Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, ThunderStruck said:

I guess that's where everyone has their own opinion on who is a better player. I would have liked to see hamels. I wouldn't touch price and that contract. In my opinion he is old and washed up and will cost prospects. Happ has higher ceiling but again what do you have to give up to get him?

 

Keuchel wont be the ace. Like it was said earlier you are counting on kopech and giolito for that. I think Keutchel is a dependable left handed innings eater that will keep you in games. 

You’re taking a big gamble then having to go back out and sign Ray, Stroman or Bauer from next year’s class.   Paxton and Tanaka, at least one of them will remain in NY, probably Tanaka on a lesser 2-3 year deal to finish his career there.

[pcq]

Just now, Jose Abreu said:

Well if he's the personal catcher for both Keuchel and Giolito, then Grandal is capped at 98 starts as catcher, which wouldn't make any sense. I think McCann has a much smaller role next year than people anticipate. 

It's a new day and 100 games at catcher is plenty. First-half McCann is good enough to play as well. I am more concerned that we would count on Reylo and Cease for playoff contention followed by Kopech and Rodon which makes 2020 a coin flip. 

[ChiSoxJon]

1 minute ago, pcq said:

It's a new day and 100 games at catcher is plenty. First-half McCann is good enough to play as well. I am more concerned that we would count on Reylo and Cease for playoff contention followed by Kopech and Rodon which makes 2020 a coin flip. 

James McCann was less than ideal after the ASG so we will see if that AS nod was a fluke (unfortunately think it was), but still a solid backup

[bmags]

11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Betts, Springer, Pederson and Brantley (more a LFer) are it.  Springer will be in his 30’s, there’s a lot of risk there to giving him a $125-150 million contract.  Pederson is going to mighty expensive for a strictly platoon player.   We could spend that $60-75 million  in much more effective ways.

Ideally, Mazara improves and we can find a platoon partner or part-time DH out of Adolfo/Rutherford.  Eventually, Abreu moves there and Vaughn takes over 1st.  

Collins’ future remains as cloudy as ever.  Trade bait or a replacement for McCann and part-time DH?

And we still need to reallocate Colome and Herrera’s money back into rebuilding the pen before next year.  
 

Lots of moving parts.

Obviously I shouldn’t think of these things but I am hoping Rangers trade for Arenado, and nobody acquires price. At that point the contenders for signing a Betts could be quite realistic for Sox to beat assuming they could stop worrying about the age 38 season and focus on the first half decade.

[Buehrle>Wood]

6 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

James McCann was less than ideal after the ASG so we will see if that AS nod was a fluke (unfortunately think it was), but still a solid backup

He was good in August and September. He really just had a horrendous July.

[lostfan]

What I like about this isn't so much that I think Keuchel (and Gio to a similar extent) is going to be a revelation for the Sox so much as he gives them some breathing room they didn't have. If they don't have the best possible scenario with guys like Kopech and Cease and hope Dunning is coming right up behind them, hoping they come back from injuries AND reach their peak potential AND do so immediately, they'll be fine. 

[tray]

9 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

I know I'm going to get shit on for being negative, because everyone is excited that they don't have to watch Dylan Covey pitch all year, and I get that, but looking at this in full context, I hate all of it.

Classic White Sox. Get the 6th best guy on the market for roughly $50M, call it a marquee signing because the guy used to be good.

The guy had a 4.72 FIP last year. Wasn't even worth 1 WAR in 112 innings. He's a fourth starter with the upside to be a 3. 

THIS is what I was afraid of. "The money will be spent" means spending $15-20M on a handful of okay players. It's Melky Cabreras all over again. All the teams that actually get to the playoffs are developing their averageish players and buying the elite talent to truly supplement their core.

Altogether now, the White have committed a bit over $60m next year to:

1. A good catcher to upgrade a spot where they already had a solid player, who may be overvalued because we aren't actually sure how to quantify pitch framing

2. A slightly above average 1B/DH

3. a SP with a near 5 FIP last year, worth just under 1.5 fWAR if you extrapolated to a full season. Steamer project 2.6 next year, mostly on past track record.

4. 34-year old Gio Gonzalez

5. a reclamation project RF who has failed for four seasons now.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have committed $36M to Gerrit Cole, the best pitcher in baseball, who Steamer projects at 6 and half wins. The White Sox spent nearly TWICE as much on a bunch of useful spare parts.

Having missed on the actual difference makers, the White Sox would have been better off just punting until next year, and letting their players continue to develop, to have another shot at a true difference maker in Betts or whatever.

Yeah, I know, if literally everything goes as good as it could go next year, the Sox could win 85-90 games. Everyone is healthy, everyone takes a step forward, no one regresses, etc. But, I'll put it this way: there are only two teams insisting on this strategy of spending inefficient FA money on 5 middle-of-the-road players instead of 2 elite ones -- and it's the White Sox and the Reds. That's your model. Basically the Pirates the last five years.

 

1.Grandal and McCann make for one of the top L/R catching platoons in the major. The move was made for several reasons including the fact that the Sox realized the Collins could not fill the back-up catcher role. As far as the Sox not being certain how to quantify pitch framing, no team should be because the umpire association has been studying tapes and noting which catchers are getting away with stealing strikes. They don't want to be replaced with a camera.

2. Abreu is not only a "slightly above average 1B/DH". He has value to the team beyond hos stats and may have already caused Moncada to start talking about staying in Chicago long terms. Abreu's numbers might even be better with the new Sox line-up, especially if Madrigal proves to be a better on-base guy and there are thunderous bats following Jose.

3. You are actually complaining about Dallas Keuchel because his extrapolated fWar is 2.6. You actually don't know what Covey, Fulmer, Despaigne, etc gave us last season?  He was not signed to be our Ace  and his contract was nothing like Stras or Cole.

4. Gio G is 34 years old. SFW? He was signed as a back of rotation starter or possibly as a long reliever if Rodon comes back and a few other guys step up, including Cease, Kopech, ReyLo and Steiver. But go ahead keep b1tching.

5. a reclamation project in RF who has failed for four seasons?  He started as a 20 year old and won't be 25 until the end of April 2020 so that may not be a bad guy to try to reclaim. His rakes RH pitching which will be helpful as a DH and platoon RF. Maybe the Sox sign Castellanos or another RH bat and the Mazara deal makes even more sense.

 I will bet that the off-season moves that Rick, Kenny and Jerry have made will have the Sox in contention for the play-offs in 2020...and they may not be done yet.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

49 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Lastly, the sox have maintained quite a bit of financial flexibility even after these signings this off season.. they've also lined the end of the deals up well with the core getting more expensive. 

They also left plenty of money to add one more impact player next off season if they see certain players weren't working out.

Outside of bullpen additions, I think the plan next offseason will be to add a legit RF in the event Mazara doesn’t make major progress next year and trade for a stud SP if Cease or Kopech doesn’t show clears signs toward TOR development.

[zisk]

Seems like the old Sox problem of stars and scrubs has been solved. Off season has added a lot of depth. During a 162 game season, this will be a big plus.

[NWINFan]

I'm with Caulfield. We finally can look forward to a season for the first time in ages.  Will they win the AL Central? Maybe not. But it's nice to have some hope. 

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

He was good in August and September. He really just had a horrendous July.

Yup

[caulfield12]

Keuchel is not exactly a pure “stuff” guy but knows how to pitch and his sinker will play well in hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. His 60.1% ground-ball rate last season with the Braves was the highest of 152 pitchers with at least 250 batted balls induced.

• Keuchel, Grandal an ideal match of skills

His 2.3 degree average launch angle allowed was the lowest of that same 152-pitcher group. Think Mark Buehrle, the former White Sox All-Star hurler, as a comparison. Keuchel was one of the top starting pitchers remaining on the market, along with Hyun-Jin Ryu. The 31-year-old, who turns 32 on New Year’s Day, had a 3.75 ERA in 19 starts for the Braves last season, with 91 strikeouts in 112 2/3 innings, after signing with Atlanta in June.

An eight-year veteran, Keuchel won the 2015 American League Cy Young Award and the '17 World Series with the Astros. He has a 3.47 ERA in 12 career postseason games.

Scott Merkin/Mlb.com

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/dallas-keuchel-yasmani-grandal-join-forces

Great article on why Grandal and Keuchel should be so effective together

 

Only two regular starting pitchers stayed out of the heart of the zone more often than Keuchel in 2019: Gio Gonzalez -- now Keuchel's teammate in Chicago -- and Zach Davies. Both Gonzalez and Davies were Brewers last season. Guess who was their catcher in Milwaukee?

When you throw to the margins to the degree Keuchel does, you want a catcher who can turn those pitches into strikes even if the hitter lays off. That's where Grandal comes in.

Grandal's pitch framing saved the Brewers 13 runs last season, according to Statcast's framing metric, which is based on how often a catcher gets called strikes on those same borderline pitches Keuchel loves to throw. Grandal's plus-13 framing runs was second-best of any catcher.

Most framing runs saved by catchers in 2019
1. Austin Hedges: +20
2. Yasmani Grandal: +13
2. Tyler Flowers: +13
4. Roberto Pérez: +12
5. Christian Vázquez: +11

In 2019, Grandal got called strikes on 51.1 percent of the borderline pitches he received (as in, ones that the hitter took, where the catcher's framing actually matters). The average for Major League catchers was 48.4 percent.

 

Edited December 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[Vote4Pedro]

One more big acquisition preferably a bat like JDM and some bullpen help, call it an offseason and let’s f*****g go!!!

[ThunderStruck]

34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You’re taking a big gamble then having to go back out and sign Ray, Stroman or Bauer from next year’s class.   Paxton and Tanaka, at least one of them will remain in NY, probably Tanaka on a lesser 2-3 year deal to finish his career there.

I guess we just have different opinions on things. I feel wheeler and price are much more of a risk. Guess we will see.

[ThunderStruck]

8 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

I'm with Caulfield. We finally can look forward to a season for the first time in ages.  Will they win the AL Central? Maybe not. But it's nice to have some hope.

Couldn't agree more. I'm looking forward to the season to start!

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, HahnsKiddieTable said:

One more big acquisition preferably a bat like JDM and some bullpen help, call it an offseason and let’s f*****g go!!!

Not happening.  It’s EE, Castellanos or letting Collins hit for at least half a season against mostly RHP.

[BackDoorBreach]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Not happening.  It’s EE, Castellanos or letting Collins hit for at least half a season against mostly RHP.

Pretty much this.

Even though I don't want a DH, I would absolutely take JDM though.  

[Vote4Pedro]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Not happening.  It’s EE, Castellanos or letting Collins hit for at least half a season against mostly RHP.

I’d be more than okay with Castellanos, EE is good for 1-2 more years but if you could get Boston some salary relief for JDM and work out a new contract with him that to me is the ideal route to go down. Collins in my opinion is expendable at this point.

Edited December 22, 2019 by HahnsKiddieTable

[BackDoorBreach]

Bruce Levine just said this solidifies playoff push.  Eh.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, HahnsKiddieTable said:

I’d be more than okay with Castellanos, EE is good for 1-2 more years but if you could get Boston some salary relief for JDM and work out a new contract with him that to me is the ideal route to go down. Collins in my opinion is expendable at this point.

How do you fit JDM in with Abreu & Vaughn locking up 1B & DH for 2021 & 2022?  This is why EE makes so much sense because he’ll only be a one year commitment.

[Vote4Pedro]

1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Bruce Levine just said this solidifies playoff push.  Eh.

In the AL Central with how weak it is, I believe it. Doing much outside of that I’m still skeptical. 

[NWINFan]

2 minutes ago, ThunderStruck said:

Couldn't agree more. I'm looking forward to the season to start!

I am looking forward to the season to start as well, and I can't say I can remember when I felt that way. I understood the strategy behind the rebuild, but watching some of the awful losing was hard to take. And going through a whole decade without going to the playoffs was also hard to take.

Some posters have pointed out that the Sox again have passed on the top flight fee agents. Let's face it. They will never spend like the Yankees or other big market teams. The key is to at least spend some and spend wisely. The club had to address the rotation and it did. Now we have to hope young arms will develop. That is how a rebuild works, and so there is still progress to be made.

I speculate about several things: As the new decade begins, are the White Sox truly committed to rebuilding this franchise? Can they build a more solid fan base? Can they establish credibility as a first rate major league team? That is what has been at stake with this rebuild, not just short-term winning. 100 years ago they suffered in the aftermath of the Black Sox scandal. I don't think the team ever recovered from that scandal. Better late than never. It's time to do it now. This off-season is only a start. It's time to begin a new type of history. Does the FO realize this? Is it up to it?

[Vote4Pedro]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How do you fit JDM in with Abreu & Vaughn locking up 1B & DH for 2021 & 2022?  This is why EE makes so much sense because he’ll only be a one year commitment.

Vaughn in my opinion hasn’t locked up anything. He is still just a prospect even if he is highly looked at, who I would gladly place as our everyday 1B in 2021. Abreu is what he is, probably better suited at a bench player in year 3 of his deal. In my opinion if you can get JDM go do it and work the rest out later. It’s a good problem to have.

[Moan4Yoan]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Not happening.  It’s EE, Castellanos or letting Collins hit for at least half a season against mostly RHP.

You just throw Castellanos in there with one guy who will get 1/$10 and Collins?

At this point, Castellanos isn’t very likely.

[shakes]

15 minutes ago, HahnsKiddieTable said:

Vaughn in my opinion hasn’t locked up anything. He is still just a prospect even if he is highly looked at, who I would gladly place as our everyday 1B in 2021. Abreu is what he is, probably better suited at a bench player in year 3 of his deal. In my opinion if you can get JDM go do it and work the rest out later. It’s a good problem to have.

And if there is any sustained success, at some point one of the big name young players/prospects will be dealt to fill a need. Vaughn may be that guy. I agree just keep getting good players. 

That's why I'm excited by the DK signing. Spend money and don't give up assets now. For anyone who thinks this was an overpay, it's not. This is what paying market value looks like. If this contract hurts future success a lot of other things went wrong.