COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

I just dont believe we have enough research to confidently conclude that 10-15% of the US population will require hospitalization and need to be there for weeks. Maybe at the end we will, but right now there is a disconnect between certain facts we are being presented. If for example Ohio has 100k current cases and even using 5% rate, you are talking 5,000 people in hospitals for weeks with it. As of now, I have not heard of this happening.

And the last part of your post makes no sense. If you arent going to the hospital for flu symptoms, how can you be going for COVID symptoms. In my moms case she didnt leave bed for 3 days, had a fever, cough, shortness of breath and is over 70 years old. That is the exact person who should be getting looked at. But in January of this year, no one in the US was looking for it at all. 

The statement by the person in ohio was not that they had 100s of thousands infected currently, it was a poorly phrased statement that they expect that eventually.

[chitownsportsfan]

Trump is doing better than Boris.  let that fucking sink in.

[Chisoxfn]

32 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There is absolutely a way to know if ER admissions are reflecting hundreds of thousands of people being sick, because hospitals would run out of beds. Whether the rate of hospitalization is 10% or 15% doesn't matter - it's large and people who require hospitalization are there for weeks. If people are showing up and they're not severe cases, they're being sent home. 

You shouldn't be going to a hospital with flu-like symptoms, but this virus is killing elderly people by causing severe respiratory distress. In other words, people literally cannot breathe in the severe cases, and lungs giving up winds up being a major cause  of death. You cannot just recover from not being able to breathe by having a bowl of chicken soup.

I read some stats that S.Korea had the highest population testing positive for the virus as 20-29 year olds and it appears most of them were asympomatic.  Not sure if that was accurate or not (can't find the link but it looked like it was linking to a S.Korea government website).  That is where I am going with all of this.  Has this been around longer than we thought and more masked from the fact we already saw what was thought as a bad flu season as being partially driven by early instances of medical jam ups on this?  What I don't know is how much they actually test for Influenza when you go in for the flu or not?  

At all points I get confused at everything going on out there and presume there is a data point none of us know about.  And by all means debunk away (can't remember...for all I know it was a chart I read here).  

[Jerksticks]

5 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I read some stats that S.Korea had the highest populate testing positive for the virus as 20-29 year olds and it appears most of them were asympomatic.  Not sure if that was accurate or not (can't find the link but it looked like it was linking to a S.Korea government website).  That is where I am going with all of this.  Has this been around longer than we thought and more masked from the fact we already saw what was thought as a bad flu season as being partially driven by early instances of medical jam ups on this?  What I don't know is how much they actually test for Influenza when you go in for the flu or not?  

At all points I get confused at everything going on out there and presume there is a data point none of us know about.  

All the people spouting off high hospitalization rates never include the asymptomatic rate.  But that’s because it’s not available.  And it could be huge, we don’t know.  The only data we have is from a cruise ship and I think that estimated about 20% unaffected.  But that sample is so small.  
 

But I think you’re heading in the right direction with your thinking.  It explains not testing as the national strategy.  Match that up with 2 months of super-infectious virus flying around the world and you’ve got the foundation for trying to understand what’s going on.  

Edited March 16, 2020 by Jerksticks

[Chisoxfn]

6 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

All the people spouting off high hospitalization rates never include the asymptomatic rate.  But that’s because it’s not available.  And it could be huge, we don’t know.  The only data we have is from a cruise ship and I think that estimated about 20% unaffected.  But that sample is so small.  
 

But I think you’re heading in the right direction with your thinking.  It explains not testing as the national strategy.  Match that up with 2 months of super-infectious virus flying around the world and you’ve got the foundation for trying to understand what’s going on.  

And demographics on a cruise ship likely would magnify the situation (i'm going to presume avg. age of cruise is much different than avg. age of US).  

[turnin' two]

17 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Trump is doing better than Boris.  let that fucking sink in.

Obviously there have been mistakes, and everything he has said needs to be basically ignored, but the Trump administration hasn't failed on all fronts.  He got a lot of crap, being called racist and xenophobic (about standard) when he blocked travel to China.  Which was absolutely the right move in retrospect.  Same thing with Europe.  He was called all sorts of names, and criticized for not blocking the UK and Ireland, where there were far fewer cases.  Their cases spiked the next day and they were added to the ban.  Those have all been, while unpopular, I believe, the right moves for containing this and slowing the spread across the US.  

Also, not all the failures can be put on Trump, state level leadership has responsibility here as well. 

With that said, we should have been better prepared.  We saw what happened in China.  But many (myself included) didn't believe it was that big of a deal.  Many, also rightly, didn't trust any of the information coming out of China.  Then South Korea and Japan seemed to have much milder results than Japan did.  That made it easy to say this was overhyped.  Then came Italy.  Italy is the warning the world can believe.  I can almost forgive and forget any opinions expressed about Corona before Italy happened.  The testing here hasn't been acceptable.  Especially with the time available.  Since the middle of last week, I think the US has been on top of stuff, being very aggressive in terms of trying to cut this thing off.  It hasn't all been federal, but it shouldn't be either.  The states have broad powers to combat this sort of thing.  It is ignorant and simple minded to just say "blame Trump" for all of this.  

Edited March 16, 2020 by turnin' two

[turnin' two]

5 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

And demographics on a cruise ship likely would magnify the situation (i'm going to presume avg. age of cruise is much different than avg. age of US).  

I also know, that even if you get onto a cruise ship in good shape, you leave with a dose of obesity, from personal experience.  ?

 

I would guess that cruiselines like Royal Caribbean, Carnival and Disney skew younger than the others.

Edited March 16, 2020 by turnin' two

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

All the people spouting off high hospitalization rates never include the asymptomatic rate.  But that’s because it’s not available.  And it could be huge, we don’t know.  The only data we have is from a cruise ship and I think that estimated about 20% unaffected.  But that sample is so small.  
 

But I think you’re heading in the right direction with your thinking.  It explains not testing as the national strategy.  Match that up with 2 months of super-infectious virus flying around the world and you’ve got the foundation for trying to understand what’s going on.  

There were over 3000 people on that ship and they were all tested and quarantined. 700 or so tested positive. 

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Obviously there have been mistakes, and everything he has said needs to be basically ignored, but the Trump administration hasn't failed on all fronts.  He got a lot of crap, being called racist and xenophobic (about standard) when he blocked travel to China.  Which was absolutely the right move in retrospect.  Same thing with Europe.  He was called all sorts of names, and criticized for not blocking the UK and Ireland, where there were far fewer cases.  Their cases spiked the next day and they were added to the ban.  Those have all been, while unpopular, I believe, the right moves for containing this and slowing the spread across the US.  

Also, not all the failures can be put on Trump, state level leadership has responsibility here as well. 

With that said, we should have been better prepared.  We saw what happened in China.  But many (myself included) didn't believe it was that big of a deal.  Many, also rightly, didn't trust any of the information coming out of China.  Then South Korea and Japan seemed to have much milder results than Japan did.  That made it easy to say this was overhyped.  Then came Italy.  Italy is the warning the world can believe.  I can almost forgive and forget any opinions expressed about Corona before Italy happened.  The testing here hasn't been acceptable.  Especially with the time available.  Since the middle of last week, I think the US has been on top of stuff, being very aggressive in terms of trying to cut this thing off.  It hasn't all been federal, but it shouldn't be either.  The states have broad powers to combat this sort of thing.  It is ignorant and simple minded to just say "blame Trump" for all of this.  

The customs lines at the airports would strongly disagree. 

[Balta1701]

22 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I read some stats that S.Korea had the highest population testing positive for the virus as 20-29 year olds and it appears most of them were asympomatic.  Not sure if that was accurate or not (can't find the link but it looked like it was linking to a S.Korea government website).  That is where I am going with all of this.  Has this been around longer than we thought and more masked from the fact we already saw what was thought as a bad flu season as being partially driven by early instances of medical jam ups on this?  What I don't know is how much they actually test for Influenza when you go in for the flu or not?  

At all points I get confused at everything going on out there and presume there is a data point none of us know about.  And by all means debunk away (can't remember...for all I know it was a chart I read here).  

Yes, something like 50% of the cases are asymptomatic or nearly so, and they're not getting tested. But Italy has 25000 confirmed cases and is getting 400 bodies a day as a consequence. If people are telling me that Ohio alone has 4x that many cases, even with demographic changes, where are the thousand bodies a day from Ohio?

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Obviously there have been mistakes, and everything he has said needs to be basically ignored, but the Trump administration hasn't failed on all fronts.  He got a lot of crap, being called racist and xenophobic (about standard) when he blocked travel to China.  Which was absolutely the right move in retrospect.  Same thing with Europe.  He was called all sorts of names, and criticized for not blocking the UK and Ireland, where there were far fewer cases.  Their cases spiked the next day and they were added to the ban.  Those have all been, while unpopular, I believe, the right moves for containing this and slowing the spread across the US.  

Also, not all the failures can be put on Trump, state level leadership has responsibility here as well. 

With that said, we should have been better prepared.  We saw what happened in China.  But many (myself included) didn't believe it was that big of a deal.  Many, also rightly, didn't trust any of the information coming out of China.  Then South Korea and Japan seemed to have much milder results than Japan did.  That made it easy to say this was overhyped.  Then came Italy.  Italy is the warning the world can believe.  I can almost forgive and forget any opinions expressed about Corona before Italy happened.  The testing here hasn't been acceptable.  Especially with the time available.  Since the middle of last week, I think the US has been on top of stuff, being very aggressive in terms of trying to cut this thing off.  It hasn't all been federal, but it shouldn't be either.  The states have broad powers to combat this sort of thing.  It is ignorant and simple minded to just say "blame Trump" for all of this.  

Up to there was fully correct.

[Jenksismyhero]

14 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Obviously there have been mistakes, and everything he has said needs to be basically ignored, but the Trump administration hasn't failed on all fronts.  He got a lot of crap, being called racist and xenophobic (about standard) when he blocked travel to China.  Which was absolutely the right move in retrospect.  Same thing with Europe.  He was called all sorts of names, and criticized for not blocking the UK and Ireland, where there were far fewer cases.  Their cases spiked the next day and they were added to the ban.  Those have all been, while unpopular, I believe, the right moves for containing this and slowing the spread across the US.  

Also, not all the failures can be put on Trump, state level leadership has responsibility here as well. 

With that said, we should have been better prepared.  We saw what happened in China.  But many (myself included) didn't believe it was that big of a deal.  Many, also rightly, didn't trust any of the information coming out of China.  Then South Korea and Japan seemed to have much milder results than Japan did.  That made it easy to say this was overhyped.  Then came Italy.  Italy is the warning the world can believe.  I can almost forgive and forget any opinions expressed about Corona before Italy happened.  The testing here hasn't been acceptable.  Especially with the time available.  Since the middle of last week, I think the US has been on top of stuff, being very aggressive in terms of trying to cut this thing off.  It hasn't all been federal, but it shouldn't be either.  The states have broad powers to combat this sort of thing.  It is ignorant and simple minded to just say "blame Trump" for all of this.  

Policy choices and even timing of those choices aside, the absolute worst part of Trump is the manner in which he is addressing the nation. He is clearly flying by the seat of his pants. As soon as he speaks, everyone behind him (the actual grown-ups in the room) start shuffling in disbelief. He then exits the stage and the adults correct him and provide the calm, level-headed, truth that the country needs. 

Today's slip that the 15-day guideline could go into August set the market spiraling. In fact each time he talks the market has tanked except for Friday.  I don't understand why Trump is even talking publicly. Let this Dr. Fauci guy run the show, including all press conferences. Name him the pandemic czar and be done with it. The market, and country in general, will be so much better off.
 

The bolded is an interesting take since state governments have been leading the charge here. The WH is merely reacting to the news and copying states like California, Washington and New York, only 12-24 hours later.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

Policy choices and even timing of those choices aside, the absolute worst part of Trump is the manner in which he is addressing the nation. He is clearly flying by the seat of his pants. As soon as he speaks, everyone behind him (the actual grown-ups in the room) start shuffling in disbelief. He then exits the stage and the adults correct him and provide the calm, level-headed, truth that the country needs. 

Today's slip that the 15-day guideline could go into August set the market spiraling. In fact each time he talks the market has tanked except for Friday.  I don't understand why Trump is even talking publicly. Let this Dr. Fauci guy run the show, including all press conferences. Name him the pandemic czar and be done with it. The market, and country in general, will be so much better off.
 

The bolded is an interesting take since state governments have been leading the charge here. The WH is merely reacting to the news and copying states like California, Washington and New York, only 12-24 hours later.

Every single time he has talked during this crisis, the market has shit itself.  We lost 1000 points today while he was talking.  If that isn't a statement of what the markets think of his plans, I don't know what is.

[Balta1701]

Full blown Shelter in Place order for the Bay Area CA. Takeout restaurants, grocery stores deemed essential functions that will remain open but that's  it. 3 weeks. 

[Soxbadger]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Every single time he has talked during this crisis, the market has shit itself.  We lost 1000 points today while he was talking.  If that isn't a statement of what the markets think of his plans, I don't know what is.

 

Last night when I knew the bloodshed was coming I was wondering if he could just shut down the markets for 3 weeks. Its the only way they will stabilize absent Trump saying that he is going into self imposed silence for the next X months.

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Full blown Shelter in Place order for the Bay Area CA. Takeout restaurants, grocery stores deemed essential functions that will remain open but that's  it. 3 weeks. 

complete failure of leadership at every level.  This is overboard and will do more harm than good.  It's one thing to shut down public venues and gathering spaces.  It's another to tell someone they can't go get their car fixed or get a cup of coffee to go.

[Chisoxfn]

26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes, something like 50% of the cases are asymptomatic or nearly so, and they're not getting tested. But Italy has 25000 confirmed cases and is getting 400 bodies a day as a consequence. If people are telling me that Ohio alone has 4x that many cases, even with demographic changes, where are the thousand bodies a day from Ohio?

This is the part I do agree with you on. We should be seeing the uptick in ER visits and the only thing I could see masking it, is everything hit us far earlier than we thought and we just thought it was a very bad flu season.  I know in our area, starting about a month ago, the flu was "exploding" and causing much larger ER visits vs. normal flu season (I should caveat...I limit this to the specific offices I took my daughter to about 2-3 weeks ago when she was down with something and signs they had posted noting the # of cases vs. last year (by week and month).  The thing I don't know is, do they actually test all those people for the flu or just people for the flu who could actually benefit from tamiflu (don't you basically need to take that like the 1st day for it to do much)?  

[Chisoxfn]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Every single time he has talked during this crisis, the market has shit itself.  We lost 1000 points today while he was talking.  If that isn't a statement of what the markets think of his plans, I don't know what is.

Technically, Friday the market returns doubled while he was talking.  So I will at least give him that.  

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

complete failure of leadership at every level.  This is overboard and will do more harm than good.  It's one thing to shut down public venues and gathering spaces.  It's another to tell someone they can't go get their car fixed or get a cup of coffee to go.

If I had to guess...in order to justify that, they have to have numbers from hospitals saying the surge has started.

[Balta1701]

10 hours ago, soxfan49 said:

Expect a big announcement from the top soon, per my sources. All I can say is make sure you have food.

https://apnews.com/7edbc93627b1040a422f2d07f50d4cda

Quote

 The Trump administration is alleging that a foreign disinformation campaign is underway aimed at spreading fear in the country amid the coronavirus pandemic, three U.S. officials said Monday.

On Sunday, federal officials began confronting what they said was a deliberate effort by a foreign entity to sow fears of a nationwide quarantine amid the virus outbreak. Agencies took coordinated action Sunday evening to deny that any such plans were put in place, as they tried to calm a nation already on edge by disruptions to daily life caused by the virus.

The three U.S. officials did not name the foreign entity they believe to be responsible. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

...your sources include Putin?

[G&T]

37 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

complete failure of leadership at every level.  This is overboard and will do more harm than good.  It's one thing to shut down public venues and gathering spaces.  It's another to tell someone they can't go get their car fixed or get a cup of coffee to go.

You base this on what? 

[turnin' two]

4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

   It is 1918 Spanish Flu, but in a technological world.  It is incredible.

Haha Ok.  I said something silly I guess, but at least I didn't compare this to a pandemic which literally killed 3% of the people on the planet, destroying nearly as much life as all of WWII.

In my opinion, if you think the US hasn't done anything right, you're a partisan hack that will believe anything the democrats tell you.

If you don't think the US has done anything wrong, you're a partisan hack that will believe anything the republicans tell you.

 

O'Hare was a mess.  And obviously should have been better prepared.  With the travel ban, there was sure to be a rush of people trying to get in.  The lack of preparation is ridiculous.

[turnin' two]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

https://apnews.com/7edbc93627b1040a422f2d07f50d4cda

...your sources include Putin?

Is that the guy that said the Sox were going to sign Torii Hunter?

[scotty22hotty]

51 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Up to there was fully correct.

blow it out your ass. The Dems focused all of their energy on the impeachment farse for ALL of January and first week of Feb while the country could've been focused on this Chinese contravirus. Instead they called him racist for his Jan 31 ban on China and possibly avoiding a Europe-like meltdown.

Thankfully JB is manning up as a gov and taking initiative instead of spending his entire time blaming Trump.

44 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

The bolded is an interesting take since state governments have been leading the charge here. The WH is merely reacting to the news and copying states like California, Washington and New York, only 12-24 hours later.

Believe it or not but Trump is not a dictator... It's the states role to lead the charge over it's population. Why didn't any states act when Trump closed travel from China? ...oh right, hindsight is 20/20

Time for all of us to start living in the now that's grounded in reality instead of blaming others.

[G&T]

4 minutes ago, scotty22hotty said:

blow it out your ass. The Dems focused all of their energy on the impeachment farse for ALL of January and first week of Feb while the country could've been focused on this Chinese contravirus. Instead they called him racist for his Jan 31 ban on China and possibly avoiding a Europe-like meltdown.

Thankfully JB is manning up as a gov and taking initiative instead of spending his entire time blaming Trump.

Believe it or not but Trump is not a dictator... It's the states role to lead the charge over it's population. Why didn't any states act when Trump closed travel from China? ...oh right, hindsight is 20/20

Time for all of us to start living in the now that's grounded in reality instead of blaming others.

Local governments look to the feds on national health issues. Local health departments deal with food licensing and hoarders etc. Not pandemics. The response falls to the feds. 
Did the states decline the WHO tests? No.