Sox acquire Nomar Mazara for Steele Walker

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Castellanos has a career 797 OPS and is an awful defensive player.

Mazara has a career 754 OPS improving each year and a below average fielder.

 

Ironically, he didn't improve from 2018 to 2019 at all - if you account for the increase in offense around the league. His OPS+, league-adjusted, was 96 both years. And it went down from 2016 to 2017. So he's been treading water, with his head and nose below the water line. 

[Quin]

12 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I'd like to see who the platoon partner is, if it's not Leury.

Any cheap RH RFers on the market?

Avi.

[Balta1701]

Just now, sullythered said:

People are arguing in circles on this.  As with all things, there is nuance to this that keeps it from simply being "good" or "bad."  The Sox made a trade that sent a 23 year old middling prospect for a 25 year old replacement-level player who some people think has potential for a breakout season.  Even if he just stays a replacement-level player, that's like a 9 WAR improvement over RF last season, so in that regard, it was a good move.  If he somehow rises to his potential (which I feel is unlikely) it will have been a great move.

IF, however, this is the biggest post-Yasmani Grandal move that the Sox make this offseason, it will have been a huge disappointment.  Not just because of fan expectation, but what they, themselves, have been proudly boasting for all to hear.  If the "money is spent" and they add 2 starting pitchers, or a SP and a good RP, or some other combination of good players at need positions, then this will have been fine.  If, for some reason, they now stop pursuing the many options that are currently available in FA and trade, then this move looks bad.

The White Sox were -1.3 WAR in RF last year, Mazara with better health would have been 1. So no, it's a 2 WAR improvement if he stays below replacement level.

[BackDoorBreach]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Castellanos has a career 797 OPS and is an awful defensive player.

Mazara has a career 754 OPS improving each year and a below average fielder.

 

?? Castellanos isn't improving?  He hasn't had an OPS below 826 for 3 seasons.  He was TRASH his first couple years.  He ended this season with a 1000+ OPS in 50 games.  This isn't the conversation to have when your team is on the verge to compete.

[Ozzie for Manager]

Castellanos who many on here love was a .6 WAR through his 24 year old season.

Calhoun had 25 ABs in the majors through his 24 year old season.

Ozuna 5.8 WAR through his 24 year old season. 4.4  of that was in 1 year at the age of 23. His 24 year old season was .5 WAR, worse than Mazara's

Mazara is 1.8 WAR through his 24 year old season.

It is pretty reasonable to think that Mazara will improve on that number. I like the trade because you didn't give up much at all. Steele Walker is not going to be any better than a 4th outfielder most likely. He is doing OK at 1 year younger than Mazara and he was still a few years away. He is not that big so he wont have big power either. Now the Sox still need to make some moves for a SP and RPs. If they don't then this trade doesn't matter anyway.

[caulfield12]

My cousin who lives in Plano and watches nearly every Rangers’ game had this to say.

Rangers are a mess and have been since the blowup with Nolan Ryan and the new ownership that doesn't appear to have any money. Mazara will be an All-Star for the Sox. Another awful trade by Daniels. How much longer will they stay with this guy? His greatest trade was trading a HOFer for Andrus.

Edited December 11, 2019 by caulfield12

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Why are people concerned about saving 11 or 12 million dollars in AAV while sacrificing over 5x the production lol.

The last report that came out was the Tigers and Marlins were interested.  Both of those teams are in a deep rebuild.  And this genius GM finally outbid someone.

This has literally been explained to you over 100 times the last few weeks.  Signing Ozuna/Castellanos isn't about 2020 - its about 2 or 3 years down the road when they're vastly overpaid DHs stuck in RF.  Ozuna/Castellanos make the 2020 White Sox better than Mazara does.  But Mazara is basially on a 1 year deal, and we're not stuck with 2 DH in the OF for the half of the next decade.  

[sullythered]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox were -1.3 WAR in RF last year, Mazara with better health would have been 1. So no, it's a 2 WAR improvement if he stays below replacement level.

I was making a joke about how poor they were at the position.  I forgot how people talk here.  I should have said 200 point improvement in OPS, better?

Edited December 11, 2019 by sullythered

[The Sir]

13 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

I’m sure someone could come up with a list of highly touted 25 year old major leaguers who have done nothing in the league thus far that you wouldn’t want to acquire.

Sure, like Alen Hanson, who was highly touted and actually did nothing and whom you would seriously not want to acquire.

Nomar Mazara's "nothing" consists of four straight seasons of 19-20 homeruns, a .317-.323 OBP, and a .419-.469 SLG (that metric has improved each year). He'll be an old 24 year old on OD 2020. At worst, he'll put up a mid-.700s OPS at a position where we got mid-.500s last year. At best, he'll totally break out. Or if we shield him from LHP by playing Leury, he'll put up a mid-.800s OPS. All for the price of Steele Walker.

[BackDoorBreach]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

This has literally been explained to you over 100 times the last few weeks.  Signing Ozuna/Castellanos isn't about 2020 - its about 2 or 3 years down the road when they're vastly overpaid DHs stuck in RF.  Ozuna/Castellanos make the 2020 White Sox better than Mazara does.  But Mazara is basially on a 1 year deal, and we're not stuck with 2 DH in the OF for the half of the next decade.  

So we sign Joc Pederson for 100 million as a platoon bat next year when Springer gets locked up by the Astros and Mookie gets 350 million from not us?

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

This has literally been explained to you over 100 times the last few weeks.  Signing Ozuna/Castellanos isn't about 2020 - its about 2 or 3 years down the road when they're vastly overpaid DHs stuck in RF.  Ozuna/Castellanos make the 2020 White Sox better than Mazara does.  But Mazara is basially on a 1 year deal, and we're not stuck with 2 DH in the OF for the half of the next decade.  

The real problem isn’t Mazara.

It’s pitching.  If Minnesota makes the right move for Bumgarner, Ryu or Keuchel...it’s going to make it that much more difficult to overtake them before 2022/23.

Luckily, the Dodgers and Angels will likely take 2 of those 3.

Edited December 11, 2019 by caulfield12

[SoxFanForever]

Castellanos in his age 23 and 24 seasons is basically identical to Mazaro.  I'm not saying he will develop into what Castellanos is now but it isn't a stretch to think he eventually could get to where Nick is.

 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, The Sir said:

Sure, like Alen Hanson, who was highly touted and actually did nothing and whom you would seriously not want to acquire.

Nomar Mazara's "nothing" consists of four straight seasons of 19-20 homeruns, a .317-.323 OBP, and a .419-.469 SLG (that metric has improved each year). He'll be an old 24 year old on OD 2020. At worst, he'll put up a mid-.700s OPS at a position where we got mid-.500s last year. At best, he'll totally break out. Or if we shield him from LHP by playing Leury, he'll put up a mid-.800s OPS. All for the price of Steele Walker.

oof.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Top 20 prospects from Mazara's last year as a prospect:

2016 MLB Pipeline Prospect Rankings

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MLB Rank	Tm Rank	Player Name	Pos	Team Name	Ht	Wt	B-T	BornDate	Age	Place	HiLvl	Stat Years	MLB Years	Draft Information	Status	Current Org (Level)	Debut
1	1	Corey Seager	SS	Los Angeles Dodgers	6-4	205	L-R	1994-04-27	22	Kannapolis,North Carolina	MLB	2012-2019	2015-2019	2012- 1- 18-LAN	Active	Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB)	2015-09-03
2	1	Byron Buxton	OF	Minnesota Twins	6-2	190	R-R	1993-12-18	22	Baxley,Georgia	MLB	2012-2019	2015-2019	2012- 1- 2-MIN	Active	Minnesota Twins (MLB)	2015-06-14
3	1	Lucas Giolito	P	Washington Nationals	6-6	230	R-R	1994-07-14	21	Santa Monica,California	MLB	2012-2019	2016-2019	2012- 1- 16-WAS	Active	Chicago White Sox (MLB)	2016-06-28
4	2	Julio Urias	P	Los Angeles Dodgers	5-11	160	L-L	1996-08-12	19	Culiacan,Mexico	MLB	2013-2019	2016-2019	2012- UDFA-LAN	Active	Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB)	2016-05-27
5	1	JP Crawford	SS	Philadelphia Phillies	6-2	180	L-R	1995-01-11	21	Lakewood,California	MLB	2013-2019	2017-2019	2013- 1- 16-PHI	Active	Seattle Mariners (MLB)	2017-09-05
6	1	Orlando Arcia	SS	Milwaukee Brewers	6-0	165	R-R	1994-08-04	21	Anaco,Venezuela	MLB	2011-2019	2016-2019	2010- UDFA-MIL	Active	Milwaukee Brewers (MLB)	2016-08-02
7	1	Yoan Moncada	IF	Boston Red Sox	6-2	205	B-R	1995-05-27	21	Abreus,Cuba	MLB	2015-2019	2016-2019	2015- UDFA-BOS	Active	Chicago White Sox (MLB)	2016-09-02
8	1	Dansby Swanson	SS	Atlanta Braves	6-0	170	R-R	1994-02-11	22	Marietta,Georgia	MLB	2013-2019	2016-2019	2015- 1- 1-ARI	Active	Atlanta Braves (MLB)	2016-08-17
9	1	Joey Gallo	3B	Texas Rangers	6-5	205	L-R	1993-11-19	22	Las Vegas,Nevada	MLB	2012-2019	2015-2019	2012- 1- 39-TEX	Active	Texas Rangers (MLB)	2015-06-02
10	1	Tyler Glasnow	P	Pittsburgh Pirates	6-7	200	L-R	1993-08-23	22	Newhall,California	MLB	2012-2019	2016-2019	2011- 5- 152-PIT	Active	Tampa Bay Rays (MLB)	2016-07-07
11	2	Trea Turner	SS	Washington Nationals	6-2	160	R-R	1993-06-30	23	Lake Worth,Florida	MLB	2012-2019	2015-2019	2014- 1- 13-SDN	Active	Washington Nationals (MLB)	2015-08-21
12	1	Brendan Rodgers	SS	Colorado Rockies	6-0	180	R-R	1996-08-09	19	Lake Mary,Florida	AAA	2015-2019	2019-2019	2015- 1- 3-COL	Active	Colorado Rockies (MLB)	2019-05-17
13	1	Alex Reyes	P	St. Louis Cardinals	6-3	185	R-R	1994-08-29	21	Elizabeth,New Jersey	MLB	2013-2019	2016-2019	2012- UDFA-SLN	Minors	St. Louis Cardinals (AAA)	2016-08-09
14	1	Blake Snell	P	Tampa Bay Rays	6-4	180	L-L	1992-12-04	23	Seattle,Washington	MLB	2011-2019	2016-2019	2011- 1- 52-TBA	Active	Tampa Bay Rays (MLB)	2016-04-23
15	1	Steven Matz	P	New York Mets	6-2	192	R-L	1991-05-29	25	Stony Brook,New York	MLB	2012-2019	2015-2019	2009- 2- 72-NYN	Active	New York Mets (MLB)	2015-06-28
16	4	Lewis Brinson	OF	Texas Rangers	6-3	170	R-R	1994-05-08	22	Tamarac,Florida	MLB	2012-2019	2017-2019	2012- 1- 29-TEX	Active	Miami Marlins (MLB)	2017-06-11
17	2	Rafael Devers	3B	Boston Red Sox	6-0	195	L-R	1996-10-24	19	Sanchez,Dom Rep	MLB	2014-2019	2017-2019	2013- UDFA-BOS	Active	Boston Red Sox (MLB)	2017-07-25
18	2	Nomar Mazara	RF-OF	Texas Rangers	6-4	195	L-L	1995-04-26	21	Santo Domingo,Dom Rep	MLB	2012-2019	2016-2019	2011- UDFA-TEX	Active	Texas Rangers (MLB)	2016-04-10
19	2	Jose Berrios	P	Minnesota Twins	6-0	190	R-R	1994-05-27	22	Bayamon,Puerto Rico	MLB	2012-2019	2016-2019	2012- 1- 32-MIN	Active	Minnesota Twins (MLB)	2016-04-27
20	2	Austin Meadows	OF	Pittsburgh Pirates	6-2	195	L-L	1995-05-03	21	Atlanta,Georgia	MLB	2013-2019	2018-2019	2013- 1- 9-PIT	Active	Tampa Bay Rays (MLB)	2018-05-18

[ChiSox59]

Just now, BackDoorBreach said:

So we sign Joc Pederson for 100 million as a platoon bat next year when Springer gets locked up by the Astros and Mookie gets 350 million from not us?

Lol. Everything that could go wrong will go wrong, yes absolutely that will happen.  There is also Michael Brantley.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, SoxFanForever said:

Castellanos in his age 23 and 24 seasons is basically identical to Mazaro.  I'm not saying he will develop into what Castellanos is now but it isn't a stretch to think he eventually could get to where Nick is.

 

 

Castellanos was 10% better so they're not really the exact same.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

This has literally been explained to you over 100 times the last few weeks.  Signing Ozuna/Castellanos isn't about 2020 - its about 2 or 3 years down the road when they're vastly overpaid DHs stuck in RF.  Ozuna/Castellanos make the 2020 White Sox better than Mazara does.  But Mazara is basially on a 1 year deal, and we're not stuck with 2 DH in the OF for the half of the next decade.  

Signing Ozuna/Castellanos is about 2020 and 2021 - in 2021, Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez all start hitting arbitration, meaning that just keeping those 3 guys around adds $20 million to the payroll each year. By 2022, with Abreu and Grandal also on the roster, the White Sox will have $110 million committed to their payroll just for their current players unless they are trading guys away to save money.

If they do not make the playoffs in either 2020 or 2021 such that they don't see attendance growth, they will be hitting their payroll limits just holding onto people. 

[palehose05]

Mazara's main issue is is his career 49% ground ball rate, but he still is consistently 20 HR per year. In 2019, he hit the ball at a 35.5% medium contact and 45.3% hard contact rate. That was with a lingering thumb issue all year. He hits the ball hard, but the problem is half the time it is in the ground. If the Sox can help him fix that ground ball rate, even just 10%, all other offensive stats will jump significantly, not to mention maybe 30+ HR's.

I've also added a graphic of Mazara's career stats against the AL Central and the Cubs.

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by palehose05
Correction

[chitownsportsfan]

Well if any other teams were convinced Mazara is on the verge of a breakout (you know teams with much better scouting than Chicago) how come nobody was willing to pony up more than their equivalent of Steele Walker?

Crickets.  Because he sucks.  Because nobody else wanted to take this guy off Texas' hands for any assets other than cash and A ball relievers.

[Moan4Yoan]

6 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

?? Castellanos isn't improving?  He hasn't had an OPS below 826 for 3 seasons.  He was TRASH his first couple years.  He ended this season with a 1000+ OPS in 50 games.  This isn't the conversation to have when your team is on the verge to compete.

It’s just a hot take by someone who defends the FO’s cheapness.

[TaylorStSox]

14 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Ozuna is a two-time all-star with a 6 WAR season *two years ago.*  If we're willing to project Mazara to produce beyond anything he's ever achieved before, seems only fair to be willing to project alternative players to perform at a level they have actually achieved.

Ozuna also has a bad shoulder. My issue is more with Castellanos anyway. They fans that have a hard on for Castellanos are crying, but it's not like he's really good. 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

So we sign Joc Pederson for 100 million as a platoon bat next year when Springer gets locked up by the Astros and Mookie gets 350 million from not us?

That’s not going to happen, either.  A platoon outfielder shouldn’t be getting any more than Castellanos or Ozuna.

That said, if those two guys are off the market, an aging Brantley and Pederson will be the only non-trade options.  And Brantleys not especially well-suited for RF, either.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Sure, like Alen Hanson, who was highly touted and actually did nothing and whom you would seriously not want to acquire.

Nomar Mazara's "nothing" consists of four straight seasons of 19-20 homeruns, a .317-.323 OBP, and a .419-.469 SLG (that metric has improved each year). He'll be an old 24 year old on OD 2020. At worst, he'll put up a mid-.700s OPS at a position where we got mid-.500s last year. At best, he'll totally break out. Or if we shield him from LHP by playing Leury, he'll put up a mid-.800s OPS. All for the price of Steele Walker.

The White Sox got a .636 OPS out of RF last year. 

Somehow we were also #2 in the league in baserunning performance out of RF. I'll leave it to others to figure that out.

[BackDoorBreach]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol. Everything that could go wrong will go wrong, yes absolutely that will happen.  There is also Michael Brantley.

I'm definitely retarded for not remembering 34 year old Michael Brantley as our major RF aquisition.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Of the top 20 who were Mazara's age or younger, here is how that breaks down:

Urias - still hasn't taken off yet, but still talented.

Gio - First good year last year

Yoan - First good year last year

Arcia and Crawford - Still waiting to see more from both

Brendan Rogers - Terrible big league numbers but still top prospect

Alex Reyes - Still looking for his first good year

Devers - First good year was last year (in fact, Devers was a 1 WAR player the same time as Mazara pretty much)

Austin Meadows - first good year last year

Mazara isn't exactly out of hope. Most of these guys had their first productive year last year; Mazara could easily be that guy this year.