2020 Rotation Projected WAR

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

On 12/15/2019 at 7:18 AM, Dominikk85 said:

Wouldn't it be more accurate to use steamer for all players? 

C grandal 4.7

1b abreu 1.8

2b madrigal 1.7

SS anderson 2.0

3b moncada 3.8

Lf Jimenez 2.5

Cf robert 2.3

Rf mazara 1.4

Dh mccann 0.2 

That would be 20.4 war

 

Mccann will be worth less at dh but if vaughn comes up in june he could be worth 1.5 war the rest of the way.

 

So that could be about 22 war which is still pretty good especially if you get another 2-3 war from the bench which would come out at 25 then.

25 war would have ranked 6th in the al last year behind the red sox and ahead of the rays.

How do the current projections look for the pitching staff and where would it rank in the AL? I imagine they’d be in the bottom 5 in the league without any further moves of significance.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

How do the current projections look for the pitching staff and where would it rank in the AL? I imagine they’d be in the bottom 5 in the league without any further moves of significance.

The White Sox were actually 9th in the AL in fWAR last year for pitching at 12.3. They needed to find about 6 WAR over last year to push this team into the top 6ish of the AL in pitching WAR.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The White Sox were actually 9th in the AL in fWAR last year for pitching at 12.3. They needed to find about 6 WAR over last year to push this team into the top 6ish of the AL in pitching WAR.

I’m asking based on current projections. How does the current pitching staff project compared to what they produced last season? Still around 9th in the league?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

As it stands today, even if the Sox brought back a Nova type to fill the #5 spot, it appears the pitching staff as a whole is projected to be worse In 2020 than they were in 2019. There are plenty of reasons for optimism with the everyday lineup but all hope is lost with this pitching staff. It’s why it is simply incredible and frustrating that they are not investing significantly in free agent pitching to push this team to the next level.

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

As it stands today, even if the Sox brought back a Nova type to fill the #5 spot, it appears the pitching staff as a whole is projected to be worse In 2020 than they were in 2019. There are plenty of reasons for optimism with the everyday lineup but all hope is lost with this pitching staff. It’s why it is simply incredible and frustrating that they are not investing significantly in free agent pitching to push this team to the next level.

How do you figure? 83 starts were made by Nova, Detwiler, Covey, Banuelos, Santana, Despaigne, Fulmer and Santiago.  

Cease was just dipping his toe into MLB and overall wasn't very good.  Zero starts from Kopech.  Only 7 from Rodon.  Even if you project basically the same thing out of Lopez, and even Giolito to take a step back, its tough not to improve.

Even signing two of Alex Wood, Gio Gonzalez, Tijuan Walker, Wade Miley and Collin McHugh would be a huge improvement over hte cast of characters that made over half of starts for the Sox last season.  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

How do you figure? 83 starts were made by Nova, Detwiler, Covey, Banuelos, Santana, Despaigne, Fulmer and Santiago.  

Cease was just dipping his toe into MLB and overall wasn't very good.  Zero starts from Kopech.  Only 7 from Rodon.  Even if you project basically the same thing out of Lopez, and even Giolito to take a step back, its tough not to improve.

Even signing two of Alex Wood, Gio Gonzalez, Tijuan Walker, Wade Miley and Collin McHugh would be a huge improvement over hte cast of characters that made over half of starts for the Sox last season.  

Steamer is projecting regression from majority of the staff minus Cease. Whether or not their projections are accurate is another question altogether but that’s what it’s showing.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

How do you figure? 83 starts were made by Nova, Detwiler, Covey, Banuelos, Santana, Despaigne, Fulmer and Santiago.  

Cease was just dipping his toe into MLB and overall wasn't very good.  Zero starts from Kopech.  Only 7 from Rodon.  Even if you project basically the same thing out of Lopez, and even Giolito to take a step back, its tough not to improve.

Even signing two of Alex Wood, Gio Gonzalez, Tijuan Walker, Wade Miley and Collin McHugh would be a huge improvement over hte cast of characters that made over half of starts for the Sox last season.  

and every one of the pitchers you listed in the last paragraph is projected to produce less than the 2.0 fWAR produced by Nova last season.

Edited December 16, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Steamer is projecting regression from majority of the staff minus Cease. Whether or not their projections are accurate is another question altogether but that’s what it’s showing.

So Giolito and Lopez?  Because those are the only two guys that pitched in 2019 that will be on the staff again in 2020.  I don't really see Lopez regressing further.  I could see Giolito taking a step back I guess, but I think that will be more than made up from by strides from Cease, Kopech making 15-20 starts, getting something from Rodon, and whoever we sign for the 4-5 spots.   

[ChiSox59]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

and every one of the pitchers you listed in the last paragraph is projected to produce less than the 2.0 fWAR produced by Nova last season.

fWAR is a counting stat. Nova nade 34 starts last year.  Obviously durability matters, but the guy had a 1.5 WHIP.  He won't be very hard to replace.  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

So Giolito and Lopez?  Because those are the only two guys that pitched in 2019 that will be on the staff again in 2020.  I don't really see Lopez regressing further.  I could see Giolito taking a step back I guess, but I think that will be more than made up from by strides from Cease, Kopech making 15-20 starts, getting something from Rodon, and whoever we sign for the 4-5 spots.   

Bullpen too - Colome, Bummer, Marshall, etc.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

fWAR is a counting stat. Nova nade 34 starts last year.  Obviously durability matters, but the guy had a 1.5 WHIP.  He won't be very hard to replace.  

Easier said than done these days. Would it really surprise you to see the Sox sign Alex Wood and for him to have a 2017 Derek Holland type season in 2020? Wouldn’t surprise me.

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Easier said than done these days. Would it really surprise you to see the Sox sign Alex Wood and for him to have a 2017 Derek Holland type season in 2020? Wouldn’t surprise me.

No, it wouldn't really surprise me.  But I am not going to get too worked up about trying to replace Ivan fuckin' Nova.  He isn't good.  They need to sign 2 SP - we're in agreement.  I am confident that they will be improvements over the 49 starts made by Detwiler, Covey, Banuelos, Santana, Despaigne, Fulmer and Santiago.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

26 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

As it stands today, even if the Sox brought back a Nova type to fill the #5 spot, it appears the pitching staff as a whole is projected to be worse In 2020 than they were in 2019. There are plenty of reasons for optimism with the everyday lineup but all hope is lost with this pitching staff. It’s why it is simply incredible and frustrating that they are not investing significantly in free agent pitching to push this team to the next level.

I have no idea how you figure this; I guess if you're assessing 3 starters and a BP vs 7 starters and a Bpen you get that outcome. 

The Sox are in a better position than they were entering last year for the sole reason that they added Cease and he replaced some complete garbage that was out there instead of him.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I have no idea how you figure this; I guess if you're assessing 3 starters and a BP vs 7 starters and a Bpen you get that outcome. 

The Sox are in a better position than they were entering last year for the sole reason that they added Cease and he replaced some complete garbage that was out there instead of him.

Like I said, just check the Steamer projections. It’s all there.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

17 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

So Giolito and Lopez?  Because those are the only two guys that pitched in 2019 that will be on the staff again in 2020.  I don't really see Lopez regressing further.  I could see Giolito taking a step back I guess, but I think that will be more than made up from by strides from Cease, Kopech making 15-20 starts, getting something from Rodon, and whoever we sign for the 4-5 spots.   

No one should be using a STEAMER projection for Lucas Giolito. If you want to factor in his regression as being a concern, then use ZIPs number. If you think Steamer has a case for gio's regression, I'll take Gio under his 4.35 projected FIP for the max you're willing to take.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No one should be using a STEAMER projection for Lucas Giolito. If you want to factor in his regression as being a concern, then use ZIPs number. If you think Steamer has a case for gio's regression, I'll take Gio under his 4.35 projected FIP for the max you're willing to take.

I think you're quoting the wrong guy.  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

No, it wouldn't really surprise me.  But I am not going to get too worked up about trying to replace Ivan fuckin' Nova.  He isn't good.  They need to sign 2 SP - we're in agreement.  I am confident that they will be improvements over the 49 starts made by Detwiler, Covey, Banuelos, Santana, Despaigne, Fulmer and Santiago.  

Based on the projected regression from the rest of the staff, the Sox need to still sign to sign two starters that significantly outproduce what they received from Nova and the group of garbage you reference above. I’m not sold that digging in the garbage pile again with guys like Wood, Walker, etc will lead to results that significantly outproduce Nova + group of garbage.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Like I said, just check the Steamer projections. It’s all there.

Again, you're using STEAMER to project a young player with one year of success under his belt. Steamer greatly weights the past three years of results, and if you can't notice the change that Giolito made that made him a different pitcher, and you want to cite STEAMER and defer to something as an authority at least understand it.

If you think every single White Sox starter is going to get worse - despite being young and developing - then sure, you go ahead and use your number. 

I always find it funny when people say people can't expected improvement from everyone all while citing regression from everyone.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I think you're quoting the wrong guy.  

Correct; my bad.

[Dominikk85]

 Streamer Starters

 

Giolito 3.2

Reylo 1.8

Kopech 1.4

Cease 2.2

Rodon 0 war

 

Not Sure why they say zero on rodon but lets assume 2 by either rodon or a guy they buy.

 

 

That would come around 10 war. If we assume another two from the 6th+ guy and 3.5 from the pen that would be around 15 war.

That would be about 3 better than last year and 8th in the AL.

That wouldn't be enough to make the post season so I think they need to get both a good starter and a back end reliever.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Dominikk85

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Based on the projected regression from the rest of the staff, the Sox need to still sign to sign two starters that significantly outproduce what they received from Nova and the group of garbage you reference above. I’m not sold that digging in the garbage pile again with guys like Wood, Walker, etc will lead to results that significantly outproduce Nova + group of garbage.

Please stop citing a number you don't even understand as authoritative reasoning behind your point. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Please stop citing a number you don't even understand as authoritative reasoning behind your point. 

Stop saying I don’t understand it. If you don’t think there is a decent chance for regression and/or injury from Giolito I’m not sure what to tell you. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

The fact is the White Sox pitching staff is mediocre at best and VERY thin. If any one of Giolito, Cease, Lopez goes down with an injury we are back to the Covey and Fulmer types again. There’s zero depth even if they bring in two reclamation projects like Wood and Walker.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Fair projections:

Giolito 4.5 (this is light)

Lopez 2.3

Cease (165ip) 2

Kopech 1.2 (100 IP)

Nova replacement 2.0

Random 80IP starter replace .8

=12.8

That is a very reasonable projection and expectation and the numbers that I have for the Sox rotation as fo now - plugging in a league average starter for Nova.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The fact is the White Sox pitching staff is mediocre at best and VERY thin. If any one of Giolito, Cease, Lopez goes down with an injury we are back to the Covey and Fulmer types again. There’s zero depth even if they bring in two reclamation projects like Wood and Walker.

If any team loses keys pieces of their rotation, they're going to have depth issues.  Most teams don't just have a stockpile of arms sitting around waiting.