Strasburg back to WASH

[shakes]

7 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Let's just face the facts - we're doomed to be the Rays and A's as a franchise. let's not kid ourselves - we aren't even in the neighborhood on these type of deals. Uncle Jerry won't go past 5 years and teams are dealing out a quarter of a billion over 7 years for an arm. That's 3-4X the largest contract in Sox history that was just set 2 weeks ago. 

Our best shot is our internal talent progressing well and then us making some really nice in-season trades for controllable guys like Cole was from the Pirates for 2-3 seasons.

I would've been all in on this approach, but they would need to shift their focus and invest heavily on scouting and analytics, as well as completely revamping player development. 

It would take years, and they would have to stop hiring company men to lifetime contracts and give up the reigns completely to someone external. I just don't see it happening. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by shakes

[Soxbadger]

Just now, raBBit said:

That's true and I rooted for the Nats this year with that in mind. That said, Lerner got absolutely wrecked on both Strasburg deals.

Those deals are nothing to Lerner. He is worth over 5bil and in his 90s. He bought the nationals for $450 mil (yes thats insane seeing as Strasburg is about to make half that much).  Forbes values the nationals at 1.8 bil (https://www.forbes.com/teams/washington-nationals/#51aac1944680). In 15 years Lerner has made over $1bil on the purchase.

There are different ways to run franchises. But when you have a billions, you can run a few years in the red. 

[TaylorStSox]

3 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

I thought that was Avisail Garcia's job?

Why not both? 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, centerfieldsixers said:

you just figured this out?  Not as bad as the Rays or A's , maybe a step above

Those teams do it better than the Sox do. Learn by example. 

Who are the Sox kidding by not operating in the same fashion? 

Again, it gives some credence to the Sampson comments. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

4 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Those deals are nothing to Lerner. He is worth over 5bil and in his 90s. He bought the nationals for $450 mil (yes thats insane seeing as Strasburg is about to make half that much).  Forbes values the nationals at 1.8 bil (https://www.forbes.com/teams/washington-nationals/#51aac1944680). In 15 years Lerner has made over $1bil on the purchase.

There are different ways to run franchises. But when you have a billions, you can run a few years in the red. 

No kidding.  No one will be holding a tag day for the Lerners anytime soon.  This is a drop in the bucket to them.  

[centerfieldsixers]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Those teams do it better than the Sox do. Learn by example. 

Who are the Sox kidding by not operating in the same fashion? 

Again, it gives some credence to the Sampson comments. 

it took the Sox too long to rebuild, that was one of the big problems

[EloyJenkins]

14 minutes ago, centerfieldsixers said:

it took the Sox too long to rebuild, that was one of the big problems

What? They traded aggressively and have rebuilt in 3 seasons. How is that too long? 

[mqr]

Just now, EloyJenkins said:

What? They traded aggressively and have rebuilt in 3 seasons. How is that too long? 

I think he meant too long to get around to actually doing it. 

[EloyJenkins]

Just now, mqr said:

I think he meant too long to get around to actually doing it. 

ah, that makes much more sense. and agreed. 

[centerfieldsixers]

8 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

What? They traded aggressively and have rebuilt in 3 seasons. How is that too long? 

they waited 20 years to rebuild

[kwill]

I would like to see the White Sox make a large play for Rendon. Consider just signing a Porcello type with the hopes of a bounce back and sitting out the pitching market until midseason. Just try to mash your ways to wins and then evaluate your young pitching before the trade deadline. If need during the trade deadline use Madrigal as a trade piece. I just have faith that Kopech and Cease are going to come through next season. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by kwill

[almagest]

1 minute ago, kwill said:

I would like to see the White Sox make a large play for Rendon. Consider just signing a Porcello type with the hopes of a bounce back and sitting out the pitching market until midseason. Just try to mash your ways to wins and then evaluate your young pitching before the trade deadline. If need during the trade deadline us Madrigal as a trade piece. I just have faith that Kopech and Cease are going to come through next season. 

I'd have no problem with something like this. I'm really nervous trading for a starter because the Sox have three top-tier prospects right now (Vaughn Madrigal and Robert) in the minors and not a whole lot after that. Trading away any of those three would be a terrible idea for staying competitive for more than a couple years.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

6 minutes ago, kwill said:

I would like to see the White Sox make a large play for Rendon. Consider just signing a Porcello type with the hopes of a bounce back and sitting out the pitching market until midseason. Just try to mash your ways to wins and then evaluate your young pitching before the trade deadline. If need during the trade deadline use Madrigal as a trade piece. I just have faith that Kopech and Cease are going to come through next season. 

This is essentially what I want us to do (unless we target Ryu).. Just sign Castellanos and like Encarnacion and create a juggernaut offense and attack SP in the future.  

[fathom]

1 minute ago, cjgalloway said:

This is essentially what I want us to do (unless we target Ryu).. Just sign Castellanos and like Encarnacion and create a juggernaut offense and attack SP in the future.  

Sign Castellanos, trade for JDM and trade Vaughn for Marquez

[TomPickle]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Again, you can't ask the organization to be intelligent and responsible and then ask them to throw 260 million dollars at a guy who is worth about 180 million. They either become a good and smart organization in all facets or they don't. 

Sox fans are really bipolar.

I want them to make intelligent and savvy decisions, supplement their core with effective and talented players, and I don't want them to just spend money and not care about the expected value in return solely to show people they're going to spend.

That's how you destroy the future of the team. You don't build up the core for 4 years of complete misery, only to throw all the value you get from your young controllable assets at a SP who has an injury history that would make any doctor cringe.

If you want to sign Stras for 7 years 260 just to say the Sox did, go right ahead. It doesn't prove anything. Only winning does.

The White Sox have a four year window to contend as far as I see it right now. The rebuild was only jump started because the same front office that is in charge now was totally incapable of putting together a winning team around a core of cost controlled, extremely good players. Right now it looks like that is going to be the same exact issue facing the White Sox coming up soon as they have done very little to lengthen that window or boost the core from within. Robert was dropped in their lap and kudos to them they didn't blow that opportunity.

I am not asking the White Sox to be intelligent and responsible (especially in free agency) I am asking them to win. This is an organization that doesn't even have the ability to scout and find enough international free agents to the point where they are routinely trading their surplus theoretical money away for basically nothing or to save real money. They are not a smart front office in all facets and I don't see how you could ever expect this particular group to be as they have never shown that they are currently.

I really liked the Grandal signing, but he's also a 32 year old catcher whose value is heavily propped up by framing numbers. 32 years old is also the point in which most catchers start to decline in framing ability. He's still a fit on a team that severely lacked for on base guys and was among the worst at hitting right handed pitchers.

Signing a free agent isn't going to "destroy the future of the team" and certainly not the third best one on the market. Every pitcher is a risk. Gerrit Cole could just as easily require Tommy John as Stephen Strasburg. The entire point of having a young cheap core is so that when the time is right you can go out and make a splash signing to supplement your team and put you over the top. If the White Sox are not to that point this year they sure as hell better be next year.

By not signing good players the White Sox are not proving to be smart or future winners, they're just wasting time until the core gets too expensive to be able to sign anyone to a major deal.

Edited December 9, 2019 by TomPickle

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

The White Sox have a four year window to contend as far as I see it right now. The rebuild was only jump started because the same front office that is in charge now was totally incapable of putting together a winning team around a core of cost controlled, extremely good players. Right now it looks like that is going to be the same exact issue facing the White Sox coming up soon as they have done very little to lengthen that window or boost the core from within. Robert was dropped in their laptop and kudos to them they didn't blow that opportunity.

I am not asking the White Sox to be intelligent and responsible (especially in free agency) I am asking them to win. This is an organization that doesn't even have the ability to scout and find enough international free agents to the point where they are routinely trading their surplus theoretical money away for basically nothing or to save real money. They are not a smart front office in all facets and I don't see how you could ever expect this particular group to be as they have never shown that they are currently.

I really liked the Grandal signing, but he's also a 32 year old catcher whose value is heavily propped up by framing numbers. 32 years old is also the point in which most catchers start to decline in framing ability. He's still a fit on a team that severely lacked for on base guys and was among the worst at hitting right handed pitchers.

Signing a free agent isn't going to "destroy the future of the team" and certainly not the third best one on the market. Every pitcher is a risk. Gerrit Cole could just as easily require Tommy John as Stephen Strasburg. The entire point of having a young cheap core is so that when the time is right you can go out and make a splash signing to supplement your team and put you over the top. If the White Sox are not to that point this year they sure as hell better be next year.

By not signing good players the White Sox are not proving to be smart or future winners, they're just wasting time until the core gets too expensive to be able to sign anyone to a major deal.

Framing stats are like 7 years old; how do you have aging trends from a stat that hasn't been around long enough to even evaluate aging? Not saying it doesn't exist, I just have not seen it.

Just because Strasburg is good it doesn't mean giving him 7/245 is smart; that's the issue here. 

At some point you have to have a ceiling on negotiations, regardless of how much you want a player. 

I'm not saying they shouldn't overspend the market anywhere - they were willing to with Wheeler for example - but you can't just expect them to overspend the market on every target because some guys may have higher valuations with one team than they do across the rest of the league; this very easily could be the scenario with Stras and his ties in Washington.

Am I mad that the Sox didn't offer Stras some absurd 7/260 contract? Of course not, that would be a horrible signing for an organization in which salaries matter - regardless of what Sox fans want to think. That's far too much risk attached to a guy who has never had a 6 WAR season.

Now would I give Cole 7/280? Sure. Absolutely. I think he's much less risky and about as sure of a thing as you can find in the modern game.

Edited December 9, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[TomPickle]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Framing stats are like 7 years old; how do you have aging trends from a stat that hasn't been around long enough to even evaluate aging? Not saying it doesn't exist, I just have not seen it.

This is an older article that cites it.

Quote

Under CSAA, framing ability peaks around age 25, declines gradually until about 32, and then starts falling off a cliff, although certain catchers (the Jose Molinas of the world) hold on to the ability longer than most.

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

This is an older article that cites it.

 

Thanks for this.

I find it odd that this is from 2015; the data surrounding framing has changed so much even since then. I wonder how big their sample was to draw that conclusion; I think most catchers in general drop off around 32 so maybe those things are just correlated.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, mqr said:

Gerrit Cole is 1000% going to be a Yankee.

Cole to NY really creates a bidding war between Angels and Dodgers and Rangers and Twins and Reds on Ryu...

[GermanSoxFan]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Those teams do it better than the Sox do. Learn by example. 

Who are the Sox kidding by not operating in the same fashion? 

Again, it gives some credence to the Sampson comments. 

Okay doomer.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Sign Castellanos, trade for JDM and trade Vaughn for Marquez

They need Marquez to compete more than any single player other than Arenado...

[raBBit]

2 hours ago, Soxbadger said:

Those deals are nothing to Lerner. He is worth over 5bil and in his 90s. He bought the nationals for $450 mil (yes thats insane seeing as Strasburg is about to make half that much).  Forbes values the nationals at 1.8 bil (https://www.forbes.com/teams/washington-nationals/#51aac1944680). In 15 years Lerner has made over $1bil on the purchase.

There are different ways to run franchises. But when you have a billions, you can run a few years in the red. 

Your worth has nothing to do with paying more than you have to.

Based on your argument Lerner could buy a stock for $5 more than its trading price and its okay because he's rich.  

[SonofaRoache]

2 hours ago, cjgalloway said:

This is essentially what I want us to do (unless we target Ryu).. Just sign Castellanos and like Encarnacion and create a juggernaut offense and attack SP in the future.  

You mean attack it in the future when contracts will continue to rise out of our price range? 

[poppysox]

2 hours ago, kwill said:

I would like to see the White Sox make a large play for Rendon. Consider just signing a Porcello type with the hopes of a bounce back and sitting out the pitching market until midseason. Just try to mash your ways to wins and then evaluate your young pitching before the trade deadline. If need during the trade deadline use Madrigal as a trade piece. I just have faith that Kopech and Cease are going to come through next season. 

Let's lock down two starters and two relievers and a right fielder and not worry about a third baseman which we already have one of the best.

[shago]

3 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

The only retribution is to get Yoan to bang Wheeler's wife. 

Only Avi Garcia gets to do that