Insight Regarding Mazara's Injury

[Lillian]

I've been doing some research on Mazara's thumb injury. Mazara sprained the thumb diving for a fly ball in the outfield in a game against the Orioles, just before the 2018 All-Star break. He started the second half on the disabled list and wasn't activated until Aug. 16. The injury lingered and was reaggravated, as recently as late last season. It seems to have affected him during most of the last season and a half. 

Mazara said the best thing he can do is stay under control at the plate. If he does that and doesn't over swing, it keeps him from irritating the thumb.

 

I noticed that he actually made some significant strides, in his power numbers, versus LH pitching, during the 2018 and 2019 seasons, despite the thumb injury. In his first two seasons, he only hit 2 homers, in a total of 234 at bats. Over the last 2 seasons, he hit 13 homers, in just over 300 at bats. Last year, he also had 10 doubles, in just 179 at bats, versus lefties. His numbers versus RH pitching, were actually worse during his last 2 years, than they were during in first 2 seasons. 

 

I'm wondering how the sprained thumb might have affected him more against RH pitching, than against lefties. It may be linked to his admission that he felt better when "staying under control". That is something that is more of a focal point, when facing pitchers, from the same side. A hitter has to discipline himself not to bail on breaking pitches, which initially are directed at the hitter, before breaking away from him. It is more critical to remain under control in that situation, which could explain why he improved versus lefties, but was more significantly affected by the injury, against RH pitching. Perhaps he often failed to stay under control, to the same degree, against RH pitching, because as a left handed hitter, he had a tendency to stride earlier, and open up, to the pull side, in anticipation of the pitch.  

 

I wanted to open a discussion on this topic, without lots of irrelevant comments, regarding the trade, or the need for a Mazara platoon partner. Does anyone have any other possible explanations, regarding the injury and Mazara's relative performance, year to year, against RH and LH pitching?

Edited December 25, 2019 by Lillian

[caulfield12]

https://www.lonestarball.com/2019/5/13/18617782/nomar-mazara-has-been-better-than-you-think
 

Where is Mazara falling short? Batting average on balls in play. Mazara has a BABIP of .240 this season — well below his career .292 mark, and 151st out of 174 qualifying hitters per Fangraphs. He had a .298 BABIP in 2018, .293 in 2017, and .299 in 2016. Hitting the ball harder, and having a higher line drive rate, generally results in a player having a higher BABIP, not a lower one. A very simplistic view is that Mazara is having bad luck on balls in play.

And this is supported by the Statcast data. Mazara’s xBA (expected batting average) this year is .288. His actual batting average is .227. Out of the 334 players with at least 50 plate appearances, there are only 12 with a bigger negative spread. Statcast sees Mazara as having contact that would be expected to generate a .326 BABIP, not the .240 BABIP he actually has.

What does all this mean? Well, if Mazara actually had a .361 wOBA this year, he’d have a 120 wRC+. If he had the extra 61 points in batting average Statcast suggests he should have, and all those extra points came from singles, he’d be slashing .288/.348/.483, and we’d all be encouraged about the progress he’s made this season.

The counter to that, of course, is that Mazara is slow, he gets shifted against, he’s a pull hitter, and so he’s going to underperform his xwOBA. And that’s reasonable...but should he really be expected to underperform it by that much?  Joey Gallo, an even more extreme pull hitter who gets shifted on more than Mazara, is underperforming his xwOBA by 21 points. If Mazara were just underperforming by 21 points, he’s at a .340 wOBA, which would be around a 107 wRC+, which would still be a rate where Mazara is performing at an acceptable level.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 hours ago, Lillian said:

I've been doing some research on Mazara's thumb injury. Mazara sprained the thumb diving for a fly ball in the outfield in a game against the Orioles, just before the 2018 All-Star break. He started the second half on the disabled list and wasn't activated until Aug. 16. The injury lingered and was reaggravated, as recently as late last season. It seems to have affected him during most of the last season and a half. 

Mazara said the best thing he can do is stay under control at the plate. If he does that and doesn't over swing, it keeps him from irritating the thumb.

 

I noticed that he actually made some significant strides, in his power numbers, versus LH pitching, during the 2018 and 2019 seasons, despite the thumb injury. In his first two seasons, he only hit 2 homers, in a total of 234 at bats. Over the last 2 seasons, he hit 13 homers, in just over 300 at bats. Last year, he also had 10 doubles, in just 179 at bats, versus lefties. His numbers versus RH pitching, were actually worse during his last 2 years, than they were during in first 2 seasons. 

 

I'm wondering how the sprained thumb might have affected him more against RH pitching, than against lefties. It may be linked to his admission that he felt better when "staying under control". That is something that is more of a focal point, when facing pitchers, from the same side. A hitter has to discipline himself not to bail on breaking pitches, which initially are directed at the hitter, before breaking away from him. It is more critical to remain under control in that situation, which could explain why he improved versus lefties, but was more significantly affected by the injury, against RH pitching. Perhaps he often failed to stay under control, to the same degree, against RH pitching, because as a left handed hitter, he had a tendency to stride earlier, and open up, to the pull side, in anticipation of the pitch.  

 

I wanted to open a discussion on this topic, without lots of irrelevant comments, regarding the trade, or the need for a Mazara platoon partner. Does anyone have any other possible explanations, regarding the injury and Mazara's relative performance, year to year, against RH and LH pitching?

It wouldn't hurt to have a potential platoon bat on the bench just in case. Luckily, they have Leury who has done a pretty good job against lefties in his career.

[EloyJenkins]

6 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

It wouldn't hurt to have a potential platoon bat on the bench just in case. Luckily, they have Leury who has done a pretty good job against lefties in his career.

Engels work against lefties was great last year as well. I don't think they need to upgrade. Save the money for pitching or next season.

[Lillian]

I was hopeful that this separate topic would avoid the issue of whether, or not, the Sox should be thinking about a platoon for Mazara. That has been discussed, ad nauseam, elsewhere. I would really appreciate some astute analysis of this topic. Thanks. Carry on.

[Bob Sacamano]

38 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Engels work against lefties was great last year as well. I don't think they need to upgrade. Save the money for pitching or next season.

Unless they go with someone like Hunter Pence.

[EloyJenkins]

39 minutes ago, Lillian said:

I was hopeful that this separate topic would avoid the issue of whether, or not, the Sox should be thinking about a platoon for Mazara. That has been discussed, ad nauseam, elsewhere. I would really appreciate some astute analysis of this topic. Thanks. Carry on.

Tough. The reality is that he is best served in a platoon. We are talking a 3+ WAR position if it's a smart platoon (great defense hopefully) ...he is no more than 2 WAR absolute Max by himself. It's interesting to see he can overcome the thumb problems like Moncada did, but expecting him to improve into their singular RF is not realistic even if he shows improvement in his BABIP which should increase. I am a fan of the trade and like the risk...but he is never going to reach his prospect ceiling 

[SoCalChiSox]

His BABIP already recovered to like .312 by the end of the season due to  a strong second half, so I don't see any further positive regression, it already came in the second half of the season (that article was from May).

However, fangraphs projects him as a 105 wRC+ hitter in 2020. That presumes he is facing both LHP and RHP so I would assume his wRC+ would be well north of 105 if in fact they only start him against RHP (120?). 

Hopefully his thumb is ok.

In retrospect, this was a good move by the FO. While unpopular at the time, it made much more sense than giving Ozuna something like 4/65. We get two cost controlled years, get a badly needed LHH that already is above average against righties and could be much better than that and he's  passable in RF. 

I wish the OBP was higher but for the bottom third of the lineup it's ok. 

I'll gladly take the projected 25 HRs from someone batting 7th (although that would probably be lower if in fact he doesn't play full time). 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2019 by SoCalChiSox

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Lillian said:

I was hopeful that this separate topic would avoid the issue of whether, or not, the Sox should be thinking about a platoon for Mazara. That has been discussed, ad nauseam, elsewhere. I would really appreciate some astute analysis of this topic. Thanks. Carry on.

Unfortunately the best you are going to get is what Caufield posted. Basically every thread turns into what the Sox needs are. There just aren't enough qualified people who know his medical history and the analytics side of his hitting .

My own personal opinion is that he is a line drive hitter with tremendous power . That line drive swing results in too many ground outs to 2nd base. Omar has to  get his average launch angle higher . In order to do that has has to be more selective and walk more. Low pitches are making him ground out whereas most power hitters that low pitch is heaven when you have a good launch angle. I know Josh Donaldson also takes this same approach to hitting.

Edwin Encarnicions average launch angle in 2019 was 22.5 degrees his barrel % 12.6. His hard hit % 42. Walk % 11.9

Mazara's same stats in 2019      launch angle 10.5 degrees barrel % 10.7 .   Hard hit % 39.3 .    Walk % 6.

 

You can see the big difference between the 2 are average launch angle and walk rate. It might be an overly simplistic view and I haven't looked at other power hitters. I just chose Encanacion as a typical power hitter who has had success at it a long time and possible team mate of Mazara.

Not sure his thumb has much to do with his personal approach. Josh Donaldson is also a big proponent of launch angle and never wanting to hit ground balls.

I'm hoping his fellow Dominican Encarnacion can take him under his wing and convince him to work on his launch angle. When a guy like Mazara who has so much talent and a swing that has worked for him his whole life getting him to the highest level in his profession it's probably difficult to embrace another way but it's crucial that he does. A successful transition should have better results across the board .

Anthony Rendon is another example of launch angle improvement. In 2015 his launch angle was 10% . Since then it's been between 17-19.5 %.

I know I mentioned earlier about Mazara's walk rate but it's not necessarily tied to his launch angle. If Mazara can get the launch angle over 15% I think we see a dramatically better hitter.  If Hahn was planning all along to add Encarnacion perhaps that's what he meant by not viewing the Mazara trade in isolation. Could be part of the plan was to get Mazara's countrymen and Menechino to really stress improving his launch angle and backing it up with some stats from guys like Rendon and others to reinforce it.

If anyone else wants to do more research on this  here is a link. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nomar-mazara-608577?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

I'd be particularly interested on how many guys with 20+ HR's have a launch angle as low as Mazara's .  League average launch angle is around 11.2-11.5 % and Mazara's was 10.5 last year and 8.9 for his career. I would guess it's not very many.

 

Edited December 25, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, EloyJenkins said:

Tough. The reality is that he is best served in a platoon. We are talking a 3+ WAR position if it's a smart platoon (great defense hopefully) ...he is no more than 2 WAR absolute Max by himself. It's interesting to see he can overcome the thumb problems like Moncada did, but expecting him to improve into their singular RF is not realistic even if he shows improvement in his BABIP which should increase. I am a fan of the trade and like the risk...but he is never going to reach his prospect ceiling 

Mazara doesn't have to reach his prospect ceiling he just has to get better . See my analysis above about his launch angle. His BABIP is tied to his launch angle. He hits way too many ground balls to the right side. He has to elevate elevate elevate . Once you get the ball in the air with his power he could improve tremendously. He needs to do whatever it is that hitters do to increase that launch angle and hopefully Encarnacion can help with that along with all kinds of stats to back up my theory.

Joey Gallo said about Nomar : "That guy has stupid pop. I mean, he out-hits me in batting practice. He's putting balls on the roof in batting practice. He has amazing power. I think he's starting to translate it now into the game, and it takes a while to get that stroke going because he was kind of a contact guy, more gap to gap, but he's a strong dude. He can put the balls out there with me."

The difference between Gallo and Mazara ? Gallo 21.4 career average launch angle. Mazara 8.9 . He's always been a line drive hitter but to maximize his talent he has to change his swing path and increase launch angle.