2020-21 Free Agents (yuck!)

[steveno89]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Here’s the problem. You can’t win the AL pennant against teams built like the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees by fielding 5 average MLB starting pitchers. If they aren’t going to sign a bona fide #1 or #2 from outside the organization then you need at least two of Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Lopez etc to emerge and remain consistent top of rotation starters AND the rest to be solid mid to back of rotation starters. This is a plan destined for failure.
 

Other than KC, I can’t think of a single World Series team over the past decade that didn’t have at least two studs at the top of the rotation and good depth beyond that.

This entire rebuild only goes as far as Giolito/Kopech/Lopez/Cease/Dunning/Stiever will take us. Sure, we can and will add outside talent, but our farm is thin and pretty top heavy.

Is trading Madrigal/Cease/Vaughn really in our best long term interest right now? Likely not. 

[gusguyman]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Jesus Christ.  I’m supposed to be monitoring the internet 24 hours per day here in China?

No, I'm pretty sure it is the internet that is monitoring you. 

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

What happened in 1998-2001 is completely irrelevant to now.  

I was between 8-11 years old when this occurred, and while I was a huge Sox fan, I don't remember exactly how touted as prospects these guys were and don't really care to look back as its completely irrelevant.  

That being said, Gioltio was at a time the best prospect in baseball.  Kopech and Cease both were as recently as 6 months ago both top 5ish SP prospects in the game.  Lopez was also a big time prospect.  Plus, all of these guys have already pitched in the big leagues, some for multiple years.  This isn't projecting an 18 year old kid in A ball.  

Projecting 40-50% flop rate on these guys is insanely pessimistic.  

Gio, Kopech, and Cease have all had TJ already. Another one isn't quite a death sentence, but it probably ends any hope of them being top-flight starters. All these projections depend on them staying healthy, and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect at least one of them to never hit an average projection because of injury, TJ or otherwise. 

[gusguyman]

Also, I am going to start the drum beat for Springer now. Pretty affordable, useful bat, and would play stellar D in RF for years. You can slide him to CF when Robert needs a day off. Mazara as a 4th OF vs RHP. Eloy/Robert/Springer/Mazara vs RHP is a fantastic and balanced OF.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Also, I am going to start the drum beat for Springer now. Pretty affordable, useful bat, and would play stellar D in RF for years. You can slide him to CF when Robert needs a day off. Mazara as a 4th OF vs RHP. Eloy/Robert/Springer/Mazara vs RHP is a fantastic and balanced OF.

A guy whose contract will likely be what, more than 3x the largest contract in team history?

[wegner]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A guy whose contract will likely be what, more than 3x the largest contract in team history?

If you compare him to what Mookie is going to get...George might be a bargain ?

[steveno89]

7 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Also, I am going to start the drum beat for Springer now. Pretty affordable, useful bat, and would play stellar D in RF for years. You can slide him to CF when Robert needs a day off. Mazara as a 4th OF vs RHP. Eloy/Robert/Springer/Mazara vs RHP is a fantastic and balanced OF.

How is Springer going to be affordable? He will hit free agency at age 31, and likely be ticketed for a lucrative 6 year deal. Cheaper than Betts? Sure, but still expect it to be at least 6/$150 million

[gusguyman]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A guy whose contract will likely be what, more than 3x the largest contract in team history?

 

8 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

How is Springer going to be affordable? He will hit free agency at age 31, and likely be ticketed for a lucrative 6 year deal. Cheaper than Betts? Sure, but still expect it to be at least 6/$150 million

He is going to be 31 in an offseason with two stud OFS who are both younger and perhaps better (Joc v Springer could be close depending on next year).

The 4/72 that article projected is way too low, but 4/90 -5/110 seems very possible, and yes affordable (even if it would be a Sox record).

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

 

He is going to be 31 in an offseason with two stud OFS who are both younger and perhaps better (Joc v Springer could be close depending on next year).

The 4/72 that article projected is way too low, but 4/90 -5/110 seems very possible, and yes affordable (even if it would be a Sox record).

I'd hammer the over on 5/$110, and I don't think Joc is a fair comp for Springer at all.

But yes, I would love Springer on the Sox and I think he is the perfect fit.  Thousands of times better than Ozuna and Castellanos, and the Sox (seemingly) unwilling to go after those guys unless its cheap gives me hope that they'll seriously explore Springer next offseason.    

[Moan4Yoan]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I'd hammer the over on 5/$110, and I don't think Joc is a fair comp for Springer at all.

But yes, I would love Springer on the Sox and I think he is the perfect fit.  Thousands of times better than Ozuna and Castellanos, and the Sox (seemingly) unwilling to go after those guys unless its cheap gives me hope that they'll seriously explore Springer next offseason.    

With Mazara under control for two seasons, I doubt they go after an outfielder next offseason.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Moan4Yoan said:

With Mazara under control for two seasons, I doubt they go after an outfielder next offseason.

JFC.  You are so gd obtuse.  The guy is arb eligible.  He can be non-tendered for $0 after next season. The only chance Mazara is on the 2021 roster is if he has a great 2020.  Look at like a 1 year deal with a team option.  IT IS NOT A TWO YEAR DEAL.  

I know you're just trolling me, but gd, you're annoying.  

[gusguyman]

I'll say this - If Springer puts up another 6+ WAR season, he probably goes over well over 110. But look at the last couple of years for 30+ year old OFers:
 

2016 - Yoenis Cespedes - 30 yrs old bWar last 3 seasons 4.1/6.3/3.1 - Got 110 over 4

2017 - Lorenzo Cain - 32 - 7.2/3.0/5.4 - Got 80M over 5
2018 - AJ Pollock - 31 - 0.5/3.1/2.5 - Got 60 over 5

2018 - Michael Brantley - 32 - 0/2.1/3.6 - Got 32 over 2

2018 - Andrew McCutchen - 2.5/2.0/0.8 - Got 50 over 3

2020 - Springer - 31 - 2.7/6.2/??? - ???

There are no fantastic comps here, and Springer is probably better than any of them. But if he puts up a 4 win season, I don't see him doing all that much better than Cespedes. 

[Moan4Yoan]

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

JFC.  You are so gd obtuse.  The guy is arb eligible.  He can be non-tendered for $0 after next season. The only chance Mazara is on the 2021 roster is if he has a great 2020.  Look at like a 1 year deal with a team option.  IT IS NOT A TWO YEAR DEAL.  

I know you're just trolling me, but gd, you're annoying.  

Hahn likes to prove he is the smartest guy in the room.  He will give Mazara both years to turn it around from being a ~.750 OPS outfielder.

The fact that you question this idea and have any belief the Sox will sign an outfielder to a record contract over $100 million next offseason shows that either you haven’t been paying attention or you are the obtuse one.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Hahn likes to prove he is the smartest guy in the room.  He will give Mazara both years to turn it around from being a ~.750 OPS outfielder.

The fact that you question this idea and have any belief the Sox will sign an outfielder to a record contract over $100 million next offseason shows that either you haven’t been paying attention or you are the obtuse one.

I said I hope they'd explore signing Springer.  I didn't say I believe they'd sign Springer.  Reading comprehension is important.  

Want to put some money where your mouth is?  If Mazara accumulates under 1.0 fWAR in 2020, he will not be on the 2021 roster.  If he is under 1 fWAR in 2020 and he is on the OD 2021 roster, you win.  If he accumulates less than 1 fWAR and is NOT on the OD 2021 roster, I win.  

[Moan4Yoan]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I said I hope they'd explore signing Springer.  I didn't say I believe they'd sign Springer.  Reading comprehension is important.  

Want to put some money where your mouth is?  If Mazara accumulates under 1.0 fWAR in 2020, he will not be on the 2021 roster.  If he is under 1 fWAR in 2020 and he is on the OD 2021 roster, you win.  If he accumulates less than 1 fWAR and is NOT on the OD 2021 roster, I win.  

What makes you believe this?  The fact that the Sox went with Palka as their opening day starting right fielder last year?  ?

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Moan4Yoan said:

What makes you believe this?  The fact that the Sox went with Palka as their opening day starting right fielder last year?  ?

The White Sox were tanking last year you dipshit.  

So I take it you don't want to take the bet?  

[Moan4Yoan]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

The White Sox were tanking last year you dipshit.  

So I take it you don't want to take the bet?  

I think Mazara is here for two seasons.  I already said it.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Moan4Yoan said:

I think Mazara is here for two seasons.  I already said it.

So you want to take the bet I laid out or not?

If you're so confident, its easy money.  

[thxfrthmmrs]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I said I hope they'd explore signing Springer.  I didn't say I believe they'd sign Springer.  Reading comprehension is important.  

Want to put some money where your mouth is?  If Mazara accumulates under 1.0 fWAR in 2020, he will not be on the 2021 roster.  If he is under 1 fWAR in 2020 and he is on the OD 2021 roster, you win.  If he accumulates less than 1 fWAR and is NOT on the OD 2021 roster, I win.  

What’s the wager here? Greg’s houses?

[ChiSox59]

Crickets.  Classic. What a fuckin' troll.  Finally doing what I should have done when he returned a couple weeks ago.....IGNORE.  Peace, Cubs fan.  

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Here’s the problem. You can’t win the AL pennant against teams built like the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees by fielding 5 average MLB starting pitchers. If they aren’t going to sign a bona fide #1 or #2 from outside the organization then you need at least two of Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Lopez etc to emerge and remain consistent top of rotation starters AND the rest to be solid mid to back of rotation starters. This is a plan destined for failure.
 

Other than KC, I can’t think of a single World Series team over the past decade that didn’t have at least two studs at the top of the rotation and good depth beyond that.

Cueto in 2015, Shields, Yordano Ventura

[Moan4Yoan]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Crickets.  Classic. What a fuckin' troll.  Finally doing what I should have done when he returned a couple weeks ago.....IGNORE.  Peace, Cubs fan.  

Crickets?  You laid out a stupid bet without any wager that no one will remember in a year.  I already said Mazara is here for two seasons.

Meanwhile, you are having wet dreams of the Sox signing Springer next offseason for $100+ million dollars when Hahn can’t even land a much more important starting pitcher THIS offseason!

All the while, name-calling me obtuse, dipshit, and troll.  Amazing.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[caulfield12]

I made a bet with someone about Avi...they said 1/$8 and I said 3/$40, but technically it would be a split decision, since he got two years.  Their AAV was still closer, by a bit...to their original guess.  But then there were rumors he turned down three years to bet on himself having two solid years and heading into FA again in 2021-22, so basically a draw there.  Nobody thought he would get more than one year.

[he gone.]

8 hours ago, EloyJenkins said:

Really? Why? Pre Injury he was looking like it all was coming together. Many pitchers come back Post TJ and are even better than their previous self. 

I myself thinks he lands at the high end of the #2 spectrum and has a nice 4-6 year run before he flames out. 

The walks scare me. I'll throw a random comp of Jon Gray out. Or maybe Robbie Ray. Fine pitchers no doubt with some real nasty stuff, but walk issues that limits their true Ace potential. I see Kopech being more so the aforementioned guys than Sale. The percentages of him flaming out completely might be a bit high, but he does seem like he can be a head case that spirals at times. On a competitive roster he may not have the leash to learn. My best guess comp is those two guys though (at least off the top of my head)

[fathom]

1 minute ago, BrianAnderson said:

The walks scare me. I'll throw a random comp of Jon Gray out. Or maybe Robbie Ray. Fine pitchers no doubt with some real nasty stuff, but walk issues that limits their true Ace potential. I see Kopech being more so the aforementioned guys than Sale. The percentages of him flaming out completely might be a bit high, but he does seem like he can be a head case that spirals at times. On a competitive roster he may not have the leash to learn. My best guess comp is those two guys though (at least off the top of my head)

I think him and Cease are very similar pitchers. 

[bschmaranz]

1 minute ago, BrianAnderson said:

The walks scare me. I'll throw a random comp of Jon Gray out. Or maybe Robbie Ray. Fine pitchers no doubt with some real nasty stuff, but walk issues that limits their true Ace potential. I see Kopech being more so the aforementioned guys than Sale. The percentages of him flaming out completely might be a bit high, but he does seem like he can be a head case that spirals at times. On a competitive roster he may not have the leash to learn. My best guess comp is those two guys though (at least off the top of my head)

Stop scaring me.