White Sox Sign Robert to Extension

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

18 hours ago, steveno89 said:

I understand a bit of fangraphs restraint with Robert. He does not walk much, and there are some swing and miss concerns.

Lewis Brinson busting I'm sure gives them pause. That said Robert is extremely talented and just as easily could break out at the MLB level in 2020. Superstar upside for sure. 

I like posts like this , very fair take. Easy to see Robert will be abused with sliders until he proves he can lay off them just like Jimenez, Also would love to see a couple of relatively healthy years for him .

Plus side is the speed ,fielding ,bat speed , power , mistake hitter . Recognizes hanging stuff and jumps all over it and then we marvel at the sound from his bat .

[poppysox]

25 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I like posts like this , very fair take. Easy to see Robert will be abused with sliders until he proves he can lay off them just like Jimenez, Also would love to see a couple of relatively healthy years for him .

Plus side is the speed ,fielding ,bat speed , power , mistake hitter . Recognizes hanging stuff and jumps all over it and then we marvel at the sound from his bat .

Abreu has been chasing sliders since he got here.  Anxious to see if having better hitters up and down the line doesn't improve his patience considerably.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

Abreu has been chasing sliders since he got here.  Anxious to see if having better hitters up and down the line doesn't improve his patience considerably.

A lot of good hitters chase sliders. We see it mostly from guys that like to hit rather than walk and RH'ers that like to get hits to right field so outside pitches from RH pitchers are doubly tempting. Also guys that can't recognize the spin differences between a FB and a slider or don't expect a slider in a FB count.

Eloy has long levers so he likes to extend his arms and drive the ball to right and CF. He rarely pulls his HR's because he lets the ball get deeper when he swings and is not yet adept at pulling his arms in and getting out in front of a pitch. I had a feeling Semien was going to be good because I saw him hit a HR on an inside pitch maybe 6 inches or more inside where he shortened his arms and pulled it far to LF early in his Sox career. I think I remember Hawk marveling at how he even kept the ball fair. Hawk also called that "hitting with alligator arms" in case some people didn't know what that meant .when instead of extending your arms you pull you them in toward your body but can still generate bat speed and power.

I have no idea if this comp is accurate because I don't remember how Dave Winfield hit but just their height and long lever approach to hitting seems the same. I have no idea how good Winfield was at pulling the ball but I'm reasonably sure he would go up the middle and oppo a decent amount. Eloy could learn to pull too but now going oppo and to CF suits him but adjusting to pull more can pay huge dividends .

Abreu chases balls a lot because he is the consummate team player. He does anything he can to drive in runs. When defenses give him a huge hole between 1st and second he just reaches out to poke pitches into right. Not sure Abreu can change his approach at this point . There might be even more runs for him to drive in this year and he has proved he knows how to do that because despite swinging at those sliders he also hit very well with RISP. With runners on Abreu is fairly sure a pitcher will not want to walk him so on better pitches to hit he hits better. If you see any kind of better walk percentage from him it won't be "considerable" . If there is any improvement it'll likely come when the bases are empty.

Edited January 3, 2020 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[asindc]

15 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

A lot of good hitters chase sliders. We see it mostly from guys that like to hit rather than walk and RH'ers that like to get hits to right field so outside pitches from RH pitchers are doubly tempting. Also guys that can't recognize the spin differences between a FB and a slider or don't expect a slider in a FB count.

Eloy has long levers so he likes to extend his arms and drive the ball to right and CF. He rarely pulls his HR's because he lets the ball get deeper when he swings and is not yet adept at pulling his arms in and getting out in front of a pitch. I had a feeling Semien was going to be good because I saw him hit a HR on an inside pitch maybe 6 inches or more inside where he shortened his arms and pulled it far to LF early in his Sox career. I think I remember Hawk marveling at how he even kept the ball fair. Hawk also called that "hitting with alligator arms" in case some people didn't know what that meant .when instead of extending your arms you pull you them in toward your body but can still generate bat speed and power.

I have no idea if this comp is accurate because I don't remember how Dave Winfield hit but just their height and long lever approach to hitting seems the same. I have no idea how good Winfield was at pulling the ball but I'm reasonably sure he would go up the middle and oppo a decent amount. Eloy could learn to pull too but now going oppo and to CF suits him but adjusting to pull more can pay huge dividends .

Abreu chases balls a lot because he is the consummate team player. He does anything he can to drive in runs. When defenses give him a huge hole between 1st and second he just reaches out to poke pitches into right. Not sure Abreu can change his approach at this point . There might be even more runs for him to drive in this year and he has proved he knows how to do that because despite swinging at those sliders he also hit very well with RISP.

I’m surprised that more Sox fans don’t recognize that and just assume Abreu is always getting fooled on sliders breaking away.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

36 minutes ago, asindc said:

I’m surprised that more Sox fans don’t recognize that and just assume Abreu is always getting fooled on sliders breaking away.

I think it's hard for most fans to look at the big picture. They focus on a few bad things and don't relate it to the good things . Sometimes they go hand in hand.

Hes get fooled plenty of times or guesses wrong like a lot of hitters but sacrifices the all or nothing approach that many hitters take into every AB for just making enough contact to drive in runs. It's sometimes why I don't understand those who say RBI's are meaningless because they are a product of how often you bat with men on base. Plenty of good hitters in baseball come up with men on base but Abreu has consistently driven them in throughout his career. That is very valuable and shows the kids how to take an unselfish approach at the plate.

Edited January 3, 2020 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[mqr]

I know it was only 19 games, but oh my god I forgot how silly Robert was in WS. Dudes wRC+ was 305(!!!)

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Said this there, but the fascinating thing about FG's scouting stubbornness with Robert is that he's their top projected prospect in regards to WAR. Typically you see skepticism around guys who have more tools than results; leading their projections to be less than their prospect ranking - see Moncada for an example here. Robert is projected to be a 3 WAR rookie at 22 years old though; paired with elite tools. 

Robert pairs the two things that are usually love by evalutors - elite, All-MLB level tools with elite production and projections.

Edited January 3, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[BFirebird]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Said this there, but the fascinating thing about FG's scouting stubbornness with Robert is that he's their top projected prospect in regards to WAR. Typically you see skepticism around guys who have more tools than results; leading their projections to be less than their prospect ranking - see Moncada for an example here. Robert is projected to be a 3 WAR rookie at 22 years old though; paired with elite tools. 

Robert pairs the two things that are usually love by evalutors - elite, All-MLB level tools with elite production and projections.

The 55 is from last year I believe before the adjustments. He will probably be a 60 FG says this year. 
 

Fangraphs article on the signing:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/white-sox-and-luis-robert-agree-on-50-million-extension/

[DirtySox]

2 minutes ago, BFirebird said:

The 55 is from last year I believe before the adjustments. He will probably be a 60 FG says this year. 
 

Fangraphs article on the signing:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/white-sox-and-luis-robert-agree-on-50-million-extension/

Thanks.

Quote

Robert’s tools were undeniable, but the results were lacking. I spoke with Longenhagen, who indicated that Robert worked on a new swing in 2019 and got great results. His groundball rate was 46% in 2018 in a little over 200 plate appearances and he hit no home runs. Even if you include the Arizona Fall League, he hit just two homers in 279 plate appearances across the whole season. With a new swing, Robert dropped his groundball rate to 29% and his homers went way up, smashing 32 in 551 plate appearances. There are still concerns about Robert’s ability to hit good breaking pitches, and his low, 5% walk rate with a strikeout rate near 25% shows there are still swing and miss issues that need to be worked out.

Despite those concerns, his ability to play a good center field combined with improving his swing (and the effort and ability that takes) instills more confidence that Robert will be able to get to his power in major league games. This likely moves Robert up to a 60 FV this year, the same as Jiménez was a year ago.

 

Edited January 3, 2020 by DirtySox

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, BFirebird said:

The 55 is from last year I believe before the adjustments. He will probably be a 60 FG says this year. 
 

Fangraphs article on the signing:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/white-sox-and-luis-robert-agree-on-50-million-extension/

Yeah, Eric actually addressed this and said there wouldn't be a big adjustment for Robert - they updated their rankings at the end of the year and he still sat in the 15-20 range with other 55 FV players. 

Maybe they move him to 60 based on league wide consensus - something EL takes into account - but they are very clearly not as high on Robert. It's just so bizarre given his projections by their systems paired with his tools.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Thanks.

 

I wan to point out one part of this scouting evaluation that is just comical and I see it all the time:

"There are still concerns about Robert’s ability to hit good breaking pitches"

No one hits good breaking pitches consistently. There are guys who hit off-speed well, but they are not teeing off on "good breaking pitches."

If Robert had issues hitting a good fastball, that would be a big problem. Struggling with good off-speed just adds Robert to a list of 99.9% of MLB hitters - especially young ones.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Thanks.

Robert’s tools were undeniable, but the results were lacking. I spoke with Longenhagen, who indicated that Robert worked on a new swing in 2019 and got great results. His groundball rate was 46% in 2018 in a little over 200 plate appearances and he hit no home runs. Even if you include the Arizona Fall League, he hit just two homers in 279 plate appearances across the whole season. With a new swing, Robert dropped his groundball rate to 29% and his homers went way up, smashing 32 in 551 plate appearances. There are still concerns about Robert’s ability to hit good breaking pitches, and his low, 5% walk rate with a strikeout rate near 25% shows there are still swing and miss issues that need to be worked out.

Despite those concerns, his ability to play a good center field combined with improving his swing (and the effort and ability that takes) instills more confidence that Robert will be able to get to his power in major league games. This likely moves Robert up to a 60 FV this year, the same as Jiménez was a year ago.

 

This is the 1st time I heard about him working on a new swing. I assumed it was because of the thumb injuries that sapped his productivity or caused hit to alter his swing to protect the thumb. But hey if he worked on launch angle that's a plus for him and the organization which in turn leads me to think they could talk to Mazara about the same thing.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I wan to point out one part of this scouting evaluation that is just comical and I see it all the time:

"There are still concerns about Robert’s ability to hit good breaking pitches"

No one hits good breaking pitches consistently. There are guys who hit off-speed well, but they are not teeing off on "good breaking pitches."

If Robert had issues hitting a good fastball, that would be a big problem. Struggling with good off-speed just adds Robert to a list of 99.9% of MLB hitters - especially young ones.

That's the 1st thing that popped in my head too. Who the heck hits "good breaking pitches"? More than likely the best you can do on good breaking pitches is take them and hope they are out of the zone like with someone like Keuchel.

It would make more sense if they worded it "his ability to TAKE good breaking pitches" instead of "hit" them.

Edited January 3, 2020 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

That's the 1st thing that popped in my head too. Who the heck hits "good breaking pitches"? More than likely the best you can do on good breaking pitches is take them and hope they are out of the zone like with someone like Keuchel.

It would make more sense if they worded it "his ability to TAKE good breaking pitches" instead of "hit" them.

That's what they mean. Most damage in baseball comes off fastballs or an offspeed/breaking ball hanging over the plate. If pitchers were good enough to throw quality breakers consistently for strikes Baseball would cease to be a game because hitting would be futile. 

[mqr]

44 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Said this there, but the fascinating thing about FG's scouting stubbornness with Robert is that he's their top projected prospect in regards to WAR. Typically you see skepticism around guys who have more tools than results; leading their projections to be less than their prospect ranking - see Moncada for an example here. Robert is projected to be a 3 WAR rookie at 22 years old though; paired with elite tools. 

Robert pairs the two things that are usually love by evalutors - elite, All-MLB level tools with elite production and projections.

I don’t think it’s too weird to have a disconnect in what the scouting oriented guys believe and what the computers are spitting out.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

I don’t think it’s too weird to have a disconnect in what the scouting oriented guys believe and what the computers are spitting out.

Agree 100%, but usually what they disagree on is scouts don't care as much about actual production - "don't scout the stat line, scout the tools." Robert has, arguably, the loudest tools in minor league baseball and possibly the loudest tools in the world of Professional baseball.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's what they mean. Most damage in baseball comes off fastballs or an offspeed/breaking ball hanging over the plate. If pitchers were good enough to throw quality breakers consistently for strikes Baseball would cease to be a game because hitting would be futile. 

The hardest pitch to hit, in my opinion, is still and always will be a well located fastball; this coming from a guy who hit about 050 against off-speed pitches costing myself any chance at progressing further

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's what they mean. Most damage in baseball comes off fastballs or an offspeed/breaking ball hanging over the plate. If pitchers were good enough to throw quality breakers consistently for strikes Baseball would cease to be a game because hitting would be futile. 

If that's what they meant then they should have worded it my way :P. Ray Ray responded to it  in a post the same way I thought of it. No one consistent HITS good breaking stuff well. You need to recognize it and realize when it's going to be a ball and take it. You learn to do this when ahead in the count and knowing baseball to  meaning recognize the count at all times and the men on base and pitchers tendencies. Good hitting is not just physical tools its also a chess game with the pitchesrand you better learn when you have the advantage and when to adjust when they change their approach to you.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 minutes ago, mqr said:

I don’t think it’s too weird to have a disconnect in what the scouting oriented guys believe and what the computers are spitting out.

Especially when you only have one year of bad data and 1 year of good data with a only few months at AAA and the bad data was when he was at a lower level when he was hurt.The tools are great but they don't always translate well if you are not aware that you are playing a game within a game with the pitcher.

Our new poster talks about his baseball IQ . If he adjusts quickly and becomes very good earlier than Eloy then I will believe he can play that game within a game and the baseball IQ is high. If not and he struggles like Moncada did. It might just take longer and Moncada just took too many pitches. That won't be Roberts problem and his learning curve will improve with more experience and if that high baseball IQ is real.

Edited January 3, 2020 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[greg775]

12 hours ago, tray said:

Does Kenny Williams get any credit ?

I wouldn't think so.

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I wouldn't think so.

The guy is still in charge

[Moan4Yoan]

3 minutes ago, mqr said:

The guy is still in charge

If he was still truly in charge, I’m not so sure the Sox ever rebuild.  That dude would be dumpster diving every season trying to win with a low payroll.  I assume Hahn convinced Kenny and Jerry to attempt the rebuild.

[mqr]

7 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

If he was still truly in charge, I’m not so sure the Sox ever rebuild.  That dude would be dumpster diving every season trying to win with a low payroll.  I assume Hahn convinced Kenny and Jerry to attempt the rebuild.

Maybe so, doesn't mean he's not Hahn's boss. 

[tray]

 There are hitters, like James McCann that  have adjusted to a steady diet of outside sinkers and end up driving them for doubles into the gap in Right center . Avi Garcia made that adjustment in his All Star year. Pitchers became too confident that they could get him out on outside pitches so he finally reacted by anticipating location and leaning on those pitches.

It's a cat and mouse game at the plate and sometimes the mice can outwit the cat.  Don't worry about La Pantera.

 

[BFirebird]

52 minutes ago, tray said:

 There are hitters, like James McCann that  have adjusted to a steady diet of outside sinkers and end up driving them for doubles into the gap in Right center . Avi Garcia made that adjustment in his All Star year. Pitchers became too confident that they could get him out on outside pitches so he finally reacted by anticipating location and leaning on those pitches.

It's a cat and mouse game at the plate and sometimes the mice can outwit the cat.  Don't worry about La Pantera.

 

He will need to adjust to become elite, just like everyone else.  We don’t obviously know any of these guys, but I don’t see anything that Moncada & Eloy have done that shows they aren’t willing to and won’t adjust to what pitchers are doing to them and based on his MILB track record I am sure La Pantera is the same way. Having guys like Grandal and EE around will only help development IMO.