How good do YOU think we can be next season?

[steveno89]

Loving the optimism I'm seeing

Realistically we are about a .500 team as currently constructed, albeit with upside if things click. Talk of upper 80's or 90+ wins seems like a stretch. 

Pretty hard to argue that the offense should be solid, especially with the additions of Grandal, Encarnacion, Mazara, Robert, Madrigal. Young players are likely to struggle as the adjust to the majors. 

The pitching staff should be improved with Keuchel and Gonzalez, but uncertain if Giolito will build off his breakout 2019, can Lopez and Cease take necessary steps forward? 

The bullpen is more of a question mark than any real contender would like. Bummer is a solid piece, but beyond that there are doubts. Need more strikeout stuff in our bullpen for sure. 

[HOFHurt35]

My optimism has more to do with playing 76 games in the division. 

Win 50 of those (which there is no excuse not to be able to do that with how terrible 2.5 of those teams will be), you are only looking for another 40 wins from the rest of the league to get to 90.   You don't even have to play .500 against everyone else. 

This is why I don't put too much stock in closing the gap on the 100 wins by the Twins.   

 

 

[ChiSox59]

Last year our RF amassed -2.8 fWAR.

Our DH's amassed -3.9 fWAR.

Our 5th starters amassed -1.7 fWAR.

Replacing DH with EE (2.0 fWAR projection), RF with Mazara (1.5 fWAR projection), and the carousel SP spot with Keuchel (2.5 fWAR projection) is about a 14.5 win swing without taking into account Grandal over Mccann, Robert over Engel/Leury, Madrigal over Yolmer, as well as anything we get from Kopech, Gio Gonzalez, Rodon etc.

I would say we're about an 85 win team right now, and it could be lot better depending on primarily on how well Robert, Cease, Kopech, Madrigal and Lopez do.  

Edited December 30, 2019 by ChiSox59

[chetkincaid]

8 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

 

I would say we're about an 85 win team right now, and it could be lot better depending on primarily on how well Robert, Cease, Kopech, Madrigal and Lopez do.  

Took the words right out of my mouth. I don't expect too much from them in 2020 because they're still young, but in 2021 they should be MONEY.

[mqr]

16 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Last year our RF amassed -2.8 fWAR.

Our DH's amassed -3.9 fWAR.

Our 5th starters amassed -1.7 fWAR.

Replacing DH with EE (2.0 fWAR projection), RF with Mazara (1.5 fWAR projection), and the carousel SP spot with Keuchel (2.5 fWAR projection) is about a 14.5 win swing without taking into account Grandal over Mccann, Robert over Engel/Leury, Madrigal over Yolmer, as well as anything we get from Kopech, Gio Gonzalez, Rodon etc.

I would say we're about an 85 win team right now, and it could be lot better depending on primarily on how well Robert, Cease, Kopech, Madrigal and Lopez do.  

Sky's the limit by I think 82-85 is a reasonable expectation. 

[thedoctor]

i’d say 82 wins as a middle and wouldn’t be surprised with five wins variance in that (87 or 77). outside of that is either over or underperforming, imo. 

[reiks12]

Offense:

1. Robert .295 AVG, .340 OBP, .538 SLG, .878 OPS

2. Moncada .310 AVG, .370 OBP, .544 SLG, .914 OPS

3. Abreu .260 AVG, 325 OBP, .460 SLG, .785 OPS

4. Grandal .234 AVG, .369 OBP, .470 SLG, .839 OPS

5. Encarnacion .253 AVG, .338 OBP, .512 SLG, .850 OPS

6. Eloy .292 AVG, .348 OBP, .589 SLG, .939 OPS

7. Anderson .305 AVG, .332 OBP, .434 SLG, .826 OPS

8. Mazara .286 AVG, .329 OBP, .489 SLG, .818 OPS

9. Madrigal .294 AVG, .342 OBP, .391 SLG, .733 OPS

Special note: Abreu will bat 3rd for the whole season and Soxtalk will go crazy. 

Pitching:

1. Giolito 18-6, 3.11 ERA, 209 IP

2. Keuchel 13-12, 4.19 ERA, 198 IP

3. Cease 10-7, 4.08 ERA, 154 IP

4. Lopez 12-5, 3.88 ERA, 172 IP

5. Gonzalez, 9-12, 4.49 ERA, 179 IP

Kopech 4-6, 4.21 ERA, 88 IP

Rodon 6-3, 3.39 ERA, 92 IP

Special note: Lopez and Cease have themselves great seasons but struggle with pitch counts.

Bullpen and bench will put up average numbers, Colome is going to falter but Bummer becomes a good closer. 

88 wins.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Offense:

1. Robert .295 AVG, .340 OBP, .538 SLG, .878 OPS

2. Moncada .310 AVG, .370 OBP, .544 SLG, .914 OPS

3. Abreu .260 AVG, 325 OBP, .460 SLG, .785 OPS

4. Grandal .234 AVG, .369 OBP, .470 SLG, .839 OPS

5. Encarnacion .253 AVG, .338 OBP, .512 SLG, .850 OPS

6. Eloy .292 AVG, .348 OBP, .589 SLG, .939 OPS

7. Anderson .305 AVG, .332 OBP, .434 SLG, .826 OPS

8. Mazara .286 AVG, .329 OBP, .489 SLG, .818 OPS

9. Madrigal .294 AVG, .342 OBP, .391 SLG, .733 OPS

Special note: Abreu will bat 3rd for the whole season and Soxtalk will go crazy. 

Pitching:

1. Giolito 18-6, 3.11 ERA, 209 IP

2. Keuchel 13-12, 4.19 ERA, 198 IP

3. Cease 10-7, 4.08 ERA, 154 IP

4. Lopez 12-5, 3.88 ERA, 172 IP

5. Gonzalez, 9-12, 4.49 ERA, 179 IP

Kopech 4-6, 4.21 ERA, 88 IP

Rodon 6-3, 3.39 ERA, 92 IP

Special note: Lopez and Cease have themselves great seasons but struggle with pitch counts.

Bullpen and bench will put up average numbers, Colome is going to falter but Bummer becomes a good closer. 

88 wins.

If this is Robert's slash line, that's one hell of a rookie season.

That .878 OPS would be pretty impressive and assuming he's a + runner and fielder, that makes him a 5-6 WAR player as a rookie. I'd lower your expectations for his bat even though he is certainly talented enough to absolutely dominate.

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Offense:

1. Robert .295 AVG, .340 OBP, .538 SLG, .878 OPS

2. Moncada .310 AVG, .370 OBP, .544 SLG, .914 OPS

3. Abreu .260 AVG, 325 OBP, .460 SLG, .785 OPS

4. Grandal .234 AVG, .369 OBP, .470 SLG, .839 OPS

5. Encarnacion .253 AVG, .338 OBP, .512 SLG, .850 OPS

6. Eloy .292 AVG, .348 OBP, .589 SLG, .939 OPS

7. Anderson .305 AVG, .332 OBP, .434 SLG, .826 OPS

8. Mazara .286 AVG, .329 OBP, .489 SLG, .818 OPS

9. Madrigal .294 AVG, .342 OBP, .391 SLG, .733 OPS

Special note: Abreu will bat 3rd for the whole season and Soxtalk will go crazy. 

Pitching:

1. Giolito 18-6, 3.11 ERA, 209 IP

2. Keuchel 13-12, 4.19 ERA, 198 IP

3. Cease 10-7, 4.08 ERA, 154 IP

4. Lopez 12-5, 3.88 ERA, 172 IP

5. Gonzalez, 9-12, 4.49 ERA, 179 IP

Kopech 4-6, 4.21 ERA, 88 IP

Rodon 6-3, 3.39 ERA, 92 IP

Special note: Lopez and Cease have themselves great seasons but struggle with pitch counts.

Bullpen and bench will put up average numbers, Colome is going to falter but Bummer becomes a good closer. 

88 wins.

If the offense is that good, the Sox are going to win more than 88 games.  Individually I don't think any are insane.  I doubt Robert and Madrigal are THAT good as rookies.  Eloy's OBP looks a little high.  But the rest are pretty solid.  I could see Timmy batting more like .285, but certainly hope he beats .300 again.  

[mqr]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

If the offense is that good, the Sox are going to win more than 88 games.  Individually I don't think any are insane.  I doubt Robert and Madrigal are THAT good as rookies.  Eloy's OBP looks a little high.  But the rest are pretty solid.  I could see Timmy batting more like .285, but certainly hope he beats .300 again.  

Idk, yeah that Robert line would be asking a lot. But I don't think the Madrigal one is far off from what we should want to see. 

[reiks12]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If this is Robert's slash line, that's one hell of a rookie season.

That .878 OPS would be pretty impressive and assuming he's a + runner and fielder, that makes him a 5-6 WAR player as a rookie. I'd lower your expectations for his bat even though he is certainly talented enough to absolutely dominate.

I figured we were due for a huge rookie campaign! 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

Idk, yeah that Robert line would be asking a lot. But I don't think the Madrigal one is far off from what we should want to see. 

I don't think he's going to walk enough to have a .345 OBP with a .295 average.  With the lineup the way it is now, people would be nuts to walk Madrigal.  I know he has good plate displince, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him have OBPs over .350 later in his career, but that is a really solid output as a rookie.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If the offense is that good, the Sox are going to win more than 88 games.  Individually I don't think any are insane.  I doubt Robert and Madrigal are THAT good as rookies.  Eloy's OBP looks a little high.  But the rest are pretty solid.  I could see Timmy batting more like .285, but certainly hope he beats .300 again.  

Yeah, that team above is like a 95 win team.

Hard to calculate WAR without defense, but assuming the same production defensively and on the bases:

1. Robert - 5.5

2. Moncada - 6

3. Abreu - 1

4. Grandal - 4

5. Encarnacion - 2.1

6. Eloy - 3.6

7. Anderson - 3.8

8. Mazara - 1.8

9. Madrigal - 2.9

That's 30.7 WAR just from your bats with no bench players. Add 2 WAR for the bench, and this team would have had a higher WAR than every team last year but for the Dodgers and Astros. That's a lot to ask. Add in the arms you did - I'm leaving so can't run those through to get projected WAR with those stats - but you're projecting like a 95 win team above.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't think he's going to walk enough to have a .345 OBP with a .295 average.  With the lineup the way it is now, people would be nuts to walk Madrigal.  I know he has good plate displince, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him have OBPs over .350 later in his career, but that is a really solid output as a rookie.  

The one thing I've said about Madrigal more than any other is he is never ever overmatched - regardless of stuff or level. That should make his transition easier as he won't be working on approach as much as what pitches to attack to maximize his outcomes. His approach and hands are as good as it gets, and he won't get himself out and he won't get overpowered by anyone really.

Edited December 30, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

I figured we were due for a huge rookie campaign! 

I think there are really only two possible outcomes for Robert:

1. The slider hurts him and he doesn't lay off it so he puts up like a 250/295/500 type slash line - still a 3ish WAR player - but his discipline hurts him this year until he makes further adjustments.

2. He is so damn talented that he can lay off it easily when it's actually hurting his production (which he hasn't had to do yet), he makes the quick adjustments and absolutely pummels mistakes for a 285/330/585 slash line because he's one of the most talented players on the planet.

You can't really judge how a player will adjust when he's never had to make that adjustment yet. Some guys pick it up really quickly; some take a little time (like Eloy last year) and some take 800-1000 PA's to figure it out.

[reiks12]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think there are really only two possible outcomes for Robert:

1. The slider hurts him and he doesn't lay off it so he puts up like a 250/295/500 type slash line - still a 3ish WAR player - but his discipline hurts him this year until he makes further adjustments.

2. He is so damn talented that he can lay off it easily when it's actually hurting his production (which he hasn't had to do yet), he makes the quick adjustments and absolutely pummels mistakes for a 285/330/585 slash line because he's one of the most talented players on the planet.

You can't really judge how a player will adjust when he's never had to make that adjustment yet. Some guys pick it up really quickly; some take a little time (like Eloy last year) and some take 800-1000 PA's to figure it out.

Essentially Eloy's rookie season which was still pretty damn good. I would be happy if Robert put up a 3 WAR season like in your first scenario.

[poppysox]

One thing that will help everyone is being surrounded by other good players.  Abreu suffered in the past by trying to do to much.  Getting your pitch or taking the walk is easier when everything isn't up to just you.

[SoxBlanco]

1 minute ago, poppysox said:

One thing that will help everyone is being surrounded by other good players.  Abreu suffered in the past by trying to do to much.  Getting your pitch or taking the walk is easier when everything isn't up to just you.

Great point, and I’ve been excited about this as well. Hitting is contagious, both positively and negatively (like Birmingham’s first couple of months last year). 

[pcq]

4 hours ago, steveno89 said:

Loving the optimism I'm seeing

Realistically we are about a .500 team as currently constructed, albeit with upside if things click. Talk of upper 80's or 90+ wins seems like a stretch. 

Pretty hard to argue that the offense should be solid, especially with the additions of Grandal, Encarnacion, Mazara, Robert, Madrigal. Young players are likely to struggle as the adjust to the majors. 

The pitching staff should be improved with Keuchel and Gonzalez, but uncertain if Giolito will build off his breakout 2019, can Lopez and Cease take necessary steps forward? 

The bullpen is more of a question mark than any real contender would like. Bummer is a solid piece, but beyond that there are doubts. Need more strikeout stuff in our bullpen for sure. 

It is possible our system has some relief help but no one obvious right now. I am not certain if Gio2 or Nova could work out of the pen. The hitting should be good but the pitching and defense may hold them back. Their window of contention right now is not quite ready to blossom. With the division faltering it is time to step up and compete. Lopez and Cease are unknown quantities going into ST. 

[steveno89]

3 hours ago, reiks12 said:

Offense:

1. Robert .295 AVG, .340 OBP, .538 SLG, .878 OPS

2. Moncada .310 AVG, .370 OBP, .544 SLG, .914 OPS

3. Abreu .260 AVG, 325 OBP, .460 SLG, .785 OPS

4. Grandal .234 AVG, .369 OBP, .470 SLG, .839 OPS

5. Encarnacion .253 AVG, .338 OBP, .512 SLG, .850 OPS

6. Eloy .292 AVG, .348 OBP, .589 SLG, .939 OPS

7. Anderson .305 AVG, .332 OBP, .434 SLG, .826 OPS

8. Mazara .286 AVG, .329 OBP, .489 SLG, .818 OPS

9. Madrigal .294 AVG, .342 OBP, .391 SLG, .733 OPS

Special note: Abreu will bat 3rd for the whole season and Soxtalk will go crazy. 

Pitching:

1. Giolito 18-6, 3.11 ERA, 209 IP

2. Keuchel 13-12, 4.19 ERA, 198 IP

3. Cease 10-7, 4.08 ERA, 154 IP

4. Lopez 12-5, 3.88 ERA, 172 IP

5. Gonzalez, 9-12, 4.49 ERA, 179 IP

Kopech 4-6, 4.21 ERA, 88 IP

Rodon 6-3, 3.39 ERA, 92 IP

Special note: Lopez and Cease have themselves great seasons but struggle with pitch counts.

Bullpen and bench will put up average numbers, Colome is going to falter but Bummer becomes a good closer. 

88 wins.

This is essentially beat case scenario across the board, especially offensively. If the team is that strong I think they would be big time buyers at the deadline to push for the playoffs. 

[Vote4Pedro]

10 hours ago, steveno89 said:

Loving the optimism I'm seeing

Realistically we are about a .500 team as currently constructed, albeit with upside if things click. Talk of upper 80's or 90+ wins seems like a stretch. 

I think 86-88 wins is a good benchmark for this team. I look at last year at the ASB we were 40-42 and then went like on a 4-18 stretch out of the break to tank the second half and still came out with 72 Ws. This lineup is much improved over last years club the rotation had a gaping hole in the 4/5 spot and the entire AL Central has gotten worse. Call me optimistic but I think that 86 is a floor 90-92 in the ceiling.

Edited December 31, 2019 by HahnsKiddieTable

[Richie]

I think that the ceiling is most definitely in the 90's. 

[Sarava]

The ceiling in 2020 is winning the World Series. For # of wins, I'd say around 100. If the Twins could do it last year, we certainly have as much talent as they did last year. But a ton of things would have to fall in line. Think along the lines of the Cubs in 2015-2016, when all their prospects were clicking at that point.

That's not saying it's likely. It's obviously unlikely. But if Robert and Madigral kill it as rookies, as opposed to the initial struggles we saw with Eloy and Moncada. And Cease and Kopech kill it....this team could go nuts.

Now if someone asked what is likely, somewhere in the 80's I'd say. I'd go with low 80's as the bullpen stands now. Hopefully we see the talked about bullpen improvements over the next month or so.

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Right now I just want a .500 season.  If we hover around .500 that gives us a chance in this horrid division and will make the year exciting.  I predict 85 wins.

[Dick Allen]

They play 25% of their schedule vs. horrible teams. If everything goes right and they get some more bullpen help they win well over 90. That probably won't happen. If the key guys remain healthy 85-88 wins isn't crazy.