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Aggregate numbers - will the retooled Sox be better than league average in runs scored, runs allowed, and HRs?

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VAfan

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I'm sure there are better numbers guys out there than me, but I thought I would start a thread about whether the 2020 Sox will be able to move above league average in runs scored, runs allowed, and HRs. 

Here were the numbers in 2019.

Runs scored - Sox 708, league avg 782

Runs allowed - Sox 832, league avg 782

Home runs - Sox 182, league average 226

Why look at this? The first two numbers could be plugged into a Pythagorean projection to estimate wins and losses. The third number is pretty useless for analysis, but just fun to consider. But, since there's no real way to estimate runs scored for the new team, I'm just going to ball-park home runs as a kind of proxy. Not Sabermetrics at all, so don't crucify me. 

First, let's see who played in the field last year.

Name G GS Inn Positions
Yolmer Sanchez 149 141 1256.2 2B
Leury Garcia 138 134 1158.2 CF-RF-SS-LF-2B-3B-DH
Jose Abreu 125 125 1103.2 1B-DH
Yoan Moncada 130 129 1095.2 3B-DH
Tim Anderson 122 122 1050 SS-DH
Eloy Jimenez 114 114 967.2 LF-DH
James McCann 106 102 905.1 C-DH
Adam Engel 86 65 608.1 CF
Ryan Cordell 91 63 599.1 RF-CF-LF
Welington Castillo 48 46 395 C-DH
Jon Jay 45 42 364 RF-LF-DH
Charlie Tilson 51 41 358.1 RF-CF-LF
Ryan Goins 46 34 326.2 3B-SS-RF-1B-LF-DH
Jose Rondon 45 36 314 2B-SS-3B-LF-1B-P

That is a pretty pathetic lineup, wouldn't you say? There is no official DH here, just a lot of guys who took turns. Yonder Alonso had 251 plate appearances and hit 7 HRs. 

Let's start to compare, using a lineup the Sox might employ.

CF - Garcia/Engel - (8/6) combined 14 HRs  v. Luis Robert - est. 22 HRs (hit 30 in the minors last year)

3B - Moncada - 25 HRs v. Moncada est. 30 HRs (more experience and hopefully more games)

1B - Abreu - 33 HRs v. Abreu est. 33 HRs (played only 125 games, and will have better support in the lineup)

LF - Jimenez - 31 HRs v. Jimenez est. 40 Hrs (played only 114 games, should play more, and bat exploded at the end of the year)

C - McCann/Castillo - (18/12) 30 HRs v. Grandal/McCann/Collins est. 38 HRs (25/10/3) (depends on whether the Sox sign Encarnacion; number is higher if these guys are primary DHs)

DH - Alonso, et al - 7 HR (not sure how to isolate Sox DH HRs) v. Encarnacion est 32 HRs (he hit this many in only 100 games, think Sox will sign him and he could exceed this number)

RF - Cordell/Jay/Tilson - (7/0/1) - 8 HR v. Mazara/Garcia/Engel (20/6/6) est 32 HRs (Garcia/Engel will also get time in other OF spots)

SS - Anderson - 18 HRs v. Anderson - est 22 HRs (Anderson played in only 123 games)

2B - Sanchez 2 HR v. Madrigal est. 5 HR

In 2019, these totals account for 168 of the Sox 182 HRs.

2020 estimate? 254. If the Sox get around 14 HRs from others like they did in 2019, that would move it up to 268. That would have left them 5th in baseball in 2019. I don't expect the Sox to get to that number, but I do think 250 is possible if the ball is the same and they sign Encarnacion to play DH and back up 1B. 

If you applied the increased rate of HRs to overall scoring (254/182 x 708) it would yield 988 runs. Not possible. The Yankees scored 943 runs on 306 HRs. The Twins scored 939 runs on 307 HRs. If you take the Yankee ratio of scoring over HRs (943/306) and multiply it by an estimated 254 Sox HRs, it would yield 782 runs, or exactly the league average last year. 

Of course, this is not scientific AT ALL. It's just a fun exercise to begin to look at the new Sox lineup (with the additional projection of Edwin Encarnacion) compared to last year's version. 

On the pitching side, let's see who the starters were.

Name ERA GS R ER
Ivan Nova 4.72 34 107 98
Reynaldo Lopez 5.38 33 119 110
Lucas Giolito 3.41 29 69 67
Dylan Cease 5.79 14 51 47
Dylan Covey 7.98 12 54 52
Ross Detwiler* 6.59 12 54 51
Manny Banuelos* 6.93 8 39 39
Carlos Rodon* 5.19 7 22 20

What do you have now?

Lucas Giolito should remain about the same.

Ivan Nova is replaced by Dallas Keuchel, who had a 3.75 ERA.

Reynaldo Lopez will hopefully take a bit step forward.

Gio Gonzalez and his 3.5 ERA is taking the starts of Dylan Covey, Ross Detwiler, and Manny Banuelos

Dylan Cease should take a big step forward.

And then we have Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon coming back during the year to fill in and push the weakest link(s) to the bullpen if they can. 

We also have Grandal and his pitch framing to help out most of these pitchers. 

Is that going to reduce the runs allowed by 50 or more on the season?  I should help a lot more than that.  But a lot depends on improvements by the young pitchers and the ability of Keuchel and Gonzalez to continue at the levels they've been. 

This is a pretty unwieldy post, I'll admit. I just wanted to start a conversation on the overall improvements the Sox have made, and how much it will help their bottom line. It doesn't put us near the top of baseball, but it should move the team into above average territory for runs scored, runs allowed, and HRs. 

 

 

Edited by VAfan
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BackDoorBreach

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, VAfan said:

I'm sure there are better numbers guys out there than me, but I thought I would start a thread about whether the 2020 Sox will be able to move above league average in runs scored, runs allowed, and HRs. 

Here were the numbers in 2019.

Runs scored - Sox 708, league avg 782

Runs allowed - Sox 832, league avg 782

Home runs - Sox 182, league average 226

Why look at this? The first two numbers could be plugged into a Pythagorean projection to estimate wins and losses. The third number is pretty useless for analysis, but just fun to consider. But, since there's no real way to estimate runs scored for the new team, I'm just going to ball-park home runs as a kind of proxy. Not Sabermetrics at all, so don't crucify me. 

First, let's see who played in the field last year.

Name G GS Inn Positions
Yolmer Sanchez 149 141 1256.2 2B
Leury Garcia 138 134 1158.2 CF-RF-SS-LF-2B-3B-DH
Jose Abreu 125 125 1103.2 1B-DH
Yoan Moncada 130 129 1095.2 3B-DH
Tim Anderson 122 122 1050 SS-DH
Eloy Jimenez 114 114 967.2 LF-DH
James McCann 106 102 905.1 C-DH
Adam Engel 86 65 608.1 CF
Ryan Cordell 91 63 599.1 RF-CF-LF
Welington Castillo 48 46 395 C-DH
Jon Jay 45 42 364 RF-LF-DH
Charlie Tilson 51 41 358.1 RF-CF-LF
Ryan Goins 46 34 326.2 3B-SS-RF-1B-LF-DH
Jose Rondon 45 36 314 2B-SS-3B-LF-1B-P

That is a pretty pathetic lineup, wouldn't you say? There is no official DH here, just a lot of guys who took turns. Yonder Alonso had 251 plate appearances and hit 7 HRs. 

Let's start to compare, using a lineup the Sox might employ.

CF - Garcia/Engel - (8/6) combined 14 HRs  v. Luis Robert - est. 22 HRs (hit 30 in the minors last year)

3B - Moncada - 25 HRs v. Moncada est. 30 HRs (more experience and hopefully more games)

1B - Abreu - 33 HRs v. Abreu est. 33 HRs (played only 125 games, and will have better support in the lineup)

LF - Jimenez - 31 HRs v. Jimenez est. 40 Hrs (played only 114 games, should play more, and bat exploded at the end of the year)

C - McCann/Castillo - (18/12) 30 HRs v. Grandal/McCann/Collins est. 38 HRs (25/10/3) (depends on whether the Sox sign Encarnacion; number is higher if these guys are primary DHs)

DH - Alonso, et al - 7 HR (not sure how to isolate Sox DH HRs) v. Encarnacion est 32 HRs (he hit this many in only 100 games, think Sox will sign him and he could exceed this number)

RF - Cordell/Jay/Tilson - (7/0/1) - 8 HR v. Mazara/Garcia/Engel (20/6/6) est 32 HRs (Garcia/Engel will also get time in other OF spots)

SS - Anderson - 18 HRs v. Anderson - est 22 HRs (Anderson played in only 123 games)

2B - Sanchez 2 HR v. Madrigal est. 5 HR

In 2019, these totals account for 168 of the Sox 182 HRs.

2020 estimate? 254. If the Sox get around 14 HRs from others like they did in 2019, that would move it up to 268. That would have left them 5th in baseball in 2019. I don't expect the Sox to get to that number, but I do think 250 is possible if the ball is the same and they sign Encarnacion to play DH and back up 1B. 

If you applied the increased rate of HRs to overall scoring (254/182 x 708) it would yield 988 runs. Not possible. The Yankees scored 943 runs on 306 HRs. The Twins scored 939 runs on 307 HRs. If you take the Yankee ratio of scoring over HRs (943/306) and multiply it by an estimated 254 Sox HRs, it would yield 782 runs, or exactly the league average last year. 

Of course, this is not scientific AT ALL. It's just a fun exercise to begin to look at the new Sox lineup (with the additional projection of Edwin Encarnacion) compared to last year's version. 

On the pitching side, let's see who the starters were.

Name ERA GS R ER
Ivan Nova 4.72 34 107 98
Reynaldo Lopez 5.38 33 119 110
Lucas Giolito 3.41 29 69 67
Dylan Cease 5.79 14 51 47
Dylan Covey 7.98 12 54 52
Ross Detwiler* 6.59 12 54 51
Manny Banuelos* 6.93 8 39 39
Carlos Rodon* 5.19 7 22 20

What do you have now?

Lucas Giolito should remain about the same.

Ivan Nova is replaced by Dallas Keuchel, who had a 3.75 ERA.

Reynaldo Lopez will hopefully take a bit step forward.

Gio Gonzalez and his 3.5 ERA is taking the starts of Dylan Covey, Ross Detwiler, and Manny Banuelos

Dylan Cease should take a big step forward.

And then we have Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon coming back during the year to fill in and push the weakest link(s) to the bullpen if they can. 

We also have Grandal and his pitch framing to help out most of these pitchers. 

Is that going to reduce the runs allowed by 50 or more on the season?  I should help a lot more than that.  But a lot depends on improvements by the young pitchers and the ability of Keuchel and Gonzalez to continue at the levels they've been. 

This is a pretty unwieldy post, I'll admit. I just wanted to start a conversation on the overall improvements the Sox have made, and how much it will help their bottom line. It doesn't put us near the top of baseball, but it should move the team into above average territory for runs scored, runs allowed, and HRs. 

 

 

I 100% agree, the Sox will be better in 2020 than 2019.

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