Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Ok, I'm sorry, I'm done. I hope this all works out.

I'm just pointing out that, when this team committed to a rebuild, they had a chance to modernize and catch up with the top franchises in MLB. And the result is turning out to be much closer to business as usual. And that's frustrating.

There’s no reason to apologize.

I decided that complaining incessantly for the rest of the offseason about missing on Wheeler is pointless, so I’m going to attempt to be optimistic.

Let the chips fall where they may.  Even if it’s a repeat of Robertson/Cabrera/LaRoche or bringing in guys like Shark or Frazier, just sheer luck would dictate that eventually things have to break the White Sox way...at some point.

They already are, in a way, with Minnesota falling back and the Indians closer to rebuilding/retooling than contending on the fly.

[joejoesox]

massive overpay for Keuchel, honestly surprised by the reaction here though I don't have time to read every post

 

wonder what Ryu is asking for

[hi8is]

2 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

wonder what Ryu is asking for

A new arm? 

[chw42]

9 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

massive overpay for Keuchel, honestly surprised by the reaction here though I don't have time to read every post

 

wonder what Ryu is asking for

I don't think the Sox were ever that interested in him because of his injury history. They wanted Keuchel cause he was the best bet to give us innings consistently.

[ChiSox1917]

24 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

massive overpay for Keuchel, honestly surprised by the reaction here though I don't have time to read every post

 

wonder what Ryu is asking for

The guy has been a top 5 lefty in all of baseball for the last 5 years.  How is this an overpay???

[joejoesox]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

The guy has been a top 5 lefty in all of baseball for the last 5 years.  How is this an overpay???

Not a fan of his advanced stats, his WHIP is very 'meh' 

Edited December 22, 2019 by joesaiditstrue

[lasttriptotulsa]

18 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

Not a fan of his advanced stats, his WHIP is very 'meh' 

His WHIP? Really? That is not an advanced stat.

Edited December 22, 2019 by lasttriptotulsa

[joejoesox]

1 minute ago, lasttriptotulsa said:

His WHIP? Really? That is not an advanced stat.

I should've said, "Also, his WHIP".  I know it isn't an advanced stat

[OmarComing25]

Keuchel’s FIP was nearly a run higher than his ERA, however his xwOBA nearly exactly matched his actual wOBA, which suggests his ERA is a better predictor of his performance going forward. Would anyone be disappointed with a 3.75ish ERA next season?

[caulfield12]

56 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

Keuchel’s FIP was nearly a run higher than his ERA, however his xwOBA nearly exactly matched his actual wOBA, which suggests his ERA is a better predictor of his performance going forward. Would anyone be disappointed with a 3.75ish ERA next season?

3.5-3.75 is realistic for the AL.   With how bad Detroit and KC are, 3.25 isn’t out of the question.  

Wheeler was almost at 4 in the NL East, and that division is getting tougher and tougher.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/sheehan-how-to-lose-a-fan-in-four-months/

Talks about how rebuilding/tanking teams are hurting MLB attendance, and teams trying to legitimately compete are reaping benefits, conversely

Edited December 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28348619/are-white-sox-mlb-contenders-their-reinforced-rotation

The bigger unknown is the rotation. Keuchel and Gonzalez are risks in that they don't fit the prototype of what most teams are looking for these days: high velocity, high spin, four-seamers up in the zone. But both veterans know how to pitch. With Keuchel, you know what you're going to get: ground balls and that bulldog mentality. His OPS allowed, however, has increased from .619 to .704 to .764 the past three seasons, although the Happy Fun Ball affected everybody in 2019. There isn't No. 1 or No. 2 upside here, but he's a safe bet to post an ERA around 4.00 and chew up innings.

Gonzalez was one of the most durable starters in the game until last season, when he made 17 starts and pitched just 87 innings. He has lived on the edge the past of couple seasons, averaging 4.1 walks per nine while his strikeout rate has dipped. He never has been a command guy, but the fact that he got just $5 million suggests the lack of interest in him. He could end up being a huge bargain, but there is also high flameout potential here given his age and peripheral numbers.

.....

After going 72-90 in 2019, are these additions enough to make the White Sox a contender? Grandal, coming off a .246/.380/468 season with 28 home runs, is the big signing, but this is mostly improving in small ways around the edges, and I say that as a fan of Keuchel. The money is a little surprising given that nobody wanted him a year ago and he didn't sign with the Braves until June, but he still factors as an upgrade in a rotation that had a 5.30 ERA last season.

.....

The White Sox will be a popular sleeper pick. I still have them behind the Twins and Indians and I'm not convinced they're more than a .500 team at the moment, but I'm also lower on the White Sox than most. One thing for sure, however: This will be the most interesting White Sox team in 15 years, and with young talent in Moncada, Jimenez, Anderson, Robert and Madrigal it will be one of the top must-watch teams of 2020.

 

This article pretty much backs up Eminor’s line of reasoning.   Pushes for another addition, like Castellanos or EE at DH.  Skeptical about Mazara, Gio Gonzalez, Reynaldo Lopez, Tim Anderson, etc.

Edited December 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

An ideal 2020 season for the White Sox sees two or more of Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease or Reynaldo López tapping into their top-end stuff and rendering Keuchel to a back-end role for which he’s more than qualified. But the Sox are not a ready-made playoff contender adding finishing pieces for a World Series run. They have talent, but still only won 72 games last year, and run the risk of not being ready to contend for the division title until Keuchel is on a steeper portion of his downslope.

Keuchel is a player to add when your team is getting serious, and he will make over $18 million because his track record deserves it, but is no longer someone to drag the Sox from irrelevance to championships by himself. No free agent really is, and at least the White Sox can get that pretense out of the way early, and continue to talk about how this effort is dependent on their young star core growing, and surrounding them with supporting players who won’t screw it up for them.

As it turns out, even those supporting players are pretty expensive on the open market, and this winter, the White Sox can claim they’re ready and willing to pay.

https://theathletic.com/1479468/2019/12/21/dallas-keuchel-is-a-key-addition-for-the-white-sox-and-an-even-more-crucial-statement/


https://sports.yahoo.com/report-dallas-keuchel-agrees-to-deal-with-white-sox-005643827.html

That version of Keuchel will be a huge help to the White Sox, who will also benefit from Keuchel’s postseason experience and clubhouse leadership. The downside of Keuchel is that he doesn’t blow anybody away with his stuff. He relies on his sinker and changeup, trying to get soft contact out of opponents.

It worked great when he was with the Houston Astros in his first seven seasons. He won the Cy Young in Houston in 2015, going 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA. It was one of three sub-3.00 ERA seasons for Keuchel in Houston.

Overall, the White Sox have an interesting mix with Keuchel and fellow veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez joining the rotation this week. Chicago also has a quartet of up-and-coming right-handers that's led by Lucas Giolito. The signing of Keuchel further indicates they believe 2020 will be a breakthrough season.

Fegan, for The Athletic, far and away, is the best White Sox writer

Edited December 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

So many people continually claimed that Hahn had zero backup plan after missing on Wheeler. Well, signing Keuchel and Gio is a great backup plan. This is a very solid offseason so far. 

Lineup vs righties:

• Robert CF
• Moncada 3B
• Abreu 1B
• Grandal C
• Eloy LF
• Mazara RF
• Anderson SS
• Collins DH
• Madrigal 2B

Rotation:

• Giolito
• Keuchel
• Lopez
• Gonzalez
• Cease

I know we thrive on negativity on Soxtalk but I gotta say...there is not a single batter in your lineup that I don't want to watch hit.  There's not a single pitcher on your list that I would be angry about having tickets for his start.  This is about entertainment...and I love dreaming that Madrigal is going to be Rod Carew, that Robert is going to be Ken Griffey Junior, Vaughan is going to be Frank Thomas, Eloy will hit 50 home runs a year and they won't even be the best player on the field.  I love the idea that Kopech, Cease, Rodon and Giolito could create a late 90's Brave-like rotation.  My god we suffered through the 2018 tank year where Yolmer, Engel, Palka, Davidson, Navarez and Avisail were 6 of our top 9 batters by at bats and Dylan Covey, James Shields and Hector Santiago were three of our top 6 starters by IP.  But  past is prologue.  i think we are on the cusp of something amazing.    

[poppysox]

9 hours ago, Heads22 said:

 

This was a good way to compromise and get the deal done.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

But between him and the fact that one of your org's better prospects is also a C/DH and really needs ABs -- it's way further down the list of priorities is my point. 

I know it's not as simple as this because there was WAY more than just money that went into these signings, but purely as a mathematical example:

Would you rather have:

1. Grandal/McCann (~$24M)
2. Keuchel (~$18M)

or

1. McCann/Collins (~$6m)
2. Cole (~$36M)

Because it's the same amount of money. Again, I don't think the White Sox could have signed Cole for $36m/yr, but it's just that this is the way this ends up with the White Sox every time. I just want them to do better then "well, at this point this move was the one left that made the most sense."

This is absolutely ridiculous.  I’m not even suggesting you don’t have a point, but the way you have framed this is absolutely disingenuous.  You’ve ignored that fact that Cole’s contract 2.5x of that Grandal & Keuchel and all the long-term risk that comes with it.  And let’s be honest, Grandal’s four year deal did not prevent us from signing Cole.  Right or wrong, it’s paying him $36M/season in years 5 through 8 that scared us off from even pursuing him.

Also, suggesting Grandal wasn’t a slam dunk signing is one of the most bizarre takes I have ever seen from someone who is incredibly stats oriented.  You feel adding one of the best catchers in baseball history is bad because of Zach fucking Collins?  With a future core of Moncada, Anderson, Madrigal, Vaughn, Jimenez, & Robert that left three total spots to add to in RF, DH, & C.  Passing on Grandal because of Collins and one year of McCann would have been the definition of insanity.  He was a perfect addition for an organization in desperate need of OBP, left-handing hitting, & framing.

[caulfield12]

We can bemoan the fact that our biggest contract now is potentially two $74 million deals...but that’s probably the most optimal approach for an organization that has never believed in investing a huge percentage of payroll in just 2-3 players.

Grandal and a Keuchel run the risk of being on the downside in our most competitive years, but they’re two highly respected veteran leaders with playoff and World Series experience.  In that sense, they will complement Abreu, Anderson and Madrigal quite well in terms of the leadership mix.

We absolutely had to create more predictability for the rotation moving forward...there was no way around it.

Whether these are incremental changes...improvements around the edges...or the kind of moves that bump us up to 85-87 wins, we’ll know soon enough.

We finally have a season to really look forward to in anticipation for the first time in ages.

The 2013 Royals finished 86-76 and third place in the Central...this team looks to be trending in that same exact direction.  And we have the payroll space to add at mid season, but do so in a way not to avoid negatively impacting the team of 2024-26 and beyond.

The big question is whether it’s a 3-4 year window or can it be extended to 5-6?   Even the Cubs reached their limit at four, but they really peaked early and then faded.   (They also have a more competitive division to deal with, other than the Pirates, who actually give them fits recently.)

[The Sir]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I know we thrive on negativity on Soxtalk but I gotta say...there is not a single batter in your lineup that I don't want to watch hit.  There's not a single pitcher on your list that I would be angry about having tickets for his start.  This is about entertainment...and I love dreaming that Madrigal is going to be Rod Carew, that Robert is going to be Ken Griffey Junior, Vaughan is going to be Frank Thomas, Eloy will hit 50 home runs a year and they won't even be the best player on the field.  I love the idea that Kopech, Cease, Rodon and Giolito could create a late 90's Brave-like rotation.  My god we suffered through the 2018 tank year where Yolmer, Engel, Palka, Davidson, Navarez and Avisail were 6 of our top 9 batters by at bats and Dylan Covey, James Shields and Hector Santiago were three of our top 6 starters by IP.  But  past is prologue.  i think we are on the cusp of something amazing.    

As a fan, this is worth so much. I'm not in Chicago much anymore, but I did visit in 2015 and got Sox tickets. John Danks was pitching. Missed out on Sale, Quintana, and Rodon, and got 2015 Danks. It was amazing having my wife and kid at that special place, and we won, but damn if that wasn't a bit of a letdown.

Having stretches of Yolmer, Engel, Cordell, and Castillo, or some of those other disasters you mentioned...well, it was nice having innings where I could safely march off and take a nice, long shit. Guess what? We don't have that anymore!

From a tactical baseball perspective, some of the pessimists on here are freaking out about WAR. I really don't care about that at all. Someone find me the weakness on this team. A month or two into the season, and the "easiest" stretch for an opposing pitcher will be something like McCann-Mazara-Madrigal. The "easiest" possible slate for a team coming to play three games in Chitown will probably be Gonzalez, Lopez, and Cease. No more do opposing fans and players get to dream about beating up on any combination of Sanchez, Tilson, Detwiler, Santiago, Covey and whoever. We are much more solid from top to bottom.

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I know we thrive on negativity on Soxtalk but I gotta say...there is not a single batter in your lineup that I don't want to watch hit.  There's not a single pitcher on your list that I would be angry about having tickets for his start.  This is about entertainment...and I love dreaming that Madrigal is going to be Rod Carew, that Robert is going to be Ken Griffey Junior, Vaughan is going to be Frank Thomas, Eloy will hit 50 home runs a year and they won't even be the best player on the field.  I love the idea that Kopech, Cease, Rodon and Giolito could create a late 90's Brave-like rotation.  My god we suffered through the 2018 tank year where Yolmer, Engel, Palka, Davidson, Navarez and Avisail were 6 of our top 9 batters by at bats and Dylan Covey, James Shields and Hector Santiago were three of our top 6 starters by IP.  But  past is prologue.  i think we are on the cusp of something amazing.    

I love this post!

[EloyJenkins]

The more I think about Grandals framing and Keuchels pitching style, the more I think a 3.25ish ERA is really possible. I wanted Strasburg (way too expensive) or Wheeler ( bridezilla), but this move is really solid to be competitive. They won't win a world series with Keuchel as their #2, but if Giolito is a top ten pitcher and Kopech or Cease hit their ceilings, 2021 has quite a good rotation

[caulfield12]

42 minutes ago, The Sir said:

As a fan, this is worth so much. I'm not in Chicago much anymore, but I did visit in 2015 and got Sox tickets. John Danks was pitching. Missed out on Sale, Quintana, and Rodon, and got 2015 Danks. It was amazing having my wife and kid at that special place, and we won, but damn if that wasn't a bit of a letdown.

Having stretches of Yolmer, Engel, Cordell, and Castillo, or some of those other disasters you mentioned...well, it was nice having innings where I could safely march off and take a nice, long shit. Guess what? We don't have that anymore!

From a tactical baseball perspective, some of the pessimists on here are freaking out about WAR. I really don't care about that at all. Someone find me the weakness on this team. A month or two into the season, and the "easiest" stretch for an opposing pitcher will be something like McCann-Mazara-Madrigal. The "easiest" possible slate for a team coming to play three games in Chitown will probably be Gonzalez, Lopez, and Cease. No more do opposing fans and players get to dream about beating up on any combination of Sanchez, Tilson, Detwiler, Santiago, Covey and whoever. We are much more solid from top to bottom.

Defense, the bullpen, Mazara, DH...those are the four obvious weak points.  Five, if you lump all the young/unproven starting pitchers, especially the ones coming off injury like Kopech and Dunning.   Cease and Lopez are complete wild cards at the moment.  

[Steve9347]

Pretty fun meltdowns happening over on Twins Reddit:

 

[bmags]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

3.5-3.75 is realistic for the AL.   With how bad Detroit and KC are, 3.25 isn’t out of the question.  

Wheeler was almost at 4 in the NL East, and that division is getting tougher and tougher.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/sheehan-how-to-lose-a-fan-in-four-months/

Talks about how rebuilding/tanking teams are hurting MLB attendance, and teams trying to legitimately compete are reaping benefits, conversely

Yeah I think this is a bit too optimistic. I’m expecting around 4 ERA and that’s not terrible in AL. 3.25 would likely make him our best pitcher.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

We can bemoan the fact that our biggest contract now is potentially two $74 million deals...but that’s probably the most optimal approach for an organization that has never believed in investing a huge percentage of payroll in just 2-3 players.

Grandal and a Keuchel run the risk of being on the downside in our most competitive years, but they’re two highly respected veteran leaders with playoff and World Series experience.  In that sense, they will complement Abreu, Anderson and Madrigal quite well in terms of the leadership mix.

We absolutely had to create more predictability for the rotation moving forward...there was no way around it.

Whether these are incremental changes...improvements around the edges...or the kind of moves that bump us up to 85-87 wins, we’ll know soon enough.

We finally have a season to really look forward to in anticipation for the first time in ages.

The 2013 Royals finished 86-76 and third place in the Central...this team looks to be trending in that same exact direction.  And we have the payroll space to add at mid season, but do so in a way not to avoid negatively impacting the team of 2024-26 and beyond.

The big question is whether it’s a 3-4 year window or can it be extended to 5-6?   Even the Cubs reached their limit at four, but they really peaked early and then faded.   (They also have a more competitive division to deal with, other than the Pirates, who actually give them fits recently.)

This is probably right. 
 

But to me the big question is actually whether we have made a relevant enough 3-4 year window. 
 

Are we better than the Yankees or Astros? Not yet. So we still need quite a bit of luck in development.

[EloyJenkins]

Not sure if posted yet... But really nice breakdown.

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/dallas-keuchel-yasmani-grandal-join-forces.html

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, bmags said:

This is probably right. 
 

But to me the big question is actually whether we have made a relevant enough 3-4 year window. 
 

Are we better than the Yankees or Astros? Not yet. So we still need quite a bit of luck in development.

At this point, what you're hoping for in development becomes enough to propel the team to a level of contention.

While they still need things to break well for them, the things they need to break well are realistic expectations for some of the young pieces - as opposed to being top end outcomes. Theyve now put themselves in a position that of Michael kopech is a star... or Dylan cease is a star, they actually can compete at the top.  If neither were any good this was always going to be a struggle.

I dont love Keuchel but I understand his fit and baseball games finally matter again! To sox fans that are upset and/or disappointed I honestly have no idea what their expectations were. The sox offered the most to wheeler and didnt get him so they got a dependable and reliable starter.