2020 Rotation Projected WAR

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Stop saying I don’t understand it. If you don’t think there is a decent chance for regression and/or injury from Giolito I’m not sure what to tell you. 

Sure, ZIPS projects Giolito to have a 4.2 WAR next year - if you think a reasonable O/U for Giolitos FIP is 4.33 I'll take the under (given that his ERA O/U will fall somewhere between 3.35-3.5) because there's no way the O/U on his FIP is anywhere near the 4.33 STEAMER is projecting. That's some regression. Also, I have no idea why you "expect" regression from anyone that is young and in his second year of a significant mechanical change. You shouldn't "expect" regression anymore than you should "expect" growth from a young player. 

You very clearly don't understand it since you're using a projection system that is weighing Giolito's 3 year history as some be-all-end-all when the two years prior to last year are very clearly career outliers for Giolito who ran into some issues.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Fair projections:

Giolito 4.5 (this is light)

Lopez 2.3

Cease (165ip) 2

Kopech 1.2 (100 IP)

Nova replacement 2.0

Random 80IP starter replace .8

=12.8

That is a very reasonable projection and expectation and the numbers that I have for the Sox rotation as fo now - plugging in a league average starter for Nova.

Two questions. Who is the Nova replacement projected for 2.0 fWAR and who replaces one of those guys when they inevitably miss starts due to injury (e.g. long man)?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Two questions. Who is the Nova replacement projected for 2.0 fWAR and who replaces one of those guys when they inevitably miss starts due to injury (e.g. long man)?

Are you insinuating that it would/will be difficult for the White Sox to fine a replacement for Ivan Nova?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sure, ZIPS projects Giolito to have a 4.2 WAR next year - if you think a reasonable O/U for Giolitos FIP is 4.33 I'll take the under (given that his ERA O/U will fall somewhere between 3.35-3.5. That's some regression. Also, I have no idea why you "expect" regression from anyone that is young and in his second year of a significant mechanical change. You shouldn't "expect" regression anymore than you should "expect" growth from a young player. 

You very clearly don't understand it since you're using a projection system that is weighing Giolito's 3 year history as some be-all-end-all when the two years prior to last year are very clearly career outliers for Giolito who ran into some issues.

Show me a single projection that indicates Giolito will exceed his 5.1 fWAR from last season. I’m not saying he can’t do or won’t do it but I can’t find a projection that says he is likely to.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Are you insinuating that it would/will be difficult for the White Sox to fine a replacement for Ivan Nova?

Based on recent dumpster diving 5th starter FA signings, yes. Unless of course they actually decide to spend money to sign a legitimate starter. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Show me a single projection that indicates Giolito will exceed his 5.1 fWAR from last season. I’m not saying he can’t do or won’t do it but I can’t find a projection that says he is likely to.

Player Projection models, by nature, error on the side of conservative. 

While you attempt to change the narrative, I am explaining to you that using STEAMER as the main projection model for Giolito is just disingenuous given the nature of what Steamer uses to make its projections. You can't cite Steamer consistently as you've done, and then just disregard that it projects Giolito to have a FIP a full run higher than this past year because it is weighting a Giolito from two years ago that is simply not the same guy. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Player Projection models, by nature, error on the side of conservative. 

While you attempt to change the narrative, I am explaining to you that using STEAMER as the main projection model for Giolito is just disingenuous given the nature of what Steamer uses to make its projections. You can't cite Steamer consistently as you've done, and then just disregard that it projects Giolito to have a FIP a full run higher than this past year because it is weighting a Giolito from two years ago that is simply not the same guy. 

I understand but if I’m a betting man I’m taking the under on Giolito hitting 5.1 fWAR again in 2020. I’m a big fan of Giolito but to expect him to exceed what he did last season is foolish imo. Dismiss the projections all you want but the starting staff is ultra thin right now and if they go dumpster diving for one or two starters this winter, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the entire staff as a whole is worse in 2020 than it was in 2019 (again, what have they done to improve the bullpen?)

Edited December 16, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I understand but if I’m a betting man I’m taking the under on Giolito hitting 5.1 fWAR again in 2020. I’m a big fan of Giolito but to expect him to exceed what he did last season is foolish imo. Dismiss the projections all you want but the starting staff is ultra thin right now and if they go dumpster diving for one or two starters this winter, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the entire staff as a whole is worse in 2020 than it was in 2019 (again, what have they done to improve the bullpen?)

You didnt cite 5.1.

You cited 3.3.

Why is it foolish to expect a player to improve though? A guy like giolito would be a prime example of a player who you could argue should grow. He had no mechanics last year and it was his first year of success. 

I'm not dismissing anything; I'm saying I dont use Steamer as my primary projection system for young players as I find it to be better at projecting established players than young/unproven player.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You didnt cite 5.1.

You cited 3.3.

Why is it foolish to expect a player to improve though? A guy like giolito would be a prime example of a player who you could argue should grow. He had no mechanics last year and it was his first year of success. 

I'm not dismissing anything; I'm saying I dont use Steamer as my primary projection system for young players as I find it to be better at projecting established players than young/unproven player.

I cited regression from last season and steamer as one of many projections available supporting it. I agree that 3.3 is certainly on the low end but it think there is a less than 50% chance he meets or exceeds 5.1 in 2020. So, again, I’m expecting some regression. I expect improvement from Cease and Lopez to be more or less the same guy he’s been the last 2+ seasons. What’s left after that?? Banking on a full recovery and immediate impact from the likes of Kopech and Rodon? Where’s the depth? How has the bullpen improved? It’s bleak right now and FA options are lessening by the day.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I cited regression from last season and steamer as one of many projections available supporting it. I agree that 3.3 is certainly on the low end but it think there is a less than 50% chance he meets or exceeds 5.1 in 2020. So, again, I’m expecting some regression. I expect improvement from Cease and Lopez to be more or less the same guy he’s been the last 2+ seasons. What’s left after that?? Banking on a full recovery and immediate impact from the likes of Kopech and Rodon? Where’s the depth? How has the bullpen improved? It’s bleak right now and FA options are lessening by the day.

You just gotta believe they will signor trade for some more pitchers that can do a decent job among everyone out there . Relax a little bit. Belief is all about faith so have some faith.

[ChiSox1917]

8 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Based on the projected regression from the rest of the staff, the Sox need to still sign to sign two starters that significantly outproduce what they received from Nova and the group of garbage you reference above. I’m not sold that digging in the garbage pile again with guys like Wood, Walker, etc will lead to results that significantly outproduce Nova + group of garbage.

Steamer isn't a good tool to project young players

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 hours ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Steamer isn't a good tool to project young players

Not everyone on the pitching staff is young and the youngest member (Cease) is projected to improve from 2019. The bullpen mostly consists of veterans that have been in the league for several years. Cordero is probably the biggest unknown in the bullpen at this point.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

15 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

 Streamer Starters

 

Giolito 3.2

Reylo 1.8

Kopech 1.4

Cease 2.2

Rodon 0 war

 

Not Sure why they say zero on rodon but lets assume 2 by either rodon or a guy they buy.

 

 

That would come around 10 war. If we assume another two from the 6th+ guy and 3.5 from the pen that would be around 15 war.

That would be about 3 better than last year and 8th in the AL.

That wouldn't be enough to make the post season so I think they need to get both a good starter and a back end reliever.

And that’s assuming the starter they sign is viable rather than a Derek Holland or Ervin Santana type. It’s also assuming relatively good health from the guys slotted in. If Kopech has a setback or, god forbid, Giolito or Cease miss an extended period due to injury things could easily end up worse than 2019. Signing just one 5th starter type this offseason would be a far worse failure than missing on Machado last winter.

[Balta1701]

15 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

That would come around 10 war. If we assume another two from the 6th+ guy and 3.5 from the pen that would be around 15 war.

That would be about 3 better than last year and 8th in the AL.

That wouldn't be enough to make the post season so I think they need to get both a good starter and a back end reliever.

FWIW, last year the White Sox bullpen produced 2.7 fWAR, so as written you've just assumed a substantial upgrade to the bullpen (or more innings pitched by the bullpen - which would reduce the total from the starters). 

[Chicago White Sox]

7 hours ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Steamer isn't a good tool to project young players

Yup

[TheFutureIsNear]

22 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And that’s assuming the starter they sign is viable rather than a Derek Holland or Ervin Santana type. It’s also assuming relatively good health from the guys slotted in. If Kopech has a setback or, god forbid, Giolito or Cease miss an extended period due to injury things could easily end up worse than 2019. Signing just one 5th starter type this offseason would be a far worse failure than missing on Machado last winter.

Lol come on now...I get the frustration but this is ridiculous. 

It sucks, but the Sox aren’t going to be competing for a WS again next year. Knowing that info I can’t see why anyone would be so upset about not signing mediocre free agents. Cleary they will fill the rotation with someone. Does it rally make you fee better watching the Sox win 78 games with someone like Wade Miley vs 74 wins with someone else?

b**** about the front office being cheap and not putting a real contender on the field all you want, but this angst over not signing insignificant free agents is crazy to me. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

25 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Lol come on now...I get the frustration but this is ridiculous. 

It sucks, but the Sox aren’t going to be competing for a WS again next year. Knowing that info I can’t see why anyone would be so upset about not signing mediocre free agents. Cleary they will fill the rotation with someone. Does it rally make you fee better watching the Sox win 78 games with someone like Wade Miley vs 74 wins with someone else?

b**** about the front office being cheap and not putting a real contender on the field all you want, but this angst over not signing insignificant free agents is crazy to me. 

It’s not ridiculous. It was clear more than a year ago that this team’s greatest need was pitching. That much was readily apparent and then only further compounded with major injuries to Kopech, Dunning, and Rodon. It would have been extremely foolish to allocate $30M+ AAV to a player like Machado for a team that operates under a constrained budget on an annual basis and when infield was already the organization’s greatest strength.
 

I’ve been saying for two years now that as much $$$ as possible should be allocated towards the pitching staff. And yet here we are two offseasons later without a single significant FA signing to supplement the starting pitching staff. It’s absurd.

And I agree with you that it is pointless to sign two 5th starter types at this point in the offseason but they’ve had plenty of opportunities to sign one or two Tier 2 guys over the last year plus. Next winter’s FA SP crop doesn’t look any better, that’s for sure. What are they waiting for?

Edited December 17, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Thought this article was relevant;

https://www.soxmachine.com/2019/12/18/zips-projections-are-where-white-soxs-growth-weaknesses-collide/

[jasonxctf]

Steamer is also projecting Rodon to pitch 1 inning in 2020, and give up 1 run and somehow have a 4.75ERA. Not sure how that is mathematically possible.   

[wegner]

4 minutes ago, jasonxctf said:

Steamer is also projecting Rodon to pitch 1 inning in 2020, and give up 1 run and somehow have a 4.75ERA. Not sure how that is mathematically possible.   

C'mon now Jason.  It is the offseason, must I try to figure out SoxMath here too?

[Jack Parkman]

Projections are notoriously bad the season after a player has a breakout. Given their prospect pedigree, I'd expect Giolito to have ~4.5-5.0 WAR and Moncada to have 5.0-5.5 WAR. 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I take back everything I said! Didn’t think Jerry and the boys had it in them, now go get a DH and RP. Go Sox!!!

Edited December 22, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Dominikk85]

Update with projections:

Giolito 3.2

Keuchel 2.7

Cease 2.2

Kopech 1.4

Gio 1.3

 

This also means you probably get positive war from your 6th and 7th starter plus you have some upside if rodon comes back but you don't really need him. 

Basically rodon and reylo are just wild cards at this point, but of course an injury can always happen and you can put some guys in the pen.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Dominikk85 said:

Update with projections:

Giolito 3.2

Keuchel 2.7

Cease 2.2

Kopech 1.4

Gio 1.3

 

This also means you probably get positive war from your 6th and 7th starter plus you have some upside if rodon comes back but you don't really need him. 

Basically rodon and reylo are just wild cards at this point, but of course an injury can always happen and you can put some guys in the pen.

I didn’t think they’d pull it off the way things were headed this offseason but signing Keuchel was so very desperately needed if they wanted any shot at contending in 2020. I still think the starting staff is average overall but average is better than what they’ve had in recent years and at least now there’s a bit of depth as well.

[pcq]

Staff allowed 141 HR at GRF 97 on the road lol. Wonder if they are checking in on Nova.