Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option

[michelangelosmonkey]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

This is probably right. 
 

But to me the big question is actually whether we have made a relevant enough 3-4 year window. 
 

Are we better than the Yankees or Astros? Not yet. So we still need quite a bit of luck in development.

Yes but i think we've had quite a bit of BAD luck in development. i count 9 of the Sox top 25 prospects that missed major parts of last season due to injury. (Kopech, Dunning, Basabe, Adolfo, Burger, Lambert, Hamilton, Burdi, Flores).  Ten when you add Rodon who most thought would be the ace of the staff this year.  If six of the ten come back and show signs of reaching their former potential...suddenly our minors are stacked again and we have  the tools to make a major trade.  We aren't the Astros yet but it is not a stretch to see the pieces falling into place. 

[BackDoorBreach]

He's a solid #4 on a good team.  He doesn't put us over the top but if he can continue to eat a bunch of innings I'm okay with it.  You really have to hope Giolito remains and one of Kopech/Cease emerges as a #2.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

After further thought, I think it's more important that this signing was actually available to pitch than it was that he was great when he pitched. Ryu was a nice thought but investing in a starter who doesnt start would have been the worst thing this team could of done. I understand leaning towards Keuchel in the choice between the two given that they already had top of the rotation talents and needed someone that could give them 200 innings.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

He's a solid #4 on a good team.  He doesn't put us over the top but if he can continue to eat a bunch of innings I'm okay with it.  You really have to hope Giolito remains and one of Kopech/Cease emerges as a #2.

Yeah but this team always needed  that to happen. Heck, maybe they get a surprise and stiever is a top line guy. They had a lot of high end stuff talent; keuchel is a really nice change of pace and he knows how to pitch.

[soxfan49]

I could end up being incorrect but to me, Ryu seems set on staying west, maybe as far east as Arlington, TX.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

At this point you can genuinely argue that the sox are banking on a realistic set of outcomes from their top prospects as opposed to betting on them all reaching their top 10% outcomes. 

[BackDoorBreach]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah but this team always needed  that to happen. Heck, maybe they get a surprise and stiever is a top line guy. They had a lot of high end stuff talent; keuchel is a really nice change of pace and he knows how to pitch.

Sure, my point is you have less wiggle room now with DK over someone like Wheeler who could have added another 1.5-2 WAR.

The floor has essentially lowered.  If Kopech and Cease hit it won't matter in the long run.

[scotty22hotty]

a lot of armchair analysts are claiming Dallas is a 4/5 and their main (only?) argument is his low fWAR or 4.72 fip but fail to mention his xfip for 2019 (where he missed ST and 1/3rd of season) was on par with Wheeler. Use the average of his stats over the past 3 seasons and try to claim hes a 4/5 ?

 

 

[BackDoorBreach]

Just now, scotty22hotty said:

a lot of armchair analysts are claiming Dallas is a 4/5 and their main (only?) argument is his low fWAR or 4.72 fip but fail to mention his xfip for 2019 (where he missed ST and 1/3rd of season) was on par with Wheeler. Use the average of his stats over the past 3 seasons and try to claim hes a 4/5 ?

 

 

Wheeler has a ton more upside than 32 year old DK.  Especially over 3-5 years.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Lastly, the sox have maintained quite a bit of financial flexibility even after these signings this off season.. they've also lined the end of the deals up well with the core getting more expensive. 

They also left plenty of money to add one more impact player next off season if they see certain players weren't working out.

[pcq]

Just now, Sarava said:

I'd like that clarified. Is it 160 innings total for the last 2 years or 160 inings each year? 160 innings for 2 seasons could be an injury riddled pitcher that still vests.

Most likely 160 per year and not an easy goal. Brave trolls going off on Keuchel at rumor central because he had a fail in the playoffs. Wish we had enough native guys to step up instead of the 4A trash they are acquiring for the minors. 

[Chicago White Sox]

26 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

After further thought, I think it's more important that this signing was actually available to pitch than it was that he was great when he pitched. Ryu was a nice thought but investing in a starter who doesnt start would have been the worst thing this team could of done. I understand leaning towards Keuchel in the choice between the two given that they already had top of the rotation talents and needed someone that could give them 200 innings.

I was pushing for Ryu, but in hindsight I do agree.  I’m not the biggest Keuchel fan in the world, but we desperately needed a reliable veteran starter that can eat innings and stabilize a young rotation.  He does just that with a much different look than our young arms.  His elite pitchability gives me hope he can remain productive over the life of the contract.  If not, the size of the contract won’t be a huge burden to overcome.

The challenge now is building a top of a rotation that can go to war in the playoffs.  Giolito has already taken that next step, but this moves puts a ton of pressure on Kopech & Cease to both ascend to #2 / #3 levels.  I believe in both guys, but you just never know with young pitching.  That being said, a year from now we may have the chips to add a stud starting pitcher via trade that we don’t have at the moment (2020 1st rounder plus ascending value for guys like Dunning, Stiever, Dalquist, & Thompson).  Hopefully it doesn’t come to that but we should have options.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Chicago White Sox

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I was pushing for Ryu, but in hindsight I do agree.  I’m not the biggest Keuchel fan in the world, but we desperately needed a reliable veteran starter that can eat innings and stabilize a young rotation.  He does just that with a much different look than our young arms.  His elite pitchability gives me hope he can remain productive over the life of the contract.  If not, the size of the contract won’t be a huge burden to overcome.

The challenge now is building a top of a rotation that can go to war in the playoffs.  Giolito has already taken that next step, but this moves puts a ton of pressure on Kopech & Cease to both ascend to #2 / #3 levels.  I believe in both guys, but you just never know with young pitching.  That being said, a year from now we may have the chips to add a stud starting pitcher via trade that we don’t have at the moment (2020 1st rounder plus ascending value for guys like Dunning, Stiever, Dalquist, & Thompson).  Hopefully it doesn’t come to that but should have options.

Yeah, they left themselves enough money available that they still have another big signing in their back pocket if they need to use it.

They have enough questionable but hopeful arm talent (stiever, Lambert, dunning and the young guys) that they can bank on 2 of their prospects reaching ceilings.

Giolito can match up vs anyone's 1 right now. Hell maybe the sox get a surprise and reylo puts it together with this little push. The important thing is they now have a realistic hope.

[caulfield12]

28 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

At this point, what you're hoping for in development becomes enough to propel the team to a level of contention.

While they still need things to break well for them, the things they need to break well are realistic expectations for some of the young pieces - as opposed to being top end outcomes. Theyve now put themselves in a position that of Michael kopech is a star... or Dylan cease is a star, they actually can compete at the top.  If neither were any good this was always going to be a struggle.

I dont love Keuchel but I understand his fit and baseball games finally matter again! To sox fans that are upset and/or disappointed I honestly have no idea what their expectations were. The sox offered the most to wheeler and didnt get him so they got a dependable and reliable starter. 

In the end, do you really want the player that only hesitatingly joins your organization...when his heart is somewhere else?

You can’t force things.  Odds are that giving Wheeler $130+ million would have come back to bite them at some point...and probably when we most needed him.

It’s still probably a more cost-efficient general policy to develop your own pitching and only spend $100+ million on position players.  The Sox recent struggles with Rodon, Fulmer, Hansen and Burdi show just how hard that is to do.
 

But we’re finally due for some better days.

 

[ThunderStruck]

7 hours ago, joesaiditstrue said:

massive overpay for Keuchel, honestly surprised by the reaction here though I don't have time to read every post

Everyone has a right to complain but not even close to massive overpay. People will complain sox dont spend money then when they do they complain they spent too much. 

I understand people being disappointed that wheeler is not a sox. But they had top offer. Besides I wouldn't be surprised if keuchel and wheeler have similar numbers. Wheeler has never stepped up and been even close to an ace. 100 million for him is the gross over pay. 

I am excited about the sox signings this offseason. Should make them competitive in the division. Unfortunately they never had a shot at Cole or Strasburg. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Also tip my cap to Hahn. 

It's quite obvious his real off-season plan was:

Grandal, wheeler, mazara (stop gap RF with ceiling) and Gio - that was about as good of a plan as I could have put together.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

In the end, do you really want the player that only hesitatingly joins your organization...when his heart is somewhere else?

You can’t force things.  Odds are that giving Wheeler $130+ million would have come back to bite them at some point...and probably when we most needed him.

It’s still probably a more cost-efficient general policy to develop your own pitching and only spend $100+ million on position players.  The Sox recent struggles with Rodon, Fulmer, Hansen and Burdi show just how hard that is to do.
 

But we’re finally due for some better days.

 

I'm with you here. I was one who said if he doesnt want to be here you move on - you dont just throw another 20 million at him. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, they left themselves enough money available that they still have another big signing in their back pocket if they need to use it.

They have enough questionable but hopeful arm talent (stiever, Lambert, dunning and the young guys) that they can bank on 2 of their prospects reaching ceilings.

Giolito can match up vs anyone's 1 right now. Hell maybe the sox get a surprise and reylo puts it together with this little push. The important thing is they now have a realistic hope.

Stroman would be the obvious choice to add either at mid-season or going into FA a year from now.

The need for a Robbie Ray overpay has been lessened considerably.

[Dick Allen]

Since they apparently weren’t in for Cole or Strasburg, and missed on Wheeler, they pretty much had to hit on one of these guys or things could have become a bit hairy moving on, Keuchel eventually being a huge bargain or a rather large overpay isn’t going to make or break the rebuild, They need him to just be decent. He got what they gave Abreu. Next year the FA crop of starters is thin. A guy like Bauer who claims he only wants one year contracts might be had, but the rest are guys with issues. What the Sox need is two of their young guys to become top of the rotation guys. Giolito seems to be well on his way. Cease, Kopech, Lopez...one of those guys needs to be what many dreamed they would be. If all of them do, great, but at least one really good guy and one serviceable, they should be OK. Guys like Rodon and Dunning obviously are in there too,although I would image Rodon is a short term employee.

Hopefully they are totally committed to spending money and making this team as good as it can be. The better you make the team the fewer times players will turn down your money to play closer to the fiancés family.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Stroman would be the obvious choice to add either at mid-season or going into FA a year from now.

The need for a Robbie Ray overpay has been lessened considerably.

I think if they spend money next off season itll be on a RF. Or they'd go with a high end sp type. 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, ThunderStruck said:

Everyone has a right to complain but not even close to massive overpay. People will complain sox dont spend money then when they do they complain they spent too much. 

I understand people being disappointed that wheeler is not a sox. But they had top offer. Besides I wouldn't be surprised if keuchel and wheeler have similar numbers. Wheeler has never stepped up and been even close to an ace. 100 million for him is the gross over pay. 

I am excited about the sox signings this offseason. Should make them competitive in the division. Unfortunately they never had a shot at Cole or Strasburg. 

Hamels for $18 million on a one year deal would have been better?   Price?   Happ?

Well, we would have had to head back into the market a year from now with 1/2 the pitching inventory on the FA shelf.  

And it didn’t seem like Ryu was ever that interested.   Bumgarner at $85 million was never a great idea, especially since he has never even pitched successfully in the AL and always was a West Coaster at heart.

Finally, starting to dialogue more frequently with Boras might even lead to a favorable conclusion with Rodon, who knows?

[BackDoorBreach]

They have to upgrade RF next year.  They should have plenty of money to do that.  I just don't like the odds when Springer, Mookie, and Joc are the options. I have a feeling Springer takes an extension, Betts is unobtainable, so you put all the chips in on a platoon bat in Joc. 

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think if they spend money next off season itll be on a RF. Or they'd go with a high end sp type. 

Betts, Springer, Pederson and Brantley (more a LFer) are it.  Springer will be in his 30’s, there’s a lot of risk there to giving him a $125-150 million contract.  Pederson is going to mighty expensive for a strictly platoon player.   We could spend that $60-75 million  in much more effective ways.

Ideally, Mazara improves and we can find a platoon partner or part-time DH out of Adolfo/Rutherford.  Eventually, Abreu moves there and Vaughn takes over 1st.  

Collins’ future remains as cloudy as ever.  Trade bait or a replacement for McCann and part-time DH?

And we still need to reallocate Colome and Herrera’s money back into rebuilding the pen before next year.  
 

Lots of moving parts.

[ThunderStruck]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Hamels for $18 million on a one year deal would have been better?   Price?   Happ?

I guess that's where everyone has their own opinion on who is a better player. I would have liked to see hamels. I wouldn't touch price and that contract. In my opinion he is old and washed up and will cost prospects. Happ has higher ceiling but again what do you have to give up to get him?

 

Keuchel wont be the ace. Like it was said earlier you are counting on kopech and giolito for that. I think Keutchel is a dependable left handed innings eater that will keep you in games. 

[ChiSoxJon]

10 hours ago, The Sir said:

I’d put money on Wheeler being a total mediocrity over the course of his deal, regardless of years and money. Much rather have Keuchel.

Yup, much rather Keuchel on 3/54 (or even 4/74) than Zach Wheeler for $118M...literally both solid #3s on a good team

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

You can just as easily argue that between Kopech, Cease and Lopez that you already had two in-house TOR starters (if you include Gio).

Just like signing Machado the previous year would have turned out to be unnecessary with the season Moncada had.

If you look at every one of McCann’s seasons and project him ignoring all those red flags but the ignore everything but Keuchel’s abbreviated 2019 season...and don’t even bother extrapolating 0.8, it’s just not the right way to go about interpreting what to expect from either player in 2020.

Keuchel is projected at 2.6/2.7 fWAR, McCann at 0.2 and 0.0.

And very few members of the fanbase are confident...let alone any scouts, in Zack Collins as an everyday catcher.  Not to mention working with so many young and relatively inexperienced pitchers in Kopech, Cease and Dunning.  It’s not like Lucas or Reynaldo are even established...certainly not Lopez after 2019.  
 

And, as it currently stands, Collins will get his shot at platoon DH unless he’s traded or they sign someone like EE.

Lopez has flashed the stuff of an ace

Kopech hopefully returns to form because he was set to be the ace here

and Cease has been filthy coming up, even compared to Verlander...this rotation can be disgusting for years to come if all goes well

Hopefully Gio can replicate last season as well if he doesn't even further progress