may be true. But go ahead and look at Spotrac's Market Value. They address many of the ideas you pose here.

 

Their takeaway is that Ryu and Boras aren't going for 3/70.

If Ryu and Boras are not going for 3/70 I would walk quickly away giving them my best wishes.  His chances of competing 3 years are very poor.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

 

Still waiting for him to be correct once

[Moan4Yoan]

7 minutes ago, fathom said:

Still waiting for him to be correct once

It’s an MLB executive’s burner Twitter account!

[hi8is]

6 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

 

Don’t even care about the validity of this guy but it illustrates the problem we face in free agency with starting pitching that’s even B grade...

Teams will almost always be looking for rotation help.

So we’ll always be up against destinations like Los Angeles.

Bottom line is we’ll have to either supplement with free agency and develop our frontline starters ourselves or we’ll have to spend over market value significantly.

We all know which two of those scenarios is most likely because it is unfolding before our eyes for two consecutive years now, in some regard.

Accept reality, adjust expectations, and go to war.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

 

While this is obviously bullshit, I do think Keuchel will probably be the guy for us if he will accept a three year deal.