BackDoorBreach Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: They just offered a guy 5/$125M who literally has been injured the exact same amount as Ryu. That's not true though. Wheeler had TJ as everyone does now and had a setback. He was healthy before that and after. Ryu is always hurt with a million different injuries. And age. Edited December 10, 2019 by BackDoorBreach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: That's not true though. Wheeler had TJ as everyone does now and had a setback. He was healthy before that and after. Ryu is always hurt with a million different injuries. And age. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: They just offered a guy 5/$125M who literally has been injured the exact same amount as Ryu. Yeah, all three (Ryu, Wheeler & Bumgarner) have averaged less than 160 innings the last three seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: That's not true though. Wheeler had TJ as everyone does now and had a setback. He was healthy before that and after. Ryu is always hurt with a million different injuries. And age. It is true though. You can discount it because one had TJS and one didn't if that's what you want to do, but they both came to the big leagues in 2013, and they're within 10 IP of one another. Yes, Wheeler missed more time with 1 specific injury, Ryu the same amount of time with mutliple injuries, but they've pitched the same amount in their MLB career. Also, I don't believe Ryu has had any arm injuries in over 3 years. Ryu is not perfect, but he is by the far the best remaining option. 4/$85M is pretty rich for him, but I'd be willing to do it. If it gets much over that, that's pretty brutal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Good Guys said: Yeah, all three (Ryu, Wheeler & Bumgarner) have averaged less than 160 innings the last three seasons. One of those reasons I've always preferred Keuchal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: That's not true though. Wheeler had TJ as everyone does now and had a setback. He was healthy before that and after. Ryu is always hurt with a million different injuries. And age. Since 2013, which is when both players started their big league careers, Wheeler has pitched 749 innings and Ryu has pitched 740. Their availability has been almost identical. Edited December 10, 2019 by Good Guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, ptatc said: One of those reasons I've always preferred Keuchal. Yeah if Keuchel can be had for a decent price, like 3/45, he's not the worst option. I still prefer the upside of Ryu though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palehose05 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: That's not true though. Wheeler had TJ as everyone does now and had a setback. He was healthy before that and after. Ryu is always hurt with a million different injuries. And age. It's true that Ryu has had a history of injuries, but I don't remember them being to his arm. It's worth pointing out that he pitched for the Dodgers who had serious depth in their pitching staff. With as many SP's they had on their staff, they manipulated the DL by placing their players on/off for smaller non-significant injuries due allowing the SP's to rest, or they would place guys on the DL or put them in the bullpen (aka Maeda) to limit their IP's so they don't reach their incentives in the contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, palehose05 said: It's true that Ryu has had a history of injuries, but I don't remember them being to his arm. It's worth pointing out that he pitched for the Dodgers who had serious depth in their pitching staff. With as many SP's they had on their staff, they manipulated the DL by placing their players on/off for smaller non-significant injuries due allowing the SP's to rest, or they would place guys on the DL or put them in the bullpen (aka Maeda) to limit their IP's so they don't reach their incentives in the contract. This too. Dodgers have had the luxury of taking it easy on Ryu. I have to doubt that he'd have pitched more innings for pretty much any other organization. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: It is true though. You can discount it because one had TJS and one didn't if that's what you want to do, but they both came to the big leagues in 2013, and they're within 10 IP of one another. Yes, Wheeler missed more time with 1 specific injury, Ryu the same amount of time with mutliple injuries, but they've pitched the same amount in their MLB career. Also, I don't believe Ryu has had any arm injuries in over 3 years. Ryu is not perfect, but he is by the far the best remaining option. 4/$85M is pretty rich for him, but I'd be willing to do it. If it gets much over that, that's pretty brutal. I actually want Ryu as well, so I'm agreeing with you that he's the next best option. But Ryu is probably more likely to get injured. It is true that they've missed the same amount of time due to injury, but based on their injury histories, I would say Ryu is more likely to miss time over the next couple of years. That being said, I wouldn't worry about that at all. He was fairly healthy last year, and we have reserves coming back from injury to fill in for him if he does go down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: This too. Dodgers have had the luxury of taking it easy on Ryu. I have to doubt that he'd have pitched more innings for pretty much any other organization. Good point. He's definitely #1 on my realistic wish list right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said: I actually want Ryu as well, so I'm agreeing with you that he's the next best option. But Ryu is probably more likely to get injured. It is true that they've missed the same amount of time due to injury, but based on their injury histories, I would say Ryu is more likely to miss time over the next couple of years. That being said, I wouldn't worry about that at all. He was fairly healthy last year, and we have reserves coming back from injury to fill in for him if he does go down. For sure - no doubt he is an injury risk. But he's also really fucking good when he's healthy, and we have Kopech arriving in June, Rodon after the ASB. If he can stay healthy the 1st half of the year, we should be able to stomach an IL stint or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Some of you guys want to sign guys to just sign them. 2019 was the first time Ryu has thrown over 180 IP since 2013, his first year in the league. Him going on the 10 day DL for fake injuries doesn't explain why he's thrown over 150 IP only 3x in his career, 2 of them coming in 2013 and 2014. The dude is ALWAYS hurt. Gambling 80 million dollars he's somehow going to reverse his career norm while being older is foolish. Wheeler had 1 big injury with set backs. It's not close to being the same as Ryu's history. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, ChiSox59 said: For sure - no doubt he is an injury risk. But he's also really fucking good when he's healthy, and we have Kopech arriving in June, Rodon after the ASB. If he can stay healthy the 1st half of the year, we should be able to stomach an IL stint or two. Exactly. I really want Ryu. The problem is that if Boras wants to drag this out, what do we do? Do we go after MadBum or explore a trade? If we wait on Ryu and strike out, then we are shit out of luck. I just want to overpay him right now and lock him up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centerfieldsixers Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, SoxBlanco said: Exactly. I really want Ryu. The problem is that if Boras wants to drag this out, what do we do? Do we go after MadBum or explore a trade? If we wait on Ryu and strike out, then we are shit out of luck. I just want to overpay him right now and lock him up. ryu wont come to the American league and if he did he won't be the same pitcher. buyer beware Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, Good Guys said: Yeah if Keuchel can be had for a decent price, like 3/45, he's not the worst option. I still prefer the upside of Ryu though. I would give more years to keuchal than ryu because if all the reasons discussed. I have no issues giving him 4 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: Some of you guys want to sign guys to just sign them. 2019 was the first time Ryu has thrown over 180 IP since 2013, his first year in the league. Him going on the 10 day DL for fake injuries doesn't explain why he's thrown over 150 IP only 3x in his career, 2 of them coming in 2013 and 2014. The dude is ALWAYS hurt. Gambling 80 million dollars he's somehow going to reverse his career norm while being older is foolish. Wheeler had 1 big injury with set backs. It's not close to being the same as Ryu's history. Even with Ryu missing half of 2018, he still amassed 6.7 fWAR the last two seasons. Using a super conservative estimate of $8M per 1 fWAR, he's been worth ~$54M the last two seasons. The guy is good enough that he can definitely be worth his salary even if he averages 125 IP per year over the course of his contract (which is his career average). I don't want to sign guys just to sign them. The farthest thing. I want to sign Ryu because he is the best available SP (besides the guy we're never getting) on the market, and we need SP. I also think his market will be somewhat suppressed due to his injury history. The guy isn't going to come to the Sox and become an 180+ IP per season workhorse, but the Sox also don't necessarily need him to be that guy. Edited December 10, 2019 by ChiSox59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Even with Ryu missing half of 2018, he still amassed 6.7 fWAR the last two seasons. Using a super conservative estimate of $8M per 1 fWAR, he's been worth ~$54M the last two seasons. The guy is good enough that he can definitely be worth his salary even if he averages 125 IP per year over the course of his contract (which is his career average). I don't want to sign guys just to sign them. The farthest thing. I want to sign Ryu because he is the best available SP (besides the guy we're never getting) on the market, and we need SP. I also think his market will be somewhat suppressed due to his injury history. The guy isn't going to come to the Sox and become an 180+ IP per season workhorse, but the Sox also don't necessarily need him to be that guy. Man, I would fucking love him if he could just not be a fat injured shit. I think putting him in a rotation of all righty flamethrowers would add really needed balance as well. If Jerry said "Fuck it I'm dying soon anyways Lol" and decided to have a top 10 payroll I could stomach it. I just don't think he's ever going to have an Ilitch moment and not give a shit about payroll. 20 mil per for a guy not on the mound REALLY hurts the WSox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: Man, I would fucking love him if he could just not be a fat injured shit. I think putting him in a rotation of all righty flamethrowers would add really needed balance as well. If Jerry said "Fuck it I'm dying soon anyways Lol" and decided to have a top 10 payroll I could stomach it. I just don't think he's ever going to have an Ilitch moment and not give a shit about payroll. 20 mil per for a guy not on the mound REALLY hurts the WSox. So what's your plan then? Pay Dallas fucking Keuchel $18M AAV? Sign an extreme flyball pitcher in MadBum to come to the Southside of Chicago? Acquire the corpse of David Price for $33M AAV? The Sox have money to spend - they should be acquiring pitching on the FA market, not trading valuable pieces of the future for it. Edited December 10, 2019 by ChiSox59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: Man, I would fucking love him if he could just not be a fat injured shit. I think putting him in a rotation of all righty flamethrowers would add really needed balance as well. If Jerry said "Fuck it I'm dying soon anyways Lol" and decided to have a top 10 payroll I could stomach it. I just don't think he's ever going to have an Ilitch moment and not give a shit about payroll. 20 mil per for a guy not on the mound REALLY hurts the WSox. How many innings do you think Ryu pitches next year, if you had to guess? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: So what's your plan then? Pay Dallas fucking Keuchel $18M AAV? Sign an extreme flyball pitcher in MadBum to come to the Southside of Chicago? Acquire the corpse of David Price for $33M AAV? The Sox have money to spend - they should be acquiring pitching on the FA market, not trading valuable pieces of the future for it. I think Bum is 10x worse then gambling on Ryu. And I've stated multiple times on here if DFK is our major pitching aquisition I'd be seething with rage. I think we have to work out a trade. None of these pitchers left are worth anywhere near what the asking prices have been and outside of Ryu (IF* healthy****) they both look like really expensive #4's here. Hard pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said: How many innings do you think Ryu pitches next year, if you had to guess? Well he pitched 180 or 90 last year so idk? 110? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guys Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 22 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: Some of you guys want to sign guys to just sign them. 2019 was the first time Ryu has thrown over 180 IP since 2013, his first year in the league. Him going on the 10 day DL for fake injuries doesn't explain why he's thrown over 150 IP only 3x in his career, 2 of them coming in 2013 and 2014. The dude is ALWAYS hurt. Gambling 80 million dollars he's somehow going to reverse his career norm while being older is foolish. Wheeler had 1 big injury with set backs. It's not close to being the same as Ryu's history. This is what I think when Bumgarner and all the amazing things he did 5-10 years ago are brought up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: I think Bum is 10x worse then gambling on Ryu. And I've stated multiple times on here if DFK is our major pitching aquisition I'd be seething with rage. I think we have to work out a trade. None of these pitchers left are worth anywhere near what the asking prices have been and outside of Ryu (IF* healthy****) they both look like really expensive #4's here. Hard pass. Who is available via trade worth the acquisition cost? Blake Snell is the only guy, and idk if he's actually available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Blake Snell is not the only guy in baseball the Sox could trade for that could provide 3ish WAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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