Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option

[ChiSox1917]

15 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

If defense had absolutely nothing to do with how many runs a pitcher gives up, you'd be right.

But it does, so...

FIP doesn't take into account pitchers that generate soft contact - one of Keuchel's strengths 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

I don't know who Mike North is, so, if that's an insult, I'm sorry but I'm not feeling it.

A large contingent of the industry, both in and outside the MLB, does not believe that pitch framing is valued correctly in the numbers that we are seeing. The fact that Grandal continues to sign deal way below what pitch-framing-infused WAR would suggest is strong evidence of that claim.

Maybe the White Sox are on the right side of this, but it would be the first time. Their track record for developing and valuing catchers is hilariously bad. 

All that said, he's still better than a mid-tier player, I'll grant that. But it's very likely he isn't actually a 6-win superstar. I'm glad they have him, but the money would have been better spent on elite pitching.

Grandal is a stud man. Sox weren’t going to sign Machado, Cole and Betts so I’m not sure what you were expecting. 

[South Side Fireworks Man]

3 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

So many people continually claimed that Hahn had zero backup plan after missing on Wheeler. Well, signing Keuchel and Gio is a great backup plan. This is a very solid offseason so far. 

Lineup vs righties:

• Robert CF
• Moncada 3B
• Abreu 1B
• Grandal C
• Eloy LF
• Mazara RF
• Anderson SS
• Collins DH
• Madrigal 2B

Rotation:

• Giolito
• Keuchel
• Lopez
• Gonzalez
• Cease

A lineup of Abreu and Grandal as the #3 & #4 hitters and the DH as the #8 hitter is not a very strong lineup. 

They need to add a proven big bat to hit third or cleanup to have a really solid lineup. 

[ptatc]

9 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

But between him and the fact that one of your org's better prospects is also a C/DH and really needs ABs -- it's way further down the list of priorities is my point. 

I know it's not as simple as this because there was WAY more than just money that went into these signings, but purely as a mathematical example:

Would you rather have:

1. Grandal/McCann (~$24M)
2. Keuchel (~$18M)

or

1. McCann/Collins (~$6m)
2. Cole (~$36M)

Because it's the same amount of money. Again, I don't think the White Sox could have signed Cole for $36m/yr, but it's just that this is the way this ends up with the White Sox every time. I just want them to do better then "well, at this point this move was the one left that made the most sense."

The 36 mil isn't the issue for Cole, it's the 9 years. I wouldn't do that for anyone.

[Moan4Yoan]

Here’s an article about Grandal catching Keuchel since he is always painting the corners.

https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/news/dallas-keuchel-yasmani-grandal-join-forces

[Eminor3rd]

1 minute ago, ChiSox1917 said:

FIP doesn't take into account pitchers that generate soft contact - one of Keuchel's strengths 

Correct, and occasionally guys come along who outperform their FIP every year, enough to make a statistically significant argument that it's sustainable

Keuchel is not one of those guys. His career ERA and FIP are right in line.

[hi8is]

4 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Hahn finally put his money where his mouth was.  He missed out on Wheeler but made up for it.  This is a legit offseason that the big boy teams have.

Hell has frozen over. Pigs fly.

[Eminor3rd]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Grandal is a stud man. Sox weren’t going to sign Machado, Cole and Betts so I’m not sure what you were expecting. 

The fact that they were "never going to" sign those guys doesn't give them a pass for not signing those guys.

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The fact that they were "never going to" sign those guys doesn't give them a pass for not signing those guys.

I think it does. The FO is well aware of the restrictions JR places upon them. I'm sure if JR guaranteed them a payroll right around the luxury tax, their approach would be very different. 

[Eminor3rd]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The 36 mil isn't the issue for Cole, it's the 9 years. I wouldn't do that for anyone.

Then you don't get top talent. Be the Reds. Make the playoffs every 15 years when all the stars align.

As an aside, I actually don't think the years have anything to do with it -- and I don't have proof of this, just my read on it -- I think the problem is actually the total dollars. If you're a billionaire (or billion-dollar enterprise), you aren't thinking about your asset 12 months at a time. You're looking long-term. It's how it works with sponsorship contracts, TV deals, etc. The accounting behind it is considering NPV, and is considering all the money spent the moment the deal is signed. I don't think 9 years scared Jerry off at all, I think $324M or whatever is what scared him off. It could be over 20 years and would be even better.

[SoxBlanco]

Just now, Eminor3rd said:

The fact that they were "never going to" sign those guys doesn't give them a pass for not signing those guys.

What if the plan is to fill as many holes as possible this offseason to get this team back to competing for the playoffs, and then once you are competitive again, you make the huge signing (Betts) to push you over the top?

You’ll probably just say there’s no way they sign Betts (and you might be right), but either way, I think this was a necessary first step to move from 72 wins to a playoff contender. 

[Eminor3rd]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

I think it does. The FO is well aware of the restrictions JR places upon them. I'm sure if JR guaranteed them a payroll right around the luxury tax, their approach would be very different. 

That goes strictly against everything the FO has said the past several years. But, even if they DID know that and were just lying to the public, then the only way to do their jobs would be to invest heavily in cutting edge player development like the Rays have done. And they failed at that, too.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

Then you don't get top talent. Be the Reds. Make the playoffs every 15 years when all the stars align.

As an aside, I actually don't think the years have anything to do with it -- and I don't have proof of this, just my read on it -- I think the problem is actually the total dollars. If you're a billionaire (or billion-dollar enterprise), you aren't thinking about your asset 12 months at a time. You're looking long-term. It's how it works with sponsorship contracts, TV deals, etc. The accounting behind it is considering NPV, and is considering all the money spent the moment the deal is signed. I don't think 9 years scared Jerry off at all, I think $324M or whatever is what scared him off. It could be over 20 years and would be even better.

Sorry, I meant from my perspective not the Sox. 

I agree the overall dollars scared JR off.

[Eminor3rd]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

What if the plan is to fill as many holes as possible this offseason to get this team back to competing for the playoffs, and then once you are competitive again, you make the huge signing (Betts) to push you over the top?

You’ll probably just say there’s no way they sign Betts (and you might be right), but either way, I think this was a necessary first step to move from 72 wins to a playoff contender. 

It's a necessary step if in fact there IS another step possible. My worry with these incremental improvements is that they're inefficient; money adds up quickly, and they are now much closer to their eventual spending ceiling than we'd like to admit, and so it better work out really well or it's gonna be another sell off in a couple years.

[ptatc]

Just now, Eminor3rd said:

That goes strictly against everything the FO has said the past several years. But, even if they DID know that and were just lying to the public, then the only way to do their jobs would be to invest heavily in cutting edge player development like the Rays have done. And they failed at that, too.

Depends on the budget they are given for that as well. It took years for them to convince JR to do the rebuild.  I would guess that taking extra money from the MLB team to add to the development group would be a hard sell as well.

The current FO has had their issues but I think it's more on the restrictions placed upon them.

[ChiSox1917]

8 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Correct, and occasionally guys come along who outperform their FIP every year, enough to make a statistically significant argument that it's sustainable

Keuchel is not one of those guys. His career ERA and FIP are right in line.

The other alternative is that his 4.72 FIP that you're so worried about is a blip due to him giving up 1.3 hrs/9 last year.  

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The fact that they were "never going to" sign those guys doesn't give them a pass for not signing those guys.

You can just as easily argue that between Kopech, Cease and Lopez that you already had two in-house TOR starters (if you include Gio).

Just like signing Machado the previous year would have turned out to be unnecessary with the season Moncada had.

If you look at every one of McCann’s seasons and project him ignoring all those red flags but the ignore everything but Keuchel’s abbreviated 2019 season...and don’t even bother extrapolating 0.8, it’s just not the right way to go about interpreting what to expect from either player in 2020.

Keuchel is projected at 2.6/2.7 fWAR, McCann at 0.2 and 0.0.

And very few members of the fanbase are confident...let alone any scouts, in Zack Collins as an everyday catcher.  Not to mention working with so many young and relatively inexperienced pitchers in Kopech, Cease and Dunning.  It’s not like Lucas or Reynaldo are even established...certainly not Lopez after 2019.  
 

And, as it currently stands, Collins will get his shot at platoon DH unless he’s traded or they sign someone like EE.

Edited December 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

Just now, ptatc said:

Depends on the budget they are given for that as well. It took years for them to convince JR to do the rebuild.  I would guess that taking extra money from the MLB team to add to the development group would be a hard sell as well.

The current FO has had their issues but I think it's more on the restrictions placed upon them.

Yeah, for sure, that may be exactly the case. I'm not sure what/who is ACTUALLY the problem, but the net is all the same. I'm not pointing the fingers at anyone specifically, I'm blaming the org as a whole.

[Jose Abreu]

55 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

I wonder if McCann will be Keuchel's personal catcher as well.

 

Well if he's the personal catcher for both Keuchel and Giolito, then Grandal is capped at 98 starts as catcher, which wouldn't make any sense. I think McCann has a much smaller role next year than people anticipate. 

[Eminor3rd]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You can just as easily argue that between Kopech, Cease and Lopez that you already had two in-house TOR starters (if you include Gio).

Just like signing Machado the previous year would have turned out to be unnecessary with the season Moncada had.

If you look at every one of McCann’s seasons and project him ignoring all those red flags but the ignore everything but Keuchel’s abbreviated 2019 season...and don’t even bother extrapolating 0.8, it’s just not the right way to go about interpreting what to expect from either player in 2020.

Keuchel is projected at 2.6/2.7 fWAR, McCann at 0.2 and 0.0.

And very few members of the fanbase are confident...let alone any scouts, in Zack Collins as an everyday catcher.  Not to mention working with so many young and relatively inexperienced pitchers in Kopech, Cease and Dunning.  It’s not like Lucas or Reynaldo are even established...certainly not Lopez after 2019.  

You can argue the between Kopech/Cease/Lopez you COULD have two in-house TOR starters, but not that you "already had" two in-house TOR starters. Just like you can argue that if Tim Anderson repeats his super high BABIP, Moncada doesn't regress at all, Eloy takes a massive step forward, the coaches buck their track record and figure out how to teach Mazara to reach his potential, ROdon comes back perfectly effective from TJ midseason, Robert and Madrigal come up and instantly rake in May, and the entire bullpen stays totally healthy, then the team really has no issues at all.

But that's the problem -- the strategy requires everything (or nearly everything) to go right at once, and when they're going to sign stop-gaps at free agent prices, it doesn;t allow them even to take many shots at everything going right before they have to bail.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Eminor3rd

[SoxAce]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Well if he's the personal catcher for both Keuchel and Giolito, then Grandal is capped at 98 starts as catcher, which wouldn't make any sense. I think McCann has a much smaller role next year than people anticipate. 

Hopefully you're right. I liked that article regarding Keuchel and Flowers. Grandal would be ideal with Keuchel. 

[hi8is]

Starting to feel like 2004 with a different shade.

 

Wouldn’t be surprised to see 2 more FA signings and 1 more trade before the time spring training is in swing.

[caulfield12]

And signing Cole would have required a tenth year from the White Sox or a 10-15% premium on top of the Yankees’ final number.

That’s just not realistic for any team, other than maybe the Dodgers.  And not even LA under Friedman has operated that way...other than giving Kershaw his last huge contract.

Even the 2006 White Sox we’re unlikely to win that type of bidding war...that’s why they supplemented with trades for Javy and Thome (subsidized) instead.

[Eminor3rd]

Ok, I'm sorry, I'm done. I hope this all works out.

I'm just pointing out that, when this team committed to a rebuild, they had a chance to modernize and catch up with the top franchises in MLB. And the result is turning out to be much closer to business as usual. And that's frustrating.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

You can argue the between Kopech/Cease/Lopez you COULD have two in-house TOR starters, but not that you "already had" two in-house TOR starters. Just like you can argue that if Tim Anderson repeats his super high BABIP, Moncada doesn't regress at all, Eloy takes a massive step forward, the coaches buck their track record and figure out how to teach Mazara to reach his potential, ROdon comes back perfectly effective from TJ midseason, Robert and Madrigal come up and instantly rake in May, and the entire bullpen stays totally healthy, then the team really has no issues at all.

But that's the problem -- the strategy requires everything (or nearly everything) to go right at once, and when they're going to sign stop-gaps at free agent prices, it doesn;t allow them even to take many shots at everything going right before they have to bail.

Sure, but that’s going into this year expecting Robert and Madrigal to struggle, like typical Sox rookies.

While TA and McCann are obvious regression candidates...McCann was already looking at more limited playing time and Madrigal and Anderson are really going to be a nice combination that brings out the best in Timmy.  His concentration/focus should be dialed up finally getting the opportunity to play for a competitive team that expects to win.   Same with Abreu, defensively.   
 

Theres no obvious reason for Moncada to struggle with all the offensive firepower we have to support him, as well as the presence of Grandal and Robert.   If anything, I’m more concerned with Bummer and Colome closing out games that are actually important.