Jack Parkman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: What? Those are simply valuation techniques. I’m 100% missing how those have anything to do with front offices being conservative. It does, because it convinces front offices to do nothing instead of trying to win a damn championship. It can backfire on you too. Look at the Yankees with Clint Frazier. He was a top 40 prospect 2 years ago, became blocked and they didn't use him to help themselves at a position of need. Now, his value is significantly worse than it was. Prospects are being valued more than winning. That is my problem. Win a damn Win a Damn world series, worry about the future when it comes. All of the Cub fans that are complaining about trading Gleyber Torres are idiots. They might have a point with Eloy, but he was blocked anyway. I don't want the Sox to make the same mistakes that other teams are making. From what I've seen over the last 20 years, teams have a choice: Multiple playoff appearances with no championship over a decade or more or maximizing a short window and getting at least one. The back end of that is going to be painful. We're seeing it in town with the Blackhawks and Cubs right now. Ask their fans if it's worth it? They'd say yes. Again, players come and go, but championship banners fly forever. Edited January 11, 2020 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: It does, because it convinces front offices to do nothing instead of trying to win a damn championship. It can backfire on you too. Look at the Yankees with Clint Frazier. He was a top 40 prospect 2 years ago, became blocked and they didn't use him to help themselves at a position of need. Now, his value is significantly worse than it was. I don't want the Sox to make the same mistakes that other teams are making. From what I've seen over the last 20 years, teams have a choice: Multiple playoff appearances with no championship over a decade or more or maximizing a short window and getting at least one. The back end of that is going to be painful. We're seeing it in town with the Blackhawks and Cubs right now. They had some old/injury prone outfielders. Keeping a high caliber outfield prospect in that situation isn't a bad move. He just happen to bust. If he came up and raked when they needed, it would have looked great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: It does, because it convinces front offices to do nothing instead of trying to win a damn championship. It can backfire on you too. Look at the Yankees with Clint Frazier. He was a top 40 prospect 2 years ago, became blocked and they didn't use him to help themselves at a position of need. Now, his value is significantly worse than it was. So, the Yankees failing to deal Clint Frazier at the height of his value indicates.....that Sabermetrics contributes to your opinion a front office being too conservative???? The Yankees. The New York Yankees were too conservative and over reliant on sabermetrics and this is the result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said: So, the Yankees failing to deal Clint Frazier at the height of his value indicates.....that Sabermetrics contributes to your opinion a front office being too conservative???? The Yankees. The New York Yankees were too conservative and over reliant on sabermetrics and this is the result. I'm proving that it's a league wide disease. Even the Yankees and the Dodgers, the teams with the highest payrolls in baseball, have fallen prey to it. Go win a damn WS for fucks sake. Flexibility is only theoretical if it's never used. As much as I b**** about KW, this is a point where I'm glad he's still involved. He will tell Hahn to go get what the team needs to win. The goal of baseball isn't to make the playoffs as many times as possible, it's to win a fucking world series. Go do that. I apologize for blaming this on sabermetrics. What I'm really complaining about is front offices being too damn conservative. I blame sabermetric valuation techniques for this pervasive conservatism, not sabermetrics themselves. This is the kind of shit that pisses me off and insults my intelligence as a fan: If the Sox pull this shit with Moncada or Giolito next winter I will tear them a new asshole. Edited January 11, 2020 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 46 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I'm proving that it's a league wide disease. Even the Yankees and the Dodgers, the teams with the highest payrolls in baseball, have fallen prey to it. Go win a damn WS for fucks sake. Flexibility is only theoretical if it's never used. As much as I b**** about KW, this is a point where I'm glad he's still involved. He will tell Hahn to go get what the team needs to win. The goal of baseball isn't to make the playoffs as many times as possible, it's to win a fucking world series. Go do that. I apologize for blaming this on sabermetrics. What I'm really complaining about is front offices being too damn conservative. I blame sabermetric valuation techniques for this pervasive conservatism, not sabermetrics themselves. This is the kind of shit that pisses me off and insults my intelligence as a fan: If the Sox pull this shit with Moncada or Giolito next winter I will tear them a new asshole. You know the numbers they submit aren’t necessarily the ones that try to negotiate for right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 This thread drove a 2001 Honda Civic off a cliff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said: I'm proving that it's a league wide disease. Even the Yankees and the Dodgers, the teams with the highest payrolls in baseball, have fallen prey to it. Go win a damn WS for fucks sake. Flexibility is only theoretical if it's never used. As much as I b**** about KW, this is a point where I'm glad he's still involved. He will tell Hahn to go get what the team needs to win. The goal of baseball isn't to make the playoffs as many times as possible, it's to win a fucking world series. Go do that. I apologize for blaming this on sabermetrics. What I'm really complaining about is front offices being too damn conservative. I blame sabermetric valuation techniques for this pervasive conservatism, not sabermetrics themselves. This is the kind of shit that pisses me off and insults my intelligence as a fan: If the Sox pull this shit with Moncada or Giolito next winter I will tear them a new asshole. The Cubs traded Torres for Chapman and almost didn’t win a championship. There wasn’t some guarantee they would get a ring by making that trade. They took a risk and in that particular case it worked out. That doesn’t always happen though and most teams are trying to create extended windows that give them as many playoff appearances as possible because there is simply a ton of luck in the postseason. That has nothing to do with the valuation techniques you’re quoting but rather logic and risk tolerance. Also, you rip the Dodgers, but didn’t they trade a top 100 prospect for a Machado rental? I don’t blame them for not wanting to trade their blue chippers though. With a $200M+ payroll and a consistent supply of high-end prospects they can legitimately create sustainable success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Quin said: This thread drove a 2001 Honda Civic off a cliff. You imply it didn’t begin at the bottom of a cliff Edited January 11, 2020 by mqr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: I have done research. The Royals and Cubs, and Red Sox sold out for rings. They have one. The Dodgers didn't, and they don't. Players come and go. Championship banners fly forever. The trades for Shields, Cueto and Zobrist were the three finishing touches. Realistically, no small market team was going to be able to afford to keep Herrera, Davis, Holland, Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas. Ventura dying in the car crash and putting their chips in on Gordon and Sal Perez didn’t help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, mqr said: You know the numbers they submit aren’t necessarily the ones that try to negotiate for right? This is more about the fact Berrios and Buxton won’t consider extensions...while they’ve locked in guys like Sano, Kepler, would have to double-check on Rosario and Polanco. It’s a standoff. Eventually, they’re going to be forced to trade their franchise pitcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) My main beef is the all or nothing attitude of baseball execs. Players are expected to either hit a home run or strike out. This despite the fact some managers are still going to the bunt at times when no modern GM thinks bunting is ever a good idea. I also despise the shift caused by computer print outs. Everybody knows where batters are going to hit the ball if it doesn't go over the fence and is put in play. When I see a shift that has three infielders on the right side and up the middle and one infielder standing at shortstop, it angers me to no end when the hitter refuses to tap the ball to the left side and get an automatic single. I also hate the game of bringing in relievers for lefty/righty matchups as early as the fifth or sixth inning. Very boring. I also hate the umpires refusing to call a strike a strike. Baseball has no control over its umpires. Baseball is in a lot of trouble if ratings start to decline. They say the average baseball fan is over 55 right? Kids despise baseball. This is not good for the sport. Edited January 12, 2020 by greg775 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 8:35 AM, Minoso-Pierce-Allen-HOF said: For those upset with the Astros using electronic surveillance to steal signs please get over it as technology has taken over the game. Lost me right here for good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, greg775 said: My main beef is the all or nothing attitude of baseball execs. Players are expected to either hit a home run or strike out. This despite the fact some managers are still going to the bunt at times when no modern GM thinking bunting is ever a good idea. I also despise the shift caused by computer print outs. Everybody knows where batters are going to hit the ball if it doesn't go over the fence and is put in play. When I see a shift that has three infielders on the right side and up the middle and one infielder standing at shortstop, it angers me to no end when the hitter refuses to tap the ball to the left side and get an automatic single. I also hate the game of bringing in relievers for lefty/righty matchups as early as the fifth or sixth inning. Very boring. I also hate the umpires refusing to call a strike a strike. Baseball has no control over its umpires. Baseball is in a lot of trouble if ratings start to decline. They say the average baseball fan is over 55 right? Kids despise baseball. This is not good for the sport. The walk is dead! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: I'm proving that it's a league wide disease. Even the Yankees and the Dodgers, the teams with the highest payrolls in baseball, have fallen prey to it. Go win a damn WS for fucks sake. Flexibility is only theoretical if it's never used. As much as I b**** about KW, this is a point where I'm glad he's still involved. He will tell Hahn to go get what the team needs to win. The goal of baseball isn't to make the playoffs as many times as possible, it's to win a fucking world series. Go do that. I apologize for blaming this on sabermetrics. What I'm really complaining about is front offices being too damn conservative. I blame sabermetric valuation techniques for this pervasive conservatism, not sabermetrics themselves. This is the kind of shit that pisses me off and insults my intelligence as a fan: If the Sox pull this shit with Moncada or Giolito next winter I will tear them a new asshole. So, just about the Berrios thing. That 375k turns into millions of dollars over the arb process since they build off each other. I get the sentiment I guess but it's not really 375k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 57 minutes ago, ron883 said: The walk is dead! Well, not really, since OPS is so important, and walks comprise a significant percentage of on-base percentage, which gets fed into another important formula that essentially everyone in baseball currently recognizes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: So, just about the Berrios thing. That 375k turns into millions of dollars over the arb process since they build off each other. I get the sentiment I guess but it's not really 375k. Given the lack of multiyear contract given out by this front office, it's a better conclusion that the front office is the issue in not getting him signed. Like the multi-year extensions given to Polanco, Kepler, and now Sano? I think the problem with Berrios on a long term deal is he's going into his year 26 season and is just hitting his first year of arbitration. There's a lot of variables for both sides to consider and it's not a simple construct. It's a lot harder to work out what a "fair" deal is and what both sides even want. Berrios has been healthy and good (almost exactly as good as Wheeler, who just got $118M and everyone wanted to be our ace next year, over the last 2 seasons). It's not crazy at all for Berrios to think, I want to get to FA as soon as I can, because I'm already as good as a guy who just scored a ton of money. I'm guessing he's not interested in buying out a year of FA right now; if he had a significant injury I bet he'd be a bit more interested. For the Twins, this is a guy who has been healthy and good and is just coming into his prime. But he's had a second half lull in the past two years and there's some risk that this is who he is: there's not another leap to take (which is what Wheeler's contract is about: every team that bid on him was better that he has another gear to unlock). There's also the question of injury: just because someone has been healthy doesn't guarantee that they will STAY healthy. You're trying to guess on whether or not the innings he's piling up are a signal that he's just a horse who isn't vulnerable to stress injuries or if he's a guy who is going to blow out their elbow after 1000 MLB innings and never be the same player. A Berrios extension is the most complicated to calculate of any of the arbitration guys. Not surprised that one hasn't been figured out. I'd like it to happen, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Also, I'm not worried at all about the $375K difference in their numbers. They're close enough together that Berrios isn't going to be insulted, the team isn't going to be pissed if they lose in arbitration, which means that no one has to get too aggressive if it gets to a hearing (and they could settle easily by splitting the difference somewhere near the middle before it ever gets there. wanna give him a "win" if you're the team? Instead of offering a 50% split, go 60-65% because $50K means nothing to your budget). http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/twins-and-2020-arbitration-r8816?st=50#commentsStart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Given the lack of multiyear contract given out by this front office, it's a better conclusion that the front office is the issue in not getting him signed. Like the multi-year extensions given to Polanco, Kepler, and now Sano? I think the problem with Berrios on a long term deal is he's going into his year 26 season and is just hitting his first year of arbitration. There's a lot of variables for both sides to consider and it's not a simple construct. It's a lot harder to work out what a "fair" deal is and what both sides even want. Berrios has been healthy and good (almost exactly as good as Wheeler, who just got $118M and everyone wanted to be our ace next year, over the last 2 seasons). It's not crazy at all for Berrios to think, I want to get to FA as soon as I can, because I'm already as good as a guy who just scored a ton of money. I'm guessing he's not interested in buying out a year of FA right now; if he had a significant injury I bet he'd be a bit more interested. For the Twins, this is a guy who has been healthy and good and is just coming into his prime. But he's had a second half lull in the past two years and there's some risk that this is who he is: there's not another leap to take (which is what Wheeler's contract is about: every team that bid on him was better that he has another gear to unlock). There's also the question of injury: just because someone has been healthy doesn't guarantee that they will STAY healthy. You're trying to guess on whether or not the innings he's piling up are a signal that he's just a horse who isn't vulnerable to stress injuries or if he's a guy who is going to blow out their elbow after 1000 MLB innings and never be the same player. A Berrios extension is the most complicated to calculate of any of the arbitration guys. Not surprised that one hasn't been figured out. I'd like it to happen, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Also, I'm not worried at all about the $375K difference in their numbers. They're close enough together that Berrios isn't going to be insulted, the team isn't going to be pissed if they lose in arbitration, which means that no one has to get too aggressive if it gets to a hearing (and they could settle easily by splitting the difference somewhere near the middle before it ever gets there. wanna give him a "win" if you're the team? Instead of offering a 50% split, go 60-65% because $50K means nothing to your budget). http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/twins-and-2020-arbitration-r8816?st=50#commentsStart I think they tried offering him an extension last year. Not sure what the differences were obviously but it didn't get signed. Either he's getting lowballed or he wants to go to FA imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said: I think they tried offering him an extension last year. Not sure what the differences were obviously but it didn't get signed. Either he's getting lowballed or he wants to go to FA imo. The story has always been that he and Buxton wanted out of Minnesota. Rosario is on the trading block (partially) because he, too, hasn’t agreed to an extension. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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