2020-21 Free Agents (yuck!)

[caulfield12]

Found this doing some research, the dollar figures are probably too low, but it's interesting nonetheless as a starting point for discussion.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agent-rankings-way-too-early-2020-21-free-agency-predictions-including-where-mookie-betts-and-others-wind-up/

#3 has a write-up that will annoy Sox fans.   The numbers for Joc Pederson will surprise some, as well.

Basically, you have Stroman, Bauer, Paxton, Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray, Lester and Mike Minor as the cream of the crop.  You also have Tanaka (KW gets his man, eventually??), Arrieta and Jose Quintana.  Ten choices.   And not all of these guys are even going to be available on the market at this time next year.   Lester or Morton could retire, for example.

Everyone here pretty much hates Trevor Bauer, but he makes the most sense on a one-year deal.  Paxton has obviously been injured frequently, but we need a LH, and both he and Robbie Ray are the two best choices there.  Obviously, Quintana, as well.   Stroman will probably be the Zack Wheeler of next year's class if he has a really strong season.  Either him or Bauer.

It should also be noted that the bullpen pretty much has options "ROCK AND A HARD PLACE."

 

Notable free agents for 2020-21
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto, Mike Zunino, Yadier Molina
First base: C.J. Cron, Yuli Gurriel
Second base: Cesar Hernandez (already a FA), Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy (mutual option)
Third base: Justin Turner, Zack Cozart, Jake Lamb
Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Villar, Marcus Semien, Jurickson Profar
Outfield: Mookie Betts, George Springer, Yoenis Cespedes, David Peralta, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton (opt-out)
Starting pitchers: Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta (club option), Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana
Relievers: Blake Treinen, Alex Colome, Andrew Miller (vesting option)

 

[hi8is]

There are only three dudes there who I would want.

One isn’t coming here.

One has question marks the size of a trash can.

And the last probably is a lock as our fifth starter next year.

[caulfield12]

Maybe if we have a "Sox Mini-Drone Giveaway Night" for Bauer?
That can't possible go wrong, can it?

It also wouldn't be shocking to see Tanaka retire, go back to Japan or take one full year off for surgery recovery and then one final go at it with a contending team in 2021.

 

[soxfan49]

No way Bauer takes a 1 year deal

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

No way Bauer takes a 1 year deal

He has consistently maintained the last half decade that this is his stated preference in terms of how he prepares for each season.  We'll see if logic wins out, assuming he comes off a very strong season in 2020.

 

The Rangers can likely be crossed off the list of potential Ryu suitors after acquiring Kluber, but the Blue Jays may still face stiff competition (for Ryu/Keuchel). The Dodgers, Twins, Angels, White Sox, Reds, Braves, Cardinals and Padres are among the other clubs that could still be in the market for a starting pitcher.

Although Toronto has a strong core of young position players in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., the team's ability to bolster its rotation could be the deciding factor in how soon it returns to contention.

Toronto has added Chase Anderson and Tanner Roark already this offseason, but landing another starter remains a priority for the up-and-coming club. The Blue Jays are unlikely to be a serious contender until 2021, but next year's crop of free-agent starting pitchers projects to be much weaker. As a result, Toronto could strike a year early.

www.mlb.com

[joejoesox]

Sign Realmuto, fuck it

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

Sign Realmuto, fuck it

At least THAT'S a strategy, of a sort.

Corner the world market on top MLB catchers and exploit it (by trading for pitching).   Hold Collins back for one more year, extract the highest possible return for McCann unless it becomes more rational to hold onto him if the team is contending still in July.

Of course, that requires overpaying Realmuto by 15-25% because why would he want to go to the White Sox and share time with Grandal unless there was a plan for them to both share time at catcher an DH (which wouldn't work with Abreu/Vaughn also blocking that spot in the future.)

Edited December 17, 2019 by caulfield12

[BackDoorBreach]

39 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

No way Bauer takes a 1 year deal

He has said numerous times he only wants to take a series of 1 year deals.

[BackDoorBreach]

This is why what they did in RF still makes me seethe.

We aren't paying Betts 300+ million so scratch him off.

I would be shocked if Springer doesn't get extended.

So then we bid against numerous other teams for Joc and just hope he signs here.  That works really well for us.

Instead of doing all this we could have just given Ozuna or Castellanos 18 million AAV and had a meaningful upgrade.

Edited December 17, 2019 by BackDoorBreach

[caulfield12]

32 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

This is why what they did in RF still makes me seethe.

We aren't paying Betts 300+ million do scratch him off.

I would be shocked if Springer doesn't get extended.

So then we bid against numerous other teams for Joc and just hope he signs here.  That works really well for us.

Instead of doing all this we could have just given Ozuna or Castellanos 18 million AAV and had a meaningful upgrade.

$60+ million is a lot for a straight platoon outfielder, especially not on one of the corners.

Fwiw, they had Springer to the Giants, but he's actually from the East Coast, Connecticut to be exact.  I guess the theory being that eventually they had to spend big money again, because, well, they're one of the top 6-8 franchises in baseball and there's so much money now in the San Francisco area in terms of corporate sponsors and deep-pocketed fans.

[soxfan49]

38 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

He has said numerous times he only wants to take a series of 1 year deals.

The guy is weird but he won't take 1 year, $25M if a team offers 8 years, $240M

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

I'd be happy with (in order):

1. Stroman
2. Ray
3. Paxton

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I'd be happy with (in order):

1. Stroman
2. Ray
3. Paxton

Do we really think the Yankees are going to let Paxton go that easily if he has a really good year?  Maybe, but Tanaka would also be off the books, along with Sabathia from this past season.  If they can clear Happ for salary relief, they can carve out a hole in the budget for Paxton, theoretically.

At least we do know Stroman and Paxton can pitch in the AL, so there's that.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Do we really think the Yankees are going to let Paxton go that easily if he has a really good year?  Maybe, but Tanaka would also be off the books, along with Sabathia from this past season.  If they can clear Happ for salary relief, they can carve out a hole in the budget for Paxton, theoretically.

At least we do know Stroman and Paxton can pitch in the AL, so there's that.

I didn't realize they have that much money coming off the books, so that probably means they will keep him. If for some reason he was available, I would hope the Sox are all over him.

[he gone.]

12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Found this doing some research, the dollar figures are probably too low, but it's interesting nonetheless as a starting point for discussion.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agent-rankings-way-too-early-2020-21-free-agency-predictions-including-where-mookie-betts-and-others-wind-up/

#3 has a write-up that will annoy Sox fans.   The numbers for Joc Pederson will surprise some, as well.

Basically, you have Stroman, Bauer, Paxton, Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray, Lester and Mike Minor as the cream of the crop.  You also have Tanaka (KW gets his man, eventually??), Arrieta and Jose Quintana.  Ten choices.   And not all of these guys are even going to be available on the market at this time next year.   Lester or Morton could retire, for example.

Everyone here pretty much hates Trevor Bauer, but he makes the most sense on a one-year deal.  Paxton has obviously been injured frequently, but we need a LH, and both he and Robbie Ray are the two best choices there.  Obviously, Quintana, as well.   Stroman will probably be the Zack Wheeler of next year's class if he has a really strong season.  Either him or Bauer.

It should also be noted that the bullpen pretty much has options "ROCK AND A HARD PLACE."

 

Notable free agents for 2020-21
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto, Mike Zunino, Yadier Molina
First base: C.J. Cron, Yuli Gurriel
Second base: Cesar Hernandez (already a FA), Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy (mutual option)
Third base: Justin Turner, Zack Cozart, Jake Lamb
Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Villar, Marcus Semien, Jurickson Profar
Outfield: Mookie Betts, George Springer, Yoenis Cespedes, David Peralta, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton (opt-out)
Starting pitchers: Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta (club option), Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana
Relievers: Blake Treinen, Alex Colome, Andrew Miller (vesting option)

 

To be fair... let's just be optimistic for a bit. Eloy in LF, Robert does the job in CF. Anderson and Moncada do their jobs on the left side of the field. Madrigal produces like we expected and Vaughn shoots up ala Robert and Madrigal pushing to be the 1b/DH combo next year. Abreu is obviously around. So.... what exactly do we need? 

Right field. And the way I see it, that's the deepest position. Betts, Springer, Brantley, Pederson all could fit. And truly, if you were going to spend, Betts wouldn't be a bad spot. 

 

Then in terms of pitching - let's see what we get out of Cease and Lopez and Kopech and Rodon and Dunning this year. The options above arent fantastic but if even ONE of those guys listed take a step like Giolito last year then you have yourself a 1-2 punch at the top of rotation. Let's say another 2 take a step to be considered a solution for the back end of the rotation ... for arguments sake I'll say Rodon and Cease as your 4/5 and Kopech/Giolito as your 1/2. So then you need to sign ONE pitcher (also knowing you have Lopez and Dunning to fill out depth). Grab me Quintana on a 2-3 year deal at $13-14mm a year. He's your #3.  

 

Right there you have a playoff team with the best outfield in baseball and an all around solid infield. The rotation could use help, but its enough to win us the Central and you can assess halfway through the season if you want to add a Verlander/Cole type through a trade to make a push

[ChiSox59]

Assuming worst case scenario where we basically only add 2 stop gap SP on 1 year deals this offseason - let's just say Alex Wood and Tajuan Walker for sake of discussion.

The depth chart for 2021 looks as follows:

Catcher: Grandal

3B: Moncada

SS: Anderson

2B: Madrigal

1B: Vaughn (going to assume he's ready by early 2021 at the latest)

LF: Eloy

CF: Robert

RF: Mazara

DH: Abreu

SP: Gioltio, Kopech, Cease, Lopez.............Dunning, Steiver, Lambert

Let's just assume Mazara is the guy he's always been in 2020 - so Sox non-tender him after 2020.  Realistically, we'll only be looking for a RF and 1 SP.  

Plenty of options.  Mookie is long shot, but at least he's there.  Then there is Springer who would be an awesome fit.  Brantley would be solid, though he's getting old.  Joc and Peralta would be OK.

SP options aren't great, but its not like we need 3 of them.  

I don't think things are quite as grim as some want to make them out to be.  

[ScootsMcGoots]

12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Assuming worst case scenario where we basically only add 2 stop gap SP on 1 year deals this offseason - let's just say Alex Wood and Tajuan Walker for sake of discussion.

The depth chart for 2021 looks as follows:

Catcher: Grandal

3B: Moncada

SS: Anderson

2B: Madrigal

1B: Vaughn (going to assume he's ready by early 2021 at the latest)

LF: Eloy

CF: Robert

RF: Mazara

DH: Abreu

SP: Gioltio, Kopech, Cease, Lopez.............Dunning, Steiver, Lambert

Let's just assume Mazara is the guy he's always been in 2020 - so Sox non-tender him after 2020.  Realistically, we'll only be looking for a RF and 1 SP.  

Plenty of options.  Mookie is long shot, but at least he's there.  Then there is Springer who would be an awesome fit.  Brantley would be solid, though he's getting old.  Joc and Peralta would be OK.

SP options aren't great, but its not like we need 3 of them.  

I don't think things are quite as grim as some want to make them out to be.  

This roster on paper looks excellent. There is one thing that worries me: Injuries

[SoxBlanco]

16 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Assuming worst case scenario where we basically only add 2 stop gap SP on 1 year deals this offseason - let's just say Alex Wood and Tajuan Walker for sake of discussion.

The depth chart for 2021 looks as follows:

Catcher: Grandal

3B: Moncada

SS: Anderson

2B: Madrigal

1B: Vaughn (going to assume he's ready by early 2021 at the latest)

LF: Eloy

CF: Robert

RF: Mazara

DH: Abreu

SP: Gioltio, Kopech, Cease, Lopez.............Dunning, Steiver, Lambert

Let's just assume Mazara is the guy he's always been in 2020 - so Sox non-tender him after 2020.  Realistically, we'll only be looking for a RF and 1 SP.  

Plenty of options.  Mookie is long shot, but at least he's there.  Then there is Springer who would be an awesome fit.  Brantley would be solid, though he's getting old.  Joc and Peralta would be OK.

SP options aren't great, but its not like we need 3 of them.  

I don't think things are quite as grim as some want to make them out to be.  

Good post. The success of this team over the next few years will largely be determined by the success of Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Dunning, and Stiever (mostly the first three guys). If we can get one #1/#2 starter out of that group and one guy that is at least a #3, I really like our chances moving forward.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

Good post. The success of this team over the next few years will largely be determined by the success of Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Dunning, and Stiever (mostly the first three guys). If we can get one #1/#2 starter out of that group and one guy that is at least a #3, I really like our chances moving forward.

Yah, specifically Kopech and Cease.  We really need to find a legit #1 or #2 out those guys, and the other needs to be a solid mid rotation piece.  While Lopez popping would be phenomenal, I don't hate just penciling him into the 5 spot for the next 4 seasons.  Frankly anything we get out of Dunning and Stiever at the MLB level will be gravy, but Dunning should definitely be a rotation option by 2021 if he can stay healthy.  

[caulfield12]

The problem is expecting 4 out of 5 guys to make it.

Thats an impossible success rate for pitching prospects.  Normally, you’re looking at 2/5 or 3/5.

The scenario everyone is most worried about is Lopez never makes it, Giolito is more a 3 (Gavin Floyd after 2008) than #1/2, and only 1 out of Cease/Kopech/Dunning is in the rotation two years from now.

Even 3/5 (and assuming one of the failures ends up a closer or high leverage pen guy), you’re looking at adding two just to be safe, having no real idea if Rodon will even be with the organization a year from now.

If we felt more confident in Rodon or Dunning, sure, only add one pitcher and roll the dice.   IMO, Stiever is more likely for the pen, at least that’s where most scouts are projecting him, at least ahead of Hamilton and Burdi in the current pecking order.

Edited December 17, 2019 by caulfield12

[ChiSox59]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

The problem is expecting 4 out of 5 guys to make it.

Thats an impossible success rate for pitching prospects.  Normally, you’re looking at 2/5 or 3/5.

The scenario everyone is most worried about is Lopez never makes it, Giolito is more a 3 (Gavin Floyd after 2008 than 1/2), and only 1 out of Cease/Kopech/Dunning is in the rotation two years from now.

Even 3/5 (and assuming one of the failures ends up a closer or high leverage pen guy), you’re looking at adding two just to be safe, having no real idea if Rodon will even be with the organization a year from now.

If we felt more confident in Rodon or Dunning, sure, only add one pitcher and roll the dice.   IMO, Stiever is more likely for the pen, at least that’s where most scouts are projecting him, at least ahead of Hamilton and Burdi in the current pecking order.

I mean....who are the 4 out of 5?  Giolito is already at worst an above average MLB SP.  Lopez is already at worst an average or slightly below average MLB SP.  Cease is already in the big leagues, though it wasn't pretty overall but showed flashes.  Kopech is at worst going to be an average SP.  Obviously we need more out of those guys than being average...but its not like we're projecting 5 SP prospects that are years away from the big leagues to make it.  Pretty much all of these guys already have made it - its just a question of if they develop into above average pitchers.  You may be looking at 40-60% success rate on guys that are years away, but I think we can project a little higher than that considering where these guys are in their development.  Could one of Cease or Kopech completely flop?  Yah, I suppose.  But I don't see it as very likely unless they have career ending injury situations.  

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I mean....who are the 4 out of 5?  Giolito is already at worst an above average MLB SP.  Lopez is already at worst an average or slightly below average MLB SP.  Cease is already in the big leagues, though it wasn't pretty overall but showed flashes.  Kopech is at worst going to be an average SP.  Obviously we need more out of those guys than being average...but its not like we're projecting 5 SP prospects that are years away from the big leagues to make it.  Pretty much all of these guys already have made it - its just a question of if they develop into above average pitchers.  You may be looking at 40-60% success rate on guys that are years away, but I think we can project a little higher than that considering where these guys are in their development.  Could one of Cease or Kopech completely flop?  Yah, I suppose.  But I don't see it as very likely unless they have career ending injury situations.  

If we had the same success rate out of 1998-2001 prospects (we also had another #1 BA-ranked class in 2000), we win three World Series titles in the 2000’s.

Along with Buehrle and Garland, Garcia and Contreras ended up being the keys.  The bust rate of those pitching prospects was 75-80%.  Wells and Fogg were the only other two that ended up having decent careers.  McCarthy came in the next cycle/wave.

[ChiSoxJon]

Hate looking ahead in FA, but we're done in FA it seems unless Castellanos or Ozuna sign here (which has its pros and cons)

Next year's groups has some arms and OFers it seems as of now FWIW

[ChiSox59]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

If we had the same success rate out of 1998-2001 prospects (we also had another #1 BA-ranked class in 2000), we win three World Series titles in the 2000’s.

Along with Buehrle and Garland, Garcia and Contreras ended up being the keys.  The bust rate of those pitching prospects was 75-80%.  Wells and Fogg were the only other two that ended up having decent careers.  McCarthy came in the next cycle/wave.

What happened in 1998-2001 is completely irrelevant to now.  

I was between 8-11 years old when this occurred, and while I was a huge Sox fan, I don't remember exactly how touted as prospects these guys were and don't really care to look back as its completely irrelevant.  

That being said, Gioltio was at a time the best prospect in baseball.  Kopech and Cease both were as recently as 6 months ago both top 5ish SP prospects in the game.  Lopez was also a big time prospect.  Plus, all of these guys have already pitched in the big leagues, some for multiple years.  This isn't projecting an 18 year old kid in A ball.  

Projecting 40-50% flop rate on these guys is insanely pessimistic.  

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Hate looking ahead in FA, but we're done in FA it seems unless Castellanos or Ozuna sign here (which has its pros and cons)

Next year's groups has some arms and OFers it seems as of now FWIW

There’s still EE, Keuchel, Teheran, Wood, Walker...couple more possibilities there that are not King Felix or the Dark Knight....along with Harris, Hudson, Betances in the pen.