2020-21 Free Agents (yuck!)

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Hate looking ahead in FA, but we're done in FA it seems unless Castellanos or Ozuna sign here (which has its pros and cons)

Next year's groups has some arms and OFers it seems as of now FWIW

Lol, there is a zero percent chance the Sox are done in FA and I put the chances at them signing either Castellanos or Ozuna as under 5%.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

What happened in 1998-2001 is completely irrelevant to now.  

I was between 8-11 years old when this occurred, and while I was a huge Sox fan, I don't remember exactly how touted as prospects these guys were and don't really care to look back as its completely irrelevant.  

That being said, Gioltio was at a time the best prospect in baseball.  Kopech and Cease both were as recently as 6 months ago both top 5ish SP prospects in the game.  Lopez was also a big time prospect.  Plus, all of these guys have already pitched in the big leagues, some for multiple years.  This isn't projecting an 18 year old kid in A ball.  

Projecting 40-50% flop rate on these guys is insanely pessimistic.  

Where is Jon Rauch now...he was #1 rated as well?   That’s still relevant, because KW and JR are still largely running things...at least the purse strings.
 

A year ago, Lopez was projected into every future rotation and Giolito was getting his final opportunity.   It’s the White Sox, after all.  What can go wrong usually does go wrong.   If there weren’t so many with medical questions, sure.   Project all you want and don’t add.  Even Hahn on numerous occasions said he was looking for a #2 and then a backend guy to stabilize the rotation and take the pressure off Cease and all the pitchers coming back from major surgeries.

Ryu is the only 2 left, and Price is a 4/5 going forward.  Not a single source has linked us to Ryu.

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

What happened in 1998-2001 is completely irrelevant to now.  

I was between 8-11 years old when this occurred, and while I was a huge Sox fan, I don't remember exactly how touted as prospects these guys were and don't really care to look back as its completely irrelevant.  

That being said, Gioltio was at a time the best prospect in baseball.  Kopech and Cease both were as recently as 6 months ago both top 5ish SP prospects in the game.  Lopez was also a big time prospect.  Plus, all of these guys have already pitched in the big leagues, some for multiple years.  This isn't projecting an 18 year old kid in A ball.  

Projecting 40-50% flop rate on these guys is insanely pessimistic.  

Prospect rankings are about 1000% more efficient today than they were in 2000 as well.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Where is Jon Rauch now...he was #1 rated as well? 

Jon Rauch never had a season over 1.7 fWAR...next highest was 0.9.  Lucas just had a season of 5.1 fWAR.  So try again.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Where is Jon Rauch now...he was #1 rated as well? 
 

A year ago, Lopez was projected into every future rotation and Giolito was getting his final opportunity.   It’s the White Sox, after all.  What can go wrong usually does go wrong.   If there weren’t so many with medical questions, sure.   Project all you want and don’t add.  Even Hahn on numerous occasions said he was looking for a #2 and then a backend guy to stabilize the rotation and take the pressure off Cease and all the pitchers coming back from major surgeries.

Ryu is the only 2 left, and Price is a 4/5 going forward.  Not a single source has linked us to Ryu.

 

Ken Rosenthal literally linked the White Sox to Ryu last night. 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Ken Rosenthal literally linked the White Sox to Ryu last night. 

So then all is well.  Problem solved...if we just ignore the existence of at least seven other teams and Scott Boras, we are all set.

[ChiSoxJon]

13 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol, there is a zero percent chance the Sox are done in FA and I put the chances at them signing either Castellanos or Ozuna as under 5%.

Maybe they sign a flier or two, but essentially done

[ChiSoxJon]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

There’s still EE, Keuchel, Teheran, Wood, Walker...couple more possibilities there that are not King Felix or the Dark Knight....along with Harris, Hudson, Betances in the pen.

Haven't been linked to the majority of these names unfortunately

I would have liked EE, but makes little sense now with the jam we have

Harris is the only one on this list I'd like

Teheran, Wood, Walker are fliers to me, but wouldn't mind

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

So then all is well.  Problem solved...if we just ignore the existence of at least seven other teams and Scott Boras, we are all set.

1. I never said they would get Ryu.

2. You lied and said that they weren't even linked to Ryu; I merely pointed out that you were lying. 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

1. I never said they would get Ryu.

2. You lied and said that they weren't even linked to Ryu; I merely pointed out that you were lying. 

Jesus Christ.  I’m supposed to be monitoring the internet 24 hours per day here in China?

So mentioning the White Sox along with other teams versus substantiating that we’ve had a REAL meeting with Boras Corp on Keuchel and/or Ryu?

How many legitimate national writers have connected REAL CONCRETE TANGIBLE discussions with Boras and the White Sox this entire offseason?

ANY?

You’re really a piece of work accusing others of lying...but it’s whatever.  But sure, I saw that article and deliberately ignored it and attempted to obfuscate the truth in order to keep the White Sox/Ryu/Boras negotiations for being exposed before a deal could be struck.  I’ve been sitting on it for 2-3 weeks, lol.

Edited December 17, 2019 by caulfield12

[he gone.]

Here's my own, very amateur and quick dive on the Sox rotation (also i'm not talking injuries because you can't predict those - thats why you want to be about 7 deep. 5 good guys and 2 more guys who can hold down the fort.

Giolito - 25-30% chance of being a true ace. Up there with your shut down guys that are top 10 in the league. 50% guy of being a fine #1 guy. 75-85% being a very solid #2, 10% chance of just reverting back to an end of the rotation type guy

Lopez - 5-10% chance of figuring it out and being a #2/3 guy. 80% being a #5 guy who can eat innings and is more or less a young, better version of like an Ivan Nova (just using familiar names). I personally think he's got a chance though to be shut down 7th/8th inning guy and would be curious to see how he handles that role. 

Dunning - again this is without injuries - and I think he's a bit of a wild card since we havent seen him at this level, but I'd say he's got a 30% chance of turning into a Quintana type. A guy who can be your #3 and be solid. Give you chances to win games and keeps you in it. I think there's a 75% chance he sticks in your rotation (again assuming health)

Kopech - 25% chance of becoming true ace, top of the league type guy. 40% chance of being a serviceable #3. 35% chance of never putting it together for more than a few stretches at a time and is almost on the Lopez trajectory of bouncing around the back of rotation and maybe bullpen

Rodon - He's the most controversial of my guys. But I'm a Rodon guy. So I'm skewed a bit here. I'd say 20% chance he turns into #2/3 type guy. 50% chance he's a rotation piece. 30% chance he's gone to some other team. I really think were going to see multiple All Star appearances by Rodon if he can stay healthy - just dont know if it ill be on the sox. 

Cease - 10% chance he can be a #1/2 type guy. 20% or so that he's mid-rotation guy -- maybe Sonny Gray like. 50% chance hes a rotation piece. 25% he never makes it and is a bullpen guy

[ChiSox1917]

31 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

What happened in 1998-2001 is completely irrelevant to now.  

I was between 8-11 years old when this occurred, and while I was a huge Sox fan, I don't remember exactly how touted as prospects these guys were and don't really care to look back as its completely irrelevant.  

That being said, Gioltio was at a time the best prospect in baseball.  Kopech and Cease both were as recently as 6 months ago both top 5ish SP prospects in the game.  Lopez was also a big time prospect.  Plus, all of these guys have already pitched in the big leagues, some for multiple years.  This isn't projecting an 18 year old kid in A ball.  

Projecting 40-50% flop rate on these guys is insanely pessimistic.  

The other thing to note is the vast improvement in scouting between 2000 and today.  A lot of those guys would not be as highly ranked today.  

[caulfield12]

25 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Jon Rauch never had a season over 1.7 fWAR...next highest was 0.9.  Lucas just had a season of 5.1 fWAR.  So try again.  

Kopech has been the closest recently to that position...Giolito’s peak in prospect ratings was years earlier.

But sure, give him $125 million to extend, might as well spend the money on something.  He’s well spoken, comes from a strong family, appreciates the White Sox sticking with him through adversity...about as good a team leader as it gets on the pitching side of things,

[EloyJenkins]

22 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Kopech - 25% chance of becoming true ace, top of the league type guy. 40% chance of being a serviceable #3. 35% chance of never putting it together for more than a few stretches at a time and is almost on the Lopez trajectory of bouncing around the back of rotation and maybe bullpen

 

Really? Why? Pre Injury he was looking like it all was coming together. Many pitchers come back Post TJ and are even better than their previous self. 

I myself thinks he lands at the high end of the #2 spectrum and has a nice 4-6 year run before he flames out. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Jesus Christ.  I’m supposed to be monitoring the internet 24 hours per day here in China?

So mentioning the White Sox along with other teams versus substantiating that we’ve had a REAL meeting with Boras Corp on Keuchel and/or Ryu?

How many legitimate national writers have connected REAL CONCRETE TANGIBLE discussions with Boras and the White Sox this entire offseason?

ANY?

You’re really a piece of work accusing others of lying...but it’s whatever.  But sure, I saw that article and deliberately ignored it and attempted to obfuscate the truth in order to keep the White Sox/Ryu/Boras negotiations for being exposed before a deal could be struck.  I’ve been sitting on it for 2-3 weeks, lol.

No, but you shouldn't make some negative blanket statement if you don't know the truth behind it.

Now you're doubling down on your point, that was wrong in the first place. Sheesh.

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No, but you shouldn't make some negative blanket statement if you don't know the truth behind it.

Now you're doubling down on your point, that was wrong in the first place. Sheesh.

You lied. You said Rosenthal linked the White Sox to Ryu last night. Might want to read again. He just said the White Sox are looking for pitching.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

You lied. You said Rosenthal linked the White Sox to Ryu last night. Might want to read again. He just said the White Sox are looking for pitching.

So when a National writer tweets out a players market, that's not tying them together? Interesting take.

So what classifies as tying a team and player together? I'll hang up and listen.

[bschmaranz]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So when a National writer tweets out a players market, that's not tying them together? Interesting take.

So what classifies as tying a team and player together? I'll hang up and listen.

Technically he is correct.  He just listed the teams that were still looking for pitching.  No direct tie to Ryu.

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So when a National writer tweets out a players market, that's not tying them together? Interesting take.

So what classifies as tying a team and player together? I'll hang up and listen.

He just listed and wrote teams looking for pitching. Read it. He had nothing on the White Sox and Ryu. Just read what he wrote, He added and White Sox. 

 

Expectation within industry is Ryu will exceed Bumgarner’s $17M average annual value in deal of at least four years. Two industry people with knowledge of starting-pitching market predict minimum four years, $80M. Teams still in need of starter include #BlueJays; #Angels; #Twins.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Dick Allen

[Moan4Yoan]

3 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

Technically he is correct.  He just listed the teams that were still looking for pitching.  No direct tie to Ryu.

This is correct.  I’m not sure why it matters though.  Does anyone honestly think Hahn is going to win a bidding war with a Boras client who is the best available starting pitcher left?  I don’t need a Ken Rosenthal tweet to know how this will end...

Edited December 17, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[bschmaranz]

Just now, Moan4Yoan said:

This is correct.  I’m not sure why it matters though.  Does anyone honestly think Hahn is going to win a bidding war with a Boras client who is the best available starting pitcher left?

I was about to say yes, but then I got hit by a flying pig.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

He just listed and wrote teams looking for pitching. Read it. He had nothing on the White Sox and Ryu. Just read what he wrote, He added and White Sox. 

 

Expectation within industry is Ryu will exceed Bumgarner’s $17M average annual value in deal of at least four years. Two industry people with knowledge of starting-pitching market predict minimum four years, $80M. Teams still in need of starter include #BlueJays; #Angels; #Twins.

Fair enough

[Moan4Yoan]

2 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

I was about to say yes, but then I got hit by a flying pig.

A flying sock would be good omen.  But a flying pig probably means King Felix and Ivan Nova are our consolation prizes.

[bschmaranz]

Just now, Moan4Yoan said:

A flying sock would be good omen.  But a flying pig probably means King Felix and Ivan Nova are our consolation prizes.

We need to stop mentioning Felix.  It scares me too much!  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Here’s the problem. You can’t win the AL pennant against teams built like the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees by fielding 5 average MLB starting pitchers. If they aren’t going to sign a bona fide #1 or #2 from outside the organization then you need at least two of Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Lopez etc to emerge and remain consistent top of rotation starters AND the rest to be solid mid to back of rotation starters. This is a plan destined for failure.
 

Other than KC, I can’t think of a single World Series team over the past decade that didn’t have at least two studs at the top of the rotation and good depth beyond that.