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Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option


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Guys who are on the roster bubble for me:

Zavala, Medeiros, Jose Ruiz, Tayron Guerrero, maybe Fulmer.

Then after Spring, Rodon, Lambert, and Dunning all go on the 60 day, so there will be room to add Robert, Madrigal, and NRI’s from Spring.

Covey and Fulmer are both out of options.  They either make the club, or they are gone.

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15 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

If the choice is Covey or Fulmer, I’d still keep Fulmer.  Covey is two years older and has 150 more innings pitched of bad than Fulmer.

Fulmer has no options left, while Covey does.  Honestly, Covey is likely to stick around one more year and be bullpen depth (probably his ideal role) and our emergency starter.

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2 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Guys who are on the roster bubble for me:

Zavala, Medeiros, Jose Ruiz, Tayron Guerrero, maybe Fulmer.

Then after Spring, Rodon, Lambert, and Dunning all go on the 60 day, so there will be room to add Robert, Madrigal, and NRI’s from Spring.

Covey and Fulmer are both out of options.  They either make the club, or they are gone.

I still think Ruiz has potential. And they claimed Guerrero off waivers earlier this offseason, so I hope they give him a look as well. Zavala, Covey, Fulmer, etc should all be gone before those two.

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3 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Guys who are on the roster bubble for me:

Zavala, Medeiros, Jose Ruiz, Tayron Guerrero, maybe Fulmer.

Then after Spring, Rodon, Lambert, and Dunning all go on the 60 day, so there will be room to add Robert, Madrigal, and NRI’s from Spring.

Covey and Fulmer are both out of options.  They either make the club, or they are gone.

I don’t think Covey is out of options, at least per Roster Resource.

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-chicago-white-sox/

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37 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Biggest take away from the presser was Hahn saying they still had payroll flexibility and that maybe even they add a bigger costly piece in July  

Seems like they're still no where near their cap for the rebuild.

If they are near that cap, signing Machado would have been incredibly stupid so I wouldn't think they are. 

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5 minutes ago, mqr said:

If they are near that cap, signing Machado would have been incredibly stupid so I wouldn't think they are. 

Oh I agree - I posted that the money would be spent should not be implied to mean they were only going to spend manny money. Since they have not even reached out the manny guarantees yet, you have to imagine they have 40-50 million a year in remaining flexibility over the next 2-3 years. Which is really exciting as it means the marquee guys next off season are still on the table and if this season goes well the sox may actually be negotiating from a position of power for the first time in decades.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Oh I agree - I posted that the money would be spent should not be implied to mean they were only going to spend manny money. Since they have not even reached out the manny guarantees yet, you have to imagine they have 40-50 million a year in remaining flexibility over the next 2-3 years. Which is really exciting as it means the marquee guys next off season are still on the table.

Perhaps not if it’s earmarked for extensions to Giolito, Moncada, Robert, Madrigal, etc.

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7 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Perhaps not if it’s earmarked for extensions to Giolito, Moncada, Robert, Madrigal, etc.

You just have to look at the payroll year to year. Sox open up a lot more money next off season. None of their commitments push up against re-upping the young guys. Grandal is the longest one and should be off the books in time to not effect any extension for the young guys. 

Sox realistically should have almost as much money next off season as they had this off season - the only commitment youd have to account for as impacting the young guys would be a long big time contract. They have zero of those as of now. They can probably afford one star while still being able to reup yoan and gio. I dont need this team playing poor like the cubs and other teams. We know you got that money Jerry and it's time to put it in play 100%. Let's go.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You just have to look at the payroll year to year. Sox open up a lot more money next off season. None of their commitments push up against re-upping the young guys. Grandal is the longest one and should be off the books in time to not effect any extension for the young guys. 

Sox realistically should have almost as much money next off season as they had this off season - the only commitment youd have to account for as impacting the young guys would be a long big time contract. They have zero of those as of now. They can probably afford one star while still being able to reup yoan and gio. I dont need this time playing poor like the cubs and other teams. We know you got that money Jerry and it's time to put it in play 100%. Let's go.

How do they open up a lot of money?  Sure, they may lose Colome, McCann, & possibly Herrera, but Moncada, Giolito, & Lopez all hit arbitration.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How do they open up a lot of money?  Sure, they may lose Colome, McCann, & possibly Herrera, but Moncada, Giolito, & Lopez all hit arbitration.

Regardless of how good you are, you're just not breaking the bank in Arb 1.

They free up about 14 million with Herrera and McCann leaving. They free up 12 million from Encarnacion. 5 million from Gonzalez. 4 million from Leury. 10 million from Colome. 

That's 45/million off the books next year. Obviously those guys need to be replaced, but if the starters make progress and Vaughn is ready you may not need to replace Encarnacion or Gonzalez. Heck, maybe you get 1 bullpen piece from the crop that emerges as your closer/back end guy which limits what you need to replace Colome.

That would drop their payroll before Arb changes to 80ish million entering next off-season. Assume arb on Gio, Lopez and Moncada at 12 million and you're at 92 million only. Plenty of room to make additional splashes while leaving money to pay your guys.

 

Edit: Gio, Lopez and Moncada could get closer to 20 million than 12. So 100 million ish.

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3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Regardless of how good you are, you're just not breaking the bank in Arb 1.

They free up about 14 million with Herrera and McCann leaving. They free up 12 million from Encarnacion. 5 million from Gonzalez. 4 million from Leury. 10 million from Colome. 

That's 45/million off the books next year. Obviously those guys need to be replaced, but if the starters make progress and Vaughn is ready you may not need to replace Encarnacion or Gonzalez. Heck, maybe you get 1 bullpen piece from the crop that emerges as your closer/back end guy which limits what you need to replace Colome.

That would drop their payroll before Arb changes to 80ish million entering next off-season. Assume arb on Gio, Lopez and Moncada at 12 million and you're at 92 million only. Plenty of room to make additional splashes while leaving money to pay your guys.

 

Edit: Gio, Lopez and Moncada could get closer to 20 million than 12. So 100 million ish.

If Moncada and Giolito do what they did last year again, only the two of them will be around $20M. 

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11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If Moncada and Giolito do what they did last year again, only the two of them will be around $20M. 

Even with arb salary growth, that would be crazy. Mookie had accumulated 21+ WAR in 3 seasons pre arb and he got 10 million dollars. 

Bryant got 11 million after an mvp campaign and 21 WAR over 3 years. 

Moncada and giolito cant come close to those numbers.

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7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Even with arb salary growth, that would be crazy. Mookie had accumulated 21+ WAR in 3 seasons pre arb and he got 10 million dollars. 

Bryant got 11 million after an mvp campaign and 21 WAR over 3 years. 

Moncada and giolito cant come close to those numbers.

Moncada put up nearly 6 WAR last year, 8 isn't out of the question. Moncada's 2019 was close to Bryant's 2017. Most of baseball's best hitters are 3B right now. You can't take that away from Moncada. If Moncada played a full season with rest(154 games) linear extrapolation would have put him at 6.6 fWAR in 2019. 

Giolito was 8th in baseball in DRA- last year. If he get's better or does it again, that's some pretty lofty company for him too. I said they'd get around 20M combined, and I mean it, even if it's just short by a bit. 

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21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Moncada put up nearly 6 WAR last year, 8 isn't out of the question. Moncada's 2019 was close to Bryant's 2017. Most of baseball's best hitters are 3B right now. You can't take that away from Moncada. If Moncada played a full season with rest(154 games) linear extrapolation would have put him at 6.6 fWAR in 2019. 

Giolito was 8th in baseball in DRA- last year. If he get's better or does it again, that's some pretty lofty company for him too. I said they'd get around 20M combined, and I mean it, even if it's just short by a bit. 

8+6 is not more than 20 or 21. Neither gio or moncada can come close to matching because they were bad one year. I'm not projecting a 9 war season from yoan eirher.

They'll get about 7-8 million each. Lopez about 4 million.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

8+6 is not more than 20 or 21. Neither gio or moncada can come close to matching because they were bad one year. I'm not projecting a 9 war season from yoan eirher.

They'll get about 7-8 million each. Lopez about 4 million.

It's not, but let's not forget that Moncada was worth 3.3 fWAR in his rookie season and a half.  Moncada could get close. Moncada has been worth 9 fWAR in his career so far. He's a good bet for at least 16 IMO. 

If they match or improve on their 2018, I think they're going to get somewhere in the 17-18M range. 

 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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