COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Meanwhile the clown in the White House was telling us it was a Democratic hoax, and that it would go away in April when it got warm outside.  It is impressive how the  Dems could simultaneously do nothing and create a panic all at once.  Those guys are talented.  I am also a big fan of you telling people not to blame others, while filling a post full of blame for everyone but the leader of the free world.  But then again he told you guys he takes no responsibility for it, so you all march off to do his bidding for him.

The Dems are so effective we got Merrick Garland blocked, lost the Senate/House to the Tea Party, lost most state legislatures, lost the ability to draw districts/gerrymandering, lost control of spending on elections (Citizens United), lost the Senate to a decade of obstructionism of Mitch McConnell, lost an impossible election to lose (2016), lost the unions, lost the battle over patriotism, lost the bond with religious groups over the fight for peace/social justice, lost the fight over gun control, messed up the Occupy movement, managed to get the socialism label attached to policies that are commonplace or taken for granted on health care and the environment in Europe, lost the health care battle from 1993 to 2009/10...and still can’t unify young people and Hispanics behind its presidential candidate.  The list goes on and on.

It’s no surprise than only 40% of Republicans believe the coronavirus is real.  They are much more effective at messaging, staying unified around core issues...and scaring people, essentially.  No compromising, killer mentality.

We do have safe spaces, correct approaches to gender pronouns and the #metoomovement.

I jest.  But basically, we suck, lol.

Edited March 17, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797
 

This is the best article I have read so far about where we could have been...with this particular pandemic in the US.  Politico has always been fair and balanced about covering both sides from an especially harsh lens, the anti C-SPAN.

Hopefully, the model in the future continues to be the presidential turnover from Bush to Clinton, but just have a feeling the next one won’t go easily, either.  Probably much better with Biden, than Sanders...if that’s the outcome (yes, just four weeks ago it would have been 500,000 to one odds in Las Vegas.)

We’ll never know had they taken this seriously...or had the pandemic response team not been disbanded/folded into NSC...but having Tom Bossert and Dr. Tim Ziemer and Lisa Monaco NOT around has hurt.

It has also shown the limitations of what even private foundations like Gates can do in times like this.  People look to government for reassurance and a trustworthy safety net.

 

End of politics for today...continue on.

Edited March 17, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

This virus isn't jack shit for most healthy Americans.  My god can you imagine if it wasn't?  This is a dry run for a real nightmare.  Might be a blessing that way.

Still shaking my head that Dr. Birx called on "millenials" to fix this today and asked us to stop going to bars.  Hey, Doc, we aren't Gen Z!  We are mostly 30 somethings now!  We sure as shit ain't on IG licking toilet bowls for the "#coronaviruschallenge"  That's on Gen Z. You know all those kids that were partying it up this weekend in Boston, NYC and elsewhere for St Patty's day.   You think 30 somethings are out doing that?

Well maybe you do since you're 63 yourself.

The panic if this particular virus was killing children at more typical viral rates would be world ending I think.

[StrangeSox]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes, something like 50% of the cases are asymptomatic or nearly so, and they're not getting tested. But Italy has 25000 confirmed cases and is getting 400 bodies a day as a consequence. If people are telling me that Ohio alone has 4x that many cases, even with demographic changes, where are the thousand bodies a day from Ohio?

Indiana came out today with an estimate of 60k people currently infected in that state alone. 

 

https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/likely-more-than-60000-hoosiers-have-covid-19-says-state-health-director

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Indiana came out today with an estimate of 60k people currently infected in that state alone. 

 

https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/likely-more-than-60000-hoosiers-have-covid-19-says-state-health-director

So what, 500 people died today there from this?

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Could likely be the two different strains....what are being defined as L and S, one more deadly (3-5%), one much more contagious, less deadly (0.5-1.5%?).  My guess is Wuhan and China sent more directly to Italy...because of our connections through fashion/textiles, travel/tourism, car manufacturing, education, etc.

Italy also has more multi generation families stuck all together in one house or apartment...like here in China.  US has that major advantage, at least.

Seems in the US we’re running at 1.6-2.0% mortality rate, but who really knows?  Not the CDC or HHS.

https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2020/3/5/21166249/coronavirus-outbreak-second-strain-l-s

DNA evidence was run by the U of Washington before it shut down and verified that there were at least 2 distinct releases of separate virus lines in Washington State, most likely in mid-January. There was at least one other release in California separate from the Washington ones. Beyond that, there's probably been many more, including whatever strain was circulating in Italy where it has been as deadly as anywhere, but those are the ones we know about from the full evidence. There's almost certainly a good variety of strains circulating in the US, particularly after the infect as many people as possible experiments at the airports last weekend.

[StrangeSox]

46 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So what, 500 people died today there from this?

Perhaps there is a disconnect in the understanding of the various numbers and how comparable they are? This is now at least two separate public health officials releasing similar estimates for their states. Take it up with them, I guess. 

 

[Balta1701]

Pennsylvania will close all their liquor stores.

[Jack Parkman]

I have severe anxiety and not being sure if you're having a panic attack or trouble breathing is serious at this time. 

[The Beast]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

That’s the bizarre thing about being a parent today.

I’m 50 and have been teaching for about twenty years and see doing it for about five more years...online classes can certainly replace in person, and advising students on their university essays can be done from anywhere.

But my son just turned five (no part or cake or gifts in middle of quarantine)...and I have no idea if STEM is the obvious path for him, particularly computer science and AI/data & quantitative analysis.   Part of me believes a return to classics education...critical thinking, innovation, creativity...is key, which is essentially STEAM, arts/creativity combined with Science, Technology, Engineering and Math.   Let’s say you are an architect.  You can give the computer parameters for a design...it spits out 1000 possibilities, but the human brings value-added perspective to choose and enhance/improve upon the computer choices.  

Collaboration/cooperation, in other words.  Don’t train for any career that can be wiped out in the next 10-15 years by AI/quantum computing. 

No easy answers.  I’d suggest reading Homo Deus...if you have free time for reading coming up.   Another I’ve been reading recently is the Three Body Problem trilogy.

  

I can see how your job could change in the next five years and even how my wife’s job in a public school could change in a crisis like this. At least her school isn’t just wasting the days out of school and is trying some form of online learning.

Your example of an architect is exactly how data science and AI can support humans but can’t replace entire jobs. Careers thought to be safe (underwriter, lawyer, accountant) can have tasks automated away and to a certain extent can even have jobs taken from software.

My issue is that I am more of a jack of all trades with backgrounds in communication, business and data science, but I am a master of none, not having completed four years of a journalism program like I had originally intended, getting a business degree and getting a data science graduate degree to get some updated skills, especially since my employer paid 4/5ths of it and I’m not sure the MBA would have been much better.

I am drawn to learning to code in Python and because SQL comes with a data analyst job description, I will learn that too. I also have an interest in JavaScript since web development appears to still have a good outlook. If I lose my next job because of automation, I have thought about nursing or some sort of informatics career since I don’t consider nursing to being threatened by anything. I guess I would tell my future kids to focus on majoring in a profession in demand instead of something general to protect your economic future.

 

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, The Beast said:

I can see how your job could change in the next five years and even how my wife’s job in a public school could change in a crisis like this. At least her school isn’t just wasting the days out of school and is trying some form of online learning.

Your example of an architect is exactly how data science and AI can support humans but can’t replace entire jobs. Careers thought to be safe (underwriter, lawyer, accountant) can have tasks automated away and to a certain extent can even have jobs taken from software.

My issue is that I am more of a jack of all trades with backgrounds in communication, business and data science, but I am a master of none, not having completed four years of a journalism program like I had originally intended, getting a business degree and getting a data science graduate degree to get some updated skills, especially since my employer paid 4/5ths of it and I’m not sure the MBA would have been much better.

I am drawn to learning to code in Python and because SQL comes with a data analyst job description, I will learn that too. I also have an interest in JavaScript since web development appears to still have a good outlook. If I lose my next job because of automation, I have thought about nursing or some sort of informatics career since I don’t consider nursing to being threatened by anything. I guess I would tell my future kids to focus on majoring in a profession in demand instead of something general to protect your economic future.

 

Thanks for sharing!

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/what-matters-march-16/index.html

Millennials -- In particular, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coronavirus task force coordinator, appealed to millennials, telling the largest current generation of Americans that they need to shield older generations more susceptible to the virus. "We now need to appeal to every single American so that they can have their role in stopping this virus," she said, before singling out millennials as the "core group who can stop this virus" by avoiding public contact.

A history of sacrifice -- Americans were called on to serve and work in the national interest when the country mobilized for the war effort in World War II.

Americans turned against service in Vietnam when the cost became too great. More recently, after 9/11, they were asked to go out and buy things to prop up a flailing economy.

They're not asked to do much anymore. But now, with a global pandemic threatening older Americans, fighting the enemy requires a collective isolation from generations that have social hard-wired into their DNA. "We've always heard about the Greatest Generation," Birx said. "We're protecting the Greatest Generation right now and the children of the Greatest Generation." (Yes, that would be the boomers, of which Birx is one.)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html

Informative article, really puts it all in proper perspective when comparing Italy and South Korea with well-researched supporting details. 

By contrast, the outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases. 

Then there is gender. The gender split in COVID-19 cases worldwide is about 50-50, but there are gender differences in survival.  According to data from the original outbreak in China, the overall death rate is 4.7% in men versus 2.8% in women -- a whopping difference. Which is good news for South Korea, where 62% of cases occur among women. 

Smoking is another factor clearly associated with poor survival. Smoking rates are about the same between the two countries: 24% for Italians and 27% for South Koreans. But gender differences among smokers are widely different: In Italy, 28% of men versus 20% of women smoke, while in Korea, it is about 50% of men and less than 5% (!) of women.

.....

In other words, South Korea has an outbreak among youngish, non-smoking women, whereas Italy's disease is occurring among the old and the very old, many of whom are smokers. (We do not know the male-female breakdown of Italy's cases). 

These basic demographic distinctions explain the difference in death rates between these two hard-hit countries -- as well as helping to explain why Seattle, with its nursing home outbreak, accounts for such a large proportion of US coronavirus deaths. 

To understand exactly what is happening, we need daily case updates to include information about age and sex.

The blundering lack of an effective testing program in the US is an unconscionable failure and has led (and will lead) to more transmission of COVID-19.

But it is important to recognize that survival with the infection is a completely other matter, one that will require very different investments, training, and expertise.

 

[Middle Buffalo]

9 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I have severe anxiety and not being sure if you're having a panic attack or trouble breathing is serious at this time. 

I have pretty bad dust/grass/weed allergies, but I had to take care of my yard this weekend. Now, I have a sore throat, cough, and chest congestion. Not exactly the best time for those symptoms, but it’s typical for when I do a lot of yard work. As long as I don’t get a fever...

[StrangeSox]

Potentially some good news, at least for the northern hemisphere

 

 

[Jack Parkman]

41 minutes ago, Middle Buffalo said:

I have pretty bad dust/grass/weed allergies, but I had to take care of my yard this weekend. Now, I have a sore throat, cough, and chest congestion. Not exactly the best time for those symptoms, but it’s typical for when I do a lot of yard work. As long as I don’t get a fever...

Me too.......idk what to do when you don't know whether or not it's other shit or corona. 

 

I think the fever is the key. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[mqr]

35 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Potentially some good news, at least for the northern hemisphere

 

 

Keep in mind the spanish flu didn't really get cooking until after it died down in the summer

[Bob Sacamano]

38 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Me too.......idk what to do when you don't know whether or not it's other shit or corona. 

 

I think the fever is the key. 

If you think you have the symptoms but its not that bad, just stay in. You will live.

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

If you think you have the symptoms but its not that bad, just stay in. You will live.

I'm using prescription/OTC drugs to determine whether or not I'm having symptoms. 

Can I breathe after I take xanax?

If I take allergy meds, does my stuffy nose and headache go away? 

If the answer is yes, proceed as usual

If the answer is no, call my doctor. 

That's how I'm handling it. 

The other thing is that I'm prone to getting dehydrated as during times of stress and anxiety I forget to drink fluids. 

so that leads to dry mouth/sore throat and headaches as well. I'm trying to watch myself on that. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[hi8is]

1 hour ago, soxfan2014 said:

If you think you have the symptoms but its not that bad, just stay in. You will live.

Jack has said earlier in this thread he has other medical conditions that are making this a though time for him beyond logic.

But he’s right Jack, you’re good brother.

[Panerista]

2 hours ago, mqr said:

Keep in mind the spanish flu didn't really get cooking until after it died down in the summer

Yeah, but there was so much less we could do as a society in 1918. In 1918, you went to the hospital to die. I'll take any good news as good news for now.

[mqr]

1 minute ago, Eloy Jiménez said:

Yeah, but there was so much less we could do as a society in 1918. In 1918, you went to the hospital to die. I'll take any good news as good news for now.

And I guess it helps we don't have a mostly pointless global cataclysm ON TOP of the pandemic

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, mqr said:

And I guess it helps we don't have a mostly pointless global cataclysm ON TOP of the pandemic

Please don't jinx us. 

[black jack]

14 minutes ago, Eloy Jiménez said:

Yeah, but there was so much less we could do as a society in 1918. In 1918, you went to the hospital to die. I'll take any good news as good news for now.

If nothing else it buys time for more preparation. 

[southsideirish71]

On 3/16/2020 at 10:45 AM, southsider2k5 said:

The internet load isn't going to change.  It is going to be redistributed from workplaces to homes.

This isn't even close to being true.  For most companies they have private connectivity between their locations and datacenters/cloud providers.  Its typically dedicated and not using a shared medium like the internet.  The service providers peering links and inter-connects are under massive stress right now.  Most companies build out for about 35% max utilization for remote services.  Now you have taken their entire population and have popped them off at home.  So besides the obvious remote access connection bandwidth, you have remote meetings, people are going to binge more Netflix/hulu/etc, and of course game.  I have been pretty busy building out capacity over the last week to keep up with demand.  The internet is built around a best-effort model.  Its not built like your enterprise wan at your company.  Nanog has been talking about this since we have seen the network traffic invert.

Edited March 17, 2020 by southsideirish71

[Dick Allen]

Still  less than 21k tests have been performed in the US. 

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-uk-model-study/index.html
 

(CNN)A study by UK epidemiologists predicts that attempts to slow, or mitigate -- rather than actively halt, or suppress -- the novel coronavirus could overwhelm the number of intensive care hospital beds and lead to about 250,000 deaths in the UK and more than a million in the United States during the course of the current pandemic.

 

They also predicted very early in January 100-150,000 cases in China, which probably would have happened if not for the full lockdown.