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Squirmin' for Yermin

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Vlad and Franco also got 70 fv grades. Fangraphs is a bit stingier with  70s and grades in general but I like that about them. Sure fans prefer hype but it is good they are a bit more critical even if they are a bit low on some (for example 65 on acuna).

Robert could be a 70 but that 20% k-bb% is a certain risk. He still will be good due to defense and power but is he a 70 when he has a 310 opb or so?

Of course robert could tighten up that plate skill a little too and then he is super good but there is at least some risk. I think the 55 is too low though but 70 imo is a bit high.

 

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2 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Vlad and Franco also got 70 fv grades. Fangraphs is a bit stingier with  70s and grades in general but I like that about them. Sure fans prefer hype but it is good they are a bit more critical even if they are a bit low on some (for example 65 on acuna).

Robert could be a 70 but that 20% k-bb% is a certain risk. He still will be good due to defense and power but is he a 70 when he has a 310 opb or so?

Of course robert could tighten up that plate skill a little too and then he is super good but there is at least some risk. I think the 55 is too low though but 70 imo is a bit high.

 

1. All prospects have risk

2. There are more All-stars in baseball than 70 grades given out by FG's by nearly 20 times.

3. Scouting should try to be right, not cautiously optimistic

4. It's OK to be wrong about a guy and evaluators need to get over that fear. 

5. Robert is a 55 on FG; so he's no where near a 70.

6. Every prospect has concerns, and in what world does Robert have a .310 OBP? He is projected for a .317 (still low) but he was running 340-380 last year. And yes, no prospect is perfect so Robert deserves a 70; his ceiling is elite.

 

70 isn't too high for generational tools. This thought process that if he doesn't pan out, then my grade looks stupid is naive. Luis Robert is projected to be a 3 WAR player in the MLB as a 22 year old rookie; if that's not a 70 talent, then nothing is. It's one of the rosiest projections for a prospect I've seen.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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70 is better than all star. Fg has a 65 as an all star, 70 is a guy Who averages 5 war in their Prime.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/

There are many guys who can get to 5 war but AVERAGING 5 war over 4-5 years is quite rare.

To be a true 70 you need to have at least like 22 war in 5 years (a bad year is ok but most years must be 5 or close on average).

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This has kind of been the catch-all thread for prospect rankings so I'll just post it here. BP top 101 came out

6. Luis Robert
13. Nick Madrigal
20. Michael Kopech
31. Andrew Vaughn

They remain super high on Madrigal and are a borderline skeptic on Robert, with FanGraphs the real outlier there. Unsurprising, but kind of a bummer that no publication is slipping any other guy even in to the back end of their top 100s.

Edited by TomPickle
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4 hours ago, TomPickle said:

This has kind of been the catch-all thread for prospect rankings so I'll just post it here. BP top 101 came out

6. Luis Robert
13. Nick Madrigal
20. Michael Kopech
31. Andrew Vaughn

They remain super high on Madrigal and are a borderline skeptic on Robert, with FanGraphs the real outlier there. Unsurprising, but kind of a bummer that no publication is slipping any other guy even in to the back end of their top 100s.

If Dunning were healthy he'd be top 100.  Let's not all forget he was rated in the 50s-60s before his injury last year!

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5 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

If Dunning were healthy he'd be top 100.  Let's not all forget he was rated in the 50s-60s before his injury last year!

76 at BP, 80 at MLB Pipeline, not in the top 100 for Baseball America pre-season 2019. His injury was handled very poorly by the White Sox.

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1 hour ago, TomPickle said:

76 at BP, 80 at MLB Pipeline, not in the top 100 for Baseball America pre-season 2019. His injury was handled very poorly by the White Sox.

What was poorly handled? As I recalled it was pretty standard protocol.

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5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

What was poorly handled? As I recalled it was pretty standard protocol.

From an outsider perspective it seemed obvious he was going to need TJ and they just kept pushing it back until he finally did have TJ several months later and killed any chance of him being able to pitch in 2019.

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6 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

From an outsider perspective it seemed obvious he was going to need TJ and they just kept pushing it back until he finally did have TJ several months later and killed any chance of him being able to pitch in 2019.

Ahh. They always try conservative rehab first depending on the tests and imaging results. I think it was handled appropriately. 

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19 hours ago, ptatc said:

Ahh. They always try conservative rehab first depending on the tests and imaging results. I think it was handled appropriately. 

While I agree with you, it's also worth considering that the downside of the conservative rehab was that Dunning basically won't have thrown competitive pitches in 24 months by the time he returns. For a player who needs reps to develop, that's a worry too.

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7 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

While I agree with you, it's also worth considering that the downside of the conservative rehab was that Dunning basically won't have thrown competitive pitches in 24 months by the time he returns. For a player who needs reps to develop, that's a worry too.

It is. And that is a downside. However, I think the health of the player should be the primary concern and it's always better to avoid any surgery whenever possible.

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